Oil Jumps on Saudi Refinery Strike Claim as Gold and Silver Brace for the 18:00 GMT Fed Verdict | Technical Analysis – Commodity Report | 28 oct 2026
Market in Focus | Commodities | Wednesday 28 October 2026
Oil Jumps on Saudi Refinery Strike Claim as Gold and Silver Brace for the 18:00 GMT Fed Verdict
GoldXAUUSD · 09:39 GMT
4,054.05
−6.09 (−0.15%)
Open 4,060.34 · High 4,070.77 · Low 4,028.19
Daily RSI 40.24
BearishSilverXAGUSD · 09:40 GMT
53.94
−0.4668 (−0.86%)
Open 54.388 · High 54.531 · Low 53.703
Daily RSI 32.92
BearishPalladiumXPDUSD · 09:43 GMT
1,014.80
−9.106 (−0.89%)
Open 1,022.18 · High 1,031.38 · Low 1,012.82
Daily RSI 25.53
BearishNatural GasNGAS · 09:49 GMT
3.043
+1.7% on the December contract
Open 3.071 · High 3.079 · Low 3.043
Daily RSI 53.36
BullishCrude OilWTI · 09:49 GMT
101.42
+1.21 (+1.21%)
Open 100.17 · High 102.24 · Low 99.75
Daily RSI 61.67
BullishWheatCBOT CFD · 09:50 GMT
622.2
+0.3 (+0.05%)
Open 621.9 · High 624.2 · Low 618.9
Daily RSI 24.84
NeutralDesk bias, today Mixed Crude bullish above 99.75; metals bearish below their channel tops
Market Overview
Oil is bid, metals are boxed in, and one event decides the day. WTI holds 101.42 after the Houthis claimed a missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, its largest, though Riyadh has not confirmed damage. Gold (4,054.05), silver (53.94) and palladium (1,014.80) are pinned under falling-channel tops, with December Federal Reserve (Fed) hike odds near 84%, so the 18:00 GMT decision is the pivot. The desk plan: buy WTI dips above 99.75, sell metal rallies into their channel tops, and treat natural gas (November expiry today) and wheat (RSI 24.84) as lower-conviction dip buys.
Key highlights
- Bias: Long WTI, natural gas and wheat; short gold, silver and palladium on rallies.
- Levels: WTI 99.75 and 102.24; gold 4,000 and 4,119.79; silver 53.46 and 54.53.
- Event risk: EIA 14:30 GMT, Fed 18:00 GMT, Warsh 18:30 GMT.
Commodity Trade Tickets for Today
Gold (XAUUSD)
ShortMedium conviction- Entry zone
- 4,095.00–4,120.00Average 4,107.50
- Stop loss
- 4,152.00−44 points
- Take profit 1
- 4,000.00+108 points
- Take profit 2
- 3,940.00+168 points
- Take profit 3
- 3,890.00+218 points
- Valid until
- 00:00 GMTThu 29 Oct
Average entry 4,107.50. Risk 44 points (about 1.1% of entry). Reward:risk 2.4 to TP1, 3.8 to TP2, 4.9 to TP3. 1 point = 1.
Why this trade: Sell the rally into the falling-channel top and 4,119.79 fast average. Oil-driven inflation fears keep December hike odds near 84%.
Cancel if: A 4-hour close above 4,152, or a dovish surprise at 18:00 GMT. Cancel if unfilled by 18:00 GMT Wed 28 Oct.
Silver (XAGUSD)
ShortLow–medium conviction- Entry zone
- 54.45–54.95Average 54.70
- Stop loss
- 55.80−110 points
- Take profit 1
- 53.46+124 points
- Take profit 2
- 52.41+229 points
- Take profit 3
- 50.00+470 points
- Valid until
- 00:00 GMTThu 29 Oct
Average entry 54.70. Risk 110 points (about 2.0% of entry). Reward:risk 1.1 to TP1, 2.1 to TP2, 4.3 to TP3. 1 point = 0.01.
Why this trade: Silver holds near its lowest since November 2025 inside a falling channel. Sell a bounce into 54.53 and let the Fed decide the break of 53.46.
Cancel if: A daily close above 55.80, which would end the liquidation. Cancel if unfilled by 18:00 GMT Wed 28 Oct.
Palladium (XPDUSD)
ShortLow–medium conviction- Entry zone
- 1,035.00–1,055.00Average 1,045.00
- Stop loss
- 1,078.00−33 points
- Take profit 1
- 1,000.00+45 points
- Take profit 2
- 965.00+80 points
- Take profit 3
- 905.00+140 points
- Valid until
- 00:00 GMTThu 29 Oct
Average entry 1,045.00. Risk 33 points (about 3.2% of entry). Reward:risk 1.4 to TP1, 2.4 to TP2, 4.2 to TP3. 1 point = 1.
Why this trade: A steep falling channel and a third straight Reuters forecast cut keep sellers in control, though RSI is deeply oversold, so entries need a bounce.
Cancel if: A close above 1,078 or a squeeze through the fast average. Cancel if unfilled by 18:00 GMT Wed 28 Oct.
Natural Gas (NGAS)
LongLow–medium conviction- Entry zone
- 2.980–3.020Average 3.000
- Stop loss
- 2.930−70 points
- Take profit 1
- 3.200+200 points
- Take profit 2
- 3.300+300 points
- Take profit 3
- 3.400+400 points
- Valid until
- 00:00 GMTThu 29 Oct
Average entry 3.000. Risk 70 points (about 2.3% of entry). Reward:risk 2.9 to TP1, 4.3 to TP2, 5.7 to TP3. 1 point = 0.001.
Why this trade: Price has reclaimed the fast average after the oversold flush. Buy a dip into the 2.96–3.02 average cluster as LNG feedgas stays near capacity.
Cancel if: A close under 2.93, or a bearish weather revision. Cancel if unfilled by 18:00 GMT Wed 28 Oct.
Crude Oil (WTI)
LongMedium conviction- Entry zone
- 99.80–100.60Average 100.20
- Stop loss
- 98.90−130 points
- Take profit 1
- 102.24+204 points
- Take profit 2
- 104.20+400 points
- Take profit 3
- 106.00+580 points
- Valid until
- 00:00 GMTThu 29 Oct
Average entry 100.20. Risk 130 points (about 1.3% of entry). Reward:risk 1.6 to TP1, 3.1 to TP2, 4.5 to TP3. 1 point = 0.01.
Why this trade: Houthi claim on Ras Tanura revives supply risk, with Brent near 115.59. Buy the dip above the session low while price coils under the triangle top.
Cancel if: A 4-hour close under 98.90, or Saudi denial plus a hawkish Fed. Cancel if unfilled by 18:00 GMT Wed 28 Oct.
Wheat (CBOT CFD)
LongLow conviction- Entry zone
- 619.0–625.0Average 622.0
- Stop loss
- 608.0−14 points
- Take profit 1
- 640.0+18 points
- Take profit 2
- 655.0+33 points
- Take profit 3
- 667.2+45 points
- Valid until
- 00:00 GMTThu 29 Oct
Average entry 622.0. Risk 14 points (about 2.3% of entry). Reward:risk 1.3 to TP1, 2.4 to TP2, 3.2 to TP3. 1 point = 1.
Why this trade: Counter-trend bounce from the channel floor with RSI at 24.84, the deepest oversold read on the board. Conviction is low as crop news stays heavy.
Cancel if: A close under 608, or fresh crop upgrades. Cancel if unfilled by 18:00 GMT Wed 28 Oct.
Conditional levels, not investment advice.
Price Ladders: Every Level That Matters Today
Gold
| Price | Level | What it is | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4,281.34 | Resistance | Slow average | +227 points |
| 4,218.06 | Resistance | Medium average | +164 points |
| 4,119.79 | Resistance 1 | Fast average, channel top | +66 points |
| 4,054.05 | Price now | Captured 09:39 GMT | 0 points |
| 4,095.00–4,120.00 | Entry zone | Short idea; stop 4,152.00 | +41 to +66 points |
| 4,000.00 | Support 1 | Round number, sub-4,000 low zone | −54 points |
| 3,940.00 | Support 2 | Desk bear level | −114 points |
| 3,890.00 | Support 3 | Chart axis support | −164 points |
Silver
| Price | Level | What it is | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57.84 | Resistance 3 | Fast average | +390 points |
| 55.77 | Resistance 2 | Rejection zone | +183 points |
| 54.53 | Resistance 1 | Session high | +59 points |
| 53.94 | Price now | Captured 09:40 GMT | 0 points |
| 54.45–54.95 | Entry zone | Short idea; stop 55.80 | +51 to +101 points |
| 53.46 | Support 1 | Intraday support | −48 points |
| 52.41 | Support 2 | Next floor | −153 points |
| 50.00 | Support 3 | Round number | −394 points |
Palladium
| Price | Level | What it is | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1,226.40 | Resistance 3 | Medium average | +212 points |
| 1,101.04 | Resistance 2 | Fast average | +86 points |
| 1,045.00 | Resistance 1 | Breakdown shelf | +30 points |
| 1,014.80 | Price now | Captured 09:43 GMT | 0 points |
| 1,035.00–1,055.00 | Entry zone | Short idea; stop 1,078.00 | +20 to +40 points |
| 1,000.00 | Support 1 | Round number | −15 points |
| 965.00 | Support 2 | Chart axis support | −50 points |
| 905.00 | Support 3 | Chart axis support | −110 points |
Natural Gas
| Price | Level | What it is | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.400 | Resistance 3 | Channel top | +357 points |
| 3.300 | Resistance 2 | Late-September high | +257 points |
| 3.200 | Resistance 1 | Chart axis resistance | +157 points |
| 3.043 | Price now | Captured 09:49 GMT | 0 points |
| 2.980–3.020 | Entry zone | Long idea; stop 2.930 | −63 to −23 points |
| 3.017 | Support 1 | Fast average | −26 points |
| 2.965 | Support 2 | Medium average | −78 points |
| 2.958 | Support 3 | Slow average | −85 points |
Crude Oil
| Price | Level | What it is | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 106.00 | Resistance 3 | September high | +458 points |
| 104.20 | Resistance 2 | Triangle top | +278 points |
| 102.24 | Resistance 1 | Session high | +82 points |
| 101.42 | Price now | Captured 09:49 GMT | 0 points |
| 99.80–100.60 | Entry zone | Long idea; stop 98.90 | −162 to −82 points |
| 99.75 | Support 1 | Session low | −167 points |
| 95.72 | Support 2 | Fast average | −570 points |
| 93.44 | Support 3 | Medium average | −798 points |
Wheat
| Price | Level | What it is | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 704.0 | Resistance 3 | Medium average | +82 points |
| 667.2 | Resistance 2 | Fast average, channel top | +45 points |
| 655.0 | Resistance 1 | Chart axis resistance | +33 points |
| 622.2 | Price now | Captured 09:50 GMT | 0 points |
| 619.0–625.0 | Entry zone | Long idea; stop 608.0 | −3 to +3 points |
| 618.9 | Support 1 | Session low, channel floor | −3 points |
| 595.0 | Support 2 | Chart axis support | −27 points |
| 575.0 | Support 3 | July swing low | −47 points |
Technical Summary: Six Daily Charts
Gold
- Trend
- Price sits inside a falling channel, below its upper edge near 4,100–4,120.
- Averages
- Below 4,119.79, 4,218.06 and 4,281.34.
- Momentum
- RSI 40.24, just under its 41.02 average and the 50 midline.
Silver
- Trend
- Price hugs the channel floor after the sub-54 flush.
- Averages
- Under 57.84, 61.89 and 62.43.
- Momentum
- RSI 32.92, below its 36.71 average and near oversold.
Palladium
- Trend
- Price rides the lower half of a falling channel.
- Averages
- Far below 1,101.04, 1,226.40 and 1,247.52.
- Momentum
- RSI 25.53 against a 31.51 average: oversold, bounce risk.
Natural Gas
- Trend
- Price rebounds from a spike low back to the broken channel base.
- Averages
- Above 3.017, 2.965 and 2.958.
- Momentum
- RSI 53.36, above its 48.18 average and the 50 line.
Crude Oil
- Trend
- Price squeezes between a falling top line near 104 and a rising floor.
- Averages
- Above 95.72, 93.44 and 86.36.
- Momentum
- RSI 61.67, above its 59.27 average, not overbought.
Wheat
- Trend
- Price tags the floor of a falling channel from the September peak.
- Averages
- Far below 667.2, 671.5 and 704.
- Momentum
- RSI 24.84 versus a 33.34 average: deeply oversold.
Bull vs Bear Signal Board
| Market | Trend | Averages | Momentum | Today’s catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Bearish | Bearish | Neutral | Hawkish Fed, firm dollar Bearish |
| Silver | Bearish | Bearish | Neutral | Lowest since Nov 2025 Bearish |
| Palladium | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish | Forecast cuts, weak autos Bearish |
| Natural Gas | Neutral | Bullish | Bullish | Nov expiry, mild weather Neutral |
| Crude Oil | Bullish | Bullish | Bullish | Ras Tanura claim, API draw Bullish |
| Wheat | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish | Australia, Argentina crops Bearish |
Today on the GMT Clock
- US equity market opens
- 13:30 GMT
- Wed 28 Oct · Low impact
- Risk appetite test for crude and metals
- EIA crude oil inventories
- 14:30 GMT
- Wed 28 Oct · High impact
- Forecast −0.3M; a bigger draw backs the 99.80–100.60 dip-buy in WTI
- US rate decision; hold expected
- 18:00 GMT
- Wed 28 Oct · High impact
- Hawkish tone pressures gold, silver and palladium
- CBOT grains settle
- 18:20 GMT
- Wed 28 Oct · Medium impact
- Wheat settlement sets the tone for the 619–625 entry
- Chair Warsh press conference; NYMEX November gas expires
- 18:30 GMT
- Wed 28 Oct · High impact
- Guidance steers metals; December gas takes over as front month
- Daily candle closes
- 00:00 GMT
- Thu 29 Oct · Medium impact
- Closes beyond today’s key levels set Thursday’s tone
Swipe sideways for all events.
If-Then Playbook
If Gold: price rallies into 4,095–4,120
Then go short; targets 4,000, 3,940, 3,890
If Gold: a 4-hour candle closes above 4,152
Then drop the short; next resistance 4,218
If Silver: price lifts into 54.45–54.95
Then go short; targets 53.46, 52.41, 50.00
If Silver: price closes 4 hours above 55.80
Then stand aside; 57.84 comes into play
If Palladium: price bounces to 1,035–1,055
Then go short; targets 1,000, 965, 905
If Palladium: price holds above 1,055 for a 4-hour close
Then wait; oversold squeeze may reach 1,101
If Natural Gas: price dips to 2.98–3.02
Then go long; targets 3.20, 3.30, 3.40
If Natural Gas: price closes 4 hours under 2.93
Then drop the idea; 2.55 opens
If Crude Oil: price dips to 99.80–100.60
Then go long; targets 102.24, 104.20, 106.00
If Crude Oil: a 4-hour candle closes above 104.20
Then hold for 106.00; confirmed damage opens 110
If Wheat: price steadies at 619–625
Then go long; targets 640, 655, 667.2
If Wheat: price closes a day under 608
Then drop the idea; 595 is next
Catalyst Wire: Fundamental News Today
US rate decision at 18:00 GMT; hold expected, December hike priced near 84%
Traders expect rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%, but oil-driven inflation fears keep December hike odds near 84% on CME FedWatch. Chair Warsh speaks at 18:30 GMT.
Source: Reuters via CNBC, 28 Oct 2026
Houthis claim missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery
Brent rose about 1.3% to near 115.59 and WTI to near 101 after the claim on the 550,000 bpd site. Riyadh has not confirmed damage, so the market prices risk, not lost barrels.
Source: Reuters, CNBC, FXStreet, 28 Oct 2026
Oil spike lifts inflation fears and pins gold near 4,045
Spot gold slipped about 0.3% after Tuesday’s 1% gain. Silver fell 0.6% to 54.06 while palladium rose 0.5% to 1,030.80 in early trade.
Source: Reuters via CNBC, 28 Oct 2026
API shows a 2.03M barrel crude draw; EIA due 14:30 GMT
The draw beat a forecast build of 800,000 barrels, with Cushing down 453,000. Investing.com lists the EIA forecast at a 300,000 barrel draw.
Source: API, oilprice.com, Investing.com, 28 Oct 2026
November natural gas expires today as Henry Hub spot hits a 2024 low
Short covering and LNG feedgas near 18.3 bcfd lifted futures on Tuesday, but mild weather keeps storage builds in focus. December becomes front month after settlement.
Source: P&GJ, NGI, Finimize, 27–28 Oct 2026
Larger Australian and Argentine crop forecasts weigh on Chicago wheat
December CBOT wheat fell 0.93% on Tuesday as forecasts of 32 mln t in Australia and 23 mln t in Argentina topped USDA estimates.
Source: UkrAgroConsult, 28 Oct 2026
Analysts cut platinum and palladium 2026 forecasts for a third quarter
A Reuters survey cites cooling demand and a darker auto outlook, with a rebound still expected in 2027.
Source: Reuters survey, 28 Oct 2026
Conclusion
Desk verdict: long WTI 99.80–100.60; short gold 4,095–4,120.
Crude carries the cleanest setup while the Ras Tanura claim stands, with 102.24 first. Gold, silver and palladium are sells on rallies into their channel tops, with stops at 4,152, 55.80 and 1,078. Natural gas and wheat are lower-conviction dip buys. The main risk is the 18:00 GMT Fed decision, where a hawkish tone could crack 4,000 in gold and 53.46 in silver.
Trade gold, silver, oil and other commodities with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the commodity outlook for today?
Mixed. Crude leans bullish while the Ras Tanura claim stands; gold, silver and palladium lean bearish below their falling-channel tops into the 18:00 GMT Fed decision.
Which commodity trade ideas are live today?
Short gold, silver and palladium on rallies; long WTI crude oil, natural gas and wheat on dips, each with a stop and three targets.
Why does the Fed decision matter for gold today?
A hold is expected, but December hike odds near 84% mean any hawkish tone lifts yields and the dollar, pressuring non-yielding gold and silver.
What time is the Fed decision in GMT?
The decision lands at 18:00 GMT (14:00 US Eastern), followed by the Warsh press conference at 18:30 GMT.
Why is natural gas moving on 28 October?
The November contract expires today and December becomes front month, so continuous charts show a roll gap; the CFD gain is about 1.7%.
