Oil Tops $90 as US Yields Stay High Ahead of FOMC Minutes
Asian Session Report: Nikkei Slips Below 70,100 as Oil Climbs on Houthi Attacks and US Yields Hold Above 5.3%, USD/JPY Firms at 158.43 and AUD/USD Stalls at 0.6972 Before FOMC Minutes
Asian markets are softer on Wednesday despite record closes for the S&P 500 (7,818.93, +0.58%) and Nasdaq (27,599.79, +0.45%). The Nikkei is about 70,080 (-0.86%) and MSCI Asia ex-Japan is down 0.3%, while mainland China is shut. WTI is $90.38 and Brent $101.65 after Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia, and the 10-year yield is near 5.31%. The dollar index is about 101.9-102.0.
USD/JPY is 158.43, AUD/USD 0.6972, aluminium $3,137.50, Dec corn 497.25¢, Nikkei 70,080, Solana $117.88 and BNB $779. The RBI hiked to 5.50%. Focus: the 10-year auction and Wednesday’s 18:00 GMT FOMC minutes.
Top Stories Moving the Market
Yen softens as BoJ hike bets recede
USD/JPY holds near a 1.5-week high as Ueda’s cautious tone cut October hike odds to about 12% and US yields climbed again; Tokyo intervention risk looms near 160 (FXStreet, Reuters).
Aussie stalls under 0.7000
AUD/USD snapped a three-day winning run as RBA November hike odds sank to about 20% and the dollar firmed ahead of the FOMC minutes (FXStreet, LSEG).
Aluminium steadies after a 5% monthly slide
The metal is up 14% on the year but off 5% in a month, with a firm dollar weighing while Gulf smelter and shipping risks keep a bid underneath (Trading Economics, Tacto).
Corn hugs a 5-week low after USDA stocks shock
Dec corn sits near $4.97 after September 1 stocks hit 2.095bn bushels, 35% above last year, with harvest pressure building and funds trimming longs (Farm Progress, Rio Times).
Tokyo slips despite Wall Street records
The Nikkei gave back part of Tuesday’s 1.05% gain to a three-month high of 70,684 as oil and 5.3% US yields weighed; TOPIX is down about 0.5% (Reuters, Investing.com).
Solana slides with Bitcoin
SOL dipped under $120 as BTC lost $85,000; the Solana Foundation’s DvP settlement launch with J.P. Morgan input is the supportive headline (Coinbase, Traders Union).
BNB pauses below $800
BNB trades in a $778-789 range after a failed push toward $800 while the wider crypto tape corrects, with BTC at $84,022 (CoinGecko, FXStreet).
Oil jumps on Houthi attacks and a Gulf storm
WTI is back above $90 and Brent at $101.65 as Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and a storm bound for US producing areas outweigh recovering Gulf exports (Reuters).
Technical Summary & Trade Ideas
USD/JPY
FX · BoJ patience, US yieldsUSD/JPY sits above the 158.38 pivot with RSI near 56, capped by the 100-day SMA at 159.55 and the upper Bollinger Band near 159.80. Rabobank notes markets fear intervention close to 160, and Japan reportedly checked rates on 18 September. Holding 158.00 keeps 159.55 in view; a slip under it points to the 156.90 mid-band. Levels are conditional.
AUD/USD
FX · RBA hold, firm dollarThe pair is below its 100-day SMA near 0.7055 with RSI around 37, after four weekly declines. UOB flags 0.6985 as strong resistance and 0.6866 as the next major support; a clean break above 0.6985 would fade the bearish case. With RBA hike odds near 20% the Aussie leans on the dollar and yields. Levels are conditional.
Aluminium (LME)
Metals · Gulf supply vs. strong dollarAluminium is 14% higher over a year but has fallen about 5% in a month, with LME 3-month near 3,100 last week. Tacto’s base case is 3,100-3,400 over four to six weeks, with a 3,400-3,700 risk case if Gulf smelting or logistics are hit. A close above 3,223 would reopen 3,300; a break under 3,100 targets 3,000. Levels are conditional.
Corn (Dec CBOT)
Agri · Harvest pressure, big stocksDec corn settled $4.9725 on 5 October (latest confirmed), down 30.5 cents last week after the USDA stocks surprise. It holds the 4.95 low, with 4.88 next and resistance at 5.00 and the 50-day average near 5.075. Fund longs fell to about 378k contracts and a strong dollar adds a headwind. Levels are conditional.
Nikkei 225
Equities · Oil, yields, chipsTokyo trades just above 70,000 after Tuesday’s 70,684 close, the highest in three months, with the 52-week high at 72,832. FXStreet’s Kshitij sees 72,000 while price holds 70,000. Rising oil and 5.3% US yields are the drag; a close back over 70,700 revives the push, while a break under 70,000 opens 69,000. Levels are conditional.
Solana (SOL/USD)
Crypto · ETF flows, risk appetiteSOL is under its short-term averages after slipping through 118.22 support, with the 24-hour range at 117.22-121.99. Solana ETF net inflows have cooled to about $2.4M weekly. A reclaim of 120.51 (Ichimoku Kijun) would ease pressure; a loss of 117.22 exposes 115. Levels are conditional.
BNB (BNB/USD)
Crypto · Range under $800BNB is up about 2.5% on the week but rejected near $800 and trades in a $778-789 band. A breakout over $800 targets roughly $930 on TradingView ideas, while failure keeps it range-bound; $760 and the 7 September close of $740 are support. Feeds differ by exchange. Levels are conditional.
What to Expect from the Next Session
- Treasury auction and FOMC minutes. A weak 10-year auction or hawkish minutes (18:00 GMT) would lift the dollar: USD/JPY toward 159.55, AUD/USD under 0.6895, and pressure on crypto and gold.
- Gulf oil and the Houthi-Saudi front. A storm heading for US producing regions and further strikes keep WTI above $90, feeding yields and hitting Asian importers such as Japan; easing flows would reverse it.
- Yen and China’s return. Tokyo intervention risk rises near 160, ahead of the 30 October BoJ meeting, and Shanghai reopens on 8 October, which can move AUD, aluminium and the Nikkei.
What Is Moving the Market
Dollar, yields and the Fed
Traders cut October hike odds to about 19% from 50% a week ago after soft jobs and PCE data, yet Fed’s Schmid said more tightening is needed. The 10-year near 5.3% and a dollar index near 102 stay supportive (Reuters, FXStreet).
Oil and Middle East supply
Brent topped $101 as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia offset Vitol’s estimate that about 12 million bpd of crude has left the region over 7-10 days. Higher oil is raising inflation and yield worries (Reuters, Investing.com).
Policy divergence across Asia
The RBI hiked 25bps to 5.50%, the BoJ looks set to pause in October (about 12% odds), and the RBA is seen on hold in November (about 20%). That backdrop favours USD/JPY over AUD/USD (FXStreet, LSEG).
Commodities and crypto tone
Aluminium is down 5% in a month while corn trades near five-week lows on large US stocks. Bitcoin lost $85,000 (now $84,022) and Ethereum $2,619, dragging Solana and BNB (Trading Economics, FXStreet).
Economic Calendar / Events
| Time | Country | Event | Result / Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today (done) | IN | RBI rate decision | Repo raised 25bps to 5.50%; stance shifted to calibrated tightening |
| Today | US | 10-year Treasury auction | Demand test with yields at 24-year highs |
| Today 18:00 GMT | US | FOMC minutes (15-16 Sep) | Tests tightening guidance; October hike odds are about 19-22% |
| Thu 8 Oct | US | 30-year auction; jobless claims | Long-end demand and labour follow-up |
| Thu 8 Oct | CN | Shanghai reopens after holiday | Mainland China closed today (Golden Week) |
| Fri 9 Oct | US | UMich sentiment (prelim.); CFTC positioning | Inflation expectations; speculative positioning |
| 27-28 Oct | US | FOMC meeting | Hold priced about 78% |
| 30 Oct | JP | BoJ policy meeting | Hike odds about 12%; about 90% by December |
Summary
The Asian session is cautious: USD/JPY 158.43, AUD/USD 0.6972, aluminium $3,137.50, Dec corn 497.25¢, Nikkei 70,080, Solana $117.88 and BNB $779 reflect a firm dollar, oil above $90 and 24-year-high US yields. The 10-year auction, the 18:00 GMT FOMC minutes and Gulf headlines are the next tests.
FAQ
Q:Why is Asia lower after Wall Street records?
A:Oil rebounded on Houthi attacks and a Gulf of Mexico storm, and US yields near 5.3% weigh on equities, particularly for oil-importing Japan, ahead of the FOMC minutes.
Q:What are the key levels today?
A:USD/JPY 158.00/159.55, AUD/USD 0.6895/0.7000, aluminium $3,100/$3,223, Dec corn $4.95/$5.00, Nikkei 70,000/70,700, SOL $117.22/$120.51, BNB $760/$800. These are conditional references, not forecasts.
