Bitcoin Snaps Back From 75,618 as Democrats Take Congress: Ether Leads at +1.9%, Solana Stalls Under a Broken Trendline and Bitcoin Needs 80,087 to Confirm the Rebound | Technical Analysis – Crypto Report | 04 Nov 2026
Crypto Live | Wednesday 4 November 2026 | Prices as of 12:25 GMT
Bitcoin Snaps Back From 75,618 as Democrats Take Congress: Ether Leads at +1.9%, Solana Stalls Under a Broken Trendline and Bitcoin Needs 80,087 to Confirm the Rebound
Market Overview
Bitcoin has erased the election-night plunge in a matter of hours: from a low of 75,618, its weakest print since September, it is back at 78,103 (+0.98%) after Democrats won both chambers of Congress, and Ether (2,314.9, +1.89%) is the strongest of the five majors. Solana (92.74, +0.03%) and BNB (699.44, +0.35%) are barely moving, and that gap is the story of the session: this is a rebound in the leaders, not a market-wide recovery. Reuters says the dip reversed as US stock futures flipped positive, and the dollar index near 101.4 sits at a one-month low. About $366 million of mostly long positions were flushed on the way down, and the Fear and Greed reading of 34 shows traders still do not trust the bounce.
The risks are real. Crypto has shed roughly $300 billion in a month, spot Bitcoin ETFs have just posted their largest net outflow since early July, and the $6.3 billion Binance hack keeps draining the exchange, with $4.72 billion withdrawn net since it reopened. A Democratic Congress also puts the timing of US crypto legislation in doubt. The next test is US ADP at 13:15 GMT, followed by the US equity open at 14:30 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT, with markets still pricing about a 73% chance of a December Fed hike per ING. The dollar is weak on politics, not on policy, so a hot print can flip it fast. Bitcoin must close above 80,087 and Ether above 2,356 to turn this bounce into a trend; a close under 75,618 would unwind it for all five. The desk plan: buy pullbacks in Bitcoin near 76,900 and Ether near 2,260 (medium conviction), XRP near 1.250 (medium), BNB near 688 (low), and sell Solana rallies into 96.00 (low). Every entry sits away from the price, so patience is part of the trade.
Key highlights
- Bitcoin: Price (78,103) vs 80,087 fast, 81,945 medium and 76,799 slow averages; RSI 41.90.
- Ethereum: Price (2,314.9) vs 2,355.8 fast, 2,504.2 medium and 2,343.9 slow averages; RSI 42.89.
- XRP: Price (1.27716) vs 1.30872 fast, 1.38508 medium and 1.29260 slow averages; RSI 43.00.
- Solana: Price (92.74) vs 100.12 fast, 108.52 medium and 98.71 slow averages; RSI 28.95.
- BNB: Price (699.44) vs 723.90 fast, 747.17 medium and 702.68 slow averages; RSI 39.17.
What’s Moving Crypto Today
Crypto rebounds from a September-level low after Democrats win both chambers
Reuters reported Bitcoin touched its lowest level since September overnight, then rose 0.7% to 78,354 by 08:41 GMT as US stock futures reversed; Ether gained 1.4% to 2,323. Solana, Dogecoin and Cardano rose 1.6% to 2.2% but have each lost nearly a quarter of their value in a month. Bitcoin is still about 41% under its October 2025 record above 122,000.
Source: Reuters, FXStreet, 4 Nov 2026
Binance’s $6.3 billion hack still dominates sentiment as customers pull funds
The FBI has attributed the record heist to North Korean hackers, and Binance says it has replaced about 90% of the stolen assets from its treasury, SAFU fund and futures insurance fund. Reuters reports customers withdrew a net $4.72 billion after the exchange reopened on Sunday. A HashKey analyst said the string of security incidents is forcing investors to re-examine custody risk.
Source: Reuters, The Block, CoinDesk, 4 Nov 2026
Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their biggest net outflow since early July after the hack
LSEG/Lipper data cited by Reuters put the post-hack ETF outflow at $884 million, the largest since early July, taking the year-to-date outflow to $1.84 billion. Bitcoin ETFs lost $643 million on the day after the hack alone, ending a four-day inflow run. Fresh flow prints today decide whether the 76,799 floor keeps attracting buyers.
Source: Reuters, Bitcoin.com News, 4 Nov 2026
A Democratic Congress puts the timing of US crypto legislation in question
Reuters notes the industry spent more than $300 million backing candidates from both parties, and some Democrats favour light-touch rules. HashKey warns the shift could stall market-structure legislation, while Grayscale argues the result matters only at the margins. Coin Bureau’s Nic Puckrin said a Democratic sweep could dampen sentiment on fears of tighter rules.
Source: Reuters, Benzinga, 4 Nov 2026
The dollar is at a one-month low, but Fed-hike pricing keeps it two-way for risk assets
The dollar index is near 101.4 and the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.9% after the election result. ING says the market still prices about a 73% chance of a December Fed hike, so ADP at 13:15 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT can reverse the dollar move quickly. Reuters says crypto has lost about $300 billion in a month as AI-return worries and higher borrowing costs pushed money into bonds.
Source: Reuters, ING via FXStreet, 4 Nov 2026
Leverage flush and fear readings keep the tone cautious even as prices bounce
Reports say about $366 million of leveraged positions, mostly longs, were liquidated in the overnight dip to 75,700, and the Fear and Greed index stands at 34, in fear. FXStreet noted that Bitcoin tested the 200-day exponential average near 76,501 before recovering, which makes 76,000 to 76,500 the line traders are watching.
Source: CoinGecko, FXStreet, Sunday Guardian, 4 Nov 2026
Key Drivers for the Rest of Today
Six things that set direction for the rest of the session in Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana and BNB. All times are GMT.
- US ADP employment (October)
- 13:15
- Wed 4 Nov, 13:15 GMT
- Forecast about 67K to 69K against 90K prior. A strong reading lifts yields and the dollar and pressures all five coins; a weak one extends the rebound.
- US equity open
- 14:30
- Wed 4 Nov, 14:30 GMT
- Crypto has tracked US stock futures all session. A weak open that reverses the overnight recovery would put 76,799 in Bitcoin back in play.
- US ISM services PMI (October)
- 15:00
- Wed 4 Nov, 15:00 GMT
- Forecast 54.8 against 54.9, with prices paid watched near 75. A hot print revives Fed-hike bets and tests the lower end of each range.
- Binance outflows and ETF flow prints
- All day
- Wed 4 Nov, ongoing
- Further net withdrawals from Binance would keep BNB heavy; a return to ETF inflows would back the 76,799 Bitcoin floor.
- US-Iran talks and political headlines
- All day
- Wed 4 Nov, ongoing
- Deal hopes have helped risk appetite, and a breakdown or a surprise from Washington on crypto legislation would hit the altcoins first.
- Daily close (Thu 5 Nov, 00:00 GMT)
- 00:00
- Thu 5 Nov, 00:00 GMT
- Crypto daily candles close at 00:00 GMT. A close above 78,000 in Bitcoin would confirm the defence of the channel floor.
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana and BNB, valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | Long | 76,900 | 75,400 | 79,000 | 80,087 | 1.4 / 2.1 | Medium |
| Ethereum (ETHUSD) | Long | 2,260.0 | 2,185.0 | 2,356.0 | 2,504.0 | 1.3 / 3.3 | Medium |
| XRP (XRPUSD) | Long | 1.2500 | 1.1950 | 1.3087 | 1.3851 | 1.1 / 2.5 | Medium |
| Solana (SOLANA) | Short | 96.00 | 100.20 | 90.00 | 86.00 | 1.4 / 2.4 | Low |
| BNB (BNB) | Long | 688.00 | 672.00 | 710.00 | 723.90 | 1.4 / 2.2 | Low |
Entry is the midpoint of each entry zone, and reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. A third target for each instrument is in its section below. Prices are feed prices from the daily charts captured at about 12:25 GMT (17:55 UTC+5:30) on 4 November. Every long entry sits below the market and needs a pullback, and the Solana short needs a bounce; the 13:15 GMT ADP and 15:00 GMT ISM releases can gap prices through any level. All five coins move together with Bitcoin, so a break under 75,618 hits every long at once. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
ADP at 13:15 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT are the swing factors for the rest of today.
ADP and ISM above forecast with firmer yields: the dollar rebounds from its one-month low
Strong readings would revive Fed-hike bets, lift yields and send the five coins back toward today’s lows, with another Binance outflow headline adding to BNB’s weakness.
- BTC76,799, then 75,618
- ETH2,260, then 2,223
- XRP1.2402, then 1.2000
- SOL89.73, then 86.00
- BNB680.31, then 672.00
ADP and ISM below forecast with lower yields: the dollar slide extends
Weak readings would pull yields lower, support US stocks and push Bitcoin, Ether and XRP into their moving-average clusters; Solana and BNB would need to clear their slow averages first.
- BTC80,087, then 81,945
- ETH2,356, then 2,504
- XRP1.3087, then 1.3851
- SOL98.71, then 100.12
- BNB702.68, then 723.90
ADP comes first, at 13:15 GMT
A reading near or above 69K would back a dollar rebound and test the 76,900 entry zone in Bitcoin. A reading below 67K would keep yields falling and give Bitcoin a path to 80,087.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) | Bitstamp feed
Bitcoin Analysis: Price Bounces Off the Slow Average Inside a Falling Channel and Heads for 80,087
78,103 +758 (+0.98%) at about 12:25 GMT Previous close 77,345
Outlook: Bias is cautiously higher while 75,618 holds. Bitcoin dipped to its lowest level since September there overnight as Democrats took both chambers, then recovered to about 78,100 as US stock futures turned positive; the 80,087 fast average is the first real test.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 74,000
- Support 1
- 75,618
- Resistance 1
- 80,087
- Resistance 2
- 81,945
- Price (78,103) is above the 76,799 slow average and under the 80,087 fast and 81,945 medium averages. Main catalyst: ADP at 13:15 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT, plus spot ETF flow prints after the Binance outflows.
- RSI 41.90 above its 40.86 average: stabilising. A 4-hour close above 80,087 opens 81,945; a close under 75,618 puts the channel floor near 74,000 in play, then 73,000.
Setup: Long at 76,900, stop 75,400, targets 79,000, 80,087 and 81,945. Reward:risk 1.4 / 2.1 / 3.4, medium conviction. Cancel on a 4-hour close below 75,400, or hot ADP and ISM readings that lift the dollar. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Ethereum (ETH/USD) | Bitstamp feed
Ethereum Analysis: Price Rebounds From the Triangle Floor and Pushes Into the Moving-Average Cluster at 2,344 to 2,356
2,314.9 +42.8 (+1.89%) at about 12:25 GMT Previous close 2,272.1
Outlook: Bias is higher while 2,223 holds. Ether gained about 1.4% to roughly 2,323 by 08:41 GMT per Reuters and is now pressing the 2,343.9 and 2,355.8 averages; a close above them is needed to turn the bounce into a move.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 2,185.0
- Support 1
- 2,223.0
- Resistance 1
- 2,355.8
- Resistance 2
- 2,504
- Price (2,314.9) is under the 2,355.8 fast, 2,504.2 medium and 2,343.9 slow averages, the closest cluster to the price on the board. Ether fell about 4.6% on the day of the Binance hack and has since recovered.
- RSI 42.89 above its 35.55 average: improving. A 4-hour close above 2,356 targets 2,504; a break under 2,223 exposes the triangle floor near 2,185.
Setup: Long at 2,260.0, stop 2,185.0, targets 2,356.0, 2,504.0 and 2,600.0. Reward:risk 1.3 / 3.3 / 4.5, medium conviction. Cancel on a 4-hour close below 2,185, or if Bitcoin loses 75,618. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
XRP (XRP/USD) | Bitstamp feed
XRP Analysis: Price Holds the Triangle Floor and Is Capped Just Under the 1.2926 Slow Average
1.27716 +0.00207 (+0.16%) at about 12:25 GMT Previous close 1.27509
Outlook: Bias is neutral to higher while 1.24 holds. XRP is the relative-strength name of the five, up about 1.6% over 24 hours, but it has not yet cleared the 1.2926 slow average; the 1.3087 fast average is the next ceiling.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.2000
- Support 1
- 1.2402
- Resistance 1
- 1.3087
- Resistance 2
- 1.3851
- Price (1.27716) is under the 1.30872 fast, 1.38508 medium and 1.29260 slow averages. The Democratic sweep raises the question of when US crypto market-structure legislation moves; XRP has so far held up better than Bitcoin.
- RSI 43.00 above its 39.93 average: improving. A 4-hour close above 1.3087 opens 1.3851; a close under 1.24 puts the triangle floor near 1.20 in play.
Setup: Long at 1.2500, stop 1.1950, targets 1.3087, 1.3851 and 1.4500. Reward:risk 1.1 / 2.5 / 3.6, medium conviction. Cancel on a 4-hour close below 1.195, or a Bitcoin break under 75,618. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Solana (SOL/USD) | Coinbase feed
Solana Analysis: Price Sits Under the Broken Rising Trendline With RSI Oversold, the Weakest Chart of the Five
92.74 +0.03 (+0.03%) at about 12:25 GMT Previous close 92.71
Outlook: Bias is lower while price stays under 98.71. Solana is up just 0.03% on the daily candle against 0.98% for Bitcoin and has lost nearly a quarter of its value in a month per CoinGecko data cited by Reuters; the broken trendline near 93 is now resistance.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 86.00
- Support 1
- 89.73
- Resistance 1
- 98.71
- Resistance 2
- 100.12
- Price (92.74) is under the 100.12 fast, 108.52 medium and 98.71 slow averages. RSI of 28.95 is the most oversold reading of the five, so a sharp relief bounce is possible before sellers return.
- RSI 28.95 below its 33.36 average: still falling. A 4-hour close under 89.73 targets 86.00; a close above 98.71 cancels the bearish view and opens 100.12.
Setup: Short at 96.00, stop 100.20, targets 90.00, 86.00 and 82.00. Reward:risk 1.4 / 2.4 / 3.3, low conviction. Cancel on a 4-hour close above 100.20, or if a strong ISM-led rally lifts Bitcoin above 80,087. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
BNB (BNB/USD) | TradingView crypto index feed
BNB Analysis: Price Rests on the Rising Floor of a Large Triangle and Lags the Rebound as Binance Outflows Weigh
699.44 +2.43 (+0.35%) at about 12:25 GMT Previous close 697.01
Outlook: Bias is neutral while 680.31 holds. BNB has lagged the market, edging up 0.35% on the daily candle against 0.98% for Bitcoin, because the exchange behind the token is still losing customer balances after the $6.3 billion hack.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 672.00
- Support 1
- 680.31
- Resistance 1
- 702.68
- Resistance 2
- 723.90
- Price (699.44) is under the 723.90 fast, 747.17 medium and 702.68 slow averages. Binance says it has replaced about 90% of the stolen funds and has resumed withdrawals, but net customer outflows of $4.72 billion since reopening, per Reuters, weigh on the token.
- RSI 39.17 below its 44.29 average: weakest momentum of the five. A 4-hour close above 702.68 opens 723.90; a close under 680.31 breaks the triangle floor and targets 645.
Setup: Long at 688.00, stop 672.00, targets 710.00, 723.90 and 747.17. Reward:risk 1.4 / 2.2 / 3.7, low conviction. Cancel on a 4-hour close below 672, or fresh Binance security or outflow headlines. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Conclusion
The rebound is real but unconfirmed: Bitcoin needs a 4-hour close above 80,087 and Ether above 2,356 before the bounce turns into a trend. We prefer buying pullbacks in Bitcoin near 76,900 and Ether near 2,260 at medium conviction, XRP near 1.250 at medium conviction and BNB near 688 at low conviction. Solana is the exception: a bounce into 96.00 is a selling area at low conviction. The session risks are ADP at 13:15 GMT, ISM services at 15:00 GMT, Binance and ETF flow headlines, and the 00:00 GMT daily close. A 4-hour close under 75,618 in Bitcoin would change the picture for all five.
Trade Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana and BNB with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the crypto outlook for today?
Cautiously higher but fragile. Bitcoin is near 78,100 after a low of 75,618, its weakest since September, Ether is near 2,315 and the dollar index is near 101.4. ADP at 13:15 GMT and ISM services at 15:00 GMT are the main scheduled tests.
Which crypto trade ideas are live today?
Long Bitcoin, Ether, XRP and BNB on pullbacks, and short Solana on a rally, each with a stop and three targets.
Why did Bitcoin fall to 75,618 and recover?
The overnight dip followed the Democratic win in both chambers and continued Binance hack and ETF outflow worries; it reversed as US stock futures turned positive and the dollar slipped.
Why is Solana weaker than Bitcoin today?
Solana has broken its rising trendline from the June low, trades under all three averages and has an RSI of 28.95, so rallies are meeting supply near 93 to 98.
What time are the key events in GMT?
US ADP at 13:15 GMT, the US equity open at 14:30 GMT, ISM services at 15:00 GMT and the crypto daily close at 00:00 GMT.
