Dollar Bleeds Into the London Open as Friday’s Payrolls Rally Fades, USDJPY Pins 158, and Fed Speakers Hit at 13:40 GMT | Technical Analysis – Forex Report | 09 Nov 2026
LIVE Forex | Monday 9 November 2026 | 07:32 GMT snapshot, 28 minutes before the London open | Sentix 09:30 GMT, Fed speakers from 13:40 GMT, Bailey 17:30 GMT
Dollar Bleeds Into the London Open as Friday’s Payrolls Rally Fades, USDJPY Pins 158, and Fed Speakers Hit at 13:40 GMT
Market Overview
The dollar is losing its grip right now: all six pairs in this report are moving against it, and the index is clinging to the 102.00 line, after Friday’s payrolls shock gave it its biggest one-day gain in five months. October payrolls printed 165,000 against about 62,000 expected, unemployment dropped to 4.1%, and a December Fed hike is priced near 80%, yet profit-taking and a violent risk rebound are draining the move. The Nikkei rallied about 3.3% and Taiex 5.6% in Asia after last week’s AI-led rout. At 07:32 GMT, GBPUSD (1.33882, +0.34%) leads, then EURUSD (1.11669, +0.28%) and AUDUSD (0.68856, +0.27%), while USDCAD (1.40990, −0.22%), USDJPY (158.074, −0.25%) and USDCHF (0.81853, −0.18%) slip.
The next 6 hours decide whether Friday’s breakout holds or fails. Sentix is due at 09:30 GMT, Bowman is due to speak at 13:40 GMT and Goolsbee at 15:00 GMT, and BoE Governor Bailey follows at 17:30 GMT. Brent is near $98 as Trump calls new Iran strikes highly unlikely while Rubio calls the talks unproductive, so oil headlines can flip the dollar in minutes. Japan has now confirmed three summer interventions, so USDJPY’s 158.50 ceiling and the 160 line are live risks. AUDUSD is the weakest chart (RSI 36.30, under all three averages), USDCAD is defending Friday’s breakout after Canada lost 4,700 jobs, and RSI readings of 51.66, 36.30, 42.39, 52.95, 53.93 and 43.13 show no pair stretched. Desk plan: buy dips in USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD and USDCHF, sell bounces in AUDUSD and EURUSD. This is a 07:32 GMT snapshot and the London session has not yet opened.
Key highlights
- USDJPY: Price is 158.074 above the 157.932 average, under the falling triangle line near 158.50; 159.04 caps and 157.27 is the floor.
- AUDUSD: Price is 0.68856 under all three averages with RSI 36.30; 0.6950 to 0.6985 is the sell zone.
- EURUSD: Price is 1.11669 under the 1.11912 average inside a falling channel; 1.1250 caps.
- GBPUSD: Price is 1.33882 on the 1.33919 average after bouncing off the rising line; 1.3357 supports.
- USDCAD: Price is 1.40990 above the 1.4044 to 1.4063 averages after Friday’s breakout; 1.4020 is the line.
- USDCHF: Price is 0.81853 on the channel floor above the 0.81603 average; 0.8110 is the line.
What’s Moving Forex Today
The dollar gives back part of Friday’s payrolls rally, but a December Fed hike is still priced near 80%
US employers added 165,000 jobs in October against about 62,000 expected, unemployment fell to 4.1%, and September was revised up to 60,000. The dollar index posted its biggest one-day gain in five months on Friday and was near 102.2 in early Asia, but every pair in this report is moving against the dollar this morning as traders take profits. LSEG puts the odds of a quarter-point hike at the 8–9 December meeting near 80%.
Source: FXStreet, Reuters via Investing.com, CNBC, LSEG via KuCoin, 9 Nov 2026
Asia bought the dip after last week’s AI-led rout: Nikkei rallied 3.3% to about 59,300, Taiex 5.6%, and S&P 500 futures are higher
Chipmakers recovered after the worst week for Asian tech in years, even as reports of an investigation into Nvidia’s chief executive and Democratic wins in both chambers of Congress keep AI-buildout worries alive. The firmer risk tone lifts AUD and trims demand for the yen and franc as havens.
Source: investingLive, Reuters via Investing.com, AP, Alliance News, 9 Nov 2026
Trump says new strikes on Iran are highly unlikely while talks progress, but Rubio calls the talks unproductive
Brent fell to about $97.5–98.7 early on the President’s CNN comments and then recovered on Rubio’s remarks, while Qatar says the talks are alive and Trump meets Qatar’s prime minister today. WTI is near $90. Lower oil weighs on the loonie and eases the energy-import drag on the yen, and headline swings can reverse quickly.
Source: Reuters via Investing.com, Alliance News, investingLive, 9 Nov 2026
USDJPY holds near 158.1–158.3 as BoJ signals support the yen and Tokyo’s intervention record keeps traders wary near 160
The BoJ’s minutes and Summary of Opinions point to readiness to tighten if needed, and Governor Ueda sees inflation near 2% with upside risks from energy costs. Japan spent a record $50 billion in one day on 30 July, part of about $97 billion across July and August that included a joint operation with the US, so the 160 area remains the line traders watch.
Source: FXStreet, investingLive, Tradingpedia, 9 Nov 2026
Aussie bounces to about 0.6890 from its lowest since late March, with China producer prices at their highest since 2022
China’s October producer prices rose 5.7% on the year against 5.3% expected, while consumer prices slowed to 0.7%. The RBA raised its cash rate to 4.85% on 3 November in a 6–3 vote, yet AUDUSD still fell hard on Friday as the equity rout hit risk currencies.
Source: investingLive, ActionForex, TPFx, SBS, 9 Nov 2026
Loonie struggles after Canada lost 4,700 jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7%
Economists had expected a gain of about 13,600 jobs. The Canadian dollar fell 0.7% on Friday, heading for its worst week since September, and USDCAD broke above 1.41 as the US payrolls beat forecasts. The Bank of Canada’s first hike in over three years came on 28 October, and the weak jobs data cuts the case for much further tightening.
Source: CBC, BNN Bloomberg, Qz, FXStreet, 9 Nov 2026
Sterling firms to 1.3388 on the BoE’s 4.00% hike; Governor Bailey speaks at 17:30 GMT
The Bank of England raised rates 25 bp on 5 November with eight members in favour and one wanting 50 bp, its first hike in more than three years. Markets price three more hikes by the end of next year, and Bailey tied future decisions to energy prices and said lower oil would influence his outlook.
Source: Tradingpedia, FXStreet, ExchangeRates.org.uk, 9 Nov 2026
Euro edges up on ECB hike talk and Sentix is due at 09:30 GMT; the franc firms against the dollar even as haven demand fades
Euro-area inflation reached 4.0% in October, a three-year high, and ECB policymakers have kept a December hike on the table. EURUSD traded near 1.1164 early against 1.1149 late Friday and remains below the 100-day average near 1.14. USDCHF is lower on the day at 0.8185 but sits on its rising-channel floor.
Source: FXStreet, Alliance News, ING via FXStreet, 9 Nov 2026
Key Drivers for the Rest of Today
Six things that set direction for the rest of the session in USDJPY, AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and USDCHF. All times are GMT.
- London cash open
- 08:00
- Mon 9 Nov, 08:00 GMT
- Sets the European tone after the Asian equity rebound; EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCHF react first. The 07:32 GMT snapshot is 28 minutes before the open
- Eurozone Sentix (Nov)
- 09:30
- Mon 9 Nov, 09:30 GMT
- Forecast 2.1 against 2.7 prior; a miss tests the euro’s ECB-hike support near 1.1135
- Fed speakers
- 13:40
- Mon 9 Nov, 13:40 and 15:00 GMT
- Bowman at 13:40 and Goolsbee at 15:00 react to the payrolls beat; hawkish tones back the near-80% December hike price and lift USDJPY, USDCAD and USDCHF
- US data
- 15:00
- Mon 9 Nov, 15:00 and 16:00 GMT
- Wholesale inventories (forecast 0.6%) at 15:00; NY Fed consumer inflation expectations (3.8% forecast, 3.9% prior) at 16:00
- BoE Governor Bailey
- 17:30
- Mon 9 Nov, 17:30 GMT
- Any hint on the pace after the 4.00% hike moves GBPUSD; hawkish talk backs the 1.3450 target
- Setup expiry and daily close
- 21:00
- Mon 9 Nov, 21:00 and 22:00 GMT
- Unfilled ideas lapse at 21:00 GMT; FX daily candles close at 22:00 GMT
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order USDJPY, AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and USDCHF, valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY (USDJPY) | Long | 157.70 | 157.10 | 158.50 | 159.04 | 1.3 / 2.2 | Medium |
| AUD/USD (AUDUSD) | Short | 0.6940 | 0.6985 | 0.6885 | 0.6840 | 1.2 / 2.2 | Medium |
| EUR/USD (EURUSD) | Short | 1.1210 | 1.1265 | 1.1140 | 1.1100 | 1.3 / 2.0 | Low |
| GBP/USD (GBPUSD) | Long | 1.3360 | 1.3315 | 1.3420 | 1.3450 | 1.3 / 2.0 | Medium |
| USD/CAD (USDCAD) | Long | 1.4065 | 1.4020 | 1.4130 | 1.4200 | 1.4 / 3.0 | Medium |
| USD/CHF (USDCHF) | Long | 0.8165 | 0.8120 | 0.8210 | 0.8233 | 1.0 / 1.5 | Low |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. A third target for each pair is in its section below. Prices are chart-feed prices from the daily charts at about 07:32 GMT on 9 November. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger, and the Fed speakers at 13:40 and 15:00 GMT can gap prices through them. Four ideas are long and two are short, but five of the six are effectively dollar-long (USDJPY, USDCAD and USDCHF long; AUDUSD and EURUSD short), so a dollar slide would hit most of them at once. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
Fed speakers from 13:40 GMT, Bailey at 17:30 GMT and Iran headlines are the swing factors for the rest of today.
If Fed speakers sound hawkish, yields rise and the dollar retakes its Friday gains
Bowman and Goolsbee backing a December hike after the payrolls beat would push Treasury yields back up and revive dollar demand. USDJPY, USDCAD and USDCHF would extend, while AUDUSD, EURUSD and GBPUSD fall back toward Friday’s lows.
- USDJPY158.50, then 159.04
- AUDUSD0.6856, then 0.6800
- EURUSD1.1135, then 1.1070
- GBPUSD1.3357, then 1.3300
- USDCAD1.4130, then 1.4200
- USDCHF0.8210, then 0.8233
If the equity rebound extends, the dollar loses more ground
A steadier Nasdaq, easing Iran headlines and cautious Fed tones would deepen the dollar’s retreat from Friday’s peak. AUDUSD, EURUSD and GBPUSD would test their overhead averages, while USDJPY, USDCAD and USDCHF slip back to support.
- USDJPY157.93, then 157.27
- AUDUSD0.6950, then 0.6985
- EURUSD1.1191, then 1.1250
- GBPUSD1.3450, then 1.3500
- USDCAD1.4063, then 1.4044
- USDCHF0.8160, then 0.8110
USD/JPY (USDJPY) | FXCM feed
USDJPY Analysis: Price Presses the Triangle Ceiling Near 158.50 as BoJ Signals and Intervention Memory Cap the Dollar
158.074 −0.395 (−0.25%) on the daily candle at about 07:32 GMT Previous close 158.469
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips while 157.27 holds. USDJPY is pinned between the 157.932 average and the falling triangle line near 158.50, with the dollar softer on the day and the yen helped by BoJ commentary. Friday’s payrolls beat and a near-80% December Fed hike price keep dips shallow, while Tokyo’s record intervention in July limits chases toward 160.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 156.30
- Support 1
- 157.27
- Resistance 1
- 158.50
- Resistance 2
- 159.04
- Price (158.074) is above the 157.932 and 157.268 averages and under the 159.037 average. Main catalysts: Fed speakers from 13:40 GMT driving Treasury yields, and any Japanese comment on yen moves after the record intervention in July.
- RSI 51.66 against its 50.44 average: neutral momentum. A close above 158.50 targets 159.04; a close under 157.27 breaks the triangle floor and puts 156.30 in play.
Setup: Long at 157.70, stop 157.10, targets 158.50, 159.04 and 159.60. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.2 / 3.2, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 157.10, or if a Tokyo warning drives USDJPY through 157.27. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
AUD/USD (AUDUSD) | OANDA feed
AUDUSD Analysis: Aussie Bounces From a Seven-Month Low Inside a Falling Channel, but 0.6985 Still Caps
0.68856 +0.00188 (+0.27%) on the daily candle at about 07:32 GMT Previous close 0.68668
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces while 0.6985 caps. AUDUSD is up 0.27% as Asia’s equity rebound and hot China producer prices helped, but the pair is still under all three averages with RSI at 36.30, after Friday’s slide to its lowest since late March. The RBA’s 4.85% cash rate has not stopped the slide.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.6800
- Support 1
- 0.6856
- Resistance 1
- 0.6950
- Resistance 2
- 0.6985
- Price (0.68856) is under the 0.69851, 0.70280 and 0.70393 averages. Main catalysts: risk tone and US yields. China’s October producer prices rose 5.7% on the year against 5.3% forecast, while consumer prices slowed to 0.7%.
- RSI 36.30 under its 47.74 average: the weakest momentum of the six pairs and the nearest to oversold. A close under 0.6856 targets the 0.6800 channel floor; a 4-hour close above 0.6985 ends the bearish case.
Setup: Short at 0.6940, stop 0.6985, targets 0.6885, 0.6840 and 0.6800. Reward:risk 1.2 / 2.2 / 3.1, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 0.6985, or if the Fed speakers sound dovish and the risk rally extends. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
EUR/USD (EURUSD) | FXCM feed
EURUSD Analysis: Euro Edges Up Inside a Falling Channel, With the 1.1191 Average Capping and 1.1135 Holding
1.11669 +0.00309 (+0.28%) on the daily candle at about 07:32 GMT Previous close 1.11360
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces while 1.1265 caps, but conviction is low. EURUSD is up 0.28% on a softer dollar and ECB hike talk after euro-area inflation reached 4.0%, yet it trades under the 1.1191 average inside a channel that has run since August. Sentix at 09:30 GMT is the first test.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.1070
- Support 1
- 1.1135
- Resistance 1
- 1.1191
- Resistance 2
- 1.1250
- Price (1.11669) is under the 1.11912, 1.13335 and 1.14113 averages. Main catalysts: Sentix at 09:30 GMT, ECB commentary on a December hike, and Fed speakers from 13:40 GMT.
- RSI 42.39 above its 39.65 average: momentum is improving but still under 50. A close under 1.1135 targets the channel floor near 1.1070; a close above 1.1250 breaks the short case.
Setup: Short at 1.1210, stop 1.1265, targets 1.1140, 1.1100 and 1.1060. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.0 / 2.7, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 1.1265, or if Sentix and ECB comments drive a squeeze through 1.1250. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
GBP/USD (GBPUSD) | FXCM feed
GBPUSD Analysis: Sterling Rebounds From the Rising Line and Tests the 1.3392 Average Ahead of Bailey at 17:30 GMT
1.33882 +0.00457 (+0.34%) on the daily candle at about 07:32 GMT Previous close 1.33425
Outlook: Bias is a bounce while 1.3315 holds. GBPUSD is up 0.34%, the strongest of the six, as the Bank of England’s 4.00% hike and pricing for three more hikes support sterling against a softer dollar. The pair sits on the 1.33919 average, and Governor Bailey’s remarks at 17:30 GMT are the session’s main UK event.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3300
- Support 1
- 1.3357
- Resistance 1
- 1.3450
- Resistance 2
- 1.3500
- Price (1.33882) is level with the 1.33919 average and above the 1.33568 and 1.33545 averages. Main catalysts: Bailey at 17:30 GMT, Fed speakers from 13:40 GMT and dollar direction.
- RSI 52.95 under its 55.52 average: flat momentum. A close above 1.3392 targets 1.3450; a close under 1.3355 loses the rising line and opens 1.3300.
Setup: Long at 1.3360, stop 1.3315, targets 1.3420, 1.3450 and 1.3500. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.0 / 3.1, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 1.3315, or if Bailey signals a pause and sterling sells off. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
USD/CAD (USDCAD) | OANDA feed
USDCAD Analysis: Price Holds Above the Broken Falling Line After Canada’s Jobs Miss, With Oil Slipping Back
1.40990 −0.00316 (−0.22%) on the daily candle at about 07:32 GMT Previous close 1.41306
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips while 1.4020 holds. USDCAD is down 0.22% as the dollar eases, but it keeps Friday’s breakout above the falling line and sits above all three averages after Canada lost 4,700 jobs and unemployment rose to 6.7%. WTI near $90 offers the loonie little help.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.4020
- Support 1
- 1.4063
- Resistance 1
- 1.4130
- Resistance 2
- 1.4200
- Price (1.40990) is above the 1.40628, 1.40513 and 1.40439 averages. Main catalysts: dollar direction, oil, and Fed speakers from 13:40 GMT. The Bank of Canada’s 28 October hike is the backdrop, but Friday’s jobs data weakened the case for more.
- RSI 53.93 against its 42.22 average: momentum is turning up. A close above 1.4130 targets 1.4200; a close under 1.4044 returns price to the old pattern and points to 1.4000.
Setup: Long at 1.4065, stop 1.4020, targets 1.4130, 1.4200 and 1.4250. Reward:risk 1.4 / 3.0 / 4.1, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 1.4020, or if oil rallies hard and the loonie rebounds. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
USD/CHF (USDCHF) | FXCM feed
USDCHF Analysis: Price Rests on the Channel Floor and the 0.8160 Average While the Dollar Eases
0.81853 −0.00145 (−0.18%) on the daily candle at about 07:32 GMT Previous close 0.81998
Outlook: Bias is a bounce from support while 0.8120 holds. USDCHF is down 0.18% as the dollar softens, but it has held the rising-channel floor and the 0.81603 average through the Fed repricing, and the 0.82332 and 0.82419 averages cap any bounce.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.8110
- Support 1
- 0.8160
- Resistance 1
- 0.8210
- Resistance 2
- 0.8233
- Price (0.81853) is above the 0.81603 average and under the 0.82332 and 0.82419 averages. Main catalysts: Fed speakers from 13:40 GMT, Treasury yields and the pace of the equity rebound, which reduces haven demand for the franc.
- RSI 43.13 under its 46.22 average: soft momentum. A close under 0.8110 breaks the channel floor and targets 0.8080; a close above 0.8233 would end the downtrend from October.
Setup: Long at 0.8165, stop 0.8120, targets 0.8210, 0.8233 and 0.8265. Reward:risk 1.0 / 1.5 / 2.2, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 0.8120, or if risk sentiment turns and the franc is bid again. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Conclusion
The dollar is easing from Friday’s peak while a December Fed hike is still priced near 80%, so we prefer buying dips in USDJPY near 157.70, GBPUSD near 1.3360 and USDCAD near 1.4065 (medium conviction) and USDCHF near 0.8165 (low), and selling bounces in AUDUSD near 0.6940 (medium) and EURUSD near 1.1210 (low). The session risks are Sentix at 09:30 GMT, Fed speakers at 13:40 and 15:00 GMT, Bailey at 17:30 GMT and any Iran headline that moves oil. A 4-hour close under 157.10 in USDJPY or above 0.6985 in AUDUSD would change the picture.
Trade USDJPY, AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and USDCHF with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the forex outlook for today?
The dollar is easing against all six pairs in this report after Friday’s payrolls-led rally, while Asian equities rebound. Fed speakers from 13:40 GMT, Sentix at 09:30 GMT and BoE Governor Bailey at 17:30 GMT are the main scheduled tests for USDJPY, AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and USDCHF.
Which forex trade ideas are live today?
Long USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCAD and USDCHF on dips; short AUDUSD and EURUSD on bounces, each with a stop and three targets valid until 21:00 GMT.
What time are the key events in GMT?
London opens at 08:00 GMT, Sentix is at 09:30 GMT, Bowman speaks at 13:40 GMT, Goolsbee at 15:00 GMT, NY Fed inflation expectations are at 16:00 GMT, Bailey speaks at 17:30 GMT, setups expire at 21:00 GMT and the daily candle closes at 22:00 GMT.
Why is AUDUSD still the weakest chart today?
It remains under all three moving averages with RSI at 36.30, after Friday’s equity rout pushed it to its lowest since late March. Today’s 0.27% bounce has not changed the falling channel.
Why is USDCAD holding above the broken falling line?
Canada lost 4,700 jobs in October and unemployment rose to 6.7% on Friday, the same day the US payrolls beat lifted the dollar. USDCAD cleared its three averages on that move and is pulling back toward them today.
