Gold Rebounds From a One-Year Low to $3,900, Silver Bounces 2.5%, WTI Slides Below $100 on Iran Talks and the 15:00 GMT ISM Decides What Breaks | Technical Analysis – Commodity Report | 02 Nov 2026
Commodities Today | Monday 2 November 2026 | London morning session
Gold Rebounds From a One-Year Low to $3,900, Silver Bounces 2.5%, WTI Slides Below $100 on Iran Talks and the 15:00 GMT ISM Decides What Breaks
Market Overview
Metals are bouncing from oversold levels, oil is falling on diplomacy, and the 15:00 GMT ISM is the first catalyst big enough to break the ranges. Gold (3,899.98, +0.64%) is recovering from Friday’s one-year low after lower oil eased inflation worries, while silver (50.35, +2.53%) has rebounded from the floor of its falling channel with RSI at 29.39. WTI crude (99.55, −3.29%) has slipped back from the top of a triangle as Iran and Qatar hold a third day of talks, Iran has floated a two-day plan to reopen Hormuz and OPEC+ held December output. Brent is near $110, down about 3%, and analysts warn that a harder US line after Tuesday’s midterms could send it toward $120. The dollar index is near 101.7, which helps the metals.
Natural gas (2.926, +0.97%) is retesting a cluster of averages between 2.958 and 3.002 after a one-week low under $2.90 on stronger output and storage builds. Copper (6.6002, +0.25%) is holding the middle of a shallow falling channel with no mine or China headline. Wheat (612.8, +0.05%) sits near the floor of its channel with RSI 24.54, the most oversold of the six, as bigger Russian exports pull Chicago toward a four-month low. The scheduled risk is concentrated: the US S&P PMI at 14:45 GMT (56.0), the ISM at 15:00 GMT (54.7 against 54.5, prices paid 77.5), the LBMA gold PM price at 15:00 GMT and USDA export inspections at 17:00 GMT. A firm ISM with sticky prices would revive Fed-hike bets and pressure gold, silver and copper together; oil follows Hormuz headlines more than the data.
Key highlights
- Gold: Price is 3,899.98 under all three averages (4,087.16 to 4,244.65) with RSI 32.08; 3,874 and 3,830 are the supports.
- Silver: Price is 50.35 after bouncing from the floor of a falling channel; RSI 29.39 is oversold and 49.11 is first support.
- Copper: Price is 6.6002 inside a shallow falling channel, above the 6.5541 slow average; 6.6593 and 6.6705 cap rallies.
- WTI crude: Price is 99.55, down 3.29% from the triangle top near 104; 97.34 and 94.42 are the supports.
- Natural gas: Price is 2.926 just under a cluster of averages at 2.958 to 3.002 after the channel break; 2.851 is first support.
- Wheat: Price is 612.8 with RSI 24.54, the most oversold of the six; the channel floor near 590 is the key level.
What’s Moving Commodities Today
Gold steadies near $3,900 after a one-year low as lower oil eases inflation worries
Spot gold rose about 0.6% to near $3,900 in Asian trade, recovering from Friday’s drop to a one-year low as lower oil prices eased inflation and rate-hike concerns. Friday’s slide of more than 3% was driven by liquidation selling as Fed-hike bets deepened, and Trading Economics has gold at about $3,906 this morning.
Source: Reuters via Goodreturns, Trading Economics, USAGOLD, 30 Oct–2 Nov 2026
Silver rebounds 2.5% above $50 after a near-6% Friday plunge
FXStreet data at 09:30 GMT has silver at $50.38, up 2.54% from Friday’s $49.13, and the gold/silver ratio at 77.41 against 78.87 on Friday. Silver fell nearly twice as fast as gold on Friday as hawkish Fed signals and equity liquidation hit the metal, and it is still down about 29% on the year.
Source: FXStreet, USAGOLD, 30 Oct–2 Nov 2026
Copper edges up as the dollar eases, with the ISM the first big test for industrial metals
The dollar index is near 101.7 and copper is firmer on the day, but there is no mine or China-specific headline this morning. Quotes differ by feed: Kitco shows $6.54 a pound around 08:54 GMT and Trading Economics about $6.51 to $6.53, against the $6.60 on the chart feed used here.
Source: Kitco, Trading Economics, Goodreturns, 2 Nov 2026
Oil drops more than 3% as Iran and Qatar hold a third day of talks
Reuters had Brent down 3.2% at $109.75 and WTI down 3.3% at $100.69 by 04:07 GMT, after OPEC+ kept December output unchanged on Sunday. Iran’s foreign minister said the talks are progressing, and Iran floated a plan to reopen Hormuz in two days. Brent ended October at a six-month high, and analysts warn it could test $120 if the US takes a harder line after Tuesday’s midterms.
Source: Reuters via Business Recorder and Pajhwok, FXStreet, FinanceFeeds, 2 Nov 2026
US natural gas dips toward a one-week low as output and storage builds outweigh LNG demand
Trading Economics reports US gas slipping under $2.90 per MMBtu, a one-week low, as recovering domestic production and stronger-than-expected storage additions outweighed support from rising LNG exports. December is now the front month, and Henry Hub spot fell to its lowest since November 2024 in late October.
Source: Trading Economics, P&GJ, 2 Nov 2026
Chicago wheat retreats toward a 4-month low on the Russian export outlook
Chicago wheat futures eased on Monday toward last week’s four-month low as expectations of bigger Russian exports outweighed strong demand for US grain. The market has just posted a ninth straight weekly loss, while corn and soybeans bounced on bargain buying after sharp declines.
Source: Reuters via Business Recorder, 2 Nov 2026
Key Drivers for the Rest of Today
Six things that set direction for the rest of the session in gold, silver, copper, crude oil, natural gas and wheat. All times are GMT.
- Iran–Qatar talks and Hormuz headlines
- Live
- Ongoing, all session
- Third day of talks; Iran has floated a two-day Hormuz reopening plan. A breakthrough extends the oil slide, while a collapse or a new tanker attack reverses it quickly
- US S&P Global manufacturing PMI (final)
- 14:45
- Mon 2 Nov, 14:45 GMT
- Forecast 56.0, matching the flash; it sets up the ISM release 15 minutes later
- US ISM manufacturing PMI, prices, employment
- 15:00
- Mon 2 Nov, 15:00 GMT
- Forecast 54.7 (prior 54.5); prices paid 77.5 (prior 77.9). A hot print pressures gold, silver and copper through yields and the dollar; a miss supports them
- LBMA gold PM price
- 15:00
- Mon 2 Nov, 15:00 GMT
- The afternoon London auction sets the benchmark and often coincides with the ISM, so spot gold can swing around 15:00 GMT
- USDA weekly export inspections
- 17:00
- Mon 2 Nov, 17:00 GMT
- Routine weekly Monday release; firm US wheat loadings would offset some of the Russian export pressure
- Daily close
- 22:00
- Mon 2 Nov, 22:00 GMT
- Daily candles close at 22:00 GMT, which is the reference for the cancel levels in the setups
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order gold, silver, copper, crude oil, natural gas and wheat, valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea (a daily close for wheat).
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAU/USD) | Short | 3,985.00 | 4,045.00 | 3,920.00 | 3,875.00 | 1.1 / 1.8 | Medium |
| Silver (XAG/USD) | Long | 49.20 | 47.90 | 50.55 | 52.00 | 1.0 / 2.2 | Low |
| Copper (COMEX) | Long | 6.5600 | 6.4600 | 6.6700 | 6.7600 | 1.1 / 2.0 | Low |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | Short | 102.60 | 104.80 | 99.50 | 97.30 | 1.4 / 2.4 | Low–Medium |
| Natural Gas (NYMEX) | Short | 2.985 | 3.080 | 2.850 | 2.700 | 1.4 / 3.0 | Medium |
| Wheat (cash contract) | Long | 600.0 | 584.0 | 620.0 | 637.0 | 1.2 / 2.3 | Low |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. A third target for each market is in its section below. Prices are feed prices from the daily charts at about 09:40 to 09:42 GMT on 2 November. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a bounce or a pullback to trigger, and the 15:00 GMT ISM release can gap prices through them. Silver, copper and wheat are counter-trend dip-buys and gold, WTI and natural gas are sell-the-bounce ideas, so a hot ISM print would hit the three longs together. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
The ISM at 15:00 GMT and the Iran–Qatar talks are the swing factors for the rest of today.
A strong ISM print and firm yields: the dollar rises and the markets test their lower supports
A reading above the 54.7 forecast, especially with prices paid near 77.5 or higher, would back Fed-hike bets and push gold, silver, copper and wheat toward support. Oil would also lean lower with the dollar, but a Hormuz setback would override that.
- Gold3,874.30, then 3,830.00
- Silver49.11, then 48.00
- Copper6.5541, then 6.4600
- WTI crude97.34, then 94.42
- Natural gas2.851, then 2.700
- Wheat610.7, then 590.0
A soft ISM print and a weaker dollar: the metals extend their bounce toward resistance
A reading under 54.7 or weaker prices paid would ease yields and let gold, silver and copper retest their resistance. A collapse of the Iran–Qatar talks would lift crude toward the top of its triangle regardless of the data.
- Gold3,919.30, then 3,985.00
- Silver50.55, then 52.00
- Copper6.6593, then 6.8300
- WTI crude102.75, then 104.50
- Natural gas2.958, then 3.002
- Wheat614.4, then 637.0
Gold (XAU/USD) | TVC feed
Gold Analysis: Price Bounces Off a One-Year Low but Stays Under All Three Averages Inside a Falling Channel
3,899.98 +24.79 (+0.64%) at about 09:42 GMT Previous close 3,875.19
Outlook: Bias is lower while 3,985 to 4,087 caps rallies. Gold is near 3,900 after Friday’s liquidation-driven drop to a one-year low, with lower oil easing inflation worries and a Fed-hike debate still weighing on the metal.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 3,830.00
- Support 1
- 3,874.30
- Resistance 1
- 3,919.30
- Resistance 2
- 4,087.16
- Price (3,899.98) is far under the 4,087.16 fast, 4,209.54 medium and 4,244.65 slow averages. Main catalyst: Fed-hike bets, equity-led liquidation, 15:00 GMT ISM.
- RSI 32.08 under its 38.75 average: weak and near oversold. A close above 4,087 breaks the channel top; a break under 3,874 targets 3,830.
Setup: Short at 3,985.00, stop 4,045.00, targets 3,920.00, 3,875.00 and 3,830.00. Reward:risk 1.1 / 1.8 / 2.6, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 4,045, or a soft ISM print that drags US yields and the dollar lower. Gold is near oversold, so take profit quickly on the first targets.
Silver (XAG/USD) | TVC feed
Silver Analysis: Price Bounces 2.5% From the Floor of a Falling Channel With RSI Under 30
50.35 +1.24 (+2.53%) at about 09:42 GMT Previous close 49.11
Outlook: Bias is a short-term bounce while 48.00 holds, inside a bigger downtrend. Silver is near 50.35 after Friday’s drop of nearly 6% below $50, and the gold/silver ratio has eased to about 77.4 from 78.9 on Friday.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 48.00
- Support 1
- 49.11
- Resistance 1
- 50.55
- Resistance 2
- 56.30
- Price (50.35) is far under the 56.29 fast and 61.38 and 61.44 medium and slow averages. Main catalyst: oversold bounce, gold/silver ratio easing, 15:00 GMT ISM.
- RSI 29.39 under its 33.65 average: oversold. A close above 52.00 extends the bounce; a close under 48.00 breaks the channel floor.
Setup: Long at 49.20, stop 47.90, targets 50.55, 52.00 and 54.00. Reward:risk 1.0 / 2.2 / 3.7, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close below 47.90, or a hot ISM print that pushes the dollar and yields higher. This is a counter-trend dip-buy, so keep size small.
Copper (COMEX) | Capital.com feed
Copper Analysis: Price Holds the Middle of a Shallow Falling Channel Above the Slow Average
6.6002 +0.0163 (+0.25%) at about 09:42 GMT Previous close 6.5840
Outlook: Bias is neutral to higher on dips while 6.5541 holds. Copper is near 6.60 with no mine or China headline this morning, so the 15:00 GMT ISM and the dollar are the main drivers.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 6.4600
- Support 1
- 6.5541
- Resistance 1
- 6.6593
- Resistance 2
- 6.8300
- Price (6.6002) is under the 6.6593 and 6.6705 averages and above the 6.5541 slow average. Main catalyst: dollar tone and the 15:00 GMT ISM.
- RSI 46.92 under its 47.90 average: neutral. A close above 6.6705 targets 6.83; a close under 6.5541 opens 6.46.
Setup: Long at 6.5600, stop 6.4600, targets 6.6700, 6.7600 and 6.8300. Reward:risk 1.1 / 2.0 / 2.7, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close below 6.46, or a hot ISM print with a sharply firmer dollar. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Crude Oil (WTI) | TVC feed
WTI Crude Oil Analysis: Price Slips Below $100 From the Top of a Triangle on Iran–Qatar Talks
99.55 −3.39 (−3.29%) at about 09:42 GMT Previous close 102.94
Outlook: Bias is lower while 102.75 to 104.50 caps rallies, but headline risk is two-way. WTI is near 99.55 as Iran–Qatar talks reach a third day and Iran floats a plan to reopen Hormuz in two days, after OPEC+ held December output.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 94.42
- Support 1
- 97.34
- Resistance 1
- 102.75
- Resistance 2
- 104.50
- Price (99.55) is above the 97.34 fast, 94.42 medium and 86.70 slow averages, after a rejection at the triangle top. Main catalyst: Iran–Qatar talks, Hormuz, post-midterm risk.
- RSI 55.03 under its 61.06 average: neutral and turning down. A close above 104.50 breaks the triangle top and targets 110; a break under 97.34 targets 94.42.
Setup: Short at 102.60, stop 104.80, targets 99.50, 97.30 and 94.40. Reward:risk 1.4 / 2.4 / 3.7, low–medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 104.80, or if the Iran–Qatar talks collapse or a new Hormuz tanker attack is reported. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Natural Gas (NYMEX) | NYMEX futures feed
Natural Gas Analysis: Price Retests the Underside of a Broken Channel Under a Cluster of Averages
2.926 +0.028 (+0.97%) at about 09:42 GMT Previous close 2.898
Outlook: Bias is lower while 2.958 to 3.002 caps rallies. Natural gas is near 2.926 after a dip to 2.851, with the three averages bunched just above price after last month’s channel breakdown.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 2.500
- Support 1
- 2.851
- Resistance 1
- 2.958
- Resistance 2
- 3.002
- Price (2.926) is under the clustered 2.958, 2.967 and 3.002 averages after the channel break. Main catalyst: output, storage and LNG feedgas.
- RSI 48.85 above its 45.44 average: neutral. A close above 3.002 cancels the short; a break under 2.851 targets 2.70.
Setup: Short at 2.985, stop 3.080, targets 2.850, 2.700 and 2.500. Reward:risk 1.4 / 3.0 / 5.1, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 3.080, or a colder weather revision that lifts demand sharply. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Wheat (cash contract) | Pepperstone feed
Wheat Analysis: Price Sits Near the Floor of a Falling Channel With RSI Deeply Oversold
612.8 +0.3 (+0.05%) at about 09:42 GMT Previous close 612.5
Outlook: Bias is lower while 650 caps rallies, but a bounce is likely from oversold levels. Wheat is near 612.8 cents after a ninth straight weekly decline and a retreat toward a four-month low on bigger Russian export expectations.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 590.0
- Support 1
- 610.7
- Resistance 1
- 614.4
- Resistance 2
- 652.6
- Price (612.8) is far under the 652.6 fast, 671.2 medium and 697.4 slow averages. Main catalyst: Russian export outlook against firm US export demand.
- RSI 24.54 under its 29.34 average: deeply oversold. A close above 652.6 breaks the channel top; a close under 590 breaks the floor.
Setup: Long at 600.0, stop 584.0, targets 620.0, 637.0 and 652.6. Reward:risk 1.2 / 2.3 / 3.3, low conviction. Cancel if a daily close below 584, or if Russian export news adds fresh selling pressure. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Conclusion
The trend is lower in gold, WTI and natural gas, so we prefer selling bounces near 3,985, 102.60 and 2.985, with gold the least stretched because RSI is close to oversold. Silver near 49.20, copper near 6.56 and wheat near 600.0 are dip-buys at or near channel floors, all at low conviction against the trend. The session risks are the US S&P PMI at 14:45 GMT, the ISM and LBMA gold PM price at 15:00 GMT and USDA export inspections at 17:00 GMT, with Iran–Qatar headlines able to move oil at any time. A 4-hour close over 4,045 in gold or under 47.90 in silver would change the picture.
Trade gold, silver, copper, crude oil, natural gas and wheat with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the commodities outlook for today?
Mixed and headline-driven. Metals are bouncing from oversold levels, oil is sliding on Iran–Qatar talks, and the 15:00 GMT ISM manufacturing PMI is the main scheduled test.
Which commodity trade ideas are live today?
Short gold, WTI crude and natural gas on rallies; long silver, copper and wheat on dips, each with a stop and three targets.
What time are the key events in GMT?
US S&P PMI at 14:45 GMT, ISM and the LBMA gold PM price at 15:00 GMT, USDA export inspections at 17:00 GMT and the daily close at 22:00 GMT. Iran–Qatar talk headlines can arrive at any time.
Why is oil falling today?
Iran and Qatar held a third day of talks, Iran floated a plan to reopen Hormuz in two days and OPEC+ held December output, which took Brent down about 3% in Asian trade.
Why is gold near $3,900?
Gold hit a one-year low on Friday on liquidation selling and Fed-hike bets, then bounced about 0.6% to 0.8% as lower oil eased inflation worries.
