Fed Day Showdown: Dollar Surges to a Two-Week High as EUR/USD Sinks to 1.1115 and Sterling Cracks 1.3270 | Technical Analysis – Forex Report | 28-10-2026
LIVE NOW | Forex Today | Wednesday 28 October 2026 | Fed decision today, 18:00 GMT
Fed Day Showdown: Dollar Surges to a Two-Week High as EUR/USD Sinks to 1.1115 and Sterling Cracks 1.3270
Market Overview
The dollar is at a two-week high, and four events inside six hours will decide whether it breaks higher or hands the gains back. The dollar index sits near 102.40, its strongest since 14 October, and the majors are already bending to it. EUR/USD has slipped to 1.1115 with RSI under 30, GBP/USD has dropped 0.24% to 1.3273 and lost its 20-day average, USD/CHF has jumped 0.27% to 0.8312, and USD/JPY is pinned at 157.97 with Tokyo threatening to step in near 160. AUD/JPY at 111.08 is the lone breakout after hot Australian inflation, and USD/CAD at 1.4061 is stuck on its 50 and 200-day averages.
The clock runs fast: the UK Budget lands around 12:30 GMT, the Bank of Canada follows at 13:45 GMT with a hike about 80% priced, the Fed decides at 18:00 GMT and Chair Warsh speaks at 18:30 GMT. A hold at 3.75% to 4.00% is a near certainty at about 91%, but a December hike is still priced near 80%, and with oil near $100 and the Iran conflict unresolved, any hint that Warsh is leaning toward it can send the dollar through resistance. A hawkish Fed pushes EUR/USD toward 1.1095, GBP/USD toward 1.3200 and USD/JPY toward 159; a balanced tone lets oversold euro and sterling snap back toward their averages.
Key highlights (07:17 GMT technical snapshot)
- USD/JPY: Price is 157.966 at the roof of a triangle, level with the 157.95 average, with RSI 52.23; 158.50 and 157.48 are the levels.
- AUD/JPY: Price is 111.082 after breaking a falling trendline from 115, under the 111.36 and 112.02 averages, with RSI 53.94.
- EUR/USD: Price is 1.11147 in a falling channel under all three averages, with RSI 29.65 in oversold territory.
- GBP/USD: Price is 1.32725 under the broken rising channel and the 1.3385 averages, with RSI 44.79.
- USD/CAD: Price is 1.40614 on the 1.40476 and 1.40236 averages, with RSI 45.62 ahead of the BoC.
- USD/CHF: Price is 0.83122 above the 0.82884 average and the rising channel floor, with RSI 57.03.
What’s Moving Forex Today
Dollar holds a two-week high as the Fed decision nears
The dollar index rose 0.3% on Tuesday to about 102.40, its highest since 14 October, and held there in Asia. Futures price a hold at about 91%, but the market is focused on whether the Fed and Chair Warsh keep a December hike alive, which is priced near 80%. The euro was near 1.1129 and sterling near 1.3307 in early Asia before both slipped.
Bank of Canada is expected to hike to 2.50% at 13:45 GMT
Money markets price about an 80% chance of a 25 basis point increase, the first since 2023, and a Reuters poll found 19 of 34 economists expect it. The Monetary Policy Report, due with the decision, and Governor Macklem’s press conference at 14:30 GMT are likely to set the reaction, with funds holding a large bet against the Canadian dollar.
UK Chancellor Healey delivers his first Autumn Budget today
Markets want a plan that keeps gilt yields calm, and the Debt Management Office publishes its gilt sales plan alongside it. Sterling has slid for four days toward 1.33 and is trading cautiously into the speech.
Tokyo repeats its warning on the yen as USD/JPY holds 158
Finance Minister Katayama said on Tuesday that Japan is ready to take decisive action in the currency market, which analysts read as pressure on yen sellers rather than an imminent move. Rate-hike expectations for the BoJ keep the yen supported on dips.
Hot Australian CPI lifts RBA hike bets as the kiwi falls
Australian headline inflation rose 0.8% in September and 4.3% over the year, above forecasts, and traders lifted bets on an RBA rate hike. The Aussie touched a one-month high near 0.7050 against the dollar, while the New Zealand dollar slid after the RBNZ unexpectedly held at 2.75%.
Euro stays heavy as the dollar firms
French fiscal worries and a weak French flash PMI limit support for the euro, while ECB hike expectations offer little lift. FXStreet notes the pair is under its key averages, while oversold readings leave room for a short bounce.
Swiss franc stays weighed by the rate gap with the US
The SNB’s policy rate is 0%, while the Fed sits at 3.75% to 4.00% with a December hike in play. Swiss 10-year yields near 0.47% show safe-haven demand, but the rate gap and carry trades keep the franc on the back foot.
Key Drivers for the Rest of Today
Seven things that set direction in the dollar, euro, sterling, yen, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Aussie. All times are GMT.
- UK Autumn Budget
- Today
- Wed 28 Oct, about 12:30 GMT
- Gilt yields and fiscal credibility drive sterling ahead of the Fed
- US goods trade balance
- 12:30
- Wed 28 Oct, 12:30 GMT
- Advance September goods deficit; consensus is near −$130 billion
- Bank of Canada decision
- 13:45
- Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 GMT
- A 25 bp hike to 2.50% is priced near 80%; Macklem speaks at 14:30 GMT
- EIA crude inventories
- 14:30
- Wed 28 Oct, 14:30 GMT
- Oil moves feed rate-hike bets and the dollar ahead of the Fed
- Fed decision and Warsh
- 18:00
- Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 GMT
- Hold at 3.75% to 4.00% priced; press conference at 18:30 GMT sets December odds
- Iran talks and oil headlines
- Ongoing
- Any time
- Oil near $100 feeds inflation and rate-hike bets and lifts the dollar
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, valid for the rest of today’s session. A 1-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Short | 158.50 | 159.30 | 157.50 | 156.60 | 1.2 / 2.4 | Medium |
| AUD/JPY | Long | 110.50 | 109.60 | 112.00 | 113.50 | 1.7 / 3.3 | Low |
| EUR/USD | Short | 1.1190 | 1.1250 | 1.1095 | 1.0980 | 1.6 / 3.5 | Medium |
| GBP/USD | Short | 1.3350 | 1.3415 | 1.3200 | 1.3140 | 2.3 / 3.2 | Low |
| USD/CAD | Short | 1.4130 | 1.4200 | 1.4025 | 1.3965 | 1.5 / 2.4 | Low |
| USD/CHF | Long | 0.8270 | 0.8185 | 0.8390 | 0.8460 | 1.4 / 2.2 | Medium |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. Prices are chart quotes at about 07:17 GMT and chart readings are from the daily charts captured at the same time. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger, and the market can gap through levels around the BoC at 13:45 GMT, the Fed at 18:00 GMT and Chair Warsh’s press conference at 18:30 GMT. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
The Bank of Canada at 13:45 GMT, the Fed at 18:00 GMT and Warsh’s press conference at 18:30 GMT are the swing factors.
Hold with a live December hike: higher yields and a stronger dollar
A hold with firm guidance would lift the dollar and push EUR/USD and GBP/USD toward their lower supports, while USD/JPY tests the 159 area where Tokyo has capped rallies.
- USD/JPY158.50, then 159.25
- AUD/JPY110.32, then 109.60
- EUR/USD1.1095, then 1.0980
- GBP/USD1.3200, then 1.3140
- USD/CAD1.4155, then 1.4300
- USD/CHF0.8390, then 0.8460
Balanced tone and cooler December odds: oversold euro and sterling bounce
A softer Warsh tone, a calm UK Budget reaction or progress in the Iran talks would ease hike bets and let oversold EUR/USD and GBP/USD recover toward their averages, while USD/JPY drops toward the 157.48 average.
- USD/JPY157.48, then 156.60
- AUD/JPY111.36, then 112.02
- EUR/USD1.1203, then 1.1407
- GBP/USD1.3385, then 1.3420
- USD/CAD1.4025, then 1.3965
- USD/CHF0.8190, then 0.8144
US Dollar / Japanese Yen | FXCM feed
USD/JPY Analysis: Price Presses the Roof of a Symmetrical Triangle Near 158 With Tokyo Warning Against a Move to 160
157.966 +0.018 (+0.01%) today at about 07:17 GMT Day range 157.748 to 158.041
Outlook: Bias is neutral while the triangle holds, with a lean lower below 158.50. USD/JPY is near 157.97, level with the 157.95 short average and pushing at the falling roof drawn from the July high near 164, with the Fed tonight and Japan’s finance minister keeping an intervention threat alive near 160.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 156.60
- Support 1
- 157.48
- Resistance 1
- 158.50
- Resistance 2
- 159.25
- Price (157.966) is level with the 157.95 short average, above the 157.48 medium average and under the 159.25 long average; 159.00 has capped every rally since early October, and Tokyo’s warnings make 160.00 the line where intervention risk is highest.
- RSI 52.23 is just above its signal at 51.80, a neutral reading; a close under 157.48 targets 156.60, while a close over 158.50 puts the 159.25 average in play.
Setup: Short at 158.50, stop 159.30, targets 157.50 and 156.60. This is a fade of the triangle roof into the area Tokyo has defended; a hawkish Fed tone would lift the pair through it, so a 1-hour close over 159.30 cancels the idea. Reward:risk 1.2 / 2.4, medium conviction.
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen | OANDA feed
AUD/JPY Analysis: Price Breaks Above a Falling Trendline From 115 as Hot Australian CPI Backs RBA Hike Bets
111.082 +0.104 (+0.09%) today at about 07:17 GMT Day range 110.932 to 111.352
Outlook: Bias is mildly higher while 110.32 holds. AUD/JPY is near 111.08 after a push through the falling line from the August high near 115, helped by Australia’s hot September inflation and rising RBA hike bets, but it faces the 111.36 and 112.02 averages and a yen that could jump on intervention.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 109.60
- Support 1
- 110.32
- Resistance 1
- 111.36
- Resistance 2
- 112.02
- Price (111.082) is above the 110.32 short average and has broken the falling trendline, but the 111.36 medium average and the 112.02 long average cap the move; the early-October low near 108.60 marks the floor of the larger pattern.
- RSI 53.94 is above its signal at 47.68, a base of rising momentum; a close over 111.36 targets 112.02, while a close under 110.32 puts 109.60 in play.
Setup: Long at 110.50, stop 109.60, targets 112.00 and 113.50. The entry is a retest of the broken trendline and the 110.32 average; a risk-off move or a Japanese intervention would hit the idea, and a 1-hour close under 109.60 cancels it. Reward:risk 1.7 / 3.3, low conviction.
Euro / US Dollar | FXCM feed
EUR/USD Analysis: Price Slides Inside a Falling Channel With RSI Below 30 Ahead of the Fed
1.11147 −0.00098 (−0.09%) today at about 07:17 GMT Day range 1.11130 to 1.11320
Outlook: Bias is lower while 1.1203 caps rallies, but the pair is stretched. EUR/USD is near 1.1115 and has fallen from the August high above 1.17, with a firm dollar, French fiscal worries weighing, though RSI under 30 warns that a bounce can come first.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.0980
- Support 1
- 1.1095
- Resistance 1
- 1.1203
- Resistance 2
- 1.1407
- Price (1.11147) is under all three averages, with the 1.12025 short average and the channel roof near 1.12 forming the first supply; the 1.1095 area is the next support, followed by the channel floor near 1.0980.
- RSI 29.65 is under its signal at 33.54 and in oversold territory, so a bounce toward 1.1203 is possible; a close under 1.1095 targets 1.0980, while a close over 1.1203 opens 1.1407.
Setup: Short at 1.1190, stop 1.1250, targets 1.1095 and 1.0980. The entry is a bounce into the short average and the channel roof; a balanced Fed tone that cools December hike bets would squeeze it, and a 1-hour close over 1.1250 cancels it. Reward:risk 1.6 / 3.5, medium conviction.
British Pound / US Dollar | FXCM feed
GBP/USD Analysis: Price Slips Under the 1.3280 Average Ahead of the UK Budget and Fed, Below a Broken Channel
1.32725 −0.00322 (−0.24%) today at about 07:17 GMT Day range 1.32724 to 1.33123
Outlook: Bias is lower while 1.3385 caps rallies. Sterling is near 1.3273 on a fourth-day slide from the 22 October five-week high, under the broken rising channel and the 1.3385 averages, with the UK Autumn Budget and the Fed both due today.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3140
- Support 1
- 1.3200
- Resistance 1
- 1.3385
- Resistance 2
- 1.3420
- Price (1.32725) is under the 1.32802 short average and the 1.33853 and 1.33874 averages, which now align with the underside of the broken channel; the 1.3200 area and the October low near 1.3140 are the floors.
- RSI 44.79 is under its signal at 48.51; a close under 1.3200 targets 1.3140, while a close over 1.3385 puts the 22 October high near 1.3420 in play.
Setup: Short at 1.3350, stop 1.3415, targets 1.3200 and 1.3140. The entry is a bounce toward the 1.3385 cluster; a credible budget could lift sterling, so conviction is low, and a 1-hour close over 1.3415 cancels it. Reward:risk 2.3 / 3.2, low conviction.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar | OANDA feed
USD/CAD Analysis: Price Sits on the 50 and 200 Day Averages at 1.40 as a Bank of Canada Hike Is Priced for 13:45 GMT
1.40614 +0.00098 (+0.07%) today at about 07:17 GMT Day range 1.40414 to 1.40686
Outlook: Bias is neutral to lower while 1.4155 caps rallies. USD/CAD is near 1.4061 on a cluster of averages at 1.4024 and 1.4048, after falling from the October high near 1.43, with a 25 basis point Bank of Canada hike about 80% priced and the Monetary Policy Report the swing factor.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3965
- Support 1
- 1.4025
- Resistance 1
- 1.4155
- Resistance 2
- 1.4300
- Price (1.40614) is on the 1.40476 medium and 1.40236 long averages and under the 1.41549 short average, so 1.4155 is supply; the six-week low near 1.3969 and the 1.4025 cluster are the supports.
- RSI 45.62 is under its signal at 50.30; a close under 1.4025 targets 1.3965, while a close over 1.4155 opens the 1.43 roof. Funds hold one of their largest bets against the Canadian dollar since 2006, so a hawkish BoC can squeeze it.
Setup: Short at 1.4130, stop 1.4200, targets 1.4025 and 1.3965. The entry is a bounce toward the 1.4155 short average; a dovish BoC hike or a hawkish Fed would lift the pair, so conviction is low, and a 1-hour close over 1.4200 cancels it. Reward:risk 1.5 / 2.4, low conviction.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc | FXCM feed
USD/CHF Analysis: Price Bounces From the Rising Channel Floor and Climbs Above the 0.8288 Average
0.83122 +0.00220 (+0.27%) today at about 07:17 GMT Day range 0.82732 to 0.83132
Outlook: Bias is higher while 0.8190 holds. USD/CHF is near 0.8312 after a rebound from the floor of a rising channel and a close over the 0.82884 short average, backed by a wide rate gap between a Fed at 3.75% to 4.00% and an SNB at 0%, with the Fed decision tonight the risk.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.8144
- Support 1
- 0.8190
- Resistance 1
- 0.8390
- Resistance 2
- 0.8460
- Price (0.83122) is above the 0.82884, 0.82081 and 0.81442 averages, with the channel floor and the 0.8208 medium average forming a stacked base; the early-October high near 0.84 is the first cap.
- RSI 57.03 is above its signal at 53.26; a close over 0.8390 targets 0.8460 near the channel roof, while a close under 0.8190 puts the 0.8144 long average in play.
Setup: Long at 0.8270, stop 0.8185, targets 0.8390 and 0.8460. The entry is a dip to the 0.8288 short average and the area above the channel floor; a balanced Fed that cools December hike bets would hit it, and a 1-hour close under 0.8185 cancels it. Reward:risk 1.4 / 2.2, medium conviction.
Conclusion
The dollar is firm into the Fed, so we prefer selling bounces in EUR/USD near 1.1190, GBP/USD near 1.3350 and USD/JPY near 158.50, with all three tied to averages and broken or falling channel lines. USD/CAD is a low-conviction sell near 1.4130 and depends on the Bank of Canada’s guidance. AUD/JPY near 110.50 and USD/CHF near 0.8270 are dip-buying ideas on rising support, though a hawkish Fed or a yen intervention can disrupt both. The session risks are the UK Budget around midday, the Bank of Canada at 13:45 GMT, the Fed at 18:00 GMT and the press conference at 18:30 GMT. A 1-hour close over 1.1250 in EUR/USD or over 159.30 in USD/JPY would change the picture.
Trade USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the dollar firm today?
The dollar index is near 102.40, its highest since 14 October, because traders expect the Fed to hold tonight while keeping a December hike in play, which is priced near 80%. Oil near $100 and the lack of a US-Iran deal add support.
When is the Fed decision?
The Fed announces its decision on Wednesday 28 October at 18:00 GMT, with Chair Warsh’s press conference at 18:30 GMT. A hold at 3.75% to 4.00% is priced near 90%, so the guidance on December matters more than the decision.
What is the Bank of Canada expected to do?
The Bank of Canada decides at 13:45 GMT and is expected to raise its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, with about an 80% chance priced. The new Monetary Policy Report and Macklem’s 14:30 GMT press conference will set the loonie’s reaction.
Where are the key levels for EUR/USD and USD/JPY?
EUR/USD has support at 1.1095 and then 1.0980, with resistance at 1.1203 and 1.1407. USD/JPY has support at 157.48 and 156.60, with resistance at 158.50 and the 159.25 long average, and Tokyo’s intervention warnings stand near 160.
