S&P 500 Today: Bulls Hold 7,689 After a 1.58% Midterm Surge, but a Chip Rout and a Bank of England Hike Test the 7,700 Ceiling | Marekt Outlook | 05 Nov 2026
Market in Focus | S&P 500 | Thursday 5 November 2026
S&P 500 Today: Bulls Hold 7,689 After a 1.58% Midterm Surge, but a Chip Rout and a Bank of England Hike Test the 7,700 Ceiling
7,688.62 +119.70 (+1.58%) Open 7,635.81 · High 7,715.57 · Low 7,635.81 Daily chart · RSI 50.44 · Captured 06:48 GMT
Desk bias, next 24 hours Neutral Range 7,622–7,716, upside tilt while 7,622 holds; bearish on a daily close below 7,600
Market Overview
The S&P 500 is fighting for its next leg after the second-biggest post-midterm day since 1982. Wednesday’s 1.58% surge to 7,688.62 came as Democrats swept Congress, Brent crude collapsed 8.7% and the 10-year yield sank to a two-month low near 4.88%. Under the surface it was a rotation: the equal-weight index hit a record and 375 of 500 stocks rose, while chipmakers and data-centre names were sold hard. That split is the story today. Arm and Qualcomm guidance has Nasdaq-100 futures down roughly 0.7–1.1% and KOSPI fell 4.8%, yet S&P 500 futures have clawed back to about 7,705, off only 0.1–0.2%, because defensive and value stocks are absorbing the shock. Price now sits $4–11 under the 7,693–7,700 averages, 1.7% below the 7,818.93 record, with an 82% chance of a Fed hike on 9 December and a Bank of England rate rise due at 12:00 GMT. Bias is neutral with an upside tilt: a dip into 7,640–7,660 is a buy with a stop below 7,600 and a first target at 7,716, while a daily close below 7,600 closes Wednesday’s gap and opens 7,569.
Key highlights
- Bias: Neutral with an upside tilt after a gap-up day; RSI 50.44 has crossed above its 46.62 average and just over the 50 line.
- Levels: Resistance 7,693–7,700, 7,716, 7,780 and 7,818.93; support 7,635.8, 7,622, 7,569 and 7,541.
- Drivers: Arm and Qualcomm guidance and the Nasdaq-100 futures slide; oil and Iran talks; Fed hike odds near 82%; Bank of England hike to 4% at 12:00 GMT; US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT; Wall Street open at 14:30 GMT; US payrolls Friday at 13:30 GMT.
S&P 500 Technical Summary: Price Presses the Fast Averages at 7,693–7,700 After the Midterm Gap
- Trend
- A rising channel from the late-July low near 7,300 has a floor near 7,500 and a ceiling near 7,980 (chart reads). Price is mid-channel after lower highs since the 6 October record of 7,818.93. Monday’s 7,541 close tested the lower half before Wednesday’s gap higher.
- Averages
- Price sits $4–11 under the two fast averages at 7,692.97 and 7,700.12 and $67 above the slower one at 7,622.05. The fast pair and Wednesday’s 7,715.57 high form a tight ceiling at 7,693–7,716; the rising slow average, just under Wednesday’s 7,635.81 low, is the first real floor.
- Momentum
- RSI 50.44 is above its 46.62 average and has just crossed 50, so selling pressure has eased. Holding above 50 keeps the bounce alive; a slip back under 46.62 would mark Wednesday as a one-day relief move.
Bull vs Bear Signal Board for the S&P 500
| Signal | Reading | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| Trend | Rising channel from the late-July low intact; price mid-channel, with lower highs since the 6 Oct record of 7,818.93 | Neutral |
| Moving averages | Just under 7,692.97 and 7,700.12, above the slower 7,622.05 | Neutral |
| Momentum | RSI 50.44, above its 46.62 average and just back over 50 | Bullish |
| Daily candle | Gapped up from 7,568.92 to open at 7,635.81, closed 7,688.62 near the 7,715.57 high | Bullish |
| Breadth | Equal-weight S&P 500 closed at a record; 375 of 500 stocks rose | Bullish |
| AI and chips | Nasdaq-100 entered a correction on 2 Nov; futures down about 1.3% after Arm and Qualcomm guidance | Bearish |
| Oil and yields | Brent fell 8.7% to 94.62; 10-year yield down 8 bp to 4.88%, a two-month low | Bullish |
| Fed | About 82% odds of a 9 Dec hike; 53 bp of hikes priced through Dec 2027 | Bearish |
| Labour data | Jobless claims today, payrolls Friday; a hot print would lift hike odds, a soft one would ease them | Neutral |
| Geopolitics | Iran talks hopeful but far from a deal; tanker incidents still reported | Neutral |
Net score: 4 bullish, 4 neutral, 2 bearish
Next 24 Hours on the GMT Clock
Thu 5 Nov
Bank of England rate decision (25 bp hike to 4% expected; press conference 12:30 GMT) Medium
Markets expect the first hike since August 2023 on a roughly 7-2 vote, with about 100 bp priced by end-2027; a more hawkish tone would lift global yields and weigh on rate-sensitive stocks, a cautious one would help the bounce
Thu 5 Nov
US initial jobless claims (forecast 197K vs 194K), one hour before the Wall Street open High
A low print backs the 82% December hike odds and can cap the index; a jump would ease yields and support stocks. The 14:30 GMT open also tests the Arm and Qualcomm drag on Nasdaq futures
Fri 6 Nov
Asia open: Iran headlines, oil and chip names after hours Medium
A fifth day of falling oil would extend the relief rally; a tanker incident or a stalled Qatar-brokered effort could reverse it. Payrolls follow at 13:30 GMT Friday
Unscheduled Iran, oil and AI-regulation headlines can land at any hour. US payrolls (Friday, 13:30 GMT) and October CPI (10 November) fall outside this window. Release times are the standard ones; confirm on your calendar.
If-Then Playbook for the S&P 500
If price dips to 7,640–7,660 and the 7,622 average holds
Then go long; stop below 7,600; targets 7,716, 7,780, 7,819
If price runs straight to 7,693–7,716 without a dip
Then wait; both fast averages and Wednesday’s high sit here, so do not chase
If a 4-hour candle closes above 7,716 with RSI above 50
Then hold for 7,780, then the 7,818.93 record close and 7,844.52 intraday high
If the daily candle settles below 7,600
Then drop the long idea; Wednesday’s gap closes and 7,569, then 7,541 and the 7,500 channel floor, come into view
Catalyst Wire: Fundamental News for the S&P 500
Democrats sweep Congress; Dow posts its best day since April 2025
Reuters and CNBC report that Wall Street closed sharply higher as the decisive result removed election uncertainty and investors priced in gridlock. The Dow gained 3.03% to 53,356.12, the S&P 500 rose 1.58% to 7,688.62 and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.44% to 25,736.51. CNN notes it was the S&P 500’s second-biggest post-midterm day since 1982. The equal-weight index gained 1.9% to a record close, with 375 of 500 stocks higher.
Source: Reuters, CNBC, CNN, TheStreet, Bloomberg, 4 Nov 2026
Oil plunges 8% on Iran diplomacy hopes; fourth straight daily fall
Brent settled down $8.98, or 8.7%, at $94.62 and WTI fell 8.3% to $88.12, both the lowest since 31 August. Reuters says oil slipped for a fourth day on Thursday, with Brent near $93.65 and WTI near $86.98, on hopes the Republican losses reduce the risk of escalation. JPMorgan says resumed Gulf supply has put the market back in surplus, but a senior Iranian official told Reuters the two sides remain far from an agreement.
Source: Reuters, Investing.com, 4–5 Nov 2026
Arm and Qualcomm guidance drags Nasdaq-100 futures down about 1.3%
Investing.com reports that underwhelming results and guidance from Arm and Qualcomm renewed doubts over the AI trade. Nasdaq-100 futures fell 1.3% to 28,183.75 and S&P 500 futures fell 0.35% to 7,693.5 by 05:55 GMT. Later quotes showed S&P 500 futures recovering to about 7,705–7,710 (down 0.1–0.2%), Nasdaq-100 futures off roughly 0.7–1.1% and Dow futures up 0.2–0.4%, pointing to a rotation into defensive names. Arm fell about 5% in the main session and further after hours. South Korea’s KOSPI fell 4.8% in Asia on data-centre worries.
Source: Investing.com, Reuters Trading Day via Yahoo Finance, Benzinga, investingLive, 5 Nov 2026
The AI trade splits: megacaps rise, data-centre names sink
Reuters reports that Microsoft rose 6.7%, Amazon 6.1%, Alphabet 3.2% and Meta 1.4%, while Hut 8 fell 23%, IREN 11% and Core Scientific 10% after Democratic gains in Texas and Georgia raised fears of tighter data-centre rules. Bloomberg frames it as investors betting that slower AI spending helps cash-rich hyperscalers. The Nasdaq-100 entered a correction on 2 November, 10.4% below its 6 October record.
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, MarketWatch via KuCoin News, 2–4 Nov 2026
Yields hit a two-month low, but Fed hike bets stay near 82%
Reuters says Treasury yields fell to a two-month low as oil dropped; the 10-year slid about 8 basis points to 4.88%, with the 2-year near 4.58%. CME FedWatch, as cited by TheStreet, put the odds of a December hike at 82%, up from 79%, with 53 basis points of hikes priced through December 2027. Lower yields help valuations, but a firm labour market keeps the Fed on its hiking path.
Source: Reuters, CME FedWatch via TheStreet Pro, 4–5 Nov 2026
Bank of England expected to hike; labour data crowd the calendar
Reuters says sterling is near a seven-week high ahead of a Bank of England decision where a 25 bp rise to 4%, the first since August 2023, is widely expected as energy pushes UK inflation to 3.5%; rate futures price about 100 bp of tightening by the end of next year. Initial jobless claims are forecast at 197K (previous 194K) at 13:30 GMT, with the Challenger job-cuts report and October payrolls on Friday. Reuters also noted a big jump in September job openings, which supports hike expectations.
Source: Reuters, Investing.com, 4–5 Nov 2026
Conclusion
Desk verdict Buy the dip 7,640–7,660; stop below 7,600
We stay neutral inside 7,622–7,716 with an upside tilt, because the gap-up day, record equal-weight close, falling oil and lower yields outweigh the chip drag. We favour buying a dip into 7,640–7,660, where Wednesday’s open and the rising 7,622 average meet, aiming for 7,716 first and 7,780 next, risking about 50 points for 130 at the second target from the middle of the zone (2.6 to 1). A daily close below 7,600 cancels the idea and opens 7,569. A four-hour close above 7,716 with RSI over 50 would confirm the breakout and open 7,780 and the 7,818.93 record close. The main risks are a deeper Nasdaq-100 sell-off at the Wall Street open, a low jobless-claims print that lifts hike odds, a hawkish Bank of England, and an Iran setback that reverses the oil slide.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the S&P 500 outlook for the next 24 hours?
Neutral with an upside tilt between 7,622 and 7,716. Price closed Wednesday just under the fast averages at 7,693–7,700 and above the slower one at 7,622, so rallies meet sellers at 7,716 and a daily close below 7,600 would turn the bias bearish.
What is the S&P 500 trade setup today?
A buy-the-dip long in the 7,640–7,660 band, with a stop below 7,600 and targets at 7,716 and 7,780. From the middle of the zone that risks about 50 points for 130 at the second target, a ratio of about 2.6 to 1.
Why is the S&P 500 rising or falling today?
The index jumped 1.58% on Wednesday as the Democratic sweep brought gridlock hopes, oil fell 8% and yields dropped. Futures are slightly lower this morning because Arm and Qualcomm guidance hit chip stocks, Nasdaq-100 futures are down about 1.3%, and Fed hike odds sit near 82%.
What could move the S&P 500 this week?
The Bank of England today, US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT before the Wall Street open, October payrolls on Friday at 13:30 GMT, October CPI on 10 November, and any Iran or oil headline, plus the next move in AI and chip stocks.
