Bitcoin Breaks Above $80,000 for the First Time Since May, Gold Touches a Three-Month High Near $4,700, USD/CAD Holds Firm as the Tariff War Widens, and Wall Street Futures Climb Ahead of Nvidia and the Jackson Hole Week | Technical Analysis – U.S. Session | 25 August 2026 | Capital Street FX
Bitcoin Breaks Above $80,000 for the First Time Since May, Gold Touches a Three-Month High Near $4,700, USD/CAD Holds Firm as the Tariff War Widens, and Wall Street Futures Climb Ahead of Nvidia and the Jackson Hole Week
USD/CHF · USD/CAD · Gold · Brent Crude Oil · Nasdaq 100 · US 20Y · BTC/USD · Dogecoin — live coverage through the U.S. trading session
U.S. Market News — Live Now, Ongoing Session, 25 August 2026
Top-moving headlines shaping the live U.S. session, updated through the New York morning
Bitcoin Tops $80,000 for First Time Since May as Short Squeeze Extends Rally
Bitcoin briefly climbed as much as 2.9% to touch $81,257 on Tuesday before easing to trade near $79,300, marking its first move above $80,000 since mid-May. The rally has been fuelled by roughly $1.9 billion of net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past week, more than $4 billion of forced short-position liquidations, and renewed optimism tied to the Treasury’s expanded long-term bond-buyback programme, even as the token remains well below its October peak near $126,000.
CryptoUS Expands Iran Sanctions to “Sever Tehran’s Economic Lifelines,” China Not Exempt
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has broadened Monday’s “Operation Economic Outcast” campaign, warning that countries still trading with Tehran, including China, will face a wind-down deadline before unilateral penalties apply. Iran has vowed retaliation and reiterated warnings over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, even as oil continues to flow through the waterway at levels close to pre-escalation norms, with traders still uncertain whether the measures will meaningfully disrupt actual crude supply.
Geopolitics & SanctionsGold Hits Three-Month High Near $4,700 Before Paring Gains to $4,637
Gold futures opened Tuesday at $4,710 an ounce, their highest level in more than three months, before easing back to around $4,637 in early trading. The debasement trade that fuelled bullion’s 65% rally through 2025 is back in focus after the Treasury’s expanded bond-buyback programme, layered on top of persistent Middle East tension and structural concern over the U.S. fiscal position, with investors also watching Wednesday’s core PCE print and Friday’s Jackson Hole keynote.
Precious MetalsUSD/CAD Firm as Trump Sets 50% Tariffs on Canadian Autos From January 2027
USD/CAD is holding near 1.3861 after President Trump said tariffs on all Canadian cars, trucks, automotive parts and steel would rise to 50% effective 1 January 2027, escalating a dispute that began when trade talks collapsed late last week. Prime Minister Mark Carney has vowed a “dollar for dollar” retaliation from 8 September, and the deepening rift is casting further doubt over the broader USMCA framework even as talks with Mexico proceed on a separate track.
Trade & FXWall Street Futures Firm Ahead of Nvidia Earnings and Wednesday’s Core PCE
Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are all pointing higher on Tuesday, with Nasdaq 100 futures up roughly 0.6%, building on Monday’s mixed close in which the S&P 500 slipped 0.24% and the Nasdaq lost 0.55% while the Dow eked out a gain. Nvidia’s results after Tuesday’s close and Wednesday’s core PCE inflation print are the week’s clearest catalysts for the AI trade and the broader rate outlook, alongside Friday’s Jackson Hole keynote from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
EquitiesBrent Extends Slide Toward $91 as Sanctions Fail to Disrupt Hormuz Flows
Brent crude is trading near $91.58 a barrel, down about 0.6% on the day and extending Monday’s roughly 2.5% sell-the-news drop, as traders conclude that Washington’s expanded Iran sanctions have so far done little to slow actual crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Long-end Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 20-year near 5.05% and the 10-year holding around 4.71%, as structural fiscal-sustainability concerns continue to keep a floor under borrowing costs.
Energy & RatesLive · Ongoing session · Updated through the New York morning, Tuesday 25 August 2026
U.S. Session Economic Calendar — 25 August 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through the U.S. trading day and the week ahead
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | Expanded Iran Sanctions — “Operation Economic Outcast” | Bessent warns countries trading with Tehran, including China, face a wind-down deadline | 🔴 CRITICAL | Oil and safe-haven flows remain sensitive to any sign the measures could disrupt Hormuz shipments |
| 🇺🇸Today, After the Close | Intuit (INTU) Q4 Earnings | First major software print of the week; guidance watched for AI-competition commentary | 🟢 MEDIUM | A secondary read on software demand ahead of Wednesday’s much larger Nvidia event |
| 🇺🇸🇩🇩Ongoing | US-Canada Trade War — 50% Auto Tariffs From 1 Jan 2027 | Canada’s “dollar for dollar” retaliation set to begin 8 September | 🔴 CRITICAL | Keeping USD/CAD firm and casting doubt over the future of the broader USMCA framework |
| 🇺🇸10:00 AM ET | US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug) & New Home Sales (Jul) | A secondary read on household sentiment and housing demand ahead of Wednesday’s PCE | 🟢 MEDIUM | A soft print would reinforce the case for a more dovish Fed tone into Jackson Hole |
| 🇺🇸Wednesday | Nvidia (NVDA) Q2 Earnings & US Core PCE Price Index (Jul) | The market’s biggest single-stock event of the week, plus the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge | 🔴 CRITICAL | The clearest swing factor for the AI trade, the Dollar and the broader rate outlook this week |
| 🇺🇸Thu–Sat, 27–29 Aug | Jackson Hole Symposium — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh | Warsh delivers his first keynote as Fed Chair on Friday; theme is “Financial Innovation” | 🔴 CRITICAL | Seen as the single biggest swing factor for the Dollar and global risk appetite this week |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | Long-End Yields Elevated, US 20Y Near 5.05% | National debt and the Treasury’s bond-buyback expansion keep long yields in focus | 🟢 MEDIUM | Structural fiscal-sustainability concerns keep a floor under long-end yields into Jackson Hole |
U.S. Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s eight key instruments
USD/CHF
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CHF is trading near 0.7990, close to its lowest levels in several months, as the Swiss franc’s safe-haven status continues to draw support from the expanded Iran sanctions campaign and the widening US-Canada tariff dispute. With no major U.S. data on the Tuesday calendar until this morning’s consumer confidence print, the pair’s near-term path is likely to stay tethered to broader risk sentiment and any fresh escalation out of the Middle East.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal remains tilted toward further softness, with the pair struggling to sustain moves back above its 50-day average near 0.8080 on recent attempts. A confirmed break below 0.7970 would expose the 0.7850 zone and put the 52-week low back in view, while a rebound above the 0.8090 pivot risks a squeeze toward 0.8180, with any fresh Iran headlines or Swiss National Bank commentary the clearest sources of two-way risk.
USD/CAD
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CAD is holding near 1.3861 after President Trump confirmed that tariffs on all Canadian autos, trucks, automotive parts and steel will rise to 50% from 1 January 2027, extending a dispute that began when trade talks collapsed late last week. With Brent slipping again today and Prime Minister Carney’s “dollar for dollar” retaliation set for 8 September, the double headwind of tariff escalation and softer oil — a key Canadian export — continues to weigh on the Loonie even as the broader Dollar itself stays comparatively soft against other G10 peers.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal remains constructive for USD/CAD, with the pair holding above its 50-day average after last week’s brief pullback. A confirmed break above 1.3900 would expose the 1.4050 zone and put the 52-week high back in view, while a slip below the 1.3780 pivot risks a retracement toward 1.3680, with any softening in US-Canada rhetoric or a sharper reversal in oil prices the clearest sources of two-way risk into September’s tariff deadline.
Gold
Fundamental Backdrop
Gold opened Tuesday at $4,710 an ounce, its highest level in more than three months, before easing back to around $4,637 as some traders locked in profit. The Treasury’s expanded long-term bond-buyback programme has revived the debasement trade that helped drive bullion’s 65% rally through 2025, and that dynamic is now layering on top of persistent Iran-related uncertainty and structural unease over the U.S. fiscal position tied to the $40 trillion-plus national debt.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal remains firmly constructive, with price holding well above its 50-day average after a fresh multi-month high earlier in the session. A confirmed break back above $4,700 would open the door to a retest of the year’s record high near $5,600, while a deeper pullback below the $4,560 pivot risks a retracement toward $4,470, with Wednesday’s core PCE print and Friday’s Jackson Hole keynote the clearest sources of two-way risk into the weekend.
Brent Crude Oil
Fundamental Backdrop
Brent crude is trading near $91.58 a barrel, down about 0.6% on the day and extending Monday’s sharp sell-the-news drop that followed the initial Iran sanctions announcement. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s newly expanded “Operation Economic Outcast” campaign now targets buyers of Iranian oil including China, but traders note that shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have so far continued at levels close to pre-escalation norms, undercutting the immediate supply-risk premium even as the underlying geopolitical standoff remains unresolved.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal has turned cautious after last week’s rally faded, with price slipping back below its 20-day average following the two-session slide. A confirmed break below $90.00 would expose the $87.00 zone, while a rebound above the $93.50 pivot risks a squeeze back toward $96.00, with any sign of actual Hormuz disruption or a harder Chinese response to secondary sanctions the clearest source of a sharp reversal higher.
Nasdaq 100
Fundamental Backdrop
Nasdaq 100 futures are up around 0.6% near 29,240, building on Monday’s mixed close in which the broader Nasdaq lost 0.55% while the Dow eked out a small gain, as weakness among AI-linked semiconductor names offset strength elsewhere. Attention is squarely on Nvidia’s results due after Tuesday’s close, the single biggest scheduled catalyst for the AI trade this week, alongside Wednesday’s core PCE print and Friday’s Jackson Hole keynote from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal remains constructive despite recent chop, with the index still comfortably above its 200-day average even after a rough August for several individual mega-cap constituents. A confirmed break above 29,600 would expose the 30,000 handle and put the index back within reach of its 52-week high, while a slip below the 28,700 pivot risks a retracement toward 28,200, with Nvidia’s guidance and Wednesday’s inflation data the clearest sources of two-way risk.
US 20Y
Fundamental Backdrop
The 20-year Treasury yield is holding near 5.05%, easing modestly on the day but still elevated versus its levels earlier in the year, as long-end borrowing costs remain sensitive to the ongoing fiscal-sustainability debate around the national debt and the Treasury’s expanded long-dated bond-buyback programme. The shorter end of the curve is comparatively calm, with the 10-year near 4.71% and the 2-year around 4.24%, leaving the curve moderately steep into Wednesday’s core PCE print and Friday’s Jackson Hole keynote.
Technical Outlook
Yields have trended higher across the long end in recent weeks, with the 20-year holding above its 50-day average despite today’s modest pullback. A confirmed move above 5.10% would expose the 5.25% zone, while a deeper retracement below the 4.95% pivot risks a slide toward 4.80%, with any dovish surprise from Fed Chair Warsh’s Friday address the clearest source of a sharper move lower in yields.
BTC/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
Bitcoin briefly touched $81,257 on Tuesday, its first move above $80,000 since mid-May, before easing back to trade near $79,300, up around 1.6% on the day. The rally has been driven by a confluence of bullish catalysts: roughly $1.9 billion of net U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows over the past week, more than $4.3 billion of forced short-position liquidations, and renewed risk appetite tied to the Treasury’s expanded bond-buyback programme, even though the token remains well below its October peak near $126,000.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal has turned firmly bullish after an eight-day rally that has added more than 20%, with price now testing its 100-day average from below for the first time in months. A confirmed break above $81,000 would expose the $86,000 zone, while a pullback below the $76,000 pivot risks a retracement toward $72,000, with the durability of ETF inflows and this week’s broader risk tone the clearest sources of two-way risk.
Dogecoin
Fundamental Backdrop
Dogecoin is trading near $0.0906, little changed on the day and consolidating roughly 9% below last week’s high near $0.0999, as the token largely tracks Bitcoin’s broader momentum without a fresh catalyst of its own. The wider memecoin category has offered only a thin bounce alongside Bitcoin’s push above $80,000, with elevated interest rates and a still-cautious risk backdrop capping enthusiasm for higher-beta altcoins for now.
Technical Outlook
The daily signal is mixed after last week’s sharp more-than-20% rally, with price consolidating just above its rising 50-day average. A confirmed break above $0.0950 would expose the $0.1050 zone and open the door to a retest of the year’s highs, while a slip below the $0.0820 pivot risks a deeper retracement toward $0.0740, with Bitcoin’s own follow-through the clearest driver of DOGE’s next directional move.
Frequently Asked Questions — Tuesday’s U.S. Session
Quick answers to the questions traders are asking during today’s live session
Why did Bitcoin break above $80,000 today?
Why is Gold pulling back from its three-month high even though the fundamental backdrop looks supportive?
Why is USD/CAD staying firm when the broader Dollar is comparatively soft?
Why is Brent crude still falling if the US just expanded sanctions on Iran?
What should traders watch for the rest of the U.S. session and into the week ahead?
U.S. Session Summary — Tuesday, 25 August 2026 (Live Update)
Tuesday’s U.S. session has opened on a firmer, risk-on note relative to Monday, with Wall Street futures higher as traders digest Washington’s expanded “Operation Economic Outcast” sanctions campaign against Iran and look ahead to Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings and core PCE print. Bitcoin is the session’s clear standout, having broken above $80,000 for the first time since mid-May before settling near $79,300, up around 1.6% on the day, as ETF inflows, short-covering and the Treasury’s expanded bond-buyback programme continue to fuel an eight-day rally of more than 20%. Gold touched a fresh three-month high near $4,710 an ounce before easing back to around $4,637 as some traders booked profit, while USD/CHF remains soft near 0.7990 on persistent safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc. USD/CAD is holding firm near 1.3861 after President Trump confirmed 50% tariffs on Canadian autos, trucks, parts and steel from 1 January 2027, deepening the rift with Ottawa ahead of Canada’s planned 8 September retaliation. Brent crude continues to slide, trading near $91.58 a barrel and down about 0.6% on the day, as traders conclude the expanded Iran sanctions have so far done little to disrupt actual crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Nasdaq 100 futures are firmer near 29,240, up around 0.6% and building on Monday’s close near 29,077, as investors position ahead of Nvidia’s results after today’s close. The 20-year Treasury yield sits near 5.05%, still elevated on structural fiscal-sustainability concerns even as the 10-year holds around 4.71%. Dogecoin is consolidating near $0.0906, tracking Bitcoin’s broader momentum without a fresh catalyst of its own. Highest-conviction session idea: favour Bitcoin, Gold and USD/CAD longs while the sanctions, tariff and debasement-trade headlines dominate positioning, but size Brent Crude Oil and Nasdaq 100 exposure cautiously ahead of Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings and core PCE print, and treat Friday’s Jackson Hole keynote as the week’s genuine source of two-way risk.
Looking beyond today’s session, several threads stand out as the major market drivers this week: Nvidia’s earnings after Tuesday’s close loom as the single biggest single-stock catalyst for risk appetite, arriving alongside Jackson Hole/Fed policy signals from Chair Kevin Warsh’s Friday keynote and Wednesday’s core PCE inflation print, both of which will shape the path for already elevated long-end Treasury yields. Nvidia’s results will also set the tone for AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks more broadly, a theme that has driven much of the recent volatility in US equities. Layered on top of that is the unresolved tariffs/Iran risk backdrop from today’s headlines, meaning traders should keep a close eye on the upcoming macro calendar for the rest of the week.
For the individual instruments: USD/CHF sell rallies toward 0.8090, stop 0.8180, target 0.7850 — safe-haven franc demand is a genuine tailwind, though a dovish surprise from further Iran developments is a real source of two-way risk. USD/CAD buy dips toward 1.3780, stop 1.3680, target 1.4050 — the escalating tariff war is a genuine tailwind, though any softening in US-Canada rhetoric is a real source of two-way risk. Gold buy dips toward $4,560, stop $4,470, target $4,780 — the debasement trade and safe-haven demand are a genuine tailwind, though a sharp Dollar rebound is a real source of two-way risk. Brent Crude Oil sell rallies toward $93.50, stop $96.00, target $87.00 — unresolved Hormuz risk is a genuine source of two-way risk, though the sanctions’ limited real-world bite so far is a genuine headwind for prices. Nasdaq 100 buy dips toward 28,700, stop 28,200, target 30,000 — resilient earnings momentum is a genuine tailwind, though Nvidia’s results are a real source of two-way risk. US 20Y buy dips in yield toward 4.95%, stop 4.80%, target 5.25% — structural fiscal-sustainability concerns are a genuine tailwind, though a dovish Jackson Hole surprise is a real source of two-way risk. BTC/USD buy dips toward $76,000, stop $72,000, target $86,000 — continued ETF inflows are a genuine tailwind, though profit-taking after a strong run is a real source of two-way risk. Dogecoin buy dips toward $0.0820, stop $0.0740, target $0.1050 — Bitcoin’s broader momentum is a genuine tailwind, though the lack of a DOGE-specific catalyst is a real source of two-way risk. The decisive variable for the rest of today’s session is Nvidia’s earnings after the close, with Wednesday’s core PCE print and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Friday Jackson Hole keynote the clearest scheduled catalysts for the remainder of the week. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s data calendar can mask genuine event risk building into Wednesday and Friday.
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