Sterling Holds 1.3377 After Hot UK Inflation, the Aussie Tops 0.7020 and the Franc Firms, With EUR/CHF at 0.9258 | Technical Analysis – Forex Report | 21 Oct 2026
Forex Today | Wednesday 21 October 2026
Sterling Holds 1.3377 After Hot UK Inflation, the Aussie Tops 0.7020 and the Franc Firms, With EUR/CHF at 0.9258
Market Overview
Currencies were mixed on Wednesday. At about 07:38 GMT AUD/USD was 0.70228 (+0.27%), NZD/USD 0.56851 (+0.01%), EUR/CHF 0.92584 (−0.08%), GBP/USD 1.33774 (−0.01%), USD/CAD 1.40550 (−0.03%) and USD/CHF 0.82474 (+0.02%). The dollar index is near 102, the US 10-year yield is about 5.1% and Brent closed below $109 on Tuesday as conflicting headlines on US-Iran talks kept oil choppy (FXStreet, CNBC, Bloomberg, Trading Economics). UK CPI came in hotter at 3.5%, New Zealand CPI follows at 21:45 GMT, and the Fed, Bank of Canada and RBNZ all decide on 28 October. We read the session as a dollar that is firm but not breaking out, with the Aussie and kiwi holding recoveries, sterling stuck under 1.3400 and the franc strong against the euro.
Key highlights
- AUD/USD: Price is 0.70228 after four daily gains but under the 0.70345 average; 0.6976 is the key floor.
- NZD/USD: Price is 0.56851 above a broken channel; Q3 CPI at 21:45 GMT sets RBNZ hike odds.
- EUR/CHF: Price is 0.92584 under all three averages with RSI 33.93; SNB intervention talk limits downside.
- GBP/USD: Price is 1.33774 just under 1.3387 and 1.3407 after UK CPI rose to 3.5%.
- USD/CAD: Price is 1.40550 on its averages after four down days; oil supports the loonie.
- USD/CHF: Price is 0.82474 on a rising channel floor; 0.8301 caps rallies.
What’s Moving Forex Today
UK CPI jumps to 3.5% but sterling stays flat near 1.3377
Annual inflation rose to 3.5% in September against 3.4% expected and 3.1% in August, with core at 2.8% and motor fuel up 29.8%. It backs a first Bank of England hike in more than three years on 5 November, yet the pound barely moved because the hike was expected and UK borrowing rose to £24.5 billion in September.
New Zealand CPI at 21:45 GMT decides the RBNZ hike
NZD/USD pulled back from its highest since 23 September ahead of Q3 CPI, forecast at 3.8% a year after 4.1%, in line with the RBNZ’s 3.9% projection. Swaps price about an 80% chance of a hike to 3.00% on 28 October, so a miss would hurt the kiwi and a beat would extend its recovery.
Aussie holds above 0.7000 on hawkish RBA talk and China growth
AUD/USD gained for a fourth day as RBA officials kept rate-hike bets alive after four hikes this year, and China’s Q3 GDP grew 4.5%. Deputy Governor Hauser speaks today, Australian CPI is due on 28 October and the RBA meets on 2–3 November.
Franc rises to a three-month high against the euro
EUR/CHF is at its lowest in three months on French debt stress, and Commerzbank says it is nearing the zone where the SNB threatened stronger intervention. USD/CHF fell about 2.1% between 14 and 16 October as an AI-stock selloff pulled yields lower. The SNB is at 0% and next meets on 10 December.
Oil near $109 keeps the Canadian dollar firm
USD/CAD eased to about 1.4060 after four straight daily falls. Brent closed below $109 on Tuesday after a range of more than $6 on conflicting headlines about US-Iran talks, and the Bank of Canada decides on 28 October with a hold at 2.25% expected.
Dollar near 102 with the 10-year yield about 5.1% and a Fed hold priced
The dollar index is near 102 and the 10-year yield is about 5.1%. The Fed (3.75%–4.00%) decides on 28 October with a hold about 85% priced, and Chair Warsh declined to prejudge the decision. A hawkish tone would lift the dollar against the Aussie, kiwi and sterling.
Key Drivers Ahead
Six events that set direction for AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF. All times are GMT.
- NZ Q3 CPI
- Q3
- Forecast 3.8% y/y; sets RBNZ hike odds
- RBNZ decision
- 28 Oct
- Hike to 3.00% about 80% priced
- Australian CPI
- Q3
- Key input for the RBA on 3 November
- Bank of Canada
- 28 Oct
- Hold at 2.25% expected; new forecasts
- FOMC decision
- 28 Oct
- Hold about 85% priced; tone is key
- ECB decision
- 29 Oct
- EUR/CHF and franc reaction; BoE follows on 5 Nov
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, valid for today’s session. A 1-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | Short | 0.7075 | 0.7125 | 0.7010 | 0.6950 | 1.3 / 2.5 | Low |
| NZD/USD | Long | 0.5650 | 0.5600 | 0.5740 | 0.5775 | 1.8 / 2.5 | Medium |
| EUR/CHF | Short | 0.9315 | 0.9365 | 0.9235 | 0.9200 | 1.6 / 2.3 | Low |
| GBP/USD | Long | 1.3340 | 1.3280 | 1.3410 | 1.3480 | 1.2 / 2.3 | Medium |
| USD/CAD | Short | 1.4120 | 1.4200 | 1.4010 | 1.3900 | 1.4 / 2.8 | Medium |
| USD/CHF | Short | 0.8300 | 0.8355 | 0.8220 | 0.8190 | 1.5 / 2.0 | Low |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. Prices are read at about 07:38 GMT on 21 October from TradingView daily charts (OANDA and FXCM feeds); every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
US yields, oil and the 28 October central-bank cluster are the swing factors, with New Zealand CPI at 21:45 GMT the first test today.
Dollar rebounds: higher yields, a hawkish Fed and a weak NZ CPI
A hawkish Fed tone, a rise in the 10-year yield or an oil spike would lift the dollar and hit the Aussie, kiwi and sterling first.
- AUD/USD0.6976, then 0.6940
- NZD/USD0.5631, then 0.5580
- EUR/CHF0.9235, then 0.9200
- GBP/USD1.3330, then 1.3255
- USD/CAD1.4192, then 1.4300
- USD/CHF0.8301, then 0.8350
Dollar softens: Iran talks ease oil and the kiwi CPI holds up
Easing oil, firm NZ CPI and a cautious Fed would let the dollar slip and push pairs toward their long averages.
- AUD/USD0.7035, then 0.7077
- NZD/USD0.5700, then 0.5764
- EUR/CHF0.9317, then 0.9342
- GBP/USD1.3407, then 1.3480
- USD/CAD1.4010, then 1.3900
- USD/CHF0.8218, then 0.8190
AUD/USD | Australian Dollar / US Dollar, OANDA feed
AUD/USD Analysis: Price Bounces Back to Retest the Underside of a Broken Channel Above 0.7000
0.70228 +0.00186 (+0.27%) at about 07:38 GMT Day range 0.70006–0.70296
Outlook: Bias is neutral to higher while 0.6976 holds. The Aussie is in a fourth straight daily gain on hawkish RBA comments and China’s 4.5% Q3 GDP, but price is still under the 0.70345 average and the broken channel floor, so rallies face supply.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.6940
- Support 1
- 0.6976
- Resistance 1
- 0.7035
- Resistance 2
- 0.7077
- Price (0.70228) is under the 0.70345 and 0.70770 averages and above the 0.69762 average; the 0.7024 Fibonacci level and the 0.70345 average are the first hurdles.
- RSI 52.15 is above its signal line at 39.60, a recovery from weak territory; a close under 0.6976 would put the October low near 0.6900 back in play.
Setup: Short at 0.7075, stop 0.7125, targets 0.7010 and 0.6950. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.5, low conviction.
NZD/USD | New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar, OANDA feed
NZD/USD Analysis: Price Holds Above a Broken Channel Roof Ahead of Today’s CPI
0.56851 +0.00005 (+0.01%) at about 07:38 GMT Day range 0.56718–0.56885
Outlook: Bias is higher while 0.5631 holds. NZD/USD stepped back from its highest since 23 September, and New Zealand Q3 CPI at 21:45 GMT tonight decides whether an RBNZ hike to 3.00% on 28 October (about 80% priced) stays on the table.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.5580
- Support 1
- 0.5631
- Resistance 1
- 0.5700
- Resistance 2
- 0.5764
- Price (0.56851) is above the 0.56314 average and under the 0.57635 and 0.57747 averages; the long average near 0.5775 is the main cap.
- RSI 52.45 is above its signal line at 36.03, a clear recovery from the 14 October low near 0.5555; a CPI miss against the 3.8% forecast would test the 0.5631 average.
Setup: Long at 0.5650, stop 0.5600, targets 0.5740 and 0.5775. Reward:risk 1.8 / 2.5, medium conviction.
EUR/CHF | Euro / Swiss Franc, OANDA feed
EUR/CHF Analysis: Price Stays Under All Averages After Breaking a Rising Channel
0.92584 −0.00078 (−0.08%) at about 07:38 GMT Day range 0.92538–0.92760
Outlook: Bias is lower while 0.9317 caps rallies. The franc is at a three-month high against the euro on French debt worries, but Commerzbank notes price is near the area where the SNB threatened stronger intervention, which limits further downside.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.9200
- Support 1
- 0.9235
- Resistance 1
- 0.9317
- Resistance 2
- 0.9342
- Price (0.92584) is under the 0.93168, 0.93418 and 0.93785 averages; the 0.9317 average and the broken channel floor are the first resistance.
- RSI 33.93 is under its signal line at 37.64 and close to oversold, so a bounce is likely before any new low; the recent low near 0.9225 is the first floor.
Setup: Short at 0.9315, stop 0.9365, targets 0.9235 and 0.9200. Reward:risk 1.6 / 2.3, low conviction.
GBP/USD | British Pound / US Dollar, FXCM feed
GBP/USD Analysis: Price Breaks a Falling Channel and Tests the Long Averages Near 1.3400
1.33774 −0.00014 (−0.01%) at about 07:38 GMT Day range 1.33643–1.33849
Outlook: Bias is higher while 1.3255 holds. UK CPI rose to 3.5% in September against 3.4% expected, with core at 2.8%, which backs a Bank of England hike on 5 November, but sterling stayed flat after the release as it meets resistance near 1.3400.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3255
- Support 1
- 1.3330
- Resistance 1
- 1.3407
- Resistance 2
- 1.3480
- Price (1.33774) is above the 1.32554 average and just under the 1.33866 and 1.34072 averages; the 1.3407 area also matches the old descending trendline.
- RSI 56.76 is above its signal line at 43.31, a rising reading; a daily close above 1.3410 opens 1.3480, while a close under 1.3330 puts the channel breakout in doubt.
Setup: Long at 1.3340, stop 1.3280, targets 1.3410 and 1.3480. Reward:risk 1.2 / 2.3, medium conviction.
USD/CAD | US Dollar / Canadian Dollar, OANDA feed
USD/CAD Analysis: Price Falls for Four Days to Sit on Its Averages Inside a Wide Rising Channel
1.40550 −0.00040 (−0.03%) at about 07:38 GMT Day range 1.40535–1.40678
Outlook: Bias is lower while 1.4192 caps rallies. USD/CAD has fallen for four sessions as Brent near $109 supports the Canadian dollar, and price now sits on the 1.4043 and 1.4009 averages ahead of the Bank of Canada on 28 October.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3900
- Support 1
- 1.4010
- Resistance 1
- 1.4192
- Resistance 2
- 1.4300
- Price (1.40550) is level with the 1.40433 and 1.40087 averages and well under the 1.41920 average; the channel roof near 1.4300 capped the early-October high.
- RSI 42.00 is under its signal line at 61.65, a weak reading that is not oversold; a close under 1.4009 would open 1.3900, while a bounce meets the 1.4192 average.
Setup: Short at 1.4120, stop 1.4200, targets 1.4010 and 1.3900. Reward:risk 1.4 / 2.8, medium conviction.
USD/CHF | US Dollar / Swiss Franc, FXCM feed
USD/CHF Analysis: Price Tests the Floor of a Rising Channel Under Its Short Average
0.82474 +0.00019 (+0.02%) at about 07:38 GMT Day range 0.82376–0.82636
Outlook: Bias is neutral to lower while 0.8301 caps rallies. USD/CHF fell about 2.1% from 0.8395 on 14 October to 0.8218 on 16 October as an AI-stock selloff pulled yields down and lifted the franc, and it now sits on the channel floor and the bottom of the 0.8245–0.8365 range UOB flagged in early October.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.8190
- Support 1
- 0.8218
- Resistance 1
- 0.8301
- Resistance 2
- 0.8350
- Price (0.82474) is under the 0.83009 average and above the 0.81909 and 0.81290 averages; the 0.8301 average and the 16 October low at 0.8218 are the key lines.
- RSI 48.10 is under its signal line at 57.61, a neutral reading; a close under the channel floor and 0.8218 would open the 0.8190 average.
Setup: Short at 0.8300, stop 0.8355, targets 0.8220 and 0.8190. Reward:risk 1.5 / 2.0, low conviction.
Conclusion
Sterling and the kiwi have the best structure today, with both above broken channel roofs. We prefer buying GBP/USD pullbacks while 1.3255 holds and NZD/USD pullbacks while 0.5631 holds, selling USD/CAD bounces under 1.4192, and treating the AUD/USD, EUR/CHF and USD/CHF shorts as lower-conviction because each sits near a floor or an event. The nearest risks are New Zealand CPI at 21:45 GMT today, the RBNZ at 01:00 GMT, the Bank of Canada at 13:45 GMT and the FOMC at 18:00 GMT on 28 October, then the ECB on 29 October and the BoE on 5 November. A daily close above 1.3410 would confirm the GBP/USD breakout.
Trade AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did sterling not rally on hotter UK inflation?
A Bank of England hike on 5 November was already expected, so the 3.5% reading mostly confirmed it. GBP/USD also meets resistance at 1.3400, and UK borrowing rose to £24.5 billion in September, which offset the data.
Why is EUR/CHF falling?
French debt worries support the franc, and the SNB is at 0% with no change expected before 10 December. Commerzbank says price is near the zone where the SNB threatened stronger intervention, so further falls may be slower.
What does New Zealand CPI mean for NZD/USD?
Q3 CPI at 21:45 GMT is forecast at 3.8% a year. A reading below the RBNZ’s 3.9% projection would cut the roughly 80% odds of a hike on 28 October and could test the 0.5631 average; a firm print would favour 0.5700 and 0.5764.
How does the Fed on 28 October affect AUD, CAD and CHF pairs?
A hold is about 85% priced, but a hawkish message would lift US yields above 5.1% and the dollar, pressuring AUD/USD and NZD/USD and supporting USD/CAD and USD/CHF. A cautious tone would do the opposite.
