Asian Session Report: Dollar Near 17-Month High, Yen Firms on Hot Tokyo CPI and Oil Holds Near High.
Asian Session Report: Dollar Near 17-Month High, Yen Firms on Hot Tokyo CPI and Oil Holds Near Highs as Traders Brace for US Payrolls
Asian shares fell on Friday as wild swings in bonds and currencies kept traders cautious ahead of US payrolls. The Nikkei is down 0.7%, the dollar index is near 102, the 10-year Treasury yield is about 5.26% and USD/JPY trades near 157.87 after hot Tokyo inflation of 2.7%.
Platinum is near $1,737, CBOT wheat near $6.871, the Kospi trades near 6,985, Dogecoin near $0.096 and Litecoin near $69.74. Focus: US non-farm payrolls at 12:30 GMT, Japanese intervention risk and Gulf headlines.
Prices captured around 04:45 GMT (10:15 IST)Top Stories Moving the Market
Asia stocks slip as bond and FX swings dominate
MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan is down 0.5% and heads for a 1.7% weekly loss, while the Nikkei is still set for a 3.1% weekly gain. Mainland China is shut for a holiday until Wednesday. Nasdaq futures are up 0.3% after Wall Street’s late rebound.
Yen firms on hot Tokyo CPI as intervention risk lingers
Tokyo underlying inflation accelerated to 2.7% in September, strengthening the case for more BoJ hikes. Tokyo’s repeated warnings keep a lid on dollar rallies, but the pair is on track for a third straight weekly gain.
Wheat rebounds after USDA-driven slump
CBOT December wheat trades near $6.871, above Thursday’s $6.8275 settlement and recovering part of the week’s drop. Black Sea disruption keeps the market about 15% higher since 1 July.
Treasury yields ease from 24-year highs
The 10-year touched 5.34% overnight, the highest since 2002, after the biggest quarterly rise in 32 years. Dovish Fed comments pulled the 2-year down 10bp to about 4.80%, and October hike odds fell to 25% from 69% a week ago.
Oil holds near highs on Gulf build-up
Brent is above $101 and WTI near $92 as the US weighs sending a third carrier group and about 10,000 troops to the Gulf. China has suspended oil product exports, adding to fuel-shortage fears.
Gold range-bound below $4,200 as USD stays firm
The dollar index sits near its highest since April 2025 and oil-driven inflation fears keep yields elevated. Gold needs a move through $4,200 to challenge the $4,230 retracement.
Bitcoin pops toward $87K in Asia
BTC has bounced from the low $83Ks on thin Asia volumes, with the $85,000 level now being tested as support. ETF flows were negative on Wednesday.
Aussie steadies as RBA hike bets revive
The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September, and traders are again pricing a November move. The risk-off tone and a strong dollar still cap AUD below 0.6950.
Technical Summary & Trade Ideas
USD/JPY
FX · Yen firms on hot Tokyo CPI, intervention risk caps rallies
USD/JPY trades just under 158 as Tokyo underlying inflation of 2.7% and the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions (debating more hikes) support the yen. The BoJ policy rate is 1.25%, the highest since 1995, and Japan and the US jointly intervened on 31 July after the pair broke 163. Support is the 4-hour 100-period SMA at 156.52; FXStreet says buyers want acceptance above 159.00 to extend the three-week uptrend. A close below 157.50 would weaken the long bias.
| Last157.87 |
| Support157.50 / 156.52 |
| Resistance158.50 / 159.00 |
| Intervention ref.163.00 (31 Jul) |
AUD/JPY
FX · Hawkish RBA vs risk-off and yen strength
AUD/JPY has slid from about 112 on 21 September. The RBA’s hike to 4.60% and revived November hike bets help the Aussie, but weaker Asian risk appetite, the China holiday and possible Japanese intervention weigh on the cross. A break under 108.90 targets 108.40; a reclaim of 110.72, the 20-day average, would remove the bearish tilt.
| Last109.44 |
| Support108.90 / 108.40 |
| Resistance110.72 / 112.06 |
| RBA cash rate4.60% |
Platinum (XPT/USD)
Metals · Near one-month lows on yields and oil
Platinum trades near $1,737, close to one-month lows, as elevated oil prices, a firm dollar and Treasury yields pressure precious metals. It remains about 40% below its January record of $2,923. A break under the $1,690 low opens the mid-$1,600s, while a close above $1,775 (the 50-day average) would ease the bearish bias.
| Last$1,737 |
| Support1,713 / 1,690 |
| Resistance1,757 / 1,775 |
| Record high$2,923 (Jan) |
Wheat (CBOT Dec)
Agriculture · Rebound after USDA-driven slump
Dec SRW wheat is near $6.871, up from Thursday’s $6.8275 settlement after a USDA-driven drop. A larger winter crop (about 1.02bn bu vs 987M expected) hit Chicago and Kansas City, while a smaller spring crop (450M vs 473M) supported Minneapolis. Wheat is still roughly 15% higher since 1 July on Black Sea disruption, with Matif near EUR236/t. A Saudi tender for 535,000t closes Friday.
| Last$6.871 (Dec) |
| KC HRW Dec$7.375 |
| Support6.73 / 6.67 |
| Resistance7.04 / 7.19 |
Kospi
Equities · Opens lower despite Wall Street rebound
The Kospi opened down 33 points at 6,938 after closing near 6,971 on Thursday. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, over half the index, trade around 273,500 won and 1.77m won. Foreign investors were heavy net sellers in September, and the index sits well below its June peak above 9,000. A hold above Tuesday’s 6,870 close keeps the range intact; below it exposes 6,800.
| Last6,985 |
| Open6,938 |
| Support6,876 / 6,696 |
| Resistance7,100 / 7,323 |
Dogecoin (DOGE/USD)
Crypto · Rebounding with Bitcoin, below $0.10
DOGE trades near $0.096 as Bitcoin bounces toward $86.5K. It briefly reclaimed $0.10 in late September, its highest since June, before fading. The 20-day average near $0.0913 is first support, then the 50-day near $0.0866, but the 50-day EMA still sits below the 200-day, so the structure is fragile. A US-regulated perpetual futures launch on Kalshi adds access; spot ETF inflows remain tiny.
| Last$0.0960 |
| Support0.0913 / 0.0866 |
| Resistance0.1000 / 0.1100 |
| 52-wk range0.068-0.270 |
Litecoin (LTC/USD)
Crypto · Consolidating after a sharp weekly breakout
LTC trades near $69.74 after breaking above the $60 level that had capped rebounds since April, and is testing resistance around $67.65. Interest has been lifted by Grayscale’s proposal to convert its Litecoin Trust to an ETF. Holding $66.30 keeps the breakout alive; a loss of $62.76 (the 20-day average) would target the 50-day near $55.16.
| Last$69.74 |
| Support66.30 / 62.76 |
| Resistance72.00 / 76.00 |
| 52-wk range39.39-135.56 |
What to Expect from the Next Session
- US payrolls at 12:30 GMT (18:00 IST). Consensus is about +90K with unemployment steady at 4.1%; hourly earnings matter most after ISM prices paid surged. A hot print can lift USD/JPY through 159.00 and pressure platinum, gold and crypto; a miss can send USD/JPY back toward 156.50.
- Japanese intervention risk. Officials checked rates on 18 September and intervened on 31 July. A rapid move through 159-160 would raise odds of action, hitting USD/JPY and AUD/JPY together.
- Gulf headlines and oil. More US forces in the region or further tanker attacks would keep Brent above $100, feed inflation fears and weigh on Kospi and AUD/JPY. A diplomatic opening would reverse that.
What Is Moving the Market
Dollar and yields
The dollar index is near 102, its highest since April 2025, with the 10-year at 5.26% after touching a 24-year high of 5.34%. Fed speakers pushed back on an immediate October hike, but a December hike is still fully priced.
Yen and Tokyo
Hotter Tokyo inflation, a 1.25% BoJ rate and repeated warnings from Finance Minister Katayama support the yen, even as US yields keep USD/JPY near 158.
Oil and the Gulf
A widening US military build-up and attacks on tankers keep Brent above $100, while China’s export ban on oil products adds to fuel-shortage worries.
Asia risk appetite
MSCI Asia ex-Japan is down 0.5% and heads for a 1.7% weekly loss, mainland China is closed for a holiday, and foreign selling of Korean shares weighs on the Kospi.
Economic Calendar / Events
| Time | Country | Event | Result / Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 23:30 GMT | JP | Tokyo CPI (Sep) | Underlying 2.7% y/y, up from about 1.8% in Aug |
| Today 00:00 GMT | KR | Kospi open | Opened 6,938; now ~6,985 (+0.2%) |
| Today 02:10 GMT | Asia | Reuters Asia wrap | MSCI Asia ex-Japan -0.5%, Nikkei -0.7% |
| Today 12:30 GMT | US | Non-farm payrolls (Sep) | Cons. ~+90K vs 162K prior; unemployment 4.1% |
| Today | SA | Saudi wheat tender | 535,000t, offers due |
| Until Wed 7 Oct | CN | Mainland markets closed | Public holiday |
| 22 Oct 23:30 GMT | JP | National CPI (Sep) | Next BoJ-hike clue |
| 28-29 Oct | US / CA | Fed and BoC decisions | Policy gaps drive crosses |
Summary
The Asian session is cautious and headline-driven: USD/JPY holds near 157.87 under intervention and BoJ-hike pressure, AUD/JPY sits near 109.44, platinum near $1,737 and CBOT wheat near $6.871. The Kospi trades near 6,985, while DOGE near $0.096 and LTC near $69.74 ride a Bitcoin bounce. Everything now hinges on US payrolls at 12:30 GMT.
FAQ
Q:Why is the yen firmer despite high US yields?
A:Hot Tokyo inflation of 2.7%, BoJ hike debate and Tokyo’s intervention warnings offset the dollar’s yield advantage, so USD/JPY is stuck just under 158.
Q:What are the key levels today?
A:USD/JPY 157.50/158.03, AUD/JPY 108.90/110.72, platinum $1,713/$1,757, CBOT wheat $6.73/$7.04, Kospi 6,876/7,100, DOGE $0.0913/$0.1000, LTC $66.30/$72. These are conditional references, not forecasts.
