Bitcoin on the Brink: $1 Billion Wiped Out, 75,544 Under Siege, and US Payrolls Decide Whether $75,000 Holds | Market Outlook | 06 Nov 2026
Market in Focus | BTC/USD | Friday 6 November 2026
Bitcoin on the Brink: $1 Billion Wiped Out, 75,544 Under Siege, and US Payrolls Decide Whether $75,000 Holds
75,544 −427 (−0.56%) Open 75,983 · High 76,295 · Low 75,453 Daily chart · RSI 37.69 · Captured 05:21 GMT Live check: about 75,700–76,000 across major venues
Desk bias, next 24 hours Bearish Range 75,000–77,060, downside tilt while 77,060 caps; neutral on a four-hour close above 77,500
Market Overview
Bitcoin has erased its entire post-election rebound. In under 24 hours BTC/USD fell from about 80,900 to 75,544, a drop of roughly 5.6%, as the Nasdaq-100 collapsed 6.4% in its worst session since March 2020 and more than $1 billion of leveraged crypto positions, about $954 million of them longs, were liquidated. The contagion is still spreading: KOSPI was halted after an 8% plunge and the Nikkei has slid into a bear market. Price now clings to the floor of a descending channel, 2.0% under the 77,060 average that has flipped from support to resistance, with RSI at 37.69 and still short of oversold. Spot ETFs are bleeding, Binance is rebuilding after a $6.3 billion hack, and Trump Media has moved 4,259 BTC to an exchange. The next 24 hours are binary, with US payrolls landing at 13:30 GMT: a break below 75,000 opens 73,163 and 70,000, while a four-hour close above 77,500 would force bears to cover toward 79,635. Our bias is bearish: sell the bounce into 76,800–77,100, stop above 77,700, first target 75,200. A live check across major venues shows Bitcoin around 75,700–76,000, so 75,000 is within reach right now.
Key highlights
- Bias: Bearish below the 77,060 average; RSI 37.69 sits under its 40.42 average and is not yet oversold.
- Levels: Resistance 76,295, 77,060, 77,500, 79,635, 81,000 and 81,972; support 75,453, 75,208, 75,000, 73,163 and 70,000.
- Drivers: The tech rout and Asian contagion; spot ETF outflows; the Binance hack and Trump Media’s 4,259 BTC transfer; December Fed hike odds near 66%; Fed’s Williams at 09:30 GMT; US payrolls at 13:30 GMT; Fed’s Bowman at 17:15 GMT.
BTC/USD Technical Summary: Price Sits on the Channel Floor Below the 77,060 Slow Average
- Trend
- A descending channel from the mid-September high near 87,000 has a ceiling near 81,500 and a floor near 74,400 (chart reads). Price has made lower highs since early October and failed at about 81,000 on 4 Nov. Thursday’s drop took it to the lowest level since 16 September, around 75,200–75,460 depending on the venue.
- Averages
- Price sits below all three averages: 1,516 points (2.0%) under the rising slow one at 77,060, 4,091 under 79,635 and 6,428 under 81,972. The 77,060 line held until Thursday and is now the first ceiling, and the 50-week average near 75,733 was briefly lost. The 200-day average near 73,163 is the next real floor.
- Momentum
- RSI 37.69 is below its 40.42 average and well under 50, but still above 30, so the move is bearish rather than washed out. A turn back above 40.42 would be the first sign that selling is easing; a drop under 30 would mark an oversold flush where bounces are sharp but unreliable.
Bull vs Bear Signal Board for Bitcoin
| Signal | Reading | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| Trend | Descending channel from the mid-September high near 87,000; price sits on the floor near 74,400 after failing at about 81,000 on 4 Nov | Bearish |
| Moving averages | Below 77,060, 79,635 and 81,972; briefly lost the 50-week average near 75,733 on Thursday | Bearish |
| Momentum | RSI 37.69, below its 40.42 average and under 40, but not yet oversold | Bearish |
| Daily candle | Opened 75,983, high 76,295, low 75,453, now 75,544; a small body near the lows after Thursday’s 5%+ drop, so selling is slowing | Neutral |
| Leverage | More than $1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, about $954 million of it longs; fuel for a cascade is lower, but a squeeze is possible | Neutral |
| ETF flows | Spot funds lost $398.6M on 2 Nov and $115.6M on 3 Nov; Bloomberg counts about $1 billion net out since the Binance hack | Bearish |
| Equities and AI | Nasdaq-100 fell 6.4% and the S&P 500 4.4%; KOSPI halted after an 8% fall and the Nikkei entered a bear market; Nasdaq-100 futures up about 0.3% | Bearish |
| Fed | December hike odds fell to about 66–68% from 82%; 10-year yield near 4.83% | Bullish |
| Labour data | Payrolls today (forecast 65K, unemployment 4.2%); jobless claims were firm at 189K; a hot print lifts hike odds, a soft one eases them | Neutral |
| Exchange and supply | Binance’s $6.3B hack still in focus; Trump Media moved 4,259 BTC to Crypto.com; most short-term-holder coins are at a loss (Glassnode) | Bearish |
Net score: 1 bullish, 3 neutral, 6 bearish
Next 24 Hours on the GMT Clock
Fri 6 Nov
Deribit options expiry: 33,135 BTC (about $2.65 billion) Medium
Figures published before Thursday’s drop showed a put-call ratio of 0.33 and max pain near 79,000; with spot far below that, most calls now expire worthless and the 75,000 put strike is the one in play
Fri 6 Nov
New York Fed President Williams speaks Medium
December hike odds have already dropped to about 66–68% from 82%; a firm stance on inflation would hit risk assets, while a cautious tone would help a bounce
Fri 6 Nov
US October nonfarm payrolls (forecast 65K vs 29K; unemployment 4.2%), one hour before the Wall Street open High
Wages are expected to ease to 2.9% a year; a strong headline with firm pay would lift hike odds and push Bitcoin toward 75,000, while a miss with rising unemployment would ease yields and could squeeze shorts toward 77,060. The 14:30 GMT open also tests the tech rebound
Fri 6 Nov
Fed Governor Bowman speaks Medium
Her remarks come after payrolls and can extend or fade the data move into the US close
Sat 7 Nov
Asia open and weekend trading: chip stocks, Binance and Trump Media headlines Medium
Spot ETFs are closed at the weekend, so flows resume Monday; thinner liquidity can exaggerate moves around 75,000 and 77,060
Unscheduled ETF-flow, Binance, Trump Media and Washington headlines can land at any hour, and Bitcoin trades around the clock. October CPI (10 November) falls outside this window. Release times are the standard ones; confirm on your calendar.
If-Then Playbook for Bitcoin
If price bounces to 76,800–77,100 and is rejected at the 77,060 average
Then go short; stop above 77,700; targets 75,200, 73,163, 70,000
If price slides to 75,000–75,200 on the first test
Then wait; Thursday’s 75,208 low, the 75,000 put strike and the channel floor sit here, so do not chase shorts into support
If the daily candle closes below 75,000 with RSI below 37
Then hold shorts for 73,163, the 200-day average, then 70,000
If a 4-hour candle closes above 77,500 with RSI back over 40.42
Then drop the short idea; the bounce opens 79,635, then 81,000 and the 81,972 average
Catalyst Wire: Fundamental News for Bitcoin
Tech rout drags Bitcoin below $76,000 to a seven-week low
Bloomberg reports that Bitcoin fell as much as 5.8%, its lowest since mid-September, as the Nasdaq-100 sank 6.4% and the S&P 500 4.4%, wiping out $2.3 trillion in Nasdaq-100 value. Reuters says chip and data-centre shares led the fall on weak Qualcomm sales and fears that a Democratic Congress will tighten oversight of AI, and all S&P 500 sectors traded lower. K33’s head of research described the move in Bitcoin as a highly correlated one with the Nasdaq.
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, Quartz, 5 Nov 2026
Asia crashes: KOSPI halted, Nikkei enters a bear market
Reuters says Asia’s tech-heavy markets crumbled on Friday, with South Korea’s KOSPI falling more than 8% to trigger a 20-minute trading halt and Japan’s Nikkei down about 6%, while Taiwan lost more than 8%. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell around 10% and 12%, and SoftBank’s default insurance cost hit a four-year high. CNBC TV18 reports Nasdaq-100 futures edged up 0.3%, an early sign that markets may be stabilising.
Source: Reuters, CNBC TV18 via TradingView, 6 Nov 2026
More than $1 billion of crypto leverage is wiped out
CoinGlass data cited by crypto outlets show liquidations above $1 billion in 24 hours, with about $954 million in longs and roughly $281 million in Bitcoin positions; about $140 billion left total crypto market value in four hours. The flush removes crowded long leverage, which lowers the fuel for another cascade, but it also shows how fast positions unwind when equities fall. Coinbase and mining stocks fell alongside.
Source: CoinGlass via Crypto.news, Crypto Economy, CryptoAdventure, 5–6 Nov 2026
Spot ETF outflows and loss-making holders weigh on demand
Farside data show US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $398.6 million on 2 Nov and $115.6 million on 3 Nov, after $515 million of outflows in October. Bloomberg counts about $1 billion of net withdrawals between the Binance hack and Wednesday. Glassnode analysts say most coins held by short-term holders are now underwater, which raises the odds of selling into rallies near 77,000–80,000.
Source: Bloomberg, Farside Investors via Cointelegraph, Interfax, 2–5 Nov 2026
Binance hack aftermath and a Trump Media transfer add supply worries
Binance has said it replenished about 98% of the assets lost in its $6.3 billion hack and began reopening withdrawals on 1 Nov, but a full post-incident report is still pending. Separately, Arkham data show wallets linked to Trump Media moved 4,259 BTC to Crypto.com on 5 Nov, weeks before noteholders can demand repayment of about $1 billion on 30 Nov; nothing confirms a sale, and the coins are about 0.02% of supply.
Source: Binance update via Sahara Reporters, The Block, Arkham via IBTimes and 24/7 Wall St, 1–5 Nov 2026
Fed hike odds ease before payrolls
FXStreet reports December Fed hike odds fell to 66% from 82% as the 10-year yield dropped six basis points to 4.83%, and TradingKey puts them near 68%. Initial jobless claims dipped to 189K, below the 196K forecast. Investing.com’s Reuters preview expects wage growth to slow below 3.0% a year for the first time in nearly 5.5 years, which would argue for a calmer Fed, while CNBC’s consensus for payrolls is about 59K and FactSet’s is 65K.
Source: Reuters via Investing.com, FXStreet, TradingKey, CNBC, 5–6 Nov 2026
Conclusion
Desk verdict Sell the bounce 76,800–77,100; stop above 77,700
We stay bearish below 77,060, because price sits on the channel floor under all three averages, RSI is 37.69 under its average, spot ETFs are bleeding and equities have just had the worst Nasdaq-100 session since March 2020. A relief bounce is possible, since futures are steadier, leverage has been flushed and hike odds have eased, so we prefer to sell a rally into 76,800–77,100 rather than chase a break. From the middle of the zone that risks about 800 points for 1,700 at the first target of 75,200 (2.1 to 1) and 3,737 at 73,163 (4.7 to 1). A four-hour close above 77,500 with RSI over 40.42 cancels the idea and opens 79,635. A daily close below 75,000 would confirm the break and open 73,163, then 70,000. The main risks are a soft payrolls print that squeezes shorts, a tech rebound at the Wall Street open, a Binance or Trump Media headline, and thin weekend liquidity.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bitcoin outlook for the next 24 hours?
Bearish with a range of 75,000–77,060. Price trades at 75,544 under all three averages and at the floor of a descending channel, so rallies meet sellers at 77,060 and a daily close below 75,000 would open 73,163. A four-hour close above 77,500 would turn the bias neutral.
What is the BTC/USD trade setup today?
A sell-the-bounce short in the 76,800–77,100 band, with a stop above 77,700 and targets at 75,200, 73,163 and 70,000. From the middle of the zone that risks about 800 points for 3,737 at the third target, a ratio of about 4.7 to 1.
Why is Bitcoin falling today?
Bitcoin fell as much as 5.8% on Thursday as a tech rout (Nasdaq-100 down 6.4%) spread into crypto, triggering more than $1 billion of liquidations. Spot ETF outflows, the Binance hack, a Trump Media transfer of 4,259 BTC and a crash in Asian chip stocks added to the pressure, while December Fed hike odds have eased to about 66%.
What could move Bitcoin this week?
US payrolls today at 13:30 GMT, speeches from the Fed’s Williams and Bowman, spot ETF flows on Monday, October CPI on 10 November, the Trump Media note deadline on 30 November, Binance’s post-incident report, and the next move in AI and chip stocks.
