Bitcoin Clings to 77,800 After the Record $6.3B Binance Hack, ETFs Shed $643M and Ether Lost Its Trendline | Technical Analysis – Crypto Report | 02 Nov 2026
Crypto Live | Monday 2 November 2026 | 11:30 GMT | London midday session
Bitcoin Clings to 77,800 After the Record $6.3B Binance Hack, ETFs Shed $643M and Ether Lost Its Trendline
Market Overview
Crypto is bouncing, not recovering: all five coins still trade under their key averages, Friday’s ETF exodus has not reversed, and the 15:00 GMT ISM is the one scheduled shock big enough to decide whether the Friday lows hold or give way. As of 11:30 GMT, Bitcoin (77,776, −0.58%) is defending the 76,546 slow average in the lower half of a falling channel after a flush toward 76,300, with RSI at 38.10 and 80,555 the ceiling. Ether (2,281.9, +0.41%) is the only coin in the green, but it is stuck under the rising trendline it lost on Friday. Solana (93.92, −0.50%) is pinned to its triangle floor near 92 with RSI at 28.52, the most oversold of the five, XRP (1.2488, −0.02%) hovers just above its 1.21 floor, and Litecoin (54.78, −1.31%) is the weakest, sliding onto its 55.02 slow average.
The damage is still in the flows. Binance began reopening withdrawals on Sunday after the record $6.3B theft, yet about $3.6B left the exchange in the first nine hours. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643M on Friday, their worst day since 25 June, and Ether ETFs lost $156M in a fifth straight session of outflows. Add a December Fed hike priced near 72% and Friday’s 2.9% Nasdaq drop, and the market has little cushion. The clock is simple: US equities open at 14:30 GMT, the S&P Global PMI follows at 14:45 GMT (56.0) and the ISM lands at 15:00 GMT (54.7 against 54.5, prices paid 77.5). A hot print revives hike bets and drives all five toward their floors, starting with Bitcoin’s 76,300; a soft one opens a squeeze toward 79,200 to 80,555. Daily candles close at 00:00 GMT.
Key highlights
- Bitcoin: Price is 77,776, above the 76,546 slow average and under 80,555 and 81,934; RSI is 38.10 and 76,300 is the key support.
- Ethereum: Price is 2,281.9 under the 2,348.70 and 2,359.10 averages after losing its rising trendline; 2,266 and 2,175 are the supports.
- Solana: Price is 93.92 on the triangle floor near 92 with RSI 28.52 oversold; 98.38 caps rallies.
- XRP: Price is 1.2488 just above the 1.21 triangle floor; 1.2982 and 1.3050 are the first hurdles.
- Litecoin: Price is 54.78 on the 55.02 slow average and triangle floor; a close under 53.00 would break it.
What’s Moving Crypto Today
Binance is reopening withdrawals in phases, but about $3.6B left the exchange in the first nine hours
Binance began restoring withdrawals on Sunday, starting with Bitcoin, after the record $6.3B theft of 29 October, which took 18,270 BTC and 200,630 ETH among other assets. The Block put net outflows at about $3.64B in the first nine and a half hours. Roughly $3B of the stolen funds has been frozen, Binance has set aside $6.34B of its own money to cover losses, and Reuters reported analysts blaming North Korea.
Source: The Block, Cointelegraph, Reuters, Analytics Insight, 30 Oct–2 Nov 2026
Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643M on Friday, the most since 25 June, and Ether ETFs saw a fifth session of outflows
Spot Bitcoin funds shed $643.3M on Friday, the largest daily outflow in four months, and spot Ether funds lost $155.9M. Analysts quoted by The Block called it a sentiment shock, since the fund holdings sit with regulated custodians, but the numbers show institutions have not returned yet.
Source: The Block, PU Prime, 1–2 Nov 2026
Fed hike odds near 72% for December and a 2.9% Nasdaq drop on Friday keep risk appetite low
Early Monday reporting put the chance of a December Fed hike near 72%, with elevated oil and sticky inflation keeping tightening in focus. Friday’s Nasdaq slide, tied to AI spending worries, fed into crypto, and CoinGlass counted about $1.53B of liquidations over the 24 hours to 30 October, around 84% of them longs.
Source: PU Prime, CoinDesk, KuCoin, 30 Oct–2 Nov 2026
Total crypto market cap is $2.69T, Bitcoin dominance 58.5% and Fear & Greed has risen to 37
CoinGecko data at 01:30 GMT showed the total market down 0.5% on the day and 24-hour volume near $105B, while Bitcoin was up about 1.1% on a 24-hour basis. The Fear & Greed Index rose to 37 from 30, still in fear. Moves are measured from the 00:00 GMT open in the charts below, so daily-candle changes differ from rolling 24-hour figures.
Source: CoinGecko via Coingabbar, KuCoin, 2 Nov 2026
Solana has extended losses to a fifth straight weekly decline as its ETFs record outflows
SOL was near 95.5 early on Monday and has slipped further to about 93.9. Spot Solana ETFs recorded weekly outflows of $71.47M, and FXStreet notes the price has dropped below its key moving averages.
Source: FXStreet, 2 Nov 2026
XRP holds 1.25 as ETFs attract inflows after 1B XRP left escrow
Spot XRP funds drew $18.83M of inflows despite a roughly 16% October loss, and Ripple released 1 billion XRP from escrow on 1 November with the re-lock amount still to be confirmed. Ripple National Trust Bank also received final approval from the OCC, and BNY added XRP and RLUSD custody support.
Source: crypto.news, KuCoin, FXStreet, 1–2 Nov 2026
Key Drivers for the Rest of Today
Six things that set direction for the rest of the session in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP and Litecoin. All times are GMT.
- Binance withdrawals and hack headlines
- Live
- Ongoing, all session
- Withdrawals reopened in phases from Sunday. Further outflow figures, news on frozen funds or any new delay would move the whole market
- US equities open
- 14:30
- Mon 2 Nov, 14:30 GMT
- After Friday’s 2.9% Nasdaq drop, the cash open sets the risk tone for Bitcoin and the altcoins
- US S&P Global manufacturing PMI (final)
- 14:45
- Mon 2 Nov, 14:45 GMT
- Forecast 56.0, matching the flash; it sets up the ISM release 15 minutes later
- US ISM manufacturing PMI, prices, employment
- 15:00
- Mon 2 Nov, 15:00 GMT
- Forecast 54.7 (prior 54.5); prices paid 77.5. A hot print lifts December hike odds and pressures crypto; a miss helps
- US spot ETF flow prints
- Evening
- Mon 2 Nov, after the US close
- Daily Bitcoin and Ether fund flows are published after the close. A second heavy outflow day would deepen the bearish tone
- Daily close
- 00:00
- Tue 3 Nov, 00:00 GMT
- Crypto daily candles close at 00:00 GMT, which is the reference for the daily levels in the report
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP and Litecoin, valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC / USD) | Long | 76,400 | 75,300 | 77,800 | 79,200 | 1.3 / 2.5 | Low–Medium |
| Ethereum (ETH / USD) | Short | 2,335.00 | 2,400.00 | 2,270.00 | 2,200.00 | 1.0 / 2.1 | Medium |
| Solana (SOL / USD) | Short | 97.00 | 99.60 | 94.00 | 92.00 | 1.2 / 1.9 | Low–Medium |
| XRP (XRP / USD) | Long | 1.2250 | 1.1850 | 1.2700 | 1.2950 | 1.1 / 1.7 | Low |
| Litecoin (LTC / USD) | Short | 56.60 | 58.30 | 54.90 | 53.20 | 1.0 / 2.0 | Low–Medium |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. A third target for each coin is in its section below. Prices are feed prices from the daily charts at about 11:22 to 11:24 GMT on 2 November. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a bounce or a pullback to trigger, and the 15:00 GMT ISM release can gap prices through them. Bitcoin and XRP are counter-trend dip-buys and Ethereum, Solana and Litecoin are sell-the-bounce ideas, and the five coins are highly correlated, so a break of Bitcoin’s 76,300 floor would hit both longs together. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
The ISM at 15:00 GMT and the Binance withdrawal flow are the swing factors for the rest of today.
A strong ISM print and firm yields: the dollar rises and the coins test their floors
A reading above the 54.7 forecast, especially with prices paid near 77.5 or higher, would lift December Fed-hike odds beyond 72% and push all five coins toward their triangle and channel floors. Another large Binance outflow day or a weak US equity open would add to the pressure.
- Bitcoin76,546, then 75,000
- Ethereum2,266.10, then 2,175.00
- Solana92.00, then 86.00
- XRP1.2100, then 1.1000
- Litecoin53.00, then 49.00
A soft ISM print and calmer Binance flows: the coins retest the averages overhead
A reading under 54.7 or softer prices paid would ease yields and let Bitcoin and Ether retest their averages. Oversold Solana has the most room to bounce, and a short squeeze could extend the move after last week’s long-heavy liquidations.
- Bitcoin79,200, then 80,555
- Ethereum2,348.70, then 2,511.40
- Solana98.38, then 101.43
- XRP1.2982, then 1.3300
- Litecoin55.02, then 57.98
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) | Bitstamp feed
Bitcoin Analysis: Price Holds the Slow Average in the Lower Half of a Falling Channel as Binance Reopens Withdrawals
77,776 −457 (−0.58%) at about 11:22 GMT Previous close 78,233
Outlook: Bias is range-bound with a lower tilt while 79,200 to 80,555 caps rallies. Bitcoin is near 77,800 after Friday’s flush toward 76,300, as Binance reopens withdrawals, with the biggest ETF outflow in four months and a 72% December Fed-hike bet weighing on it.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 75,000
- Support 1
- 76,300
- Resistance 1
- 79,200
- Resistance 2
- 80,555
- Price (77,776) is above the 76,546 slow average and under the 80,555 and 81,934 averages. Main catalyst: Binance flows, ETF outflows, 15:00 GMT ISM.
- RSI 38.10 under its 43.17 average: weak but not oversold. A close above 80,555 breaks the channel top and targets 81,934; a close under 76,300 opens 75,000.
Setup: Long at 76,400, stop 75,300, targets 77,800, 79,200 and 80,550. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.5 / 3.8, low–medium conviction. Dip-buy at 76,400 near the slow average and Friday’s low, stop 75,300. Cancel if a 4-hour close below 75,300, or a hot ISM print that lifts the dollar and yields. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Ethereum (ETH/USD) | Bitstamp feed
Ethereum Analysis: Price Retests the Underside of a Broken Rising Trendline Under the 2,348.70 Average
2,281.90 +9.30 (+0.41%) at about 11:22 GMT Previous close 2,272.60
Outlook: Bias is lower while 2,348.70 to 2,359.10 caps rallies. Ether is near 2,282 after three straight daily gains, but it is still under its trendline and averages, and spot Ether ETFs have recorded five straight sessions of outflows.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 2,175.00
- Support 1
- 2,266.10
- Resistance 1
- 2,348.70
- Resistance 2
- 2,511.40
- Price (2,281.9) is under the 2,348.70, 2,359.10 and 2,511.40 averages. Main catalyst: ETF outflows (−155.9M on Friday), the Binance hack (200,630 ETH taken), 15:00 GMT ISM.
- RSI 36.43 is level with its 36.46 average: weak and flat. A close above 2,359 puts the trendline back in play; a break under 2,266 targets 2,200 and 2,175.
Setup: Short at 2,335.00, stop 2,400.00, targets 2,270.00, 2,200.00 and 2,150.00. Reward:risk 1.0 / 2.1 / 2.8, medium conviction. Sell the bounce at 2,335 under the averages, stop 2,400. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 2,400, or if Binance reserve news triggers a broad short squeeze. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Solana (SOL/USD) | Coinbase feed
Solana Analysis: Price Sits on the Rising Floor of a Triangle Under All Three Averages With RSI Oversold
93.92 −0.47 (−0.50%) at about 11:24 GMT Previous close 94.39
Outlook: Bias is lower while 98.38 to 101.43 caps rallies, with a sharp bounce possible from oversold levels. Solana is near 93.9 after a fifth straight weekly loss, and spot Solana ETFs recorded weekly outflows of $71.47M.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 86.00
- Support 1
- 92.00
- Resistance 1
- 98.38
- Resistance 2
- 101.43
- Price (93.92) is under the 98.38, 101.43 and 108.84 averages. Main catalyst: ETF outflows, Binance fallout, 15:00 GMT ISM.
- RSI 28.52 under its 35.84 average: oversold. A close under 92.00 breaks the triangle floor and targets 86; a close above 101.43 cancels the short.
Setup: Short at 97.00, stop 99.60, targets 94.00, 92.00 and 86.00. Reward:risk 1.2 / 1.9 / 4.2, low–medium conviction. Sell the bounce at 97.00 under the 98.38 average, stop 99.60. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 99.60, or if RSI turns up from oversold with a firm Bitcoin. Because RSI is oversold, take profit quickly at the first targets. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
XRP (XRP/USD) | Bitstamp feed
XRP Analysis: Price Holds Just Above the Floor of a Triangle Under the 1.2982 and 1.3050 Averages
1.2488 −0.00022 (−0.02%) at about 11:23 GMT Previous close 1.2490
Outlook: Bias is neutral to lower while 1.2982 to 1.3050 caps rallies, and the 1.21 triangle floor decides today. XRP is flat near 1.25 after a 16% October loss; spot XRP ETFs took in $18.83M despite the drop, after 1B XRP was released from escrow on 1 November.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.1000
- Support 1
- 1.2100
- Resistance 1
- 1.2982
- Resistance 2
- 1.3880
- Price (1.2488) is under the 1.2982, 1.3050 and 1.3882 averages. Main catalyst: ETF inflows against the escrow unlock, Binance fallout, 15:00 GMT ISM.
- RSI 37.02 under its 40.25 average: weak. A close above 1.3050 targets 1.33 and 1.3882; a close under 1.21 breaks the floor and opens 1.10.
Setup: Long at 1.2250, stop 1.1850, targets 1.2700, 1.2950 and 1.3300. Reward:risk 1.1 / 1.7 / 2.6, low conviction. Dip-buy at 1.2250 above the triangle floor, stop 1.1850 under Friday’s low. Cancel if a 4-hour close below 1.1850, or a hot ISM print with a firm dollar. This is a counter-trend idea, so keep size small. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Litecoin (LTC/USD) | Bitstamp feed
Litecoin Analysis: Price Slips to the Slow Average at the Floor of a Triangle as the Weakest of the Five
54.78 −0.73 (−1.31%) at about 11:24 GMT Previous close 55.51
Outlook: Bias is lower while 55.02 to 57.98 caps rallies. Litecoin is down 1.3%, the biggest daily drop of the five coins, and sits right on its slow average and the triangle floor. No coin-specific headline was found this morning, so it appears to be trading on market beta.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 49.00
- Support 1
- 53.00
- Resistance 1
- 55.02
- Resistance 2
- 57.98
- Price (54.78) is under the 55.02, 57.98 and 61.68 averages. Main catalyst: market beta from Bitcoin and ETF flows, 15:00 GMT ISM.
- RSI 36.80 under its 40.06 average: weak. A close under 53.00 breaks the triangle floor and targets 49; a close above 57.98 cancels the short.
Setup: Short at 56.60, stop 58.30, targets 54.90, 53.20 and 51.50. Reward:risk 1.0 / 2.0 / 3.0, low–medium conviction. Sell the bounce at 56.60 above today’s high, stop 58.30 above the 57.98 average. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 58.30, or a sharp Bitcoin squeeze through 80,555. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Conclusion
The trend is still lower, so we prefer selling bounces in Ethereum near 2,335, Solana near 97.00 and Litecoin near 56.60, with Solana the most stretched because RSI is oversold. Bitcoin near 76,400 and XRP near 1.2250 are dip-buys at the slow average and the triangle floor, both at low conviction against the trend. The session risks are US equities at 14:30 GMT, the S&P PMI at 14:45 GMT and the ISM at 15:00 GMT, with Binance outflow and ETF headlines able to move the market at any time. A 4-hour close under 75,300 in Bitcoin or above 2,400 in Ether would change the picture.
Trade Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP and Litecoin with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the crypto outlook for today?
Cautious and headline-driven. Prices are stabilising after the Binance hack, but all five coins remain under their key averages and the 15:00 GMT ISM manufacturing PMI is the main scheduled test.
Which crypto trade ideas are live today?
Long Bitcoin and XRP on dips; short Ethereum, Solana and Litecoin on rallies, each with a stop and three targets.
What time are the key events in GMT?
US equities open at 14:30 GMT, the S&P Global PMI at 14:45 GMT, the ISM at 15:00 GMT, ETF flow data after the US close and the daily close at 00:00 GMT. Binance headlines can arrive at any time.
Why is Bitcoin near 77,800?
It rebounded from Friday’s flush toward 76,300 as Binance reopened withdrawals, but ETF outflows and Fed-hike bets cap the recovery below 80,555.
Which coin is weakest today?
Litecoin is down 1.31% on the daily candle, while Solana has the lowest RSI at 28.52 and Ether is the only coin higher on the day.
