Dollar Softens Into Midterm Eve: Euro Springs From a 17-Month Low to 1.1187, Yen Stalls at 157.82 and the 15:00 GMT ISM Decides What Breaks | Technical Analysis – forex report | 11 Nov 2026
Forex Today | Monday 2 November 2026 | Early London session
Dollar Softens Into Midterm Eve: Euro Springs From a 17-Month Low to 1.1187, Yen Stalls at 157.82 and the 15:00 GMT ISM Decides What Breaks
Market Overview
Six majors are coiled, and the 15:00 GMT ISM is the first catalyst big enough to break them. The dollar index has eased about 0.15% to 101.83 at 07:20 GMT as hopes for Iran diplomacy drain the safe-haven bid, with US midterm voting on Tuesday and Friday’s payrolls still to come. EUR/USD (1.11871, +0.27%) has sprung back toward 1.1200 from a 17-month low near 1.1159 after Fitch cut France’s outlook to negative, and Barclays expects the bounce to fade. GBP/USD (1.34044, +0.13%) is pressing triangle resistance ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England decision. USD/CHF (0.82318, −0.21%) is the weakest dollar pair, while USD/JPY (157.821, +0.16%) has recovered from Friday’s sub-157.00 low into the 157.8 to 158.34 resistance zone, where Finance Minister Katayama has again warned that Japan will act against disorderly moves. ING cautions against chasing dollar upside, and hedge funds, hurt by October losses, have little capacity to absorb election surprises, with Democrats widely expected to win the House and the Senate in doubt.
The scheduled risk is concentrated: the Eurozone and UK final manufacturing PMIs at 09:00 and 09:30 GMT (forecasts 52.4 and 52.8, both matching the flashes), the US S&P PMI at 14:45 GMT (56.0), the ISM at 15:00 GMT (54.7 against 54.5, prices paid 77.5), the London fix at 16:00 GMT and Goolsbee at 16:15 GMT. A firm ISM with sticky prices would revive Fed-hike bets and hit most of today’s ideas at once. AUD/USD (0.70184, −0.19%) waits below 0.7050 for the RBA at 03:30 GMT on Tuesday, where a 25 bp hike to 4.85% is about 80% priced, and USD/CAD (1.39844, +0.07%) is pulled both ways by a weekend Trump–Carney trade signal and Brent down about $2 on Doha talks. Daily RSI readings of 51.10, 49.97, 42.17, 58.10, 38.47 and 46.12 show no pair stretched. The desk plan: sell rallies in USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF and EUR/USD, and buy dips in AUD/USD and GBP/USD.
Key highlights
- USD/JPY: Price is 157.821 under the top of a symmetrical triangle near 158.0; 157.393 and 156.85 are the supports.
- AUD/USD: Price is 0.70184 inside a falling channel, above the 0.69957 fast average; the RBA at 03:30 GMT on Tuesday is the catalyst.
- EUR/USD: Price is 1.11871 just under the 1.1195 fast average and far below the 1.1378 and 1.1427 averages.
- GBP/USD: Price is 1.34044 above all three averages with RSI 58.10, the strongest of the six.
- USD/CAD: Price is 1.39844 under all three averages with RSI 38.47, the weakest of the six; 1.4033 caps rallies.
- USD/CHF: Price is 0.82318 on the 0.82212 medium average after a 0.21% drop as the dollar’s safe-haven bid fades.
What’s Moving Forex Today
Dollar slips into election eve as Iran-diplomacy hopes cool the safe-haven bid
The dollar index eased about 0.15% to 101.83, and the greenback is losing ground against all but the Aussie and Yen as the mood improves. ING warns against chasing dollar upside, hedge funds have little capacity to absorb surprises after October losses, and Democrats are widely expected to win the House while the Senate is in doubt.
Source: Market reports, 2 Nov 2026
Euro rebounds toward 1.12 from a 17-month low as Fitch’s France cut caps the upside
Fitch moved France to negative on Friday, taking EUR/USD to a low near 1.1159, but a softer dollar has lifted it toward 1.1200 in early Europe. Barclays expects the bounce to fade because eurozone growth trails the US, and the Eurozone final manufacturing PMI at 09:00 GMT is next.
Source: Investing.com, market reports, 30 Oct–2 Nov 2026
Yen steadies near 157.8 as Katayama says Japan will act against disorderly moves
USD/JPY bounced from Friday’s sub-157.00 post-BoJ low, with doubts over the timing of the next BoJ hike weighing on the yen. Finance Minister Katayama said the joint FX statement with the US stands, and analysts flag 157.80 and 158.34 as the resistance to clear.
Source: Tradingpedia, market reports, 2 Nov 2026
RBA is expected to hike to 4.85% at 03:30 GMT on Tuesday; Aussie bulls hesitate below 0.7050
Swaps price a 25 bp hike to a near two-decade high at about 80%. AUD/USD is near 0.7018–0.7033, up about 2% since mid-October on hot inflation, so guidance matters more than the decision itself.
Source: Market reports, 2 Nov 2026
Sterling steady near 1.34 ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England decision
GBP/USD traded at 1.3387–1.3394 in Asia after a 0.1% gain last week, and a hike is widely expected. UK final manufacturing PMI at 09:30 GMT (forecast 52.8) is today’s first test.
Source: Market reports, 2 Nov 2026
Trump says a Canada trade deal exists in concept; the loonie slips as oil falls
Trump and Carney spoke over the weekend and negotiators will work in coming weeks, but no details came out. Brent fell about $2 on Doha talks over reopening Hormuz, and the Canadian dollar lost ground in Asia.
Source: Market reports, 1–2 Nov 2026
Dollar slips about 0.2% against the franc as the safe-haven bid fades
Renewed optimism over Iran diplomacy keeps a lid on the safe-haven dollar, leaving USD/CHF the weakest of the six majors. The SNB has a record of leaning against sharp franc gains, which can stall moves.
Source: Market reports, 2 Nov 2026
US ISM manufacturing at 15:00 GMT is the day’s main US data point
Forecast is 54.7 against 54.5, with prices paid in focus at 77.5 against 77.9. Fed rate-hike expectations remain in play, so a firm print would revive dollar demand.
Source: Investing.com, market reports, 2 Nov 2026
Key Drivers for the Rest of Today
Six things that set direction for the rest of the session in USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF. All times are GMT.
- Eurozone final manufacturing PMI
- 09:00
- Mon 2 Nov, 09:00 GMT
- Forecast 52.4, in line with the flash (September 52.9); a miss adds to French-stress pressure on EUR/USD, a beat helps the 1.1195 fast-average test
- UK final manufacturing PMI
- 09:30
- Mon 2 Nov, 09:30 GMT
- Forecast 52.8, in line with the flash; a firm print supports GBP/USD dips near 1.3375 ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England decision
- US S&P Global manufacturing PMI (final)
- 14:45
- Mon 2 Nov, 14:45 GMT
- Forecast 56.0, matching the flash; it sets up the ISM release 15 minutes later
- US ISM manufacturing PMI, prices, employment
- 15:00
- Mon 2 Nov, 15:00 GMT
- Forecast 54.7 (prior 54.5); prices paid 77.5 (prior 77.9), employment 53.0 (prior 52.7). A hot print lifts USD/JPY and USD/CHF; a miss favours GBP/USD and AUD/USD
- London 16:00 GMT fix; Fed’s Goolsbee
- 16:00
- Mon 2 Nov, 16:00 GMT
- Fix flows can swing GBP/USD and EUR/USD; Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee speaks at 16:15 GMT, with Apple and Palantir earnings after the US close
- Daily close; RBA decision follows Tuesday
- 22:00
- Mon 2 Nov, 22:00 GMT
- Daily candles close at 22:00 GMT; the RBA decision follows at 03:30 GMT on Tuesday, with a 25 bp hike to 4.85% about 80% priced
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea (a daily close for GBP/USD).
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY (USDJPY) | Short | 158.20 | 159.00 | 157.40 | 156.85 | 1.0 / 1.7 | Medium |
| AUD/USD (AUDUSD) | Long | 0.7005 | 0.6960 | 0.7060 | 0.7100 | 1.2 / 2.1 | Medium |
| EUR/USD (EURUSD) | Short | 1.12125 | 1.1265 | 1.1150 | 1.1100 | 1.2 / 2.1 | Low |
| GBP/USD (GBPUSD) | Long | 1.3385 | 1.3305 | 1.3460 | 1.3530 | 0.9 / 1.8 | Low |
| USD/CAD (USDCAD) | Short | 1.4030 | 1.4100 | 1.3950 | 1.3900 | 1.1 / 1.9 | Low |
| USD/CHF (USDCHF) | Short | 0.8275 | 0.8335 | 0.8215 | 0.8155 | 1.0 / 2.0 | Low |
Entry is the average of each entry zone, and reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. A third target for each pair is in its section below. Prices are feed prices from the daily charts at about 07:16 GMT on 2 November. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a bounce or a pullback to trigger, and the 15:00 GMT ISM release can gap prices through them. Five of the six ideas are dollar-short and EUR/USD is the lone dollar-long, so a hot ISM print would hit most of them together. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
The ISM at 15:00 GMT, the US midterm build-up and the RBA at 03:30 GMT on Tuesday are the swing factors for the rest of today.
A strong ISM print and firm yields: the dollar rises and the majors test their lower supports
A reading above the 54.7 forecast, especially with prices paid near 77.5 or higher, would back Fed hike bets, lift USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF toward resistance and push EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD toward support.
- USD/JPY158.40, then 159.18
- AUD/USD0.6996, then 0.6960
- EUR/USD1.1150, then 1.1100
- GBP/USD1.3385, then 1.3305
- USD/CAD1.4033, then 1.4047
- USD/CHF0.8254, then 0.8278
A soft ISM print and a risk-off tone: the dollar eases and the majors recover toward resistance
A reading under 54.7 or weaker prices paid would ease yields, let EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD retest their averages and pull USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF back toward support.
- USD/JPY157.39, then 156.85
- AUD/USD0.7033, then 0.7064
- EUR/USD1.1195, then 1.1230
- GBP/USD1.3411, then 1.3460
- USD/CAD1.3963, then 1.3900
- USD/CHF0.8221, then 0.8155
USD/JPY (USDJPY) | FXCM feed
USD/JPY Analysis: Price Squeezes Under the Top of a Symmetrical Triangle at 157.82
157.821 +0.254 (+0.16%) at about 07:16 GMT Previous close 157.567
Outlook: Bias is lower while 158.00 to 158.40 caps rallies. USD/JPY has recovered from Friday’s sub-157.00 post-BoJ low to 157.82 as doubts over the next BoJ hike weigh on the yen, but Finance Minister Katayama says Japan will act against disorderly moves.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 156.85
- Support 1
- 157.393
- Resistance 1
- 157.991
- Resistance 2
- 159.175
- Price (157.821) sits above the 157.393 fast average and under the 157.903 medium and 159.175 slow averages. Main catalyst: BoJ hike-timing doubt, Katayama warning.
- RSI 51.10 above its 50.32 average: neutral. A close above 158.40 opens 159.175; a break under 157.393 targets 156.85.
Setup: Short at 158.20, stop 159.00, targets 157.40, 156.85 and 155.90. Reward:risk 1.0 / 1.7 / 2.9, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 159.00, or a firm ISM print at 15:00 GMT that lifts US yields. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
AUD/USD (AUDUSD) | OANDA feed
AUD/USD Analysis: Price Holds Inside a Falling Channel Ahead of the RBA at 03:30 GMT Tuesday
0.70184 −0.00134 (−0.19%) at about 07:16 GMT Previous close 0.70318
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips while 0.6996 holds. AUD/USD is near 0.7018 with a 25 bp RBA hike to 4.85% about 80% priced for 03:30 GMT on Tuesday, so the decision itself is largely in the price.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.69957
- Support 1
- 0.70148
- Resistance 1
- 0.70328
- Resistance 2
- 0.70638
- Price (0.70184) is above the 0.69957 fast average and under the 0.70328 medium and 0.70638 slow averages. Main catalyst: RBA decision 03:30 GMT Tuesday.
- RSI 49.97 above its 48.60 average: neutral. A close above 0.7064 breaks the channel top; a close under 0.6960 cancels the long.
Setup: Long at 0.7005, stop 0.6960, targets 0.7060, 0.7100 and 0.7180. Reward:risk 1.2 / 2.1 / 3.9, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close below 0.6960, or a risk-off slide that deepens the equity selloff. The RBA decision falls after the 21:00 GMT window, so consider trimming before the close.
EUR/USD (EURUSD) | FXCM feed
EUR/USD Analysis: Price Bounces Toward the Fast Average Inside a Falling Channel
1.11871 +0.00297 (+0.27%) at about 07:16 GMT Previous close 1.11574
Outlook: Bias is lower while 1.1195 caps rallies. EUR/USD is near 1.1187 after a low near 1.1159, a 17-month low, as Fitch’s cut of France’s outlook to negative weighs on the euro.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.1100
- Support 1
- 1.11503
- Resistance 1
- 1.1195
- Resistance 2
- 1.1230
- Price (1.11871) sits just under the 1.11950 fast average and far below the 1.13782 medium and 1.14265 slow averages. Main catalyst: Fitch France outlook, near 17-month low.
- RSI 42.17 above its 37.08 average: weak but recovering. A close above 1.1265 cancels the short; a break under 1.1150 targets 1.1100.
Setup: Short at 1.12125, stop 1.1265, targets 1.1150, 1.1100 and 1.1030. Reward:risk 1.2 / 2.1 / 3.5, low–medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 1.1265, or a soft ISM print that drags US yields and the dollar sharply lower. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
GBP/USD (GBPUSD) | FXCM feed
GBP/USD Analysis: Price Tests the Top of a Triangle Above All Three Averages
1.34044 +0.00175 (+0.13%) at about 07:16 GMT Previous close 1.33869
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips while 1.3385 holds. GBP/USD is near 1.3404, up for the session, with a Bank of England hike widely expected on Thursday and UK final manufacturing PMI at 09:30 GMT.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.33738
- Support 1
- 1.33852
- Resistance 1
- 1.34057
- Resistance 2
- 1.3460
- Price (1.34044) is above all three averages: 1.33852 slow, 1.33738 medium and 1.33086 fast. Main catalyst: BoE decision Thursday.
- RSI 58.10 above its 52.57 average: positive. A close above 1.3411 breaks the triangle top and targets 1.3460; a daily close under 1.3305 cancels the long.
Setup: Long at 1.3385, stop 1.3305, targets 1.3460, 1.3530 and 1.3600. Reward:risk 0.9 / 1.8 / 2.7, low–medium conviction. Cancel if a daily close below 1.3305, which would put price back under the fast average. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
USD/CAD (USDCAD) | OANDA feed
USD/CAD Analysis: Price Squeezes in a Triangle Under All Three Averages
1.39844 +0.00103 (+0.07%) at about 07:16 GMT Previous close 1.39741
Outlook: Bias is lower while 1.4033 caps rallies, but the loonie is slipping on lower oil. USD/CAD is near 1.3984 after a weekend Trump–Carney trade signal gave no details and Brent fell about $2 on Doha talks.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3900
- Support 1
- 1.39627
- Resistance 1
- 1.40333
- Resistance 2
- 1.4047
- Price (1.39844) is under the 1.40333 slow, 1.40470 medium and 1.41124 fast averages. Main catalyst: Oil lower, Trump–Carney trade talk.
- RSI 38.47 against a 43.62 average: weak. A close above 1.4100 cancels the short; a break under 1.3950 opens 1.3900.
Setup: Short at 1.4030, stop 1.4100, targets 1.3950, 1.3900 and 1.3830. Reward:risk 1.1 / 1.9 / 2.9, low–medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 1.4100, or a sharp oil drop that keeps unwinding loonie support. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
USD/CHF (USDCHF) | FXCM feed
USD/CHF Analysis: Price Slips Back to the Medium Average Inside a Rising Channel
0.82318 −0.00177 (−0.21%) at about 07:16 GMT Previous close 0.82495
Outlook: Bias is lower while 0.8278 caps rallies. USD/CHF is near 0.8232, down about 0.2%, as hopes for Iran diplomacy take the safe-haven bid out of the dollar.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.81526
- Support 1
- 0.82212
- Resistance 1
- 0.82536
- Resistance 2
- 0.82781
- Price (0.82318) is under the 0.82781 fast average, just above the 0.82212 medium and above the 0.81526 slow average. Main catalyst: Weaker dollar, Iran diplomacy.
- RSI 46.12 under its 50.03 average: weak. A close above 0.8335 cancels the short; a break under 0.8221 targets 0.8155.
Setup: Short at 0.8275, stop 0.8335, targets 0.8215, 0.8155 and 0.8100. Reward:risk 1.0 / 2.0 / 2.9, low–medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 0.8335, or a daily close back above the fast average with RSI over 50. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Conclusion
The dollar is range-bound into the midterms, so we prefer selling bounces in USD/JPY near 158.20, USD/CAD near 1.4030 and USD/CHF near 0.8275, all of which sit under their fast or slow averages, and fading EUR/USD near 1.1212 at low conviction. AUD/USD near 0.7005 and GBP/USD near 1.3385 are dip-buys above their averages, with the RBA decision at 03:30 GMT on Tuesday falling after today’s window. The session risks are the Eurozone and UK PMIs at 09:00 and 09:30 GMT, the US S&P PMI at 14:45 GMT, the ISM at 15:00 GMT and the London fix at 16:00 GMT. A 4-hour close over 159.00 in USD/JPY or under 0.6960 in AUD/USD would change the picture.
Trade USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the forex outlook for today?
Range-bound with a cautious dollar bias. Traders wait for Tuesday’s US midterms, and the 15:00 GMT ISM manufacturing PMI is the main scheduled test.
Which forex trade ideas are live today?
Short USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF and EUR/USD on rallies; long AUD/USD and GBP/USD on dips, each with a stop and three targets.
What time are the key events in GMT?
Eurozone PMI at 09:00 GMT, UK PMI at 09:30 GMT, US S&P PMI at 14:45 GMT, ISM at 15:00 GMT, the London fix at 16:00 GMT, Goolsbee at 16:15 GMT and the daily close at 22:00 GMT.
Why is EUR/USD under pressure?
Fitch cut France’s outlook to negative after Friday’s close, and the euro is near a 17-month low around 1.1159.
Why does AUD/USD lean higher today?
The RBA is expected to hike to 4.85% at 03:30 GMT on Tuesday and the Aussie has risen about 2% since mid-October, but price is still inside its falling channel.
