Yen Steadies as Intervention Boost Fades and the RBA Held at 4.35% While Tokyo Stays Shut for Mountain Day | Technical Analysis – Asian Session | 11-08-2026
Yen Steadies as Intervention Boost Fades and the RBA Held at 4.35% While Tokyo Stays Shut for Mountain Day
USD/JPY · NZD/USD · Aluminium · Wheat · Nikkei 225 · Cardano · Dogecoin — live coverage through the Asian trading day
“A Yen that stops falling is not the same as a Yen that starts rising — intervention bought time, not a trend, and the market knows the difference.”
Tuesday’s Asian session opens with the Japanese Yen stabilising after Monday’s sharp decline, as the fading impact of the coordinated US-Japan intervention from late July leaves USD/JPY parked near 158.90–159.00, still well shy of last week’s three-month high of 155.20 but also a long way from the 40-year high of 163.99 that triggered the original intervention. Reports that the Bank of Japan could raise rates again as soon as the 17–18 September meeting are lending the Yen some support, even as wide US-Japan rate differentials continue to work against it. Elsewhere in FX, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% for a second straight meeting, broadly as the market had priced, while shifting its language to flag inflation risks as more one-sided to the upside rather than balanced both ways. That backdrop, combined with Friday’s shock 23,000 US payrolls contraction and the associated pullback in Fed hike odds to roughly 42–44% for September, is keeping the New Zealand Dollar buoyant near 0.5892, within reach of its own two-month high of 0.5902, as traders increasingly price a Reserve Bank of New Zealand hike at next month’s meeting. Japan’s cash equity market, including the Nikkei 225, is closed today for the Mountain Day holiday, leaving Monday’s record-approaching close of 66,970.22 — a 2.08% surge led by chipmakers and AI-linked names — as the reference point until Wednesday’s re-open, with only thin futures trade offering a read on direction in the interim.
In commodities, Aluminium is holding close to a seven-week high near $3,314 a tonne, supported by a 6.7% year-on-year drop in ex-China output, reduced Middle Eastern smelter run rates, and LME warehouse stocks at their lowest level this century, a squeeze reinforced by the continued disruption to Persian Gulf supply chains from the unresolved Strait of Hormuz standoff. Wheat is consolidating near $6.49 a bushel, up from Monday’s $6.39 close, as Turkey’s temporary suspension of Black Sea transit for its vessels and Ukraine’s warning of constrained alternative export routes keep a supply-risk premium in the market ahead of Wednesday’s USDA WASDE report, even as improving US spring wheat crop conditions cap the upside. In digital assets, Bitcoin is holding near $64,000 in thin, fear-dominated trade after the weekend’s Coldcard wallet exploit and continued Strategy treasury sales, with Cardano trading near $0.196 as it becomes eligible for a spot ETF listing following six months of CME futures trading, and Dogecoin pinned near $0.070 in a tight Bollinger Band squeeze that traders expect to resolve with a sharp directional move. The decisive variable for the remainder of the Asian session is whether the Dollar’s post-payrolls softness can hold up against renewed Hormuz-linked haven demand, with Wednesday’s US CPI print now the market’s next major catalyst.
Asian Session News Flow
The stories moving USD/JPY, NZD/USD, Aluminium, Wheat, Nikkei 225, Cardano and Dogecoin this session
Asian Session Economic Calendar — 11 August 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through the Asian trading day (times in JST/AEST unless noted)
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇳🇰2:30 PM AEST | RBA Cash Rate Decision | Held at 4.35%; forward guidance leans more hawkish | 🔴 CRITICAL | AUD little changed; keeps a further 2026 hike on the table |
| 🇵🇵All Day | Tokyo Stock Exchange Closed — Mountain Day | Nikkei 225 cash market shut; only futures trade | 🟢 MEDIUM | Thin liquidity; Monday’s 66,970 close is the reference level |
| 🇮🇷Ongoing | Iran Denies Direct Hormuz Talks With US | Tehran demands blockade end, sanctions relief, compensation | 🔴 CRITICAL | Underpins residual Dollar and commodity haven demand |
| 🇳🇰This Week | BoJ September Rate-Hike Speculation | Sources say a hike is possible at the 17–18 Sept meeting | 🟢 MEDIUM | Lending the Yen incremental support against further USD/JPY upside |
| 🇺🇸Wed 12 Aug | US CPI (July) | Headline and core inflation the key input for Sept Fed path | 🔴 CRITICAL | Single most important data point of the week for rate-hike odds |
| 🇺🇸Wed 12 Aug | USDA WASDE Crop Production Report | Updated wheat, corn and soybean production estimates | 🔴 CRITICAL | Key swing factor for Wheat direction into Wednesday |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | CME FedWatch September Hike Pricing | Markets assign roughly 42–44% probability to a 25bp hike | 🔴 CRITICAL | Down sharply from ~67% a week ago after Friday’s payrolls miss |
| ₿Ongoing | Cardano Spot ETF Eligibility & Grayscale Decision | ADA ETF-eligible from Aug 9; Grayscale decision due Oct 23 | 🟢 MEDIUM | Structural medium-term tailwind for ADA despite soft spot price |
| 🇦🇲Ongoing | China 45-Million-Tonne Aluminium Production Cap | Cap tightening further in 2026 amid ex-China supply losses | 🟢 MEDIUM | Reinforcing the supply squeeze supporting Aluminium prices |
Asian Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s seven key instruments
USD/JPY
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/JPY is steadying near 158.90 after Monday’s near-1% rebound faded, as the impact of late July’s coordinated US-Japan intervention continues to wear off. Reports that the BoJ could hike again as soon as September offer the Yen some support, but wide US-Japan rate differentials and safe-haven Dollar demand tied to the Hormuz standoff keep the broader uptrend intact.
Technical Outlook
The pair is holding within an ascending channel from the August 3 lows near 155.23. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near 158.65 has capped rallies and now acts as first support; a clean break lower opens a path toward 157.40, while a recovery through the channel top near 159.25 would target the 61.8% retracement at 160.64, close to the July 31 highs near 160.90.
NZD/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
NZD/USD is holding near 0.5892, within reach of its 0.5902 two-month high, supported by the broader Dollar pullback after Friday’s shock payrolls contraction and growing bets that the RBNZ will hike next month. The RBA’s steady-as-expected hold at 4.35% has kept the broader Australasian rate backdrop calm rather than derailing the kiwi’s momentum.
Technical Outlook
Price is consolidating inside a bull-flag structure following its strong impulsive rally off the early-August lows. A pivot near 0.5836 has acted as support-turned-resistance-turned-support; a break above 0.5902 opens a path toward the 0.5980 continuation target, while a slip below 0.5766 would risk a deeper pullback toward 0.5720.
Aluminium
Fundamental Backdrop
Aluminium is holding near $3,314 a tonne, close to a seven-week high, as ex-China output fell 6.7% year-on-year in July on reduced Middle Eastern smelter run rates and Alcoa’s cut to its production forecast. LME warehouse stocks have dropped to their lowest level this century, a squeeze reinforced by China’s tightening 45-million-tonne production cap and Hormuz-linked disruption to Gulf supply chains, which account for roughly 9% of global supply.
Technical Outlook
The metal has rebounded firmly off its four-month low near $3,085 struck in July. A break above the recent seven-week high near $3,320–$3,337 would open a path toward $3,420, while planned capacity restarts in Slovakia and Missouri are a source of two-way risk that could cap gains if they materialise faster than expected.
Wheat
Fundamental Backdrop
Wheat is trading near $6.49 a bushel, holding above the four-week low touched on August 6, as Turkey’s temporary suspension of Black Sea transit for its vessels and Ukraine’s warning of export capacity constrained to roughly half of typical Black Sea volumes keep a supply-risk premium in the market. Improving US spring wheat crop conditions, with the good-to-excellent rating rising to 55%, are a partial offset ahead of Wednesday’s WASDE report.
Technical Outlook
Price is consolidating just above the recent four-week low, with the September CBOT contract holding above the 631–640 area. A hold above $6.35 keeps the recovery intact toward $6.85, while a sharply bearish WASDE surprise on crop production could open a retest of the $6.15 support zone.
Nikkei 225
Fundamental Backdrop
Japan’s cash equity market is closed today for the Mountain Day public holiday, leaving Monday’s close of 66,970.22 — up 2.08% and led by chipmakers Fujikura, Advantest, Ibiden and Tokyo Electron alongside Recruit Holdings and Sumitomo Metal Mining — as the active reference level. The rally tracked Wall Street higher after Friday’s weak US jobs data curbed near-term Fed hike bets, though reports the BoJ could hike in September are a source of two-way risk for Yen-sensitive exporters within the index.
Technical Outlook
With the cash market shut, only thin CME and Osaka Exchange futures activity is available for a directional read. The index remains within a few thousand points of its 52-week high near 72,832; a resumption of Wednesday’s trade above 66,000 would keep the path toward 68,500 open, while a break back below 65,150 would risk a retest of last week’s lows near 64,650.
Cardano (ADA)
Fundamental Backdrop
Cardano is trading near $0.196, softer on the session in line with a broadly fear-dominated crypto tone, but the token became eligible for a spot ETF listing on August 9 after completing six months of CME futures trading, with a Grayscale Cardano ETF decision from the SEC due by October 23. Input Output’s plan to transfer Cardano’s core infrastructure to independent teams starting this month is an additional medium-term structural theme.
Technical Outlook
ADA remains range-bound between roughly $0.166 and $0.201 in recent weeks. A hold above the $0.185 support zone keeps the path open toward $0.201 and then the $0.220 area on a confirmed break, while a slip below $0.174 would risk a retest of the $0.166 monthly low.
Dogecoin (DOGE)
Fundamental Backdrop
Dogecoin is trading near $0.0698, largely rangebound between $0.0692 and $0.0708 over the past 24 hours, with the Fear & Greed Index reading in “Extreme Fear” territory and Bitcoin dominance holding near 57%, leaving altcoins with little margin for error. RSI14 near 40 and a flat MACD point to a momentum vacuum rather than an imminent breakout in either direction.
Technical Outlook
Bollinger Bands are pinched tightly across timeframes, with ATR14 near zero signalling a volatility squeeze that traders expect to resolve with a sharp move. A confirmed break and hold above $0.0740 would open a path toward $0.0820, while a break below $0.0670 would risk a slide back toward the $0.0620 area.
Asian Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Why is USD/JPY steadying instead of resuming its slide after Monday’s intervention-fade drop?
Why did the RBA hold rates, and what does it mean for NZD/USD?
Why is the Nikkei 225 not trading today?
Why is Aluminium near a seven-week high while other industrial metals are quieter?
Why is Dogecoin trading so quietly compared to its usual volatility?
Asian Session Summary — Tuesday, 11 August 2026 (Live Update)
Tuesday’s Asian session is being shaped by a market in transition between last week’s dovish Fed repricing and this week’s incoming inflation data: the Yen is steadying near 158.90 per Dollar as the boost from late July’s coordinated US-Japan intervention fades, while the Reserve Bank of Australia’s as-expected hold at 4.35% and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s looming September decision are keeping the New Zealand Dollar buoyant near a two-month high around 0.5892. Japan’s cash equity market, including the Nikkei 225, is closed for the Mountain Day holiday, leaving Monday’s 2.08% surge to 66,970.22 as the active reference level until Wednesday’s re-open. In commodities, Aluminium is holding near a seven-week high around $3,314 a tonne on a genuine multi-driver supply squeeze spanning China’s production cap, Middle Eastern smelter outages and record-low LME stocks, while Wheat is firming toward $6.49 a bushel ahead of Wednesday’s pivotal USDA WASDE report. In digital assets, Bitcoin’s hold near $64,000 amid thin, fear-dominated conditions is anchoring a quiet session for Cardano near $0.196, even as its new spot ETF eligibility offers a medium-term structural tailwind, while Dogecoin sits pinned near $0.070 in a volatility squeeze that traders expect to resolve directionally before long. Highest-conviction session idea: buy Aluminium dips toward $3,260, targeting $3,420 — the combination of China’s tightening supply cap, Middle East smelter outages and multi-decade-low LME stocks is a powerful multi-driver tailwind, though faster-than-expected capacity restarts in Slovakia and Missouri are a genuine source of two-way risk.
For the individual instruments: USD/JPY buy dips toward 158.20, stop 157.40, target 160.60 — fading intervention effects and US-Japan rate differentials are a genuine tailwind, though BoJ September hike speculation is a real source of two-way risk. NZD/USD buy dips toward 0.5850, stop 0.5795, target 0.5980 — broad Dollar softness and RBNZ hike bets are genuine tailwinds, though a hawkish CPI surprise on Wednesday could spark a reversal. Aluminium buy dips toward $3,260, stop $3,190, target $3,420 — the multi-driver supply squeeze is a genuine tailwind, though planned capacity restarts are a real source of two-way risk. Wheat buy dips toward $6.35, stop $6.15, target $6.85 — Black Sea and Hormuz-linked supply risk is a genuine tailwind, though a bearish WASDE surprise on Wednesday is a real source of two-way risk. Nikkei 225 buy dips toward 66,000, stop 65,150, target 68,500 on Wednesday’s re-open — resilient risk appetite and AI-linked strength are genuine tailwinds, though the market’s holiday closure keeps near-term positioning thin. Cardano buy dips toward $0.185, stop $0.174, target $0.220 — new spot ETF eligibility is a genuine structural tailwind, though broader risk-off crypto positioning is a real source of two-way risk. Dogecoin await a confirmed break of the $0.0670–$0.0740 range before committing directionally — the volatility squeeze could resolve either way, making this a breakout-confirmation setup rather than a conviction call. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are how markets digest today’s RBA guidance and the Mountain Day-driven lull in Japanese equities, with Wednesday’s US CPI print and USDA WASDE report the next major catalysts. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s backdrop carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply into Wednesday’s data.
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