Oil Holds Near $78 as Gulf War Grinds Into a Fourth Day; Euro Slips, Bund Yields Jump to Two-Month Highs, FTSE Wavers Ahead of US CPI and Fed Chair Warsh | European Session Technical Analysis | 13 July 2026
Oil Holds Near $78 as Gulf War Grinds Into a Fourth Day; Euro Slips, Bund Yields Jump to Two-Month Highs, FTSE Wavers as Fed’s Warsh and US CPI Loom
A fourth straight day of US-Iran strikes keeps oil elevated and the Dollar bid, leaving the Euro and precious metals on the defensive while European equities split along energy lines.
European markets opened the week’s second full session digesting a familiar geopolitical backdrop: overnight, US Central Command carried out a fourth round of strikes against Iranian targets in as many days, in response to continued Iranian attacks on commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has maintained since the weekend that the waterway, which handles close to a fifth of global oil and gas trade, is closed indefinitely, though CENTCOM disputes this and says commercial transits are continuing under escort. Brent crude, which spiked as much as 4% on Monday to touch just under $78 a barrel, has held most of those gains into the European session, keeping inflation risk squarely back on investors’ radar just a day before Tuesday’s critical US CPI release.
That backdrop has produced a genuinely two-sided European equity session. The FTSE 100 has eased modestly toward 10,499.09, with BP and Shell among the session’s better performers on the back of firmer crude, while mining and banking names, including Standard Chartered and Barclays, have lagged. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 both opened lower, continuing a pattern of energy-linked resilience offset by broader risk-aversion. Away from equities, the Euro has extended last week’s bearish flag breakdown to trade near 1.1430, with ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras warning that the bloc’s inflation fight is effectively back to square one given the renewed run-up in energy costs. That hawkish repricing has helped push Germany’s 10-year Bund yield back toward a two-month high near 3.07%, even as the Euro itself struggles to find support. Sterling, meanwhile, is holding just above short-term support near 1.3389, with investors also tracking the early stages of the contest to succeed Keir Starr Starmer as Prime Minister following his resignation in late June.
European Session Key Headlines
The stories driving price action across FX, rates, commodities and crypto this session
European Session Economic Calendar — 13 July 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action across today’s European session (times local/GMT as noted)
| Time | Event | Actual / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇮🇷Overnight | US Carries Out Fourth Round of Strikes on Iran | CENTCOM confirms fresh strikes after continued Iranian fire on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz | 🔴 CRITICAL | Keeps the four-day-old escalation cycle intact and underpins the broad risk-off, Dollar-firm tone |
| 🇮🇷Ongoing | Iran Maintains Strait of Hormuz “Closed Until Further Notice” | CENTCOM disputes the claim, citing continued escorted commercial transits | 🔴 CRITICAL | Sustains the oil-driven inflation risk premium priced across FX, rates and metals |
| 🇺🇸European Open | Brent & WTI Crude Oil | Brent holding near $78/bbl; WTI near $74/bbl, both little changed from the Asian session | 🔴 CRITICAL | Keeps inflation-hedging flows in play a day ahead of US CPI |
| 🇬🇧08:00 BST | FTSE 100 Open | Opens roughly 0.05% lower near 10,499.09; energy names outperform, miners and banks lag | 🟢 MEDIUM | Confirms a two-sided, energy-cushioned session rather than a broad risk-off rout |
| 🇩🇪09:00 CEST | DAX & CAC 40 Open | DAX opens about 0.08% lower; CAC 40 about 0.21% lower | 🟢 MEDIUM | Broader eurozone equities show a softer open than London’s energy-heavy FTSE |
| 🇩🇪Today | Germany 10-Year Bund Yield | Pushes back toward 3.07%, close to the two-month high of 3.09% touched last week | 🔴 CRITICAL | Reflects hawkish ECB repricing on oil-driven inflation risk; a headwind for Bund prices |
| 🇪🇺Today | ECB’s Yannis Stournaras Comments | Says the eurozone inflation fight is “back to square one” given renewed energy costs | 🟢 MEDIUM | Reinforces market pricing for further ECB tightening over the coming year |
| 🇬🇧This Week | UK PM Succession Race | Formal contest to replace Keir Starmer opened last week | ⚪ LOW | Has already removed a chunk of Sterling’s political risk premium; watch for candidate news |
| 🇪🇺This Week | European Bank Earnings Open | Barclays, UBS, Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas among lenders reporting | 🟢 MEDIUM | A key read on whether earnings momentum can offset the macro overhang from oil |
| 🇺🇸Tomorrow | US June CPI Report | Goldman Sachs expects core CPI near 2.8% year-on-year | 🔴 CRITICAL | The week’s single biggest catalyst for Fed-hike pricing, the Dollar and global yields |
| 🇺🇸Tomorrow | Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Congressional Testimony | First appearance before Congress since taking office in May 2026 | 🔴 CRITICAL | Markets will parse Warsh’s tone for confirmation of the modestly hawkish repricing seen this week |
European Session Trade Ideas — 13 July 2026
Eight structured setups — EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Silver, Corn, FTSE 100, EU 10Y, Ethereum, Solana — with updated prices, levels, and full fundamental and technical analysis
EUR/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
EUR/USD has extended its slide to around 1.1430 as the Dollar continues to draw broad safe-haven demand from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, now in its fourth consecutive day of exchanged strikes. The Euro’s weakness persists even as ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras warned the bloc’s inflation fight is “back to square one” given renewed energy costs, a comment that should in theory support hawkish rate expectations and the currency; instead, the Dollar’s own safe-haven premium is currently dominating the cross. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield has pushed back toward a two-month high near 3.07%, and Berlin’s newly approved 2027 budget, with record borrowing of €203.6 billion, adds a modest medium-term supply overhang for eurozone rates without materially altering the Euro’s near-term trajectory.
Technical Outlook
EUR/USD has broken down from last week’s bearish flag pattern, extending losses to test the 1.1430 area, below the 20-period EMA near 1.1485. Resistance sits at 1.1466 (the lower boundary of the broken flag) and 1.1504 (this trade’s stop, near the 20-EMA and channel top). Support lies at 1.1366 (last month’s swing low) and 1.1342 (this trade’s target, the next round-figure confluence). A confirmed close below 1.1342 would risk an extension toward the year’s lows, while a reclaim of 1.1504 would neutralise the near-term bearish setup.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any further escalation or de-escalation headlines from the Gulf that shift safe-haven Dollar demand; (2) further ECB commentary reinforcing or walking back hawkish rate expectations; (3) Bund yield direction, given the pair’s recent sensitivity to the German-US rate differential; (4) Tuesday’s US CPI print and Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony, both key Dollar-side inputs; (5) any follow-through from Germany’s 2027 budget approval on eurozone rate markets.
GBP/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
GBP/USD has slipped to around 1.3389 as broad Dollar strength, driven by the ongoing Gulf conflict, outweighs the removal of a chunk of Sterling’s domestic political risk premium now that the formal race to replace outgoing Prime Minister Keir Starmer has begun. The pair still maintains a near-term bullish structure on higher timeframes after Sterling’s rally following Starmer’s late-June resignation, but today’s session is squarely a Dollar story rather than a Pound one. Traders are also positioning ahead of Tuesday’s US CPI report and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony, both of which carry outsized importance for the Dollar side of this pair.
Technical Outlook
GBP/USD has faded from last week’s highs near 1.3469 to test the 1.3389 area, holding just above the 100-day simple moving average and the broader multi-week range low. Resistance sits at 1.3434 (this trade’s sell-rally level, near the recent consolidation range) and 1.3474 (this trade’s stop, near last week’s high). Support lies at 1.3347 (last week’s low) and 1.3319 (this trade’s target, the psychological round-figure and range base). A confirmed close below 1.3319 would risk a deeper pullback, while a reclaim of 1.3474 would shift the near-term bias back toward the recent highs.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any further Gulf escalation or de-escalation headlines that drive broad Dollar demand; (2) news flow on candidates entering the UK leadership race; (3) further Bank of England commentary on the policy outlook; (4) Tuesday’s US CPI report and its implications for Fed policy; (5) broad Dollar positioning ahead of Chair Warsh’s congressional testimony.
Silver
Fundamental Backdrop
Silver has extended last week’s slide, falling over 1.6% to around $58.71 an ounce, as renewed strikes between the US and Iran drive up crude prices and, in turn, expectations for continued Federal Reserve tightening to contain the resulting inflation risk. As a non-yielding asset, Silver is being squeezed by the same rates dynamic weighing on Gold: geopolitical risk would normally support haven demand, but firmer Treasury and Bund yields are currently the dominant force. Markets are awaiting Tuesday’s US CPI print and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony for further clarity on the policy path, with a near-60% probability currently priced for a Fed hike by September.
Technical Outlook
Silver has extended its decline from last week’s close near $59.84 to test the $58.71 area, continuing a multi-week corrective slide from its 2026 highs. Resistance sits at $59.86 (this trade’s sell-rally level, a psychological round figure) and $61.36 (this trade’s stop, last week’s swing high). Support lies at $58.71 (today’s level) and $56.46 (this trade’s target, last week’s low). A confirmed close below $56.46 would risk an extension toward the mid-$50s, while a reclaim of $61.36 would shift the near-term bias back toward the 50-day moving average near $70.86.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any further Gulf escalation or de-escalation headlines that shift the rates-versus-haven balance; (2) Bund and Treasury yield direction into Tuesday’s CPI print; (3) Fed Chair Warsh’s testimony and its implications for the pace of future tightening; (4) broader Dollar strength or weakness, given Silver’s inverse sensitivity; (5) industrial demand signals out of China and the eurozone.
Corn
Fundamental Backdrop
Corn futures are holding near a one-month high around $4.44 a bushel, extending a rally driven by a severe European heatwave that has pushed France’s corn crop rating to a 13-year low, with preliminary estimates suggesting nearly a third of the country’s crop has suffered heat damage. The renewed jump in crude oil prices tied to the Gulf conflict is providing an additional tailwind, since higher energy costs tend to support demand for corn-based ethanol. In the US, hot and dry conditions are also raising concern over pollination during the crop’s critical mid-to-late-July window, even as the latest USDA data left production forecasts largely intact.
Technical Outlook
Corn has extended its rally from last week’s close, pushing to a fresh one-month high near $4.44, building on the bull-friendly reaction to Friday’s USDA WASDE report. Resistance sits at $4.44 (today’s level, the one-month high) and $4.59 (this trade’s target, the next Fibonacci extension). Support lies at $4.36 (this trade’s buy-dip level, the prior breakout point) and $4.28 (this trade’s stop, the base of the recent range). A confirmed close above $4.59 would open a path toward the year’s highs, while a break below $4.28 would risk a retest of the broader multi-week range.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) further updates on European crop damage from the ongoing heatwave; (2) US Midwest weather forecasts through the crop’s critical pollination window; (3) any further upside in crude oil that supports ethanol-linked demand; (4) follow-through on the US-China agricultural tariff framework and any fresh Chinese purchases; (5) this week’s export sales data from the USDA.
FTSE 100
Fundamental Backdrop
The FTSE 100 is trading a genuinely two-sided session, easing modestly toward 10,499.09 as investors weigh renewed Middle East tensions after the US and Iran exchanged fresh strikes over the weekend and into Monday. Energy heavyweights BP and Shell are among the session’s better performers, lifted by crude oil’s climb toward $78 a barrel, while mining names including Endeavour, Fresnillo and Antofagasta, along with banks such as Standard Chartered and Barclays, are dragging on the broader index. GSK provided a rare bright spot outside energy after positive interim trial data for its cancer drug Jemperli. President Trump has rejected Iran’s claim that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, saying the key shipping route remains open to commercial traffic.
Technical Outlook
The FTSE 100 has pulled back from its intraday high of 10,546.09 to test the 10,492.09-10,499.09 area, holding within its recent multi-week range and still well below its 52-week high of 10,934.94. Resistance sits at 10,546.09 (today’s high) and 10,589.09 (this trade’s stop, near last week’s close). Support lies at 10,492.09 (today’s low) and 10,414.09 (this trade’s target, the next range-low confluence). A confirmed close below 10,414.09 would risk a deeper pullback toward the 52-week low zone, while a reclaim of 10,589.09 would shift the near-term bias back toward the recent highs.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any further Gulf escalation or de-escalation headlines that shift the balance between energy-stock gains and broad risk-off pressure; (2) further earnings updates from UK miners and banks; (3) Tuesday’s US CPI print and its read-through for global rate expectations; (4) news flow from the UK leadership race; (5) Bund and Gilt yield direction, given the index’s rate-sensitive financial and REIT constituents.
EU 10Y (German Bund)
Fundamental Backdrop
Germany’s 10-year Bund yield has pushed back toward 3.07%, closing in on last week’s two-month high of 3.09%, as the renewed run-up in oil prices tied to the Gulf conflict revives inflation concerns across the eurozone. ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said Monday that the bloc’s inflation fight is effectively “back to square one,” reinforcing market pricing for at least one, and potentially two, further ECB rate hikes over the next year. Germany’s cabinet has also approved a 2027 budget draft with a record €203.6 billion in borrowing, an additional medium-term supply factor working against Bund prices even as near-term yield direction remains dominated by the energy-inflation story.
Technical Outlook
The Bund yield has resumed its climb after a brief pullback to 3.03% last Friday, retracing toward the 3.09% high set in early July. Resistance sits at 3.09% (this trade’s breakout entry, last week’s high) and 3.20% (this trade’s target, the next psychological level not visited since the early-2026 inflation scare). Support lies at 3.03% (Friday’s low) and 3.00% (this trade’s stop, the round-figure floor). A confirmed break above 3.09% would expose a fresh multi-month high in yields, while a drop back below 3.00% would suggest the current inflation scare is fading.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any further Gulf escalation or de-escalation headlines that shift the energy-inflation calculus; (2) additional ECB speakers following Stournaras’ comments; (3) this week’s European bank earnings and their read-through for credit conditions; (4) Tuesday’s US CPI print, given the tight correlation between Bund and Treasury yields; (5) any further details on Germany’s 2027 budget and its funding plan.
Ethereum
Fundamental Backdrop
Ethereum is holding a mild bid near $1,783.56, a relatively resilient showing given the broad risk-off tone stemming from the fourth day of US-Iran strikes. The token’s steadiness contrasts with sharper weakness in some altcoin peers, including Solana, suggesting today’s crypto moves are being driven more by asset-specific positioning than a uniform flight from risk. Broader crypto sentiment remains cautious ahead of Tuesday’s US CPI print and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony, both of which carry implications for the liquidity backdrop that has supported digital assets through much of 2026.
Technical Outlook
Ethereum has held a tight range through the European session, consolidating near $1,783.56 after a modest overnight gain of roughly 0.3%. Resistance sits at $1,833.56 (the near-term range top) and $1,883.56 (this trade’s target, the next Fibonacci extension). Support lies at $1,743.56 (this trade’s buy-dip level, the base of the current range) and $1,703.56 (this trade’s stop, last week’s swing low). A confirmed close above $1,883.56 would open a path toward the next resistance band, while a break below $1,703.56 would risk a deeper pullback in line with the broader risk-off mood.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) Bitcoin’s own directional cues, given the historically tight correlation between BTC and ETH; (2) any further Gulf escalation that could broaden the current risk-off move into crypto; (3) continued institutional flow data for Ethereum-linked funds; (4) Tuesday’s US CPI print and its implications for the broader liquidity backdrop; (5) relative performance versus Solana and other large-cap altcoins as a read on rotation within crypto markets.
Solana
Fundamental Backdrop
Solana has eased to around $75.15, testing the long-term Fibonacci retracement zone near $72.15 that has capped the token’s downside on prior pullbacks, as broad risk-off sentiment tied to the Gulf conflict weighs on higher-beta altcoins more than on Bitcoin or Ethereum. The move comes despite continued strength in on-chain activity, with Solana recently recording over a billion weekly non-vote transactions and active addresses approaching seven million, alongside progress on the network’s Firedancer validator rollout targeted for mainnet activation later in 2026. Solana-linked ETF products have continued to see inflows even as the token price has softened, underscoring a divergence between structural adoption and near-term price action.
Technical Outlook
Solana’s slide from last week’s levels has taken price down toward $75.15, closing in on the critical Fibonacci support near $72.15 that marks the last major floor before deeper downside would open up. Resistance sits at $78.15 (this trade’s sell-rally level, near recent consolidation) and $81.15 (this trade’s stop, the 50-day/100-day moving average confluence). Support lies at $75.15 (today’s level) and $69.15 (this trade’s target, just below the key $72.15 Fibonacci zone). A confirmed close below $72.15 would risk an extension toward $64.15-$67.15, while a reclaim of $81.15 would shift the near-term bias back toward the moving-average confluence.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) Bitcoin’s own directional cues, given the historically tight correlation between BTC and SOL during risk-off events; (2) any further Gulf conflict developments that could deepen the broader crypto selloff; (3) continued ETF and institutional fund-flow data for Solana-linked products; (4) progress on the Firedancer validator rollout and other infrastructure catalysts; (5) broader altcoin performance, including Ethereum, as a read on whether today’s weakness is idiosyncratic or market-wide.
European Session FAQ
Common questions about today’s key market movers, answered
European Session Summary — Monday, 13 July 2026 (Updated Mid-Session, ~12:45 PM BST/CEST)
Monday’s European session is being shaped by the same story that has dominated markets since the weekend, per live Reuters, Bloomberg, Investing.com and FXStreet coverage: a fourth consecutive day of US-Iran strikes, with Iran maintaining the Strait of Hormuz is closed “until further notice” and CENTCOM disputing the claim. Brent crude is holding close to $78 a barrel, keeping inflation risk elevated a day ahead of Tuesday’s critical US CPI release and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first congressional testimony. European equities are trading a genuinely two-sided session: the FTSE 100 has eased about 0.12% to near 10,499.09 as gains in BP and Shell offset weakness in miners and banks, while the DAX and CAC 40 both opened modestly lower. The Euro has extended a bearish flag breakdown to trade near 1.1430 despite ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras warning that the bloc’s inflation fight is “back to square one,” and Germany’s 10-year Bund yield has pushed back toward a two-month high near 3.07%. Sterling is holding just above support near 1.3389 as the race to replace outgoing Prime Minister Keir Starmer gets underway. Silver has fallen over 1.6% to near $58.71 as firmer yields offset its haven appeal, while Corn has extended its rally toward $4.44 a bushel on European heat damage to France’s crop and firmer energy-linked ethanol demand. In digital assets, Ethereum holds a mild bid near $1,783.56 while Solana has softened toward $75.15, testing key Fibonacci support. Highest-conviction session idea: sell EUR/USD rallies toward 1.1472, targeting 1.1362 — the combination of persistent Dollar safe-haven demand, a still-unresolved Gulf conflict and a bearish technical flag breakdown forms a genuine near-term directional case, though any credible de-escalation headline or a softer-than-feared US CPI print on Tuesday remains a real catalyst that could sharply reverse this move.
For the individual instruments: GBP/USD sell rallies toward 1.3434, stop 1.3474, target 1.3319 — broad Dollar strength is a genuine tailwind for this trade, though the removal of UK political risk following the leadership race announcement is a real headwind to a sustained move lower. Silver sell rallies toward $59.86, stop $61.36, target $56.46 — firmer yields and Dollar strength are genuine tailwinds to further downside, though any sharp escalation in the Gulf conflict is a real risk to this trade via a renewed haven bid. Corn buy dips toward $4.36, stop $4.28, target $4.59 — European crop damage and firmer ethanol demand are genuine tailwinds, though a stabilisation in US Midwest weather is a real headwind to further upside. FTSE 100 sell rallies toward 10,544.09, stop 10,589.09, target 10,414.09 — weakness in miners and banks is a genuine tailwind, though continued strength in energy majors is a real headwind to a sustained move lower. EU 10Y buy the yield breakout above 3.09%, stop 3.00%, target 3.20% — renewed oil-driven inflation risk and hawkish ECB commentary are genuine tailwinds, though a credible Gulf de-escalation is a real risk to this trade. Ethereum buy dips toward $1,743.56, stop $1,703.56, target $1,883.56 — relative resilience versus other altcoins is a genuine tailwind, though a broadening of the Gulf-driven risk-off move is a real risk to this trade. Solana sell rallies toward $78.15, stop $81.15, target $69.15 — broad altcoin risk-off and proximity to key Fibonacci support are genuine tailwinds, though robust on-chain activity and ETF inflows are a real risk to further downside. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are any further Gulf escalation or de-escalation headlines, additional ECB commentary, and positioning ahead of Tuesday’s CPI release and Chair Warsh’s testimony. Size positions accordingly, and note that the geopolitical backdrop remains exceptionally fluid and carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply intraday.
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