Daily chart with Fibonacci retracements, Moving Averages & momentum indicators
📊 UK 100 INDEX · DAILY · FTSE · WITH FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS & MAs
Chart: FTSE 100 (UKX) · 1D · FTSE Russell · Source: CSFX-Research via TradingView | Fib levels from 10,712.33 high to 9,669.80 low. Price currently at 10,428.25 — between 0.236 (10,466) and 0.382 (10,382) Fibonacci retracement zones. MAs are converging — bearish signal.
The FTSE 100 is currently trading at 10,428.25, caught in a critical technical zone between the 0.236 Fib — 10,466 resistance and the 0.382 Fib — 10,382 support. Price action over the past 24 hours has been indecisive, reflecting the conflicting forces of weak domestic data and moderate global risk appetite.
Looking at the Fibonacci retracement grid drawn from the February 2026 high of 10,712.33 to the March 2026 low of 9,669.80, the index has repeatedly found sellers emerging near the 0.236 level (10,466). A sustained breach above this level is required for any meaningful FTSE 100 recovery. Until then, the path of least resistance remains lower, targeting the 0.5 retracement at 10,191.
The moving average picture further reinforces the bearish FTSE 100 technical outlook: the 20-day MA (approximately 10,396) is providing immediate overhead resistance, while the 50-day MA (approximately 10,386) has recently crossed below the 20-day MA — a bearish signal. Price is sitting precariously just above this MA cluster, and any daily close beneath 10,380 would signal fresh breakdown potential.
ATH (Feb)10,712
0.236 — RESIST10,466
0.382 — KEY SUPP10,382
0.500 — TARGET10,191
0.61810,068
1.000 (Base)9,669
Indicator
Value
Signal
Interpretation
20-Day MA
~10,396
Bearish
Price below, acting as resistance
50-Day MA
~10,386
Bearish
Below 20-day MA — bearish crossover forming
200-Day MA
~10,395
Bearish
Price trading below 200-day MA cluster
RSI (14)
~42
Neutral
Approaching oversold; not yet at reversal zone
MACD
Negative
Bearish
Bearish crossover; histogram turning negative
Fib 0.236
10,466
Resistance
Price failed multiple times here; key sell zone
Fib 0.382
10,382
Support
Near-term demand zone; close watch for break
Fib 0.500
10,191
Target
Primary downside target if 0.382 breaks
Ascending Channel
Active
Bullish
Price near lower trendline — potential bounce
Fundamental Drivers
Key News Impacting FTSE 100 Today
Critical macro and geopolitical catalysts for the next 24 hours — sourced from Reuters, Bloomberg, Investing.com
⚠ HIGH IMPACT — BEARISH
UK Flash PMI Hits 14-Month Low at 49.4
The S&P Global Flash UK Composite PMI dropped to 49.4 in June — a 14-month low — signalling a second consecutive month of private sector contraction. Services PMI collapsed to 48.7, a 41-month low, as Middle East war costs and political uncertainty crushed confidence. Manufacturing PMI offered a partial offset at 53.1.
PMI · CONTRACTION
⚠ HIGH IMPACT — BEARISH
PM Keir Starmer Resigns — Leadership Vacuum
Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned on June 22, 2026, triggering an immediate Labour leadership contest. Speculation centres on Andy Burnham as successor. Markets are assessing what a Burnham government means for fiscal policy, infrastructure spending, and gilt sustainability. The identity of the next Chancellor is seen as the critical signal for FTSE 100 direction.
Copper miners led the FTSE 100 lower on June 23, with Antofagasta falling 5.2% and Anglo American declining 4.2%. Fresnillo and Endeavour Mining dropped 5% and 2.4% respectively. The selloff reflects declining commodity prices, a strengthening US dollar, worsening UK manufacturing orders, and China demand softness weighing on the metals complex.
MINING · COMMODITIES
HIGH IMPACT — BEARISH
Fed Hawkishness Under Kevin Warsh Weighs on Global Risk
The Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh continues to maintain a hawkish policy stance, suppressing global risk appetite and pressuring internationally exposed FTSE 100 companies. Rising US Treasury yields create structural headwinds for equity valuations globally, including FTSE 100 financials and energy majors Shell and BP.
FED · MACRO
MED IMPACT — BULLISH
Bunzl +5.6% After Revenue Upgrade; M&S +2.5%
Bunzl outperformed the FTSE 100 sharply, rising 5.6% after upgrading its 2026 revenue growth outlook backed by a North America turnaround. Marks & Spencer rose 2.5% and Babcock International gained 2.9%, providing selective upside in defensives and consumer sectors that cushioned the broader FTSE 100 decline.
EARNINGS · BULLISH
MED IMPACT — NEUTRAL
Iran Diplomacy Progress — Partial Risk Relief
US-Iran diplomatic progress has provided some relief to energy supply concerns, with WTI crude trading around $73.32/barrel. However, the conflict remains ongoing and continues to drive elevated energy costs for UK businesses — directly referenced in UK PMI surveys as a key pressure on services sector margins and input costs.
GEOPOLITICS
Event Calendar
Key Events — Next 24 Hours (June 24, 2026)
Scheduled events that may cause additional FTSE 100 volatility
07:00 BSTHIGH
UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Jun)
Previous -41%; June reading collapsed to -45%, weakest since 2020. Any further deterioration amplifies bearish FTSE 100 momentum.
09:30 BSTHIGH
UK Labour Leadership Speculation / Burnham Speech
Any economic policy announcement from likely successor Andy Burnham would have immediate gilt and FTSE 100 impact, particularly regarding fiscal stance and BoE independence.
13:30 BSTHIGH
US Durable Goods Orders & Micron Earnings (After Close)
Micron earnings will set the tone for global AI/semiconductor sentiment, directly impacting Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and tech-adjacent FTSE 100 holdings. Weak results could trigger another FTSE 100 tech selloff.
15:00 BSTMEDIUM
US CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)
Weak US confidence data would reinforce global risk-off, weighing on FTSE 100 energy and financial stocks.
All DayMEDIUM
EU MiCA Regulation Deadline Approach (Jul 1)
Financial services companies and crypto-exposed FTSE 100 constituents remain on watch as the EU MiCA compliance deadline approaches July 1, 2026, creating sector-specific volatility.
Trade Setup
FTSE 100 Trade Setup — June 24, 2026
Entry, Stop Loss, and Take Profit levels based on 24-hour technical and fundamental analysis
UK 100 (FTSE 100 CFD)
10,428.25
▼ -0.01% on day · Bearish bias for 24H
⬇ BEARISH BIAS
PRIMARY SETUP — SHORT (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
The primary FTSE 100 trade setup for June 24, 2026 is a SHORT position targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at 10,191. Price has repeatedly failed to close above the 0.236 Fib resistance at 10,466. The combination of bearish UK PMI, political leadership vacuum post-Starmer, mining sector weakness, and bearish MACD crossover all support further downside. A rally toward 10,430–10,450 provides the optimal FTSE 100 short entry.
Entry Zone
10,430 – 10,450
On retest of 20MA / 0.236 Fib resistance cluster
Stop Loss
10,520
Above 0.236 Fib breakout zone + MA cluster
Take Profit 1
10,382
0.382 Fib — initial target
Take Profit 2
10,191
0.5 Fib — primary target
Take Profit 3
10,068
0.618 Fib — extended target if PMI deteriorates further
Risk/Reward
~1 : 2.8
Based on entry 10,440 / SL 10,520 / TP 10,191
BiasBEARISH
RSI Status~42 NEUTRAL
MACDBEARISH X
Key Resistance10,466
Key Support10,382
ConfidenceHIGH
ALTERNATIVE SETUP — LONG (CONDITIONAL)
If the FTSE 100 breaks and holds above 10,480 on a 4-hour close — invalidating the bearish bias — a long trade targeting the previous swing high at 10,600 and ultimately 10,712 (February high) becomes viable. This scenario requires a positive development from UK political leadership (clear pro-growth chancellor) or a significant US-Iran peace breakthrough. Entry on pullback to 10,460, Stop at 10,390, Target 10,600 (R/R ~1:2).
RISK FACTORS TO MONITOR
1. Micron Earnings (post-US market close): A strong Micron result could lift global tech sentiment overnight, reducing selling pressure on FTSE 100 tech-exposed names including Scottish Mortgage and Polar Capital.
2. UK Leadership Announcement: Any swift, market-friendly confirmation of leadership succession and fiscal direction could rapidly reverse bearish sentiment.
3. GBP/USD: Sterling at 1.3189 is under pressure. A further GBP decline paradoxically supports FTSE 100 multinationals (who earn in dollars) but signals wider UK economic stress.
Frequently Asked Questions
FTSE 100 FAQ — June 24, 2026
Common questions about FTSE 100 market outlook and trade setup for today
What is driving the FTSE 100 lower today?
The FTSE 100 is under pressure from four converging bearish factors: (1) UK Flash Composite PMI falling to a 14-month low of 49.4, signalling economic contraction; (2) Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation creating political and fiscal policy uncertainty; (3) a global mining sector selloff with copper stocks Antofagasta and Anglo American falling over 4–5%; and (4) global tech weakness rippling through Scottish Mortgage and other tech-exposed FTSE 100 holdings.
What are the key FTSE 100 support and resistance levels for today?
Key FTSE 100 resistance levels: 10,466 (0.236 Fibonacci), 10,520 (above MA cluster), and 10,600. Key support levels: 10,382 (0.382 Fib), 10,191 (0.5 Fib), and 10,068 (0.618 Fib). The MA cluster around 10,385–10,400 (20-day and 50-day MAs converging) is the most critical near-term pivot.
Does Keir Starmer’s resignation affect the FTSE 100?
Yes, significantly. The resignation creates uncertainty around UK fiscal policy — particularly government spending plans, gilt issuance, and the Bank of England’s relationship with the government. Gilt yields have risen in response. The FTSE 100 is most sensitive to political uncertainty through its financial sector stocks and domestically exposed mid-cap components that trade on economic confidence. Markets will closely watch the appointment of the new Chancellor of the Exchequer as the key signal.
What is the best FTSE 100 trade setup for June 24, 2026?
Based on current technical and fundamental analysis, a SHORT on FTSE 100 CFD with entry at 10,430–10,450, stop loss at 10,520, and take profit targets at 10,382 (TP1), 10,191 (TP2), and 10,068 (TP3) offers a favourable risk/reward of approximately 1:2.8. The bearish setup aligns with weak UK PMI, political uncertainty, bearish MACD, and price rejection at the 0.236 Fibonacci resistance. Always manage risk appropriately and use a demo account to practise before live trading.
How does UK PMI data impact FTSE 100 trading?
UK PMI data is a leading economic indicator that gives markets an early read on economic health. When the Composite PMI is below 50 — as in June 2026 at 49.4 — it signals economic contraction, which typically leads to: reduced earnings expectations for domestically-focused FTSE 100 companies; expectations for Bank of England rate cuts (short-term positive for equities, but signals weakness); and GBP selling pressure, which is a mixed FTSE 100 signal since many index constituents earn revenues in foreign currencies.
Where can I get live FTSE 100 analysis and trade signals?
Capital Street FX provides live FTSE 100 analysis, daily market outlooks, and trade setups. Visit capitalstreetfx.com for real-time research, Asian session briefs, and multi-asset trade setups covering FTSE 100, forex, commodities, and crypto. Risk warning: Trading CFDs involves significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.
Conclusion
FTSE 100 Summary for June 24, 2026
The FTSE 100 enters June 24, 2026 with a distinctly bearish short-term bias, navigating a perfect storm of domestic and global headwinds. The UK Flash Composite PMI at 49.4 — a 14-month low — has confirmed a second consecutive month of economic contraction, eliminating any near-term hopes of a data-driven FTSE 100 rally. The collapse in services activity to a 41-month low is particularly alarming given that the UK economy is primarily services-driven.
The resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer has added a political risk premium to UK equities that could persist for weeks. The new leadership’s economic agenda — particularly regarding fiscal discipline and borrowing — will be the critical variable for gilt markets and, by extension, FTSE 100 valuation multiples. The mining sector’s brutal two-day selloff, led by Antofagasta (-5.2%) and Anglo American (-4.2%), has further dragged the index lower given its significant commodity exposure.
Technically, the FTSE 100 remains sandwiched between the 10,382 support (0.382 Fib) and 10,466 resistance (0.236 Fib). The bearish MACD crossover and price trading below the converging MA cluster make the short trade the higher-probability setup. The primary FTSE 100 trade setup for today: Short at 10,430–10,450 | Stop 10,520 | TP 10,191.
⚠ This FTSE 100 market outlook is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. CFD trading involves significant risk. Visit Capital Street FX for full risk disclosures.
