Bitcoin Clings to 80,000 After a $378M Short Squeeze as the Dollar Sinks to a One-Month Low and the BoE Has Hiked: the 13:30 GMT US Jobless Claims Decide Breakout or Fade | Technical Analysis – Crypto Report | 05 Nov 2026
LIVE Crypto | Thursday 5 November 2026 | 12:20 GMT snapshot, European session | BoE hiked to 4.00% | US jobless claims due 13:30 GMT
Bitcoin Clings to 80,000 After a $378M Short Squeeze as the Dollar Sinks to a One-Month Low and the BoE Has Hiked: the 13:30 GMT US Jobless Claims Decide Breakout or Fade
Market Overview
Bitcoin is fighting for its life at 80,000: the squeeze that rescued it from a near-two-month low is fading, and in the next 70 minutes the market learns whether it was a bottom or a bounce. Three forces collided in the last 48 hours. A Democratic sweep of Congress crushed the dollar to its lowest since 30 September, about $378 million of shorts were liquidated in under an hour, and US spot ETFs flipped back to $74.6 million of inflows after $1.16 billion of outflows. BTC (80,077, −0.44% on the daily candle) is now parked on its 80,132 average with 82,071 overhead and 76,985 underneath. Ether (2,410.8, −0.48%) is the strongest chart, XRP (1.3132, +0.70%) and Solana (95.87, +0.37%) are green, and BNB (712.79, −0.87%) is the odd one out, still carrying the scar of the $6.34 billion Binance hack.
The Bank of England has already hiked to 4.00%, so the dollar’s next move belongs to Washington. About an 80.7% chance of a December Fed hike is still priced, and US initial jobless claims land at 13:30 GMT, with consensus at 197K against 194K last time. A print under 194K says the labour market is too hot for the Fed to relent, lifts the dollar and strands crypto under its averages; a print above 200K extends the dollar slide and gives Bitcoin room to attack 82,071. The Wall Street open at 14:30 GMT is the second test. RSI readings of 49.50, 52.93, 49.58, 38.04 and 45.01 leave Ether as the only coin above 50 and Solana nearest to oversold. Desk plan: buy dips in Bitcoin, Ether and XRP, sell bounces in Solana and BNB. This report is a 12:20 GMT snapshot, and the claims figure is not yet out.
Key highlights
- Bitcoin: Price is 80,077 on the 80,132 average; 82,071 caps and 76,985 is the floor that keeps the rebound intact.
- Ethereum: Price is 2,410.8 above the 2,361.8 and 2,348.8 averages, RSI 52.93; 2,506 is the cap.
- XRP: Price is 1.3132 on the 1.31145 average inside a triangle; 1.2941 supports and 1.3860 caps.
- Solana: Price is 95.87 under all three averages with RSI 38.04; 98.96 to 99.83 is the sell zone.
- BNB: Price is 712.79 on the triangle floor above 704.30; 724.49 caps bounces.
What’s Moving Crypto Today
Bitcoin holds above 80,000 after a $378 million short squeeze as US spot ETFs flip back to inflows
Bitcoin recovered from about 75,600 as shorts were forced out in under an hour, and spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $74.6 million on 4 November, ending three sessions of outflows worth $1.16 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT still shed $201.2 million, its fourth straight outflow, while Fidelity’s fund took in about $237 million.
Source: Cointelegraph, crypto.news, SoSoValue and Farside data, 5 Nov 2026
Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4.00% at 12:00 GMT, its first hike since August 2023
The 25 bp rise was fully priced, and Governor Andrew Bailey said there was enough inflationary pressure in the pipeline from energy costs. Sterling had already run to its highest since mid-September near 1.349, so the guidance on further hikes, not the move itself, will set the dollar tone for the afternoon.
Source: MoneyWeek live blog, Mortgage Solutions, Bloomberg, Reuters, 5 Nov 2026
Dollar index slides to its lowest since 30 September as Democrats sweep Congress
The dollar index fell to about 101.25, extending Wednesday’s slide as oil and Treasury yields dropped. Markets still price about an 80.7% chance of a Fed hike in December, so a firm US labour print could revive dollar bids quickly.
Source: Reuters via Investing.com, FXStreet, 5 Nov 2026
Ether reclaims 2,400 as Ether ETFs end a seven-day outflow streak
Ether funds drew $53 million on 4 November after $657 million of outflows, and Ether is up about 6% over 24 hours. FXStreet notes price is holding above the 50, 100 and 200-day averages clustered between about 2,310 and 2,400.
Source: Cointelegraph, FXStreet, SoSoValue, 5 Nov 2026
Binance says 98% of hacked assets are replenished, but BNB lags the rebound
The 29 October breach hit about $6.34 billion of assets, and the FBI has linked it to North Korea’s TraderTraitor group, which Pyongyang rejects. BNB traded between 681.40 and 722.78 over 24 hours while the other majors rebounded harder.
Source: Binance, crypto.news, CoinGecko-based data, 5 Nov 2026
XRP climbs above 1.31 as whale balances rise and Ripple outlines new XRP Ledger use cases
Ripple and C2FO have announced an XRP Ledger and RLUSD settlement initiative, and CEO Brad Garlinghouse has said Ripple’s US policy goals are unchanged after the midterms. XRP trades just under the 50-day average near 1.34, which analysts treat as the key level.
Source: crypto.news, CaptainAltcoin, FXStreet, CoinPedia, 5 Nov 2026
Solana bounces off its rising trendline, but ETF demand is flat and hack wallets still hold SOL
Spot Solana ETFs saw zero flows on 2 and 3 November after a record $143.7 million October outflow. FXStreet has SOL testing its 200-day average near 98.08, with 102.71 and 110.60 next.
Source: TradingNews, FXStreet, Lookonchain via Coin-Turk, 5 Nov 2026
Democrats plan a crypto market-structure bill, while CryptoQuant warns the correction may not be over
Control of both chambers raises hopes for clearer rules but also slows deregulation, and a CryptoQuant contributor argues Bitcoin has not yet shown the conditions of a confirmed cycle bottom. Year-to-date Bitcoin ETF outflows stand at $1.84 billion.
Source: FXStreet, crypto.news, Reuters/LSEG Lipper data, 5 Nov 2026
Key Drivers for the Rest of Today
Five things that set direction for the rest of the session in Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana and BNB. All times are GMT.
- Bank of England rate decision (released)
- 12:00
- Thu 5 Nov, 12:00 GMT
- Bank Rate raised 25 bp to 4.00%; the guidance and a sterling reaction feed straight into the dollar and crypto
- US initial jobless claims
- 13:30
- Thu 5 Nov, 13:30 GMT
- Consensus 197K versus 194K prior. A print under 194K backs the 80.7% priced December Fed hike and caps crypto; above 200K extends the dollar slide
- Wall Street cash open
- 14:30
- Thu 5 Nov, 14:30 GMT
- US index futures rose about 0.3% on Wednesday after the sweep; a weak open would hit high-beta SOL and ETH first
- Binance, hack and policy headlines
- All day
- Thu 5 Nov, all day GMT
- Any new hacker-wallet move, Binance replenishment update or crypto-bill news can move BNB and SOL by several percent
- Setup expiry and daily close
- 21:00
- Thu 5 Nov, 21:00 and 00:00 GMT
- Unfilled ideas lapse at 21:00 GMT; crypto daily candles close at 00:00 GMT
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana and BNB, valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | Long | 78,800 | 76,700 | 81,200 | 82,070 | 1.1 / 1.6 | Medium |
| Ethereum (ETHUSD) | Long | 2,365.0 | 2,295.0 | 2,450.0 | 2,506.0 | 1.2 / 2.0 | Medium |
| XRP (XRPUSD) | Long | 1.2950 | 1.2500 | 1.3500 | 1.3860 | 1.2 / 2.0 | Low |
| Solana (SOLUSD) | Short | 99.50 | 103.00 | 95.00 | 91.50 | 1.3 / 2.3 | Low |
| BNB (BNBUSD) | Short | 724.00 | 738.00 | 706.00 | 697.00 | 1.3 / 1.9 | Low |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. A third target for each coin is in its section below. Prices are feed prices from the daily charts at about 12:20 GMT on 5 November. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger, and the 13:30 GMT jobless claims can gap prices through them. Three ideas are long and two are short, but crypto moves together, so a sharp risk-on spike would hit both shorts at once and a dollar bounce would hit all three longs. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
The 13:30 GMT jobless claims, the 14:30 GMT Wall Street open and Binance or policy headlines are the swing factors for the rest of today.
A strong jobs print and a firmer dollar: crypto gives back the midterm bounce
Strong claims data, a hawkish read of the BoE guidance or a weak Wall Street open would lift the dollar, pull Bitcoin and Ether back to their averages and send Solana and BNB toward the triangle floors.
- Bitcoin78,800, then 76,985
- Ethereum2,362, then 2,300
- XRP1.2941, then 1.2500
- Solana89.70, then 87.20
- BNB704.30, then 681.40
A soft jobs print and a weaker dollar: the short squeeze extends
Weak claims data, steady ETF inflows and a firm US open would push Bitcoin through its channel top and Ether toward its 2,506 average, and would lift XRP, Solana and BNB into their overhead averages.
- Bitcoin82,071, then 84,000
- Ethereum2,506, then 2,590
- XRP1.3859, then 1.4300
- Solana98.96, then 103.00
- BNB724.49, then 747.31
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | Bitstamp feed
Bitcoin Analysis: Price Pins the 80,000 Line Inside a Falling Channel After a Near-Two-Month Low
80,077 −357 (−0.44%) on the daily candle at about 12:20 GMT Previous close 80,434
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips while 76,985 holds. Bitcoin bounced from a near-two-month low around 75,600 on 3 November; US spot ETFs took in $74.6 million on 4 November, ending three sessions of outflows worth $1.16 billion, though BlackRock’s IBIT still lost $201 million. 82,000 is the cap.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 75,600
- Support 1
- 76,985
- Resistance 1
- 80,800
- Resistance 2
- 82,071
- Price (80,077) is just under the 80,132 average and the 82,071 average, and above the 76,985 average. Main catalyst: a $378 million short squeeze, ETF inflows and a softer dollar.
- RSI 49.50 above its 41.74 average: momentum has turned up. A close above 82,071 breaks the channel top; a close under 76,985 sends price back to the channel floor near 75,600.
Setup: Long at 78,800, stop 76,700, targets 81,200, 82,070 and 84,000. Reward:risk 1.1 / 1.6 / 2.5, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 76,700, or if a strong jobless-claims print lifts the dollar and drags price into the channel floor. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Ethereum (ETHUSD) | Bitstamp feed
Ethereum Analysis: Ether Holds 2,400 After Rebounding Off the Rising Trendline
2,410.8 −11.5 (−0.48%) on the daily candle at about 12:20 GMT Previous close 2,422.3
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips while 2,349 holds. Ether is up about 6% over 24 hours after bouncing from its rising trendline, and US Ether ETFs added $53 million on 4 November, snapping a seven-day outflow streak worth $657 million. The 2,506 average is the cap.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 2,300.0
- Support 1
- 2,348.8
- Resistance 1
- 2,433.8
- Resistance 2
- 2,506.3
- Price (2,410.8) is above the 2,361.8 and 2,348.8 averages and under the 2,506.3 average. Main catalyst: ETF inflows returning and risk appetite after the midterms.
- RSI 52.93 above its 37.38 average: the only one of the five above 50. A close above 2,506 targets the falling line near 2,590; a close under 2,348 puts the rising trendline at risk.
Setup: Long at 2,365, stop 2,295, targets 2,450, 2,506 and 2,590. Reward:risk 1.2 / 2.0 / 3.2, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 2,295, or if Bitcoin loses 76,985. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
XRP (XRPUSD) | Bitstamp feed
XRP Analysis: Price Sits Mid-Triangle Between Its Averages as Whale Buying Builds
1.3132 +0.0092 (+0.70%) on the daily candle at about 12:20 GMT Previous close 1.3041
Outlook: Bias is a range-bound bounce while 1.2941 holds. XRP is near 1.31 after clearing a short-term falling trendline, with whale balances rising and Ripple saying its US policy goals are unchanged after the midterms. The 1.3860 average is the cap.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.2500
- Support 1
- 1.2941
- Resistance 1
- 1.3360
- Resistance 2
- 1.3859
- Price (1.3132) is above the 1.31145 and 1.29413 averages and under the 1.38592 average. Main catalyst: whale accumulation, a Ripple and C2FO settlement initiative on the XRP Ledger.
- RSI 49.58 above its 40.94 average: neutral but improving. A close above 1.3860 would be the first higher high; a fall under 1.2941 targets 1.25 and the triangle floor.
Setup: Long at 1.2950, stop 1.2500, targets 1.3500, 1.3860 and 1.4300. Reward:risk 1.2 / 2.0 / 3.0, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 1.2500, or if the dollar rebounds after jobless claims. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Solana (SOLUSD) | Coinbase feed
Solana Analysis: Price Recovers the Broken Trendline but Stays Under All Three Averages
95.87 +0.35 (+0.37%) on the daily candle at about 12:20 GMT Previous close 95.52
Outlook: Bias is a counter-trend bounce that fades under 99. Solana wicked to about 88 and recovered above its rising trendline, but RSI is the weakest of the five; spot SOL ETFs recorded zero flows on 2 and 3 November after a record $143.7 million October outflow.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 87.20
- Support 1
- 89.70
- Resistance 1
- 98.96
- Resistance 2
- 108.52
- Price (95.87) is under the 98.96, 99.83 and 108.52 averages. Main catalyst: the post-midterm bounce against Binance-hack overhang; wallets linked to the hack held nearly one million SOL on 1 November, per Lookonchain.
- RSI 38.04 above its 33.83 average: weak but recovering from oversold. A close above 99.83 would break the cluster; a close under 89.70 puts the rising trendline and 87.20 in play.
Setup: Short at 99.50, stop 103.00, targets 95.00, 91.50 and 89.70. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.3 / 2.8, low conviction, counter-trend. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 103.00, or if ETF flows turn sharply positive. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
BNB (BNBUSD) | TradingView crypto feed
BNB Analysis: Price Rests on the Triangle Floor and Lags the Majors After the Binance Hack
712.79 −6.28 (−0.87%) on the daily candle at about 12:20 GMT Previous close 719.07
Outlook: Bias is neutral to lower while 724.49 caps. BNB is the weakest of the five today: Binance says 98% of assets hit by the 29 October hack have been replenished, but the token is down about 4% over seven days and sits just above its 704.30 average.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 681.40
- Support 1
- 704.30
- Resistance 1
- 724.49
- Resistance 2
- 747.31
- Price (712.79) is above the 704.30 average and under the 724.49 and 747.31 averages. Main catalyst: the Binance hack aftermath, with a 24-hour range of 681.40 to 722.78.
- RSI 45.01 level with its 44.84 average: no momentum either way. A close under 704.30 targets 681.40; a close above 747.31 would end the lower-high sequence.
Setup: Short at 724.00, stop 738.00, targets 706.00, 697.00 and 685.00. Reward:risk 1.3 / 1.9 / 2.8, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 738.00, or if Binance announces full replenishment and BNB breaks 747. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Conclusion
The dollar is at a one-month low and ETF flows have turned positive, so we prefer buying dips in Bitcoin near 78,800 and Ether near 2,365 (medium conviction) and XRP near 1.2950 (low conviction), and selling bounces in Solana near 99.50 and BNB near 724.00, both at low conviction. The session risks are US initial jobless claims at 13:30 GMT, the Wall Street open at 14:30 GMT and any Binance, hack or crypto-policy headline. A 4-hour close under 76,700 in Bitcoin or above 103.00 in Solana would change the picture.
Trade Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana and BNB with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the crypto outlook for today?
Bitcoin is holding 80,000 after a near-two-month low around 75,600, Ether is above 2,400 and the dollar is at a one-month low. US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT and the Wall Street open at 14:30 GMT are the main scheduled tests.
Which crypto trade ideas are live today?
Long Bitcoin, Ether and XRP on dips; short Solana and BNB on bounces, each with a stop and three targets valid until 21:00 GMT.
What time are the key events in GMT?
The Bank of England decision came at 12:00 GMT, US jobless claims are at 13:30 GMT, the Wall Street open is at 14:30 GMT, setups expire at 21:00 GMT and the crypto daily candle closes at 00:00 GMT.
Why is Bitcoin rebounding?
A $378 million short squeeze, spot ETF inflows of $74.6 million on 4 November and a weaker dollar after the Democratic midterm sweep lifted Bitcoin from about 75,600 back above 80,000.
Why is BNB lagging the market?
The 29 October Binance hack of about $6.34 billion is still a headline risk. Binance says 98% of the assets have been replenished, but BNB is down about 4% over seven days and sits just above its 704.30 average.
