Gold Smashed Below $4,000 and Eyeing $3,900 as a 19-Month-High Dollar and Fed Hike Bets Hammer Metals, While Natural Gas Breaks Against the Tide | Technical Analysis – Commodity Report | 12 Nov 2026
LIVE Commodities | Thursday 12 November 2026
Gold Smashed Below $4,000 and Eyeing $3,900 as a 19-Month-High Dollar and Fed Hike Bets Hammer Metals, While Natural Gas Breaks Against the Tide
Market Overview
Gold has been smashed below $4,000 for a third straight session, and the dollar, at its highest since April 2025, is dragging silver and copper toward the floors of their downtrend channels. Hot October CPI (+0.4% against 0.3% expected) and Waller’s call to consider a 50 basis point hike have pushed a December Fed hike to roughly 91% or higher, with Logan backing at least two more increases, and every dollar-priced commodity is paying for it. As of 09:10 GMT, gold trades near 3,931 (−1.4%) with the 08:50 GMT chart at 3,940.72, silver is at 51.07 (−1.11%), copper at 6.308 (−0.65%), WTI at 86.78 (+0.43%), wheat at 610.7 (−0.42%) and natural gas at 3.283 (+2.12%).
Natural gas is the one market fighting the tide: cooler forecasts and record LNG flows of 19.3 bcfd have it leaning on the top of a four-month channel, and a 3.40 break would be today’s biggest upside move in the complex. The next hard tests are US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT, the 14:30 GMT equity open, EIA gas storage at 15:30 GMT, the EIA petroleum report at about 17:00 GMT, and Daly at 18:10 and Schmid at 18:30 GMT. RSI readings of 40.26 in gold, 37.89 in silver, 37.22 in crude and 33.41 in wheat show sellers in control with room to fall, while 61.75 in natural gas shows buyers in charge. Desk plan: sell bounces in gold below 4,045, silver, copper, crude and wheat, and buy natural gas dips near 3.15. US data have not printed yet and the US session has not opened.
Key highlights
- Gold: Price 3,940.72 is under all three averages with RSI 40.26; 4,000 caps and 3,900 supports.
- Copper: Price 6.308 sits on the channel floor; 6.48 caps and 6.25 supports.
- Silver: Price 51.07 is under the 53.29 average with RSI 37.89; 52.60 caps and 50.00 supports.
- Natural Gas: Price 3.283 is above all three averages with RSI 61.75; 3.40 caps and 3.15 holds.
- Crude Oil: WTI 86.78 is under the 87.53 average after the trendline break; 88.20 caps and 85.20 supports.
- Wheat: Price 610.7 is under the 623.5 average with RSI 33.41; 623.5 caps and 600 supports.
What’s Moving Commodities Today
Gold trades under $4,000 for a third straight session as the dollar hits its highest since April 2025
October CPI rose 0.4% against 0.3% expected, and Fed Governor Waller said a 50 basis point December hike may be needed while Dallas Fed’s Logan backed at least two more quarter-point increases. A December hike is priced at roughly 91% (Trading Economics), with further moves possible in January and April. Spot gold fell to around 3,987 overnight, the chart feed showed 3,940.72 at 08:50 GMT and Trading Economics has about 3,931 at 09:10 GMT.
Source: Trading Economics, Goodreturns, 12 Nov 2026
Silver slides toward $51 after failing at $53, down about 13% in a month
Silver surged to near $53 on 11 November despite rising US bond yields (FXStreet), then reversed lower as the hawkish Fed repricing lifted the dollar. Investors are watching jobless claims, existing home sales and producer inflation for the next clue on Fed policy.
Source: FXStreet, Trading Economics, 11 to 12 Nov 2026
Copper approaches fresh four-month lows as the strong dollar overrides China’s record import premiums
LME three-month copper rose 0.9% to $13,805 a tonne at 17:15 GMT yesterday after falling 1.6% on Tuesday on fears that the Democrats’ midterm sweep could bring tougher AI regulation, then CoreWeave’s results lifted stocks. Today the dollar is back in control; LME stocks are near 320,000 tonnes, but the Yangshan premium held at a record $230 a tonne.
Source: Reuters via Mining.com.au, Trading Economics, 12 Nov 2026
Natural gas holds near a six-week high on cooler forecasts and record LNG flows ahead of today’s EIA storage report
Forecasts turned cooler across parts of the central and eastern US through 20 November, LNG feedgas is averaging a record 19.3 bcfd so far in November and Lower 48 output slipped to 112.1 bcfd from 113.4 in October. Inventories were about 2.1% above the five-year average in the latest data.
Source: Trading Economics, Reuters, 12 Nov 2026
WTI recoups early losses near $87 as US-Iran talks stall, but Ukraine peace hopes and rising OPEC output cap gains
Brent was near $91.3 and WTI near $85.3 at about 06:35 GMT before crude rebounded. Iran says enriched uranium will not leave the country and Hormuz tanker attacks continue, while markets price quiet diplomacy toward a ceasefire. OPEC output rose in October, the API reported a crude build, and Ukrainian drones have disrupted refineries handling about 30% of Russia’s capacity.
Source: Oilprice.com via Yahoo Finance, Reuters, ING, Trading Economics, 12 Nov 2026
Wheat holds near its lows as Black Sea peace talks and big global supply weigh
US-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November raised hopes of restoring Black Sea shipments that have been nearly halted since mid-August, and StoneX’s Matt Ammermann said the market is focused on them. The USDA’s November report raised world ending stocks to 280.8 million tonnes against 277.1 expected, and Lithuania’s origin checks on Russian and Belarusian grain add friction while French wheat gains buyers.
Source: Reuters via Business Recorder, Ag Optimus, Trading Economics, 10 to 12 Nov 2026
Fed speakers set the tone into the US session, with Daly at 18:10 GMT and Schmid at 18:30 GMT
Waller and Logan have already leaned hawkish, so any support for a 50 basis point move would extend the dollar rally and pressure gold, silver, copper and crude, while a soft jobless claims print at 13:30 GMT would do the opposite.
Source: Investing.com calendar, Trading Economics, 12 Nov 2026
Key Drivers for the Rest of Today
Six things that set direction for the rest of the session in gold, copper, silver, natural gas, crude oil and wheat. All times are GMT.
- US jobless claims
- 13:30
- Thu 12 Nov, 13:30 GMT
- Previous print 189K, with 194K to 195K expected; the first test of the dollar rally for gold, silver and copper
- US equity open
- 14:30
- Thu 12 Nov, 14:30 GMT
- Equity sentiment (AI names) drove yesterday’s copper rebound; existing home sales follow at 15:00 GMT
- EIA natural gas storage
- 15:30
- Thu 12 Nov, 15:30 GMT
- Stocks sit about 2.1% above the five-year average; a larger-than-expected draw would back the 3.28 breakout
- EIA petroleum report
- 17:00
- Thu 12 Nov, about 17:00 GMT
- Delayed from Wednesday; one calendar lists 17:00 GMT. The API reported a crude build on Tuesday
- Daly and Schmid speak
- 18:10
- Thu 12 Nov, 18:10 and 18:30 GMT
- Any support for 50 basis points lifts the dollar and pressures metals and crude
- Setup expiry and daily close
- 21:00
- Thu 12 Nov, 21:00 and 22:00 GMT
- Unfilled ideas lapse at 21:00 GMT and daily candles close at 22:00 GMT; Williams speaks at 23:30 GMT
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order gold, copper, silver, natural gas, crude oil and wheat, valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Short | 4,000 | 4,045 | 3,940 | 3,900 | 1.3 / 2.2 | Medium |
| Copper | Short | 6.46 | 6.55 | 6.30 | 6.20 | 1.8 / 2.9 | Low |
| Silver | Short | 52.60 | 53.55 | 51.00 | 50.00 | 1.7 / 2.7 | Medium |
| Natural Gas | Long | 3.15 | 3.05 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 1.5 / 2.5 | Medium |
| Crude Oil | Short | 88.20 | 90.20 | 85.20 | 83.00 | 1.5 / 2.6 | Medium |
| Wheat | Short | 626 | 638 | 600 | 585 | 2.2 / 3.4 | Medium |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. A third target for each instrument is in its section below. Levels come from the daily charts captured at 08:50 to 08:52 GMT on the TVC (gold, silver, WTI), Capital.com (copper), NYMEX (natural gas) and SelfInvest (wheat) feeds. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger, and data at 13:30 GMT can gap prices through them. Five ideas are short (gold, copper, silver, crude oil and wheat) and one is long (natural gas), so a hawkish Fed surprise would help the five shorts while a stronger heating-demand story would help the long. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT, EIA gas storage at 15:30 GMT and the Fed speakers at 18:10 and 18:30 GMT are the swing factors for the rest of today.
If claims stay low and Fed speakers back 50 basis points, the dollar extends its run and commodities slide
Hawkish talk from Daly or Schmid and a low claims print would lift Fed hike pricing, pushing gold, silver and copper toward their channel floors. Crude would fall on Ukraine peace hopes and wheat on Black Sea optimism, while natural gas would slip back from its channel top if the EIA draw disappoints.
- Gold3,900, then 3,800
- Copper6.25, then 6.00
- Silver50.00, then 48.80
- Natural Gas3.15, then 3.05
- Crude Oil85.20, then 83.00
- Wheat600, then 585
If claims jump, equities rally at the US open or Iran and cold weather tighten supply, commodities bounce
A higher claims print would trim Fed hike odds and pull the dollar off its 19-month high, giving gold, silver and copper a bounce into overhead resistance. A Hormuz flare-up would lift crude, a stalled Abu Dhabi deal would lift wheat, and a large EIA storage draw would send natural gas through 3.40.
- Gold4,000, then 4,041
- Copper6.48, then 6.60
- Silver52.60, then 53.29
- Natural Gas3.40, then 3.50
- Crude Oil87.53, then 90.00
- Wheat624, then 640
Gold (XAU/USD) | TVC chart feed, quoted in $/oz
Gold Analysis: Price Slips Under $4,000 for a Third Session as a 19-Month-High Dollar and Fed Hike Bets Crush the Bounce
3,940.72 −46.98 (−1.18%) on the chart feed Previous close 3,987.70 | Range 3,937.68 to 4,000.48 | Trading Economics 3,931 (−1.4%) at 09:10 GMT
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces with medium conviction. Gold has traded below $4,000 for a third straight session and is near 3,931 at 09:10 GMT as hot October CPI (+0.4% against 0.3% expected) lifted the dollar to its highest since April 2025 and Fed officials opened the door to a larger December hike: Waller said 50 basis points may be needed and Logan has backed at least two more quarter-point moves. A December hike is priced at roughly 91% on Trading Economics’ read, and some trackers show close to 100%, which raises the cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 3,790
- Support 1
- 3,900
- Resistance 1
- 4,000
- Resistance 2
- 4,041
- Price (3,940.72) is under all three averages (4,041.19, 4,167.95 and 4,194.00) and about 160 points above the channel floor near 3,790 to 3,800. Main catalysts: US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT, the dollar and Treasury yields into the 14:30 GMT US open, and Daly at 18:10 and Schmid at 18:30 GMT.
- RSI 40.26 under its 41.83 average: momentum is bearish but not oversold, so there is room to run. A close under 3,900 opens the early-November low near 3,790; a close above 4,041 puts the sell-the-bounce view on hold and targets the upper channel line near 4,130.
Setup: Short at 4,000, stop 4,045, targets 3,940, 3,900 and 3,800. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.2 / 4.4, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 4,045, or if the dollar index slips back under 102.50 after claims. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Copper (XCU/USD) | Capital.com chart feed, quoted in $/lb
Copper Analysis: Price Presses the Channel Floor Near 6.25 as a Strong Dollar Outweighs Record Chinese Import Premiums
6.308 −0.04125 (−0.65%) on the chart feed Previous close 6.34961 | Range 6.29486 to 6.35836 | Trading Economics shows 6.19 to 6.20 on a different CFD feed, down about 1.2%
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces with low conviction, because price already sits on the channel floor and physical tightness in China can trigger a quick rebound. Copper is approaching fresh four-month lows as the hawkish Fed repricing lifts the dollar, while LME stocks near 320,000 tonnes and midterm-driven worries about tougher AI regulation weigh on demand hopes. Support comes from China: the Yangshan premium held at a record $230 a tonne for a third day, and LME three-month copper recovered 0.9% to $13,805 at 17:15 GMT yesterday.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 6.00
- Support 1
- 6.25
- Resistance 1
- 6.48
- Resistance 2
- 6.60
- Price (6.308) is on the channel floor, about 0.18 under the 6.48 high of 9 November and 0.30 above the June low near 6.00. Main catalysts: the dollar after US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT, equity sentiment into the 14:30 GMT US open (AI names drove yesterday’s rebound) and any Chinese physical premium headlines.
- No oscillator is shown on this chart, so trade the channel: a daily close under 6.25 breaks the floor and targets 6.00, while a close above 6.48 puts the downtrend in doubt and targets the upper line near 6.85.
Setup: Short at 6.46, stop 6.55, targets 6.30, 6.20 and 6.00. Reward:risk 1.8 / 2.9 / 5.1, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 6.55, or if the dollar index drops and equities rally hard at the US open. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Silver (XAG/USD) | TVC chart feed, quoted in $/oz
Silver Analysis: Rally Toward $53 Fails Again as the Hawkish Fed View Sends Price Back to the Channel Floor Near $50
51.07 −0.5713 (−1.11%) on the chart feed Previous close 51.64 | Range 51.03 to 51.95 | Trading Economics 51.25, down about 0.7%; gold-silver ratio near 77.2
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces with medium conviction. Silver touched about $53 yesterday despite rising bond yields, but the CPI-driven dollar rally and Waller and Logan’s hawkish comments reversed it, and the metal is down about 13% over the past month. With the gold-silver ratio near 77.2, silver has no relative-value support against gold, and the industrial side is sharing copper’s soft tone.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 48.80
- Support 1
- 50.00
- Resistance 1
- 53.29
- Resistance 2
- 55.00
- Price (51.07) is under all three averages (53.29, 58.91 and 60.22) and about 2 above the channel floor near 48.80 to 49.00. Main catalysts: US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT, US yields into the 14:30 GMT US open and Fed speakers at 18:10 and 18:30 GMT.
- RSI 37.89 over its 34.66 average: momentum is weak and starting to turn, so bounces can be sharp but should meet sellers at the 53.29 average. A close under 50.00 targets 48.80; a close above 53.29 would end the sell-the-bounce view and open 55.00.
Setup: Short at 52.60, stop 53.55, targets 51.00, 50.00 and 48.80. Reward:risk 1.7 / 2.7 / 4.0, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 53.55, or if gold reclaims 4,041 on a dollar reversal. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Natural Gas (NYMEX front month) | NYMEX futures chart feed, quoted in $/MMBtu
Natural Gas Analysis: Price Tests the Top of Its Falling Channel as Record LNG Flows and Cooler Forecasts Meet Today’s EIA Storage Report
3.283 +0.068 (+2.12%) on the chart feed Previous close 3.215 | Range 3.226 to 3.294 | Trading Economics 3.29 (+2.5%) at 09:10 GMT and a six-week high near 3.33 on 11 Nov
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips with medium conviction. Natural gas is up 2.1% and pressing the upper line of the channel that has held since late July after rebounding about 30% from the late-October low near 2.50. Forecasts turned cooler across the central and eastern US through 20 November, LNG feedgas is averaging a record 19.3 bcfd this month and Lower 48 output has eased to about 112.1 bcfd, while inventories sit about 2.1% above the five-year average. The EIA storage report is the scheduled test today.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 3.00
- Support 1
- 3.15
- Resistance 1
- 3.40
- Resistance 2
- 3.50
- Price (3.283) is above all three averages (3.002, 2.960 and 2.952) and just under the 3.40 high of 11 November. Main catalysts: the EIA storage report at 15:30 GMT, the latest weather model runs through the US session, and LNG feedgas data.
- RSI 61.75 over its 50.84 average: momentum is firm but not stretched, so a pullback to the breakout area near 3.15 is the better entry. A daily close above 3.40 confirms the channel break and targets 3.50; a close under 3.05 puts the pair back inside the range and targets 3.00.
Setup: Long at 3.15, stop 3.05, targets 3.30, 3.40 and 3.50. Reward:risk 1.5 / 2.5 / 3.5, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 3.05, or if the EIA print shows a build well above expectations and forecasts warm. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
WTI Crude Oil | TVC CFD chart feed, quoted in $/bbl
Crude Oil Analysis: WTI Retests the 87.53 Average From Below After Breaking Its Rising Trendline as Iran Talks Stall and Ukraine Peace Hopes Grow
86.78 +0.37 (+0.43%) on the chart feed Previous close 86.41 | Range 85.20 to 87.54 | Trading Economics 86.60 to 86.76 at 09:10 GMT; Brent near 91.3 at about 06:35 GMT
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces with medium conviction, though headline risk is two-way. Crude has recouped part of its early loss as US-Iran talks stay deadlocked, Tehran says it will not give up “a single atom” of enriched uranium and attacks on tankers near Hormuz continue. Against that, markets expect behind-the-scenes efforts toward a ceasefire, OPEC output rose in October (Saudi Arabia up 26%), the API reported a US crude build and Middle East flows are recovering. WTI is still about 20% under its October peak, and Brent was near 91.3 at about 06:35 GMT.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 80.50
- Support 1
- 85.20
- Resistance 1
- 87.53
- Resistance 2
- 90.00
- Price (86.78) is under the 87.53 average and well under the 94.95 and 95.67 averages, and sits about 1.6 above today’s low at 85.20. Main catalysts: the weekly EIA petroleum report later today (one calendar lists 17:00 GMT, delayed from Wednesday), Iran and Hormuz headlines, and Russian refinery disruptions from Ukrainian drone attacks.
- RSI 37.22 under its 48.28 average: momentum is bearish, not yet oversold. A close under 85.20 targets 83.00 and the 80.50 area; a close above 90.00 would reclaim the broken trendline and end the sell-the-bounce view.
Setup: Short at 88.20, stop 90.20, targets 85.20, 83.00 and 80.50. Reward:risk 1.5 / 2.6 / 3.9, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 90.20, or on a fresh Hormuz escalation or collapse of the Iran talks. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Wheat CFD | SelfInvest chart feed, quoted in US cents/bu
Wheat Analysis: Price Sits in the Lower Half of Its Falling Channel as Black Sea Peace Talks and Ample Global Supply Cap Rallies
610.7 −2.6 (−0.42%) on the chart feed Previous close 613.3 | Range 610.5 to 615.8 | Trading Economics shows 599.2 on a different wheat contract, down 0.04%
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces with medium conviction. Wheat is down about 10% over the past month after US-brokered Russia-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November raised hopes of restoring Black Sea shipments, which have been nearly halted since mid-August. The USDA’s 10 November report added to supply: world ending stocks came in at 280.8 million tonnes against 277.1 expected, while US stocks of 743 million bushels were close to the 747 expected. Larger crops in Australia and Argentina and French export demand keep the tone heavy.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 575
- Support 1
- 600
- Resistance 1
- 624
- Resistance 2
- 640
- Price (610.7) is under all three averages (623.5, 672.3 and 675.9) and about 10 above the November low near 600. Main catalysts: any headline from the Abu Dhabi talks, Black Sea export headlines and the dollar after US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT.
- RSI 33.41 over its 26.33 average: momentum has turned up from deep oversold, so bounces are likely to meet sellers at the 623.5 average. A close under 600 targets 585 and the June low near 575; a close above 640 breaks the channel top and ends the bearish view.
Setup: Short at 626, stop 638, targets 600, 585 and 575. Reward:risk 2.2 / 3.4 / 4.2, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 638, or if the Abu Dhabi talks collapse and Black Sea shipments stay blocked. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Conclusion
A dollar at its highest since April 2025 and rising Fed hike odds favor selling bounces in gold near 4,000, silver near 52.60 (medium conviction), crude near 88.20 and wheat near 626 (medium), and copper near 6.46 (low) because it already sits on the channel floor. In natural gas we favor buying the dip near 3.15 (medium) as cooler weather and record LNG flows support the breakout attempt. The session risks are US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT, EIA gas storage at 15:30 GMT, Daly at 18:10 and Schmid at 18:30 GMT. A 4-hour close above 4,045 in gold or under 3.05 in natural gas would change the picture.
Trade Gold, Copper, Silver, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Wheat with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the commodity outlook for today?
Gold, silver and copper are under pressure from a dollar at a 19-month high and rising Fed hike bets, crude is two-way between Iran stalemate and Ukraine peace hopes, natural gas is testing its channel top on cooler weather and record LNG flows, and wheat is heavy on Black Sea peace talks. US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT, EIA gas storage at 15:30 GMT and the Fed speakers at 18:10 and 18:30 GMT are the scheduled tests.
Which commodity trade ideas are live today?
Short gold near 4,000, short copper near 6.46, short silver near 52.60, long natural gas near 3.15, short WTI crude near 88.20 and short wheat near 626, each with a stop and three targets valid until 21:00 GMT.
What time are the key events in GMT?
US jobless claims are at 13:30 GMT, the US equity open at 14:30, existing home sales at 15:00, EIA natural gas storage at 15:30, the EIA petroleum report at about 17:00, Daly at 18:10, Schmid at 18:30, setups expire at 21:00, daily candles close at 22:00 and Williams speaks at 23:30 GMT.
Why is gold falling below $4,000 today?
Hot October CPI and Waller’s call to consider a 50 basis point hike have pushed December Fed hike odds to roughly 91% or more and lifted the dollar to its highest since April 2025, which raises the opportunity cost of holding gold. It is the third straight session of losses.
Why is natural gas rising today?
Cooler forecasts through 20 November, record LNG feedgas of 19.3 bcfd and slightly lower output are lifting prices, which are up about 2.1% and testing the top of a falling channel.
