Week Ahead: US Retail Sales, FOMC Minutes and Yen Intervention Risk Test a Dollar at Yearly Highs as EUR/USD Sits on 1.1000 | Technical Analysis – Forex Report | 14 Nov 2026
Forex Week Ahead | 16–20 November 2026
Week Ahead: US Retail Sales, FOMC Minutes and Yen Intervention Risk Test a Dollar at Yearly Highs as EUR/USD Sits on 1.1000
- Weekly bias
- Dollar-led, event-heavy
- DXY above 103; Fed December hike odds near 90%; yen and franc weakest
- Expected volatility
- High
- Canada CPI, US retail sales, UK CPI, FOMC minutes and Australian jobs between Monday 13:30 GMT and Thursday 00:30 GMT
- Key event
- US retail sales
- Tuesday 17 Nov, 13:30 GMT; FOMC minutes Wednesday 19:00 GMT
- Key pivot level
- 160.00
- USD/JPY intervention line; EUR/USD 1.1000 and USD/CAD 1.4290 are the other lines to watch
Market Overview
The dollar enters the week at its strongest since April 2025. Hot October CPI (+0.4% m/m, core +0.3%) and a strong jobs report pushed December Fed hike odds to about 90% and lifted the dollar index above 103, even though the Democrats’ midterm sweep had briefly dropped it to 101.35 on 4 November. Friday’s softer PPI (+0.3% m/m against 0.4% forecast) gave only brief relief. Ten-year Treasury yields hover near 5.1%, and Fed speakers (Goolsbee called the inflation data “bordering on disturbing”) have kept the hawkish tone.
Last week by pair. EUR/USD fell 1.03% to 1.1022, GBP/USD lost 0.99% to 1.3211, and AUD/USD dropped 1.37% to a 10-month low at 0.6773. USD/CAD gained 0.99% to 1.4270 as oil slid on US–Iran deal hopes, and USD/CHF jumped 2.33% to 0.8391, the weakest major against the dollar. USD/JPY rose 0.79% to 159.71 after touching 160.19, drawing intervention warnings from Finance Minister Katayama and Prime Minister Takaichi.
What to watch, in GMT. Canadian CPI lands Monday at 13:30, US retail sales Tuesday at 13:30, UK CPI Wednesday at 07:00 and the FOMC minutes at 19:00, then Australian jobs Thursday at 00:30 and Japan CPI at 23:30. Japan’s Q3 GDP opens the week on Sunday at 23:50 GMT. Friday brings UK retail sales, and Moody’s is due to review the UK rating after the close.
We rank the strongest setups where macro direction and chart structure agree, and the weakest where a pair sits on a trend line ahead of a binary event.
Key highlights
- Fed: The Fed held at 3.75–4.00% with two hike dissents. A 25 bp December hike is near 90% priced and 50 bp about 10%, so retail sales and the minutes matter.
- Yen: Japan has spent about ¥27 trillion defending 160 this year; the BoJ is about 84% priced to hike on 18 December.
- Euro and sterling: EUR/USD sits on its channel floor while GBP/USD tests a 2025 trendline; UK CPI is forecast near 3.73%.
- Commodity currencies: The RBA hiked to 4.85% but did not signal December; the BoC is about 60% priced for December.
- Franc: The SNB holds at 0%, making the franc a carry-trade funding currency.
- Oil: Crude has fallen on hopes of a US–Iran deal, weighing on the Canadian dollar.
Market Snapshot: Close, 13 November 2026
EUR/USD Euro / US Dollar
1.1022
-0.0114-1.03% week
Range 1.1020–1.1251
1.09351.1392
Sell near 1.1090GBP/USD British Pound / US Dollar
1.3211
-0.0132-0.99% week
Range 1.3205–1.3459
1.30001.3413
Sell near 1.3275USD/JPY US Dollar / Japanese Yen
159.71
+1.24+0.79% week
Range 157.67–160.19
157.67164.00
Sell near 160.00AUD/USD Australian Dollar / US Dollar
0.6773
-0.0094-1.37% week
Range 0.6770–0.6931
0.66000.7025
Buy near 0.6710USD/CAD US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
1.4270
+0.0140+0.99% week
Range 1.4078–1.4274
1.39481.4550
Buy near 1.4290USD/CHF US Dollar / Swiss Franc
0.8391
+0.0191+2.33% week
Range 0.8174–0.8397
0.81740.8510
Buy near 0.8300- US Dollar Index (DXY)
- Above 103
- Highest since April 2025
- Fed December hike odds
- ~90%
- 25 bp; about 10% for 50 bp
- US 10-year yield
- ~5.1%
- 2-year near 4.85%
- BoJ December hike odds
- ~84%
- Meeting 18 December
Trade Setups for the Week
| Pair | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | Short | 1.1090 | 1.1165 | 1.1000 | 1.0935 | 1.2 / 2.1 | Low |
| GBP/USD | Short | 1.3275 | 1.3365 | 1.3150 | 1.3000 | 1.4 / 3.1 | Medium |
| USD/JPY | Short | 160.00 | 161.20 | 158.50 | 157.67 | 1.3 / 1.9 | Low |
| AUD/USD | Long | 0.6710 | 0.6650 | 0.6820 | 0.6990 | 1.8 / 4.7 | Low |
| USD/CAD | Long | 1.4290 | 1.4190 | 1.4400 | 1.4550 | 1.1 / 2.6 | Medium |
| USD/CHF | Long | 0.8300 | 0.8225 | 0.8450 | 0.8510 | 2.0 / 2.8 | Medium |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to target 1 and target 2, divided by the distance from entry to the stop. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Key Market Drivers
The Fed’s hike path is the common driver
The Fed held at 3.75–4.00% on 28 October with two dissents for a hike, and October CPI (+0.4% m/m, core +0.3%) was hotter than forecast. Markets price a 25 bp hike on 9 December near 90% with about 10% for 50 bp; Bank of America now expects hikes in December, January and March. Treasury Secretary Bessent argues against over-hiking into an easing energy shock.
Key events: Tuesday 17 November, retail sales at 13:30 GMT; Wednesday 18 November, FOMC minutes at 19:00 GMT; Monday 16 November, Williams at 14:05 GMT.
Yen: intervention against a priced BoJ hike
USD/JPY touched 160.19 on Friday and Tokyo warned against one-sided moves. The BoJ is priced at about 84% to hike on 18 December, but a matching Fed move leaves the rate gap unchanged, so the pair keeps testing 160.
Key events: Sunday 15 November, Japan GDP at 23:50 GMT; Thursday 19 November, Japan CPI at 23:30 GMT.
Commodity currencies: oil, China and central banks
Oil has fallen on US–Iran deal hopes, weighing on the loonie, while the RBA’s November hike did not signal December. Canadian CPI could revive BoC hike bets, and weak China data would hit the Aussie.
Key events: Monday 16 November, China data at 02:00 GMT and Canada CPI at 13:30 GMT; Thursday 19 November, Australian jobs at 00:30 GMT.
Europe and Switzerland: UK inflation, ECB pause and SNB at 0%
UK CPI, expected near 3.73%, tests the BoE’s December-versus-February debate, and ECB sources see one December hike then a pause. The SNB’s 0% rate keeps the franc a funding currency.
Key events: Tuesday 17 November, UK jobs at 07:00 GMT and ZEW at 10:00 GMT; Wednesday 18 November, UK CPI at 07:00 GMT; Friday 20 November, UK retail sales at 07:00 GMT.
USD/JPY 160.00 and EUR/USD 1.1000 mark the two lines most exposed to the retail sales and minutes double. A weekly close beyond either would change the picture for the dollar.
US Data Scenario Analysis
Consensus is for October retail sales of +0.2% (control group +0.4%) on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT, with the FOMC minutes following on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. The minutes pre-date the hot CPI report, so live Fed speakers and the retail print carry more weight.
Hawkish: strong retail sales and a hawkish minutes tone lift yields
Higher yields and a larger December hike widen the dollar’s rate edge.
- EUR/USD1.1000, then 1.0935
- GBP/USD1.3150, then 1.3000
- USD/JPY160.19, then 162.00 (intervention risk)
- AUD/USD0.6703, then 0.6600
- USD/CAD1.4290, then 1.4400
- USD/CHF0.8397, then 0.8510
Softer: weak retail sales reopen the 25 bp versus 50 bp debate
Lower yield expectations allow the oversold pairs to bounce and pull USD/JPY back from 160.
- EUR/USD1.1090, then 1.1175
- GBP/USD1.3275, then 1.3413
- USD/JPY158.21, then 157.67
- AUD/USD0.6820, then 0.6988
- USD/CAD1.4160, then 1.4042
- USD/CHF0.8300, then 0.8174
EUR/USD | Euro / US Dollar
EUR/USD Outlook: Euro Falls to the Falling-Channel Floor at 1.1000 as the Fed Out-Hikes the ECB
1.1022 -0.0114 (-1.03%) week Range 1.1020–1.1251
Outlook: Bias is lower while 1.1175 caps rallies. EUR/USD fell 1.03% on the week, its lowest weekly close since May 2025, as hot October CPI lifted December Fed hike odds to about 90% while ECB sources point to one December hike and then a pause. Price sits on the floor of a falling channel with RSI at 29, so sell rallies toward 1.1090 rather than chase a stretched move.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.0935
- Support 1
- 1.1000
- Resistance 1
- 1.1175
- Resistance 2
- 1.1392
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a falling channel since the January high near 1.2100; price is at its lower boundary, so a weekly close below 1.1000 would extend the break.
- Averages: 1.1392 and 1.1394 sit far above price; 1.1555 is higher still.
- Candle: bearish, opened 1.1135, ranged 1.1020–1.1251 and closed 1.03% lower, near the week’s low.
- Momentum: RSI 29.05 sits under its 41.82 signal line and in oversold territory, so a relief bounce is possible before the next leg.
Key technical levels
1.1175 is Wednesday’s high and the first cap; a weekly close above the 1.1251 week high would hint at a channel reversal. 1.1000 is the round-number floor; beneath it the next support sits at 1.0935–1.0950.
Fundamental drivers
Fed hike path
Money markets price a 25 bp Fed hike on 9 December at about 90%, with roughly 10% for 50 bp. Waller said a half-point hike might be warranted if core CPI came in at 0.3% or higher, and October’s print did. Softer PPI offered only brief relief. Retail sales on Tuesday and the FOMC minutes on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT are the next tests.
ECB and euro area data
Reports say ECB policymakers see a December hike followed by a pause, and staff estimates show higher bond yields cutting growth and inflation in 2027–28. ZEW on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT and final euro area CPI on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT are second-tier; the Fed drives the pair.
EUR/USD trade setup
ShortLow conviction- Entry
- 1.1090
- Stop loss
- 1.1165
- Target 1
- 1.1000
- Target 2
- 1.0935
Risk 75 pips. Reward:risk 1.2 to target 1, 2.1 to target 2.
Rationale: The channel, the sub-average position and a hawkish Fed favour selling bounces; the 1.1090–1.1165 band defines the risk.
Invalidation: A daily close above 1.1165. Oversold RSI, soft US retail sales or a US–Iran deal that cuts oil and yields are the main risks.
GBP/USD | British Pound / US Dollar
GBP/USD Outlook: Sterling Tests the Rising Trendline at 1.3200 Below the 1.3275 Average
1.3211 -0.0132 (-0.99%) week Range 1.3205–1.3459
Outlook: Bias is lower while 1.3275 caps rallies. GBP/USD fell 0.99% on the week after being rejected at 1.3459 and closing on the rising trendline from the January 2025 low. UK inflation on Wednesday, due to run near the Bank of England’s 3.73% forecast, is the home-grown catalyst, but dollar strength and a hawkish Fed dominate. Sell rallies into 1.3275; a weekly close below 1.3150 breaks the triangle.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3000
- Support 1
- 1.3150
- Resistance 1
- 1.3275
- Resistance 2
- 1.3413
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a triangle between a falling line from the 1.3680 high and a rising line from the 2025 low; price is on the rising line, so a breakout is close.
- Averages: 1.3275 sits just above price; 1.3397 and 1.3413 sit higher.
- Candle: bearish, opened 1.3341, ranged 1.3205–1.3459 and closed 0.99% lower.
- Momentum: RSI 41.74 sits under its 48.85 signal line, so momentum is weak but not oversold.
Key technical levels
1.3275 is the cap; a weekly close above 1.3413 would negate the bearish case. 1.3205 is the week’s low and the trendline; a close beneath 1.3150 exposes 1.3000.
Fundamental drivers
UK data and the BoE
The BoE hiked in November and its forecast puts October CPI at 3.73% (September 3.5%), core 2.9% and services 3.9%. Unemployment on Tuesday at 07:00 GMT, CPI on Wednesday at 07:00 GMT and retail sales on Friday at 07:00 GMT decide whether December or February is the next hike.
US dollar and event risk
The dollar is near its yearly high on Fed hike pricing. On Friday evening Moody’s reviews the UK’s credit rating and a UK–EU summit takes place, both capable of gapping sterling at the weekly open.
GBP/USD trade setup
ShortMedium conviction- Entry
- 1.3275
- Stop loss
- 1.3365
- Target 1
- 1.3150
- Target 2
- 1.3000
Risk 90 pips. Reward:risk 1.4 to target 1, 3.1 to target 2.
Rationale: A rising-line test with price under the 1.3275 average, weak RSI and a strong dollar favours selling rallies; 1.3275–1.3365 defines the risk.
Invalidation: A daily close above 1.3365. A hot UK CPI that revives December BoE hike pricing, or a soft US retail print, are the main risks.
USD/JPY | US Dollar / Japanese Yen
USD/JPY Outlook: Yen Presses 160.00 Again as Tokyo Warns and the BoJ December Hike Is Priced
159.71 +1.24 (+0.79%) week Range 157.67–160.19
Outlook: Bias is two-sided and capped near 160.00. USD/JPY gained 0.79% on the week to 159.71, touching 160.19 on Friday, its highest since early September, before Finance Minister Katayama and Prime Minister Takaichi warned against one-sided moves. Japan intervened above 160 in April and July, so rallies into 160.00–160.50 carry sharp reversal risk. Sell the test with a tight stop above 161.20.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 157.67
- Support 1
- 158.21
- Resistance 1
- 160.19
- Resistance 2
- 164.00
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a triangle between a falling line from the July high near 164.00 and a rising line from the 2025 low; price is at the upper half, near 160 resistance.
- Averages: 158.66 and 158.21 now sit under price; 153.78 sits well below.
- Candle: bullish, opened 158.34, ranged 157.67–160.19 and closed 0.79% higher.
- Momentum: RSI 54.72 sits above its 48.50 signal line, so momentum has turned up from neutral.
Key technical levels
160.19 is the week’s high; 160.00 is the market’s intervention line, and 164.00 is the July peak. 158.21 is the average and first support; 157.67 is the week’s low, and a close below it targets 153.78.
Fundamental drivers
Intervention risk
Japan has spent about ¥27 trillion this year defending 160, and Katayama said she will coordinate with the US Treasury. Intervention knocks the pair down by several yen, but earlier rounds only bought weeks. A rapid jump through 160 is more likely to trigger action than a slow drift.
BoJ and Fed
Money markets price about 84% for a BoJ hike on 18 December, matching a likely Fed hike on 9 December, so the rate gap stays wide. Japan’s Q3 GDP (Sunday 23:50 GMT, about 0.8% annualised expected) and national CPI (Thursday 23:30 GMT) can shift BoJ pricing.
USD/JPY trade setup
ShortLow conviction- Entry
- 160.00
- Stop loss
- 161.20
- Target 1
- 158.50
- Target 2
- 157.67
Risk 120 pips. Reward:risk 1.3 to target 1, 1.9 to target 2.
Rationale: Intervention warnings from Tokyo and Washington, a priced BoJ hike and a hot 160 line favour fading the test; the 160.00–161.20 band defines the risk.
Invalidation: A daily close above 161.20. A hawkish Fed minutes or strong retail sales that push the 10-year yield above 5.1% could carry the pair to 162.20.
AUD/USD | Australian Dollar / US Dollar
AUD/USD Outlook: Aussie Hits a 10-Month Low on the Channel Floor Above the 0.6703 Average
0.6773 -0.0094 (-1.37%) week Range 0.6770–0.6931
Outlook: Bias is lower, but support is close. AUD/USD fell 1.37% on the week to 0.6773, a 10-month low, and now sits on the floor of its falling channel with RSI at 35. The dollar rally and weaker commodities are the drivers, while the RBA’s 6–3 hike to 4.85% did little because it stopped short of signalling December. A dip to the 0.6703 average offers the better entry; Thursday’s jobs report is the risk.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.6600
- Support 1
- 0.6703
- Resistance 1
- 0.6988
- Resistance 2
- 0.7025
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a falling channel from the January high near 0.7300; price is on its lower boundary, so a weekly close below 0.6770 would break it.
- Averages: 0.6988 and 0.7025 sit above price; 0.6703 sits just below and rising.
- Candle: bearish, opened 0.6871, ranged 0.6770–0.6931 and closed 1.37% lower.
- Momentum: RSI 35.51 sits under its 51.57 signal line and is nearing oversold.
Key technical levels
0.6770 is the week’s low and channel floor; 0.6703 is the long average and a close below it opens 0.6600. 0.6820 and 0.6988 are the rebound targets; a weekly close above 0.6988 would end the channel.
Fundamental drivers
RBA and Australian data
The RBA hiked to 4.85% on 3 November in a 6–3 vote, and Governor Bullock suggested it would “take stock”, which markets have read as a December pause. Minutes on Tuesday at 00:30 GMT, wages on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT and jobs on Thursday at 00:30 GMT (about +27.5k, 4.7%) decide that view.
China and the dollar
China’s activity data on Monday at 02:00 GMT is forecast to show retail sales of 0.8% and industrial output of 5.3%, and the PBoC LPR on Friday is expected unchanged. A weak print would pressure the Aussie further, while a US–Iran deal that eases oil could lift risk appetite.
AUD/USD trade setup
LongLow conviction- Entry
- 0.6710
- Stop loss
- 0.6650
- Target 1
- 0.6820
- Target 2
- 0.6990
Risk 60 pips. Reward:risk 1.8 to target 1, 4.7 to target 2.
Rationale: A long average and a channel floor within 70 points offer defined risk for a bounce; the stop sits below the 0.6703 average.
Invalidation: A daily close below 0.6650. A strong US retail print or hawkish Fed minutes, and a soft Australian jobs report, are the main risks.
USD/CAD | US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
USD/CAD Outlook: Loonie Slips to the Triangle Top at 1.4270 as Oil Falls and Fed Hike Bets Build
1.4270 +0.0140 (+0.99%) week Range 1.4078–1.4274
Outlook: Bias is higher on a close above 1.4290. USD/CAD gained 0.99% on the week to 1.4270 and finished at the falling line of a symmetrical triangle drawn from the January 2025 high. Fed hike pricing and lower oil on US–Iran deal hopes favour the dollar, while Monday’s Canadian CPI, with about a 60% BoC December hike priced, is the main counterweight. Buy a confirmed break rather than the touch.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3948
- Support 1
- 1.4042
- Resistance 1
- 1.4290
- Resistance 2
- 1.4550
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a symmetrical triangle between a falling line from 1.4800 and a rising line from the 2026 low; price touches the upper line.
- Averages: 1.4042, 1.3948 and 1.3887 all sit below price and rising.
- Candle: bullish, opened 1.4124, ranged 1.4078–1.4274 and closed 0.99% higher.
- Momentum: RSI 60.64 sits above its 53.57 signal line, so momentum is firm.
Key technical levels
1.4290 is the prior high and the trigger; a weekly close above it opens 1.4400 and 1.4550. 1.4042 is the first average and support; a close below 1.3948 would favour the lower triangle line.
Fundamental drivers
Canadian CPI and the BoC
Canadian CPI on Monday at 13:30 GMT is forecast at 3.2% y/y (3.1% before) and 0.3% m/m, with core measures near 2.0%. The BoC hiked to 2.50% in October and its minutes said further hikes may be needed, but a weak labour market clouds December. Retail sales follow on Friday at 13:30 GMT.
Oil and the Fed
Oil has fallen on hopes of a US–Iran deal, removing a prop for the loonie, while hot US CPI and a strong October jobs report keep December Fed hike odds near 90%. US retail sales on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT is the dollar’s next test.
USD/CAD trade setup
LongMedium conviction- Entry
- 1.4290
- Stop loss
- 1.4190
- Target 1
- 1.4400
- Target 2
- 1.4550
Risk 100 pips. Reward:risk 1.1 to target 1, 2.6 to target 2.
Rationale: A close above the triangle top, rising averages and Fed-BoC divergence favour a breakout; the stop sits under the 1.4190 shelf.
Invalidation: A daily close below 1.4190. Hot Canadian CPI that firms BoC hike bets, an oil rebound or soft US retail sales are the main risks.
USD/CHF | US Dollar / Swiss Franc
USD/CHF Outlook: Franc Is the Weakest Major This Week as the Pair Nears the Channel Top at 0.8510
0.8391 +0.0191 (+2.33%) week Range 0.8174–0.8397
Outlook: Bias is higher while 0.8300 holds. USD/CHF jumped 2.33% on the week to 0.8391, the weakest Swiss franc among the majors, as the Fed–SNB rate gap widened and the franc was used as a carry-trade funding currency. The pair broke above its averages near 0.8174 and now approaches the top of its rising channel with RSI at 67. Buy pullbacks to 0.8300 rather than chase.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.8174
- Support 1
- 0.8300
- Resistance 1
- 0.8397
- Resistance 2
- 0.8510
Weekly chart structure
- Structure: a rising channel since the January low near 0.7590; price is nearing the upper boundary around 0.8510.
- Averages: 0.8174, 0.8170 and 0.7995 all sit below price; the pair has closed above the first two.
- Candle: strongly bullish, opened 0.8194, ranged 0.8174–0.8397 and closed 2.33% higher.
- Momentum: RSI 66.75 sits above its 60.22 signal line and is approaching overbought.
Key technical levels
0.8397 is the week’s high and 0.8510 the channel top. 0.8300 is the pullback zone and prior resistance; a close below 0.8174, the average, would end the move.
Fundamental drivers
Fed–SNB divergence
The SNB holds at 0% while the Fed is priced to hike on 9 December, and the SNB itself has linked franc weakness to carry flows. Swiss inflation rose to 1.5% in October, yet SNB Chairman Schlegel sees no significant second-round effects. The SNB decides on 10 December.
Week ahead
Swiss Q3 GDP flashes on Monday at about 06:00 GMT, but the pair trades US yields: retail sales on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT and FOMC minutes on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. A risk-off turn or US–Iran headlines could revive franc demand.
USD/CHF trade setup
LongMedium conviction- Entry
- 0.8300
- Stop loss
- 0.8225
- Target 1
- 0.8450
- Target 2
- 0.8510
Risk 75 pips. Reward:risk 2.0 to target 1, 2.8 to target 2.
Rationale: A fresh channel breakout, a widening rate gap and rising averages favour buying a pullback; the stop sits under the 0.8225 breakout shelf.
Invalidation: A daily close below 0.8225. A softer Fed path, risk-off flows or SNB intervention talk are the main risks.
Economic Calendar: 16–20 November 2026
| Date | Event | Market | Impact | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:50 GMT | Japan GDP, preliminary Q3, about 0.8% annualised expected | USD/JPY | Med | Growth read before the BoJ’s 18 December meeting |
| 02:00 GMT | China activity data (October): industrial output 5.3%, retail sales 0.8% forecast | AUD/USD | Med | Weak data raises stimulus bets; Aussie sensitive |
| About 06:00 GMT | Swiss GDP flash (Q3) | USD/CHF | Low | Time approximate; Fed–SNB gap matters more |
| 13:30 GMT | Canada CPI (October), headline forecast 3.2% y/y, 0.3% m/m | USD/CAD | High | About 60% BoC December hike priced; 1.4290 trigger |
| 13:30 GMT | US Empire State manufacturing (November), forecast 17.6 | USD pairs | Low | Previous 25.5 |
| 14:05 GMT | Fed’s Williams gives opening remarks | USD pairs | Med | Follows hot October CPI; Fed Chair Warsh also speaks later in the day (time approximate) |
| 00:30 GMT | RBA minutes (November meeting) | AUD/USD | Med | 6–3 hike vote; arguments of the three dissenters |
| 07:00 GMT | UK unemployment rate (September) and wages | GBP/USD | Med | Prior 4.7%; wage components checked for second-round effects |
| 10:00 GMT | Euro area and German ZEW survey (November) | EUR/USD | Low | Sentiment under higher yields and energy costs |
| 13:30 GMT | US retail sales (October), forecast +0.2%, control group +0.4% | All USD pairs | High | Previous +0.8%; a beat keeps December hike odds near 90% |
| 14:15 GMT | US industrial production (October) | USD pairs | Low | Secondary growth read |
| 00:30 GMT | Australia wage price index (Q3) | AUD/USD | Med | Feeds RBA December pause debate |
| 07:00 GMT | UK CPI (October), BoE forecast 3.73% y/y; core 2.9%, services 3.9% | GBP/USD | High | Decides December versus February BoE timing; 1.3275 cap |
| 10:00 GMT | Euro area final CPI (October) | EUR/USD | Low | Confirms flash; ECB December hike view |
| 19:00 GMT | FOMC minutes (28 October meeting) | All USD pairs | High | Cook and Hammack dissented for a hike; minutes pre-date hot CPI |
| 00:30 GMT | Australia jobs (October), forecast +27.5k, unemployment 4.7% | AUD/USD | High | September fell 39.3k; first data since the RBA hike |
| 13:30 GMT | US Philadelphia Fed index (November) and weekly jobless claims | USD pairs | Low | Labour and activity signal |
| 23:30 GMT | Japan national CPI (October), core forecast 2.3% | USD/JPY | High | Supports BoJ December hike pricing; 160.00 intervention line |
| About 01:00 GMT | China loan prime rates, 1-year 3.00% and 5-year 3.50% expected unchanged | AUD/USD | Low | Time approximate; 18th straight hold expected |
| 07:00 GMT | UK retail sales (October), forecast 0.0% | GBP/USD | Med | Previous -0.4%; consumers cautious |
| About 13:25 GMT | Fed’s Waller speaks | USD pairs | Med | Said a 50 bp hike may be warranted if core CPI ran at 0.3% or more (time approximate) |
| 13:30 GMT | Canada retail sales (September), forecast +0.7% | USD/CAD | Med | Previous +1.2% |
| 15:00 GMT | University of Michigan sentiment, final November, forecast 52.1 | USD pairs | Low | Inflation expectations last at 4.3% |
| After the close (time TBC) | Moody’s review of the UK rating and UK–EU summit | GBP/USD | Med | Weekend gap risk for sterling |
All times are GMT. Times marked approximate or TBC may change. Forecasts are consensus figures from Newsquawk, ActionForex and MUFG.
Conclusion
The dollar’s strength rests on one idea: the Fed is closer to a December hike than any other major bank. US retail sales and the FOMC minutes test it, Tokyo defends 160, and UK, Canadian and Australian data decide how far the other pairs follow.
On conviction, USD/CAD, USD/CHF and GBP/USD rate medium, while EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD rate low because the first and last are oversold at channel floors and the yen carries intervention risk.
We treat every level as conditional, let the event windows pass before adding exposure and size positions so that a stop-out is affordable. Spreads can widen sharply around Canadian CPI, US retail sales, UK CPI and the FOMC minutes.
| Pair | Bias | Key level | Targets | Invalidation | Principal risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | Sell near 1.1090 | 1.1175 | 1.1000 / 1.0935 | Above 1.1165 | Oversold bounce, soft US retail sales |
| GBP/USD | Sell near 1.3275 | 1.3275 | 1.3150 / 1.3000 | Above 1.3365 | Hot UK CPI, Moody’s and UK–EU headlines |
| USD/JPY | Sell near 160.00 | 160.19 | 158.50 / 157.67 | Above 161.20 | Intervention, hawkish Fed minutes |
| AUD/USD | Buy near 0.6710 | 0.6703 | 0.6820 / 0.6990 | Below 0.6650 | Strong US data, weak Australian jobs |
| USD/CAD | Buy near 1.4290 | 1.4042 | 1.4400 / 1.4550 | Below 1.4190 | Hot Canadian CPI, oil rebound |
| USD/CHF | Buy near 0.8300 | 0.8300 | 0.8450 / 0.8510 | Below 0.8225 | Risk-off flows, softer Fed path |
Trade EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which events decide the dollar pairs this week?
US retail sales on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT and the FOMC minutes on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT matter most, with Canadian CPI on Monday, UK CPI on Wednesday, Australian jobs on Thursday and Japan CPI late Thursday. December Fed hike odds sit near 90%.
Why did the dollar rally last week?
Hot October CPI (core +0.3% m/m) and a strong jobs report lifted December Fed hike odds to about 90%, pushing the dollar index above 103, its highest since April 2025. Softer PPI on Friday gave only brief relief.
Will Japan intervene if USD/JPY breaks 160?
Tokyo has not named a trigger, but Katayama and Takaichi both warned on Friday and Japan has intervened near 160 twice this year. The speed of the move matters more than the level; a rapid jump is the likeliest trigger.
Why is the Swiss franc so weak?
The SNB holds rates at 0% while the Fed is priced to hike, so investors use the franc to fund carry trades. USD/CHF rose 2.33% on the week, the biggest move among the majors.
How can traders manage risk in an event-heavy week?
Reduce size before major releases, avoid new entries in the minutes around them and allow for wider spreads. Use defined stops, and be aware that intervention or weekend headlines can gap price through them.
