Weekly Technical Analysis

EUR/USD has rejected from the 1.1960 yearly high and is now in a descending structure on the weekly chart. The pair closed the week at 1.1602, below the key pivot at 1.1250 which acted as horizontal support from late April. A sustained close below 1.1250 confirms the next leg lower toward 1.1050 — the 50-week SMA confluence. The weekly RSI has dropped to 44, turning bearish without yet being oversold, suggesting room to extend the downside. The structure targets the 1.1000 psychological round number as the key medium-term support.

Fundamental Context

The EUR/USD bear case is a stagflation squeeze. Eurozone CPI printed at 3.0% for April — above ECB target — driven almost entirely by energy costs from the Iran conflict. Meanwhile, industrial output across Germany and the broader Eurozone is weakening. EUR/USD faces a structural headwind: the ECB must choose between hiking into a weakening economy (stagflation playbook) or staying on hold and watching inflation accelerate. Either scenario is euro-negative. The USD retains a safe-haven bid in this geopolitical environment and 10-year Treasury yields remain elevated, keeping the rate differential adverse for EUR. ECB meeting minutes and EU Flash PMI data (expected weak) are the key catalysts this week.

Weekly Technical Analysis

GBP/USD’s weekly chart shows a clear rejection from the 1.3634 multi-year high, with the pair now trading at 1.3435 — a weekly loss of 1.05%, the worst among G10 majors. The structure has broken the rising trendline from the March 2026 low, and the daily RSI has fallen to 38 — approaching oversold but not yet at an extreme that would trigger a mean-reversion bounce. The 20-week SMA at 1.3280 is the next support; below that, 1.3200 is a structurally significant level. A weekly close below 1.3280 would confirm the bear leg is extending toward 1.3100.

Fundamental Context

The UK political uncertainty is the key new headwind for GBP this week. Markets are pricing in governance risk premium as reports of internal Labour Party pressure on PM Starmer mount. The UK has had four prime ministers in a decade — this instability is now directly reflecting in a softer pound and rising gilt yields (10-year at 4.62%). The BoE is unlikely to move rates at next month’s meeting, removing the hawkish catalyst that had previously supported cable. UK CPI of 3.3% means rate cuts are off the table, but further hikes are also uncertain, leaving sterling in a no-man’s land of policy ambiguity. Any political resolution or fiscal clarity from HM Treasury could trigger a sharp GBP reversal — manage risk accordingly using appropriate leverage levels.

Weekly Technical Analysis

The FTSE 100 is trading at 10,466, having broken below the 10,280 support level that was the prior consolidation floor. The weekly candlestick shows a strong bearish body — a sign that sellers are in control. The 50-week SMA at approximately 10,050 is now the target. The weekly RSI has retreated to 41, confirming the shift in momentum. Key resistance on any rally this week sits at 10,280 (now resistance) and 10,420 (the 20-week SMA). A break below 10,050 opens the path to 9,850.

Fundamental Context

The FTSE 100 is caught between two opposing forces this week. The energy heavyweights — BP and Shell together representing ~18% of the index — benefit from $100+ WTI oil prices, providing a partial cushion. However, this is more than offset by the UK political risk premium re-entering gilt and equity markets, rising borrowing costs (10-year gilts at 4.62%), and the broader European risk-off driven by Iran fears. HSBC’s China exposure adds an EM tail risk. Investors should note that while energy helps the FTSE’s absolute level, a political crisis-driven risk premium selloff tends to overwhelm sector tailwinds. Access FTSE CFDs with tight spreads at Capital Street FX.

Weekly Technical Analysis

The DAX 40 broke below the key 23,670 support level intraweek, closing at 24,791.7. This is a structurally important break — the 23,670 zone was a key consolidation support from the prior three weeks. The weekly close below it confirms the next leg lower. The 20-week SMA at 23,100 is now the target. Weekly MACD has crossed bearish. RSI at 40 is declining but has room to extend toward 35 before a potential bounce zone. Resistance on any rally this week is at 23,670 (prior support flipped) and 23,950 (the 10-week SMA).

Fundamental Context

Germany is facing the worst combination of macro conditions in years: rising bond yields (Bund at 3.17%) compress equity valuations as a higher discount rate hits growth stocks; energy prices at four-year highs stoke input cost inflation; the Economics Ministry’s GDP growth forecast of 0.5% — already halved — looks optimistic if Iran tensions persist through Q2. Auto sector headwinds from EV transition costs and Trump tariff exposure on non-US manufacturing continue to weigh. DAX traders should watch Monday’s Eurozone and German Flash PMI data as the key weekly catalyst.

Weekly Technical & Fundamental

The CAC 40 was the worst performer among major European indices this week, falling 1.97% to 7,860. The French OAT 10-year yield approached 4.00% — the highest level since the Eurozone debt crisis era — and is now the most significant risk for CAC valuations. Rising French sovereign borrowing costs create a direct headwind for real estate and utility sectors, while the broader luxury stocks — LVMH, Hermès, Kering — face dual pressure: weaker China consumer data this week and a global risk-off environment that historically dampens luxury spending.

Technically, the weekly close at 7,860 has taken out the 7,900 support floor. The next key support is the 200-week SMA at approximately 7,680 — which aligns with the weekly take-profit target. On the upside, 7,930 is now resistance on any bounce, and 8,000–8,060 is a strong supply zone. TotalEnergies benefits from oil above $100, providing a partial offset to luxury and financials weakness. Watch EU/French industrial output data mid-week as a potential confirmation catalyst.

Weekly Technical Analysis

WTI crude is approaching the mid-March resistance band of $100.37–$102.44 on the weekly chart, having recovered strongly from the April 17 low at $78.97. The weekly RSI is at 67 — elevated but not yet overbought. A weekly close above $112 would be a major technical breakout; below that, $100.32 is the current equilibrium with short-term support at $103–105 (the prior consolidation range from the week of May 12–16). The 6 May weekly low at $88.66 is the medium-term structural support — any pullback toward this zone would be a significant long opportunity.

Fundamental Context

WTI’s move above $100 is driven almost entirely by the Iran risk premium. The renewed conflict fears — after reports that Iran is restoring military capacity faster than expected and peace talks stalled — have pushed crude toward four-year highs. The key risk event is binary: a genuine ceasefire or peace deal announcement would see WTI shed $15–20 instantly; further escalation could push toward $112–115. OPEC+ supply discipline is a secondary support, but demand destruction from high energy costs in Europe and Asia is the counterweight. For European session traders, morning geopolitical headlines from the Middle East will be the dominant WTI catalyst each day. Use tight stops and appropriate leverage.

Weekly Technical Analysis

Silver has fallen sharply from the $89.30 supply zone, declining to a two-week low of $74.09 intraweek before stabilizing at $75.47 on Friday. The daily chart shows the pair still trading comfortably above the 200-day SMA at $65.41, which remains the long-term structural support and would represent an extreme of the correction. The 20-day SMA at $77.59 is now the immediate resistance. Technical readings on the daily timeframe show a neutral-to-bearish bias, but the weekly RSI is at 52 — suggesting the correction is a pullback within a broader uptrend rather than a trend reversal. The key weekly support zone is $73–75, with $61 the next major level below if this support breaks.

Fundamental Context

Silver’s structural bull case remains intact despite the correction. Industrial demand from solar panel manufacturing, EV battery production and AI data centre cooling systems has created a structural demand floor. Primary silver producers reported falling output in Q1 2026, three of the four citing supply-side constraints — a bullish supply-demand dynamic. The headwinds are a stronger USD (precious metals inverse correlation) and risk-off pressure from geopolitical tensions. However, Iran tensions can also be a silver positive via the safe-haven demand channel — creating a complex cross-current. The 52-week range of $31.64 to $121.67 shows the scale of the commodity supercycle at play. A stabilization above $74–75 and a weekly close above $77.59 (20-day SMA) would confirm the dip has been bought.