Nasdaq 100 Futures Jump on Chip Revival Ahead of Big Tech Earnings, Gold Holds Above $4,000, Bitcoin Hits a One-Month High as New Canada Tariffs and the US-Iran Conflict Dominate | U.S. Session – Technical Analysis | 21 July 2026
Nasdaq 100 Futures Jump on Chip Revival Ahead of Big Tech Earnings, Gold Holds Above $4,000, Bitcoin Hits a One-Month High as New Canada Tariffs and the US-Iran Conflict Dominate
Nasdaq 100 futures jump on a chip-stock revival ahead of this week’s Big Tech earnings, Gold holds the $4,000 line as Fed hike bets build, the Dollar is broadly firm against the Franc and the Loonie after fresh Canada tariffs, Brent hovers near $89 on the unresolved Iran conflict, and Bitcoin touches a one-month high.
Tuesday’s U.S. session is shaping up to be a tug-of-war between a genuinely risk-on equity tape and a still-unresolved geopolitical and trade backdrop. Nasdaq 100 futures are up more than 1.3% to around 29,165, extending Monday’s attempted rebound in chip names after last week’s sharp semiconductor drawdown; South Korea’s KOSPI jumped over 2% overnight on the same read-through, and Nvidia ticked higher after disclosing a stake in AI cloud provider Nebius. Traders are looking ahead to a dense earnings calendar, with General Motors, Halliburton and 3M due today and Alphabet’s results on Wednesday seen as the key test of whether AI capital-expenditure guidance can support the sector’s stretched valuations.
The Dollar is broadly firm across the board, a dynamic playing out clearly in USD/CHF and USD/CAD. USD/CHF is trading near 0.8105 as continued safe-haven demand tied to the escalating US-Iran conflict keeps the Swiss Franc on the back foot even as the Swiss National Bank reiterates its readiness to intervene against excessive Franc strength. USD/CAD is holding close to 1.4020 after President Trump announced a fresh round of 50% tariffs on Canadian autos, dairy, alcohol and chemicals late Monday, a move that risks reigniting a tit-for-tat trade dispute between the two countries; the White House’s exemption of Canadian crude oil from the levy has offered the Loonie some partial offset given firm oil prices.
Commodities remain squarely levered to the Middle East backdrop, though with a slightly calmer tone than Monday’s peak. Brent crude is trading near $89.20 a barrel, off its brief push above $90, after Iran’s foreign ministry indicated it had received mediator proposals aimed at reducing tensions, even as the US continued strikes against Iranian targets and confirmed the death of a third American service member in recent days. Gold is holding just above the closely watched $4,000 level, near $4,030, caught between persistent safe-haven demand and a Federal Reserve repricing that has pushed September rate-hike odds to roughly 55% and December odds to about 80%, a shift reinforced by hawkish remarks from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack.
Rates markets are pricing the same hawkish dynamic: the US 5-year Treasury yield is trading near 4.38%, close to a multi-month high, with the curve broadly higher into the Fed’s July 28-29 policy meeting — the 10-year sits near 4.57-4.60% and the 2-year near 4.16%. In digital assets, Bitcoin has touched a one-month high near $66,160, within striking distance of last month’s $67,000 swing high, which technicians say could confirm a bullish monthly engulfing pattern and open a path toward $73,000. XRP, meanwhile, is consolidating around $1.11, held back below the $1.14 50-day EMA and the $1.13 Fibonacci retracement, though a well-defined triangle pattern keeps a breakout toward $1.35 in play should Bitcoin’s strength broaden out across the altcoin complex.
Sessions like this one, wedged between an unresolved Middle East conflict, a fresh US-Canada trade flare-up and a pivotal Big Tech earnings week, reward traders who can react in seconds, not minutes. Capital Street FX clients trade this Fed-and-Iran-conflict-driven volatility on our Zero Account‘s 0.0 Pips Spreads with 1:10000 Leverage, across 2000+ Instruments spanning FX, indices, commodities and crypto — backed by 24/7 Live Support for exactly this kind of headline-driven session.
U.S. Session Headlines
The stories driving price action across currencies, metals, energy, equities, rates and crypto this session
U.S. Session Economic Calendar — 21 July 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action across today’s New York morning and afternoon (ET unless noted)
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸This Week | FOMC Policy Decision Preview (28-29 July) | Fed widely expected to hold rates; September hike odds near 55%, December odds near 80% | 🔴 CRITICAL | Primary driver of Treasury yields, the Dollar and Gold into next week’s meeting |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | US Strikes on Iran / Strait of Hormuz Standoff | US confirms third service-member death; Iran signals openness to mediated talks | 🔴 CRITICAL | Primary driver of oil, Gold’s safe-haven premium and broad Dollar tone |
| 🇫🇦Overnight | New US Tariffs on Canadian Goods | 50% tariffs on autos, dairy, alcohol and chemicals announced, effective in 30 days; oil exempted | 🔴 CRITICAL | Key swing factor for USD/CAD this session |
| 🇺🇸All Day | Earnings: General Motors, Halliburton, 3M | Early look at consumer, energy-services and industrial demand ahead of Wednesday’s Alphabet report | 🟢 MEDIUM | Sets the tone for Nasdaq 100 and broader index risk appetite into Big Tech week |
| 🇳🇷Overnight | South Korea KOSPI Chip Rally | KOSPI Composite gained over 2% on semiconductor strength, echoing a US chip-stock revival | 🟢 MEDIUM | Read-through for Nasdaq 100 futures and chip-sensitive names at the New York open |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | Fed Rate-Hike Repricing | September hike odds near 55%, up from 47% a day earlier, after hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack | 🟢 MEDIUM | Cross-asset driver for Gold, the US 5Y yield and broad Dollar tone |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | US Treasury Curve Watch | 5-year near 4.38%, 10-year near 4.57-4.60%, 2-year near 4.16%, all close to multi-month highs | 🟢 MEDIUM | Reflects the same oil-and-Fed inflation dynamic pressuring the front end into the FOMC meeting |
U.S. Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s eight key instruments
USD/CHF
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CHF is trading near 0.8105 as the Swiss Franc’s traditional safe-haven appeal is being overridden by a broadly firm Dollar tied to the deteriorating US-Iran conflict and a hawkish Fed repricing. The Swiss National Bank has reiterated its willingness to intervene in the FX market to counter excessive Franc appreciation, which continues to cap the currency’s upside even as geopolitical risk stays elevated. Against that, any sharp de-escalation headline out of the Middle East could quickly reverse the Franc’s recent weakness.
Technical Outlook
The pair is consolidating in the upper half of its recent range, having firmed roughly 4% since the conflict escalated in June. A sustained break above 0.8150 would expose the 0.8200 area last tested in early 2026. On the downside, a close back below 0.8020, this trade’s stop-loss level, would call the near-term bullish structure into question and open the way toward 0.7950.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) further escalation or de-escalation headlines from the US-Iran conflict; (2) any SNB commentary or intervention signals; (3) US Treasury yield direction into next week’s FOMC meeting; (4) broad risk sentiment tied to U.S. equities; (5) any fresh Swiss inflation or trade data released during the session.
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USD/CAD
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CAD is trading near 1.4020 after President Trump unveiled fresh 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods including autos, dairy, alcohol and chemicals late Monday, a move set to take effect in 30 days amid accusations of Canadian “discrimination” in trade practices. The exemption of Canadian crude oil imports from the levy, alongside Brent’s climb toward six-week highs, is offering the Loonie some partial offset, but the broader tariff escalation risk keeps the pair biased higher for now.
Technical Outlook
The pair is holding above short-term moving-average support after a firm advance over the past week. A sustained break above 1.4110 would expose the 1.4180 region last tested in the spring. On the downside, a close back below 1.3920, this trade’s stop-loss level, would call the near-term uptrend into question and open the way toward 1.3860.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any Canadian government response to the new tariffs, including retaliatory measures; (2) further US-Iran conflict headlines and their impact on oil-driven Dollar demand; (3) Bank of Canada commentary reacting to the trade escalation; (4) broad Dollar direction tied to Treasury yields into the FOMC meeting; (5) Canadian economic data released during the session.
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Gold
Fundamental Backdrop
Gold is trading near $4,030 an ounce, holding just above the psychologically important $4,000 level as safe-haven demand tied to the US-Iran conflict squares off against a Fed repricing that has pushed September hike odds to roughly 55% and December odds to about 80%, reinforced by hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. Rising real yields are a genuine headwind, but persistent geopolitical risk and inflation concerns tied to elevated oil prices continue to offer the metal support.
Technical Outlook
The metal is consolidating just above the $4,000 support shelf after a sharp pullback from its 2026 highs. A sustained break above $4,110 would expose the $4,180 region, while a close back below $3,930, this trade’s stop-loss level, would call the near-term base into question and open the way toward $3,870.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any pre-FOMC signalling from Fed officials ahead of the July 28-29 meeting; (2) further escalation or de-escalation headlines from the US-Iran conflict; (3) US Treasury yield direction; (4) broad Dollar strength tied to the Canada tariff dispute; (5) weekly ADP employment data due this session.
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Brent Crude Oil
Fundamental Backdrop
Brent crude is trading near $89.20 a barrel, easing off Monday’s brief push above $90 after Iran’s foreign ministry indicated it had received mediator proposals aimed at reducing tensions. Even so, the US continued strikes against Iranian targets overnight and confirmed the death of a third American service member in recent days, keeping the Strait of Hormuz standoff and its shipping-disruption risk squarely in focus. The White House’s exemption of Canadian crude from its new tariff round has had a limited direct impact on Brent but underscores how central energy security is to the current policy backdrop.
Technical Outlook
The contract is holding a firm uptrend after a roughly 21% climb over the past month, with the recent pullback from above $90 reading as digestion rather than reversal. A sustained break back above $92.50 would expose the $96 region last tested in mid-2025. On the downside, a close back below $84.50, this trade’s stop-loss level, would call the recent uptrend into question and open the way toward $81.00.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) further escalation or de-escalation headlines from the US-Iran conflict, particularly around Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic; (2) any confirmed progress on mediated talks; (3) US crude and product inventory data later this week; (4) broad Dollar direction; (5) OPEC+ commentary on potential output adjustments.
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Nasdaq 100
Fundamental Backdrop
Nasdaq 100 futures are up more than 1.3% near 29,165 as chip stocks stage a second consecutive day of gains after last week’s sharp semiconductor selloff, with South Korea’s KOSPI jumping over 2% overnight on the same theme. Nvidia edged higher after disclosing a stake in AI cloud provider Nebius, adding to the constructive tone heading into a dense earnings week. Tech optimism is helping offset uncertainty tied to the new Canada tariffs and the ongoing US-Iran conflict, though a hawkish Fed repricing remains a genuine headwind for richly valued growth names.
Technical Outlook
The index is rebounding from an oversold technical condition following last week’s chip-led drawdown, with futures reclaiming short-term moving-average resistance. A sustained break above 29,700 would expose the 30,200 region last tested before the semiconductor selloff. On the downside, a close back below 28,300, this trade’s stop-loss level, would call the rebound into question and open the way toward 27,800.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) Alphabet’s earnings and AI capital-expenditure guidance on Wednesday, alongside Tesla and Intel results this week; (2) today’s reports from General Motors, Halliburton and 3M; (3) chip-sector momentum following the KOSPI’s overnight rally; (4) broad risk sentiment tied to the US-Iran conflict and new Canada tariffs; (5) Treasury yield direction into next week’s FOMC meeting.
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US 05Y (5-Year Treasury Yield)
Fundamental Backdrop
The US 5-year Treasury yield is trading near 4.38%, close to a multi-month high, as the same oil-driven inflation scare tied to the US-Iran conflict lifts Fed rate-hike odds to roughly 55% for September and 80% for December. Hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack have reinforced the repricing, and the curve is broadly elevated into the Fed’s July 28-29 policy meeting, with the 10-year near 4.57-4.60% and the 2-year near 4.16%.
Technical Outlook
The yield is holding a firm uptrend after recovering from a dip tied to last week’s cooler-than-expected CPI print, with the broader structure still favoring higher yields as long as support around 4.20% holds. A sustained break above 4.55% would expose the 4.70% region, while a close back below 4.20%, this trade’s stop-loss level, would call the near-term bullish structure into question and open the way toward 4.05%.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any pre-FOMC signalling from Fed officials ahead of next week’s meeting; (2) further escalation or de-escalation headlines from the US-Iran conflict and their impact on oil-driven inflation expectations; (3) weekly ADP employment data due this session; (4) broad Dollar and equity-market direction; (5) Treasury auction results later this week.
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BTC/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
BTC/USD is trading near $66,160 after climbing to its best level in more than a month, extending a broader upward trend across risk assets even as cross-currents from the US-Iran conflict and the new Canada tariffs persist. Analysts note that a breakout above the $67,000 swing high from last month could confirm a bullish monthly engulfing candlestick pattern, a signal some traders view as consistent with a market bottom having formed earlier this year.
Technical Outlook
The pair is testing its key near-term resistance at the $67,000 swing high after a sustained rally off recent lows. A confirmed break above that level would expose the $73,000 region on further strength. On the downside, a close back below $62,800, this trade’s stop-loss level, would call the recent uptrend into question and open the way toward $59,500.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) a confirmed daily or weekly close above the $67,000 swing high; (2) broad risk-asset sentiment tied to the Nasdaq 100’s chip-stock revival; (3) any regulatory or ETF-flow headlines; (4) Treasury yield and Dollar direction into next week’s FOMC meeting; (5) altcoin-complex strength, including XRP, as a read on breadth.
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XRP
Fundamental Backdrop
XRP/USD is trading near $1.11, consolidating after this month’s rally but lagging Bitcoin’s advance to a one-month high, with technical coverage split between a bullish triangle-breakout setup and a bearish descending-channel structure that has capped every recovery attempt. Ripple’s payments network is now live in more than 90 payout markets, a supportive medium-term backdrop even as near-term price action stays capped by overhead resistance.
Technical Outlook
The token is holding just below the 50-day EMA at $1.14 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1.13, with a mid-range RSI near 51 and a positive MACD histogram hinting that selling pressure is easing rather than reversing. A confirmed break above the $1.24-$1.28 supply zone would be needed to confirm a stronger reversal and open the way toward $1.35. On the downside, a close back below $1.030, this trade’s stop-loss level, would call the near-term base into question and open the way toward $0.98.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) a confirmed break above the $1.13-$1.14 EMA and Fibonacci cluster; (2) broader altcoin-complex participation as Bitcoin tests its $67,000 swing high; (3) any fresh Ripple payments or ETF-flow headlines; (4) South Korean crypto-market activity, which has recently diverged from Bitcoin; (5) broad risk sentiment tied to U.S. equities and the Dollar.
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U.S. Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
U.S. Session Summary — Tuesday, 21 July 2026 (Live Update)
Tuesday’s U.S. session is defined by a genuinely risk-on equity tape running alongside two unresolved geopolitical and trade threads. Nasdaq 100 futures are up more than 1.3% near 29,165 as chip stocks stage a second day of gains following last week’s punishing semiconductor selloff, with South Korea’s KOSPI up over 2% overnight on the same theme and Nvidia edging higher after taking a stake in AI cloud provider Nebius; General Motors, Halliburton and 3M report earnings today ahead of Wednesday’s closely watched Alphabet results. The Dollar is broadly firm, with USD/CHF trading near 0.8105 as safe-haven flows tied to the escalating US-Iran conflict keep the Swiss Franc offered, and USD/CAD holding near 1.4020 after President Trump unveiled fresh 50% tariffs on Canadian autos, dairy, alcohol and chemicals, due to take effect in 30 days, though Canadian crude oil imports were exempted. Brent crude is trading near $89.20 a barrel, easing off Monday’s brief push above $90 after Iran signalled openness to mediated talks even as the US continued strikes and confirmed a third American service-member death. Gold is holding just above the $4,000 line, near $4,030, as safe-haven demand squares off against a hawkish Fed repricing that has pushed September hike odds to roughly 55% and December odds to about 80%, a shift reinforced by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. The US 5-year Treasury yield sits near 4.38%, close to a multi-month high alongside the broader curve, with the 10-year near 4.57-4.60% and the 2-year near 4.16%, as markets brace for the Fed’s July 28-29 meeting. In digital assets, Bitcoin has touched a one-month high near $66,160, within reach of the $67,000 swing high that could confirm a bullish monthly engulfing pattern and open a path toward $73,000, while XRP consolidates near $1.11, capped below its $1.14 50-day EMA. Highest-conviction session idea: buy Nasdaq 100 dips toward 28,700, targeting 29,700 — a genuine chip-sector revival into a pivotal Big Tech earnings week is a real tailwind, though the unresolved US-Iran conflict and the new Canada tariff dispute remain genuine tail risks that could quickly sour risk appetite.
For the individual instruments: USD/CHF buy dips toward 0.8060, stop 0.8020, target 0.8150 — safe-haven Dollar demand tied to the Iran conflict is a genuine tailwind, though SNB intervention risk is a real headwind. USD/CAD buy dips toward 1.3970, stop 1.3920, target 1.4110 — the fresh Canada tariff escalation is a genuine tailwind, though the crude-oil exemption and firm Brent prices are a real risk to the setup. Gold buy dips toward $3,985, stop $3,930, target $4,110 — persistent safe-haven demand is a genuine tailwind, though rising Fed hike odds are a real headwind. Brent Crude buy dips toward $87.00, stop $84.50, target $92.50 — the unresolved Hormuz standoff is a genuine tailwind, though tentative diplomatic signals are a real risk to the setup. Nasdaq 100 buy dips toward 28,700, stop 28,300, target 29,700 — the chip-stock revival into earnings week is a genuine tailwind, though a hawkish Fed repricing is a real headwind for richly valued growth names. US 5Y Yield buy dips toward 4.30%, stop 4.20%, target 4.55% — oil-driven inflation repricing and a hawkish Fed are genuine tailwinds for higher yields, though a swift de-escalation in the Middle East is a real risk to the setup. BTC/USD buy dips toward $64,500, stop $62,800, target $69,000 — the approach to the $67,000 swing high and a potential bullish monthly pattern are genuine tailwinds, though broad risk-asset sensitivity to Fed policy is a real risk. XRP buy dips toward $1.070, stop $1.030, target $1.150 — a constructive triangle setup is a genuine tailwind on a confirmed breakout, though the competing bearish descending-channel structure is a real risk to the setup. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are further escalation or de-escalation headlines from the US-Iran conflict, any Canadian government response to the new tariffs, pre-FOMC signalling from Fed officials ahead of the July 28-29 meeting, and today’s and this week’s earnings results. Size positions accordingly, and note that the geopolitical and trade-policy backdrop remains exceptionally fluid and carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply intraday.
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