Fed Half-Point Fear Pins the Dollar at a 19-Month High: Aussie Cracks 0.68, Kiwi Bleeds Toward 0.55 and Sterling Sags to 1.3227 Before US PPI | Technical Analysis – Forex Report | 13 Nov 2026
LIVE Forex | Friday 13 November 2026
Fed Half-Point Fear Pins the Dollar at a 19-Month High: Aussie Cracks 0.68, Kiwi Bleeds Toward 0.55 and Sterling Sags to 1.3227 Before US PPI
Market Overview
The dollar is squeezing every rival at once: the index is pinned at 103.17, a 19-month high, and US PPI at 13:30 GMT can either lock in a half-point Fed hike or break the rally. Two-year Treasury yields have jumped 34 basis points in two sessions, the sharpest surge in 3.5 years, and the odds of a 50 basis point December hike have gone from 0% to 14.5% in days. At the 05:25 GMT chart capture, NZD/USD was at 0.55412 (−0.10%), AUD/USD at 0.67994 (−0.13%, a 10-month low), EUR/CHF at 0.92394 (+0.03%), GBP/USD at 1.32272 (−0.05%), USD/CAD at 1.42610 (+0.03%) and USD/CHF at 0.83539 (+0.02%).
The Aussie is the market’s weakest G10 currency, the Kiwi is following it down, and sterling has already snapped its rising trendline. AUD/USD is sitting on its channel floor near 0.6775 with RSI at 31.66, while USD/CAD (RSI 67.34) and USD/CHF (63.00) are breaking higher. Every catalyst is stacked into the next 12 hours: Eurozone GDP at 10:00 GMT, US PPI at 13:30, Bowman at 15:50 and Daly at 17:00 GMT. Desk plan: sell bounces in NZD/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD, buy dips in USD/CAD and USD/CHF, and buy a pullback in EUR/CHF with low conviction. London and New York have not opened and PPI has not printed yet.
Key highlights
- NZD/USD: Price 0.55412 is under all three averages with RSI 37.93; 0.5580 caps and 0.5495 supports.
- AUD/USD: Price 0.67994 is at the channel floor with RSI 31.66; 0.6850 caps and 0.6775 supports.
- EUR/CHF: Price 0.92394 has broken the falling channel; 0.9320 caps and 0.9215 holds.
- GBP/USD: Price 1.32272 is under the broken trendline; 1.3300 caps and 1.3200 supports.
- USD/CAD: Price 1.42610 is above the triangle with RSI 67.34; 1.4300 caps and 1.4200 holds.
- USD/CHF: Price 0.83539 is above all three averages; 0.8395 caps and 0.8300 holds.
What’s Moving Forex Today
The dollar index holds near 103.17, a 19-month high, as traders price a bigger Fed hike
The index was last down 0.05% at 103.17, its highest since April 2025. Two-year Treasury yields gained 34 basis points over the past two sessions, the sharpest two-day rise in 3.5 years, and CME FedWatch shows a 14.5% chance of a 50 basis point hike next month, up from 0% before the CPI print.
Source: Reuters via Business Recorder and AOL, 13 Nov 2026
Fed officials are talking up tightening, with Williams saying inflation is still too elevated, and US PPI is due at 13:30 GMT
Fed officials have signalled openness to a 50 basis point move if price pressures fail to ease, and Williams said inflation remains too elevated. October PPI is forecast at +0.4% on the month (previous +1.3%) and core at +0.3%, and Bowman speaks at 15:50 GMT and Daly at 17:00 GMT. The 10-year yield sits near 5.13%.
Source: Reuters, FXStreet, investingLive, Investing.com calendar, 13 Nov 2026
Geopolitics and tech weakness add noise: Houthi attacks, Hormuz tankers and Nvidia’s CEO exit
Trump said the US does not need a deal with Iran, US crude closed 2.55% higher on Thursday after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and four tankers were struck near Hormuz, and Nvidia’s CEO plans to step down. CBA’s Carol Kong said a deeper equity sell-off would be a dollar negative.
Source: Reuters via Business Recorder, FXStreet, 13 Nov 2026
AUD/USD slipped under 0.6800 to a 10-month low and NZD/USD is sinking near 0.5540
The Aussie has fallen about 2.5% in a month, the worst in the G10, and Australian 10-year bonds have lost their yield advantage over Treasuries. The RBA is on hold at 4.85%, UBS sees no cuts before late 2027, and Australian inflation expectations held at 5.3%. The Kiwi is following the Aussie lower.
Source: Reuters, FXStreet, investingLive, 13 Nov 2026
Sterling extends a three-day slide near 1.3225 even after in-line UK GDP
UK Q3 GDP grew 0.7%, as expected and the fastest in two and a half years, September rose 0.2% and August was revised to zero, keeping a Bank of England December hike in play. Cable still fell about 0.4% on Thursday as the dollar rally dominated.
Source: FXStreet, The Guardian via AOL, investingLive, 13 Nov 2026
USD/CAD holds near 1.4260 as dollar strength outweighs higher oil
The pair is near its highest since mid-October. Canadian manufacturing sales (consensus +0.2%) and wholesale sales (+0.4%) are due at 13:30 GMT, alongside US PPI.
Source: Reuters, FXStreet, ActionForex, 13 Nov 2026
USD/CHF holds near a one-month high at about 0.835 as the SNB stays at 0%
Reuters reported the dollar steady against the franc near 0.835. The SNB held at 0% in September and has pointed to widening rate differentials as a driver of franc weakness, while Fed hike pricing extends that gap.
Source: Reuters, FXStreet, Trading Economics, 13 Nov 2026
EUR/USD near $1.1049, its lowest since April 2025, while EUR/CHF steadies above 0.9239 ahead of Eurozone GDP
The euro is heading for its largest loss against the dollar since late September. A December ECB hike is expected to be the last of the cycle, and Eurozone Q3 GDP and the trade balance are due at 10:00 GMT, with ECB speakers Schnabel and Simkus also scheduled.
Source: Reuters via Business Recorder, FXStreet, ActionForex, 13 Nov 2026
Key Drivers for the Rest of Today
Six things that set direction for the rest of the session in NZD/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF. All times are GMT.
- London open
- 08:00
- Fri 13 Nov, 08:00 GMT
- First test of the Asian moves in AUD/USD and NZD/USD, with the dollar index at 103.17
- Eurozone GDP and trade
- 10:00
- Fri 13 Nov, 10:00 GMT
- Q3 GDP preliminary +0.4% expected; the key test for EUR/CHF, with ECB speakers also on the day
- US PPI, Canada sales
- 13:30
- Fri 13 Nov, 13:30 GMT
- PPI +0.4% and core +0.3% expected against 1.3% and 0.7%; Canadian manufacturing +0.2% and wholesale +0.4%
- Bowman speaks
- 15:50
- Fri 13 Nov, 15:50 GMT
- Fed Vice Chair for Supervision; any backing for 50 basis points lifts the dollar
- Daly speaks
- 17:00
- Fri 13 Nov, 17:00 GMT
- San Francisco Fed president follows Williams’ “inflation too elevated” message
- Setup expiry and daily close
- 21:00
- Fri 13 Nov, 21:00 and 22:00 GMT
- Unfilled ideas lapse at 21:00 GMT and daily candles close at 22:00 GMT
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order NZD/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | Short | 0.5575 | 0.5610 | 0.5530 | 0.5495 | 1.3 / 2.3 | Medium |
| AUD/USD | Short | 0.6840 | 0.6880 | 0.6790 | 0.6760 | 1.3 / 2.0 | Medium |
| EUR/CHF | Long | 0.9225 | 0.9185 | 0.9290 | 0.9320 | 1.6 / 2.4 | Low |
| GBP/USD | Short | 1.3290 | 1.3340 | 1.3220 | 1.3180 | 1.4 / 2.2 | Medium |
| USD/CAD | Long | 1.4210 | 1.4150 | 1.4300 | 1.4350 | 1.5 / 2.3 | Medium |
| USD/CHF | Long | 0.8315 | 0.8265 | 0.8395 | 0.8430 | 1.6 / 2.3 | Medium |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. A third target for each pair is in its section below. Levels come from the daily charts captured at 05:25 GMT on the FXCM (GBP/USD, USD/CHF) and OANDA (NZD/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/CHF, USD/CAD) feeds. Every entry sits away from the current price and needs a pullback or a bounce to trigger, and US PPI at 13:30 GMT can gap prices through them. Five ideas lean on dollar strength (short NZD/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD, long USD/CAD and USD/CHF) and EUR/CHF is a cross, so a hawkish Fed surprise would help five and a soft PPI print would hurt them. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
US PPI at 13:30 GMT and the Bowman and Daly speeches are the swing factors for the rest of today.
If PPI runs hot or Fed speakers back 50 basis points, yields rise and the dollar extends its run
A hot PPI print and hawkish talk from Bowman or Daly would lift Fed hike pricing and the 10-year yield above 5.13%. AUD, NZD and GBP would slide toward their supports, while USD/CAD and USD/CHF would test their highs.
- NZD/USD0.5495, then 0.5440
- AUD/USD0.6775, then 0.6740
- EUR/CHF0.9215, then 0.9185
- GBP/USD1.3200, then 1.3140
- USD/CAD1.4300, then 1.4350
- USD/CHF0.8395, then 0.8450
If PPI undershoots or equities sell off sharply, the dollar gives back part of its rally
A soft PPI print or a risk-off equity move after Nvidia’s CEO exit would trim Fed hike odds and pull the index off its 19-month high. AUD, NZD and GBP would bounce into overhead resistance, and USD/CAD and USD/CHF would retest their averages.
- NZD/USD0.5580, then 0.5627
- AUD/USD0.6850, then 0.6900
- EUR/CHF0.9290, then 0.9320
- GBP/USD1.3300, then 1.3340
- USD/CAD1.4200, then 1.4085
- USD/CHF0.8300, then 0.8250
NZD/USD | Investing.com quote, OANDA chart feed
NZD/USD Analysis: Kiwi Slides Toward the Channel Floor as the Dollar Holds a 19-Month High and the Aussie Leads Antipodean Weakness
0.55412 −0.00055 (−0.10%) on the OANDA feed Previous close 0.55467 | Range 0.55382 to 0.55550 | investingLive near 0.5540 at 04:26 GMT
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces with medium conviction. The Kiwi is falling with the Aussie as Fed hike bets lift the dollar and the Australian and New Zealand yield advantage over Treasuries shrinks. There is no New Zealand data today, so US PPI at 13:30 GMT and the Fed speakers set direction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.5440
- Support 1
- 0.5495
- Resistance 1
- 0.5580
- Resistance 2
- 0.5627
- Price (0.55412) is under all three averages (0.5627, 0.5663 and 0.5750) and about 100 pips above the channel floor. Main catalysts: US PPI at 13:30 GMT, Bowman at 15:50 and Daly at 17:00 GMT, and Australian dollar direction.
- RSI 37.93 under its 41.34 average: momentum is bearish but not oversold, so rallies are likely to meet sellers. A close under 0.5495 targets 0.5440; a close above 0.5627 breaks the near-term downtrend.
Setup: Short at 0.5575, stop 0.5610, targets 0.5530, 0.5495 and 0.5440. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.3 / 3.9, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 0.5610, or if US PPI undershoots and Treasury yields fall. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
AUD/USD | Investing.com quote, OANDA chart feed
AUD/USD Analysis: Aussie Has Broken 0.68 to a 10-Month Low as the RBA Pauses and the Fed Leans Toward a Bigger Hike
0.67994 −0.00090 (−0.13%) on the OANDA feed Previous close 0.68084 | Range 0.67974 to 0.68150 | Trading Economics 0.6808 and Reuters “$0.68 in early trading”
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces with medium conviction. The Aussie has lost about 2.5% in a month, the worst in the G10 and the only one where rate cuts are priced for next year, while the RBA sits on hold at 4.85% and UBS sees no cuts before late 2027. Australian inflation expectations at 5.3% limit the downside, but US yields and PPI set the tone today.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.6740
- Support 1
- 0.6775
- Resistance 1
- 0.6850
- Resistance 2
- 0.6900
- Price (0.67994) is under all three averages (0.6962, 0.7012 and 0.7025) and at the channel floor near 0.6775. Main catalysts: US PPI at 13:30 GMT, Bowman at 15:50 and Daly at 17:00 GMT, and risk sentiment after Nvidia’s CEO exit headlines.
- RSI 31.66 under its 42.93 average: momentum is weak and close to oversold, so a bounce to the broken 0.6850 is the better entry than chasing lows. A close under 0.6775 targets 0.6740; a close above 0.6900 breaks the downtrend and opens the 0.6962 average.
Setup: Short at 0.6840, stop 0.6880, targets 0.6790, 0.6760 and 0.6740. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.0 / 2.5, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 0.6880, or if US PPI undershoots and the dollar index drops under 102.50. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
EUR/CHF | Investing.com quote, OANDA chart feed
EUR/CHF Analysis: Cross Breaks Its Falling Channel and Holds the 20-Day Average as Eurozone GDP Is Due at 10:00 GMT
0.92394 +0.00032 (+0.03%) on the OANDA feed Previous close 0.92362 | Range 0.92258 to 0.92432 | Poundsterlinglive 0.9242 (+0.09%)
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips with low conviction. EUR/CHF has recovered from the 0.9110 area and broken out of its falling channel, helped by a December ECB hike still expected as the last of the cycle. The euro is weak against the dollar near its lowest since April 2025, so the cross depends on Eurozone Q3 GDP at 10:00 GMT (consensus +0.4% on the quarter) and ECB comments from Schnabel and others.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.9165
- Support 1
- 0.9215
- Resistance 1
- 0.9290
- Resistance 2
- 0.9320
- Price (0.92394) is above the 20-day average (0.9217) and under the 50 and 100-day averages (0.9316 and 0.9320), which cap the rebound. Main catalysts: Eurozone Q3 GDP and trade balance at 10:00 GMT, ECB speakers and French bond spreads.
- RSI 49.05 over its 38.14 average: momentum has turned up from the lows and is neutral. A close above 0.9320 opens 0.9355 and 0.9400; a close under 0.9185 puts the breakout in doubt and targets 0.9110.
Setup: Long at 0.9225, stop 0.9185, targets 0.9290, 0.9320 and 0.9355. Reward:risk 1.6 / 2.4 / 3.2, low conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 0.9185, or if Eurozone GDP misses and French spreads widen. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
GBP/USD | Investing.com quote, FXCM chart feed
GBP/USD Analysis: Sterling Extends Its Slide Below the Broken Trendline as Fed Hawks Outshine Solid UK Growth
1.32272 −0.00067 (−0.05%) on the FXCM feed Previous close 1.32339 | Range 1.32207 to 1.32408 | Poundsterlinglive 1.3232, Exchangerates.org.uk 1.3236
Outlook: Bias is lower on bounces with medium conviction. Cable fell about 0.4% to 1.3224 on Thursday for a third straight down day even though UK Q3 GDP matched forecasts at +0.7%, the fastest in two and a half years, and September growth of 0.2% beat. The data keep a Bank of England December hike in play, but there is no UK data today, so US PPI and the Fed speakers dominate.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3140
- Support 1
- 1.3200
- Resistance 1
- 1.3300
- Resistance 2
- 1.3340
- Price (1.32272) is under all three averages (1.3339, 1.3359 and 1.3396) and the broken trendline. Main catalysts: US PPI at 13:30 GMT, Bowman at 15:50 and Daly at 17:00 GMT.
- RSI 40.24 under its 52.18 average: momentum has rolled over. A close under 1.3200 opens 1.3140, the October low; a close above 1.3340 puts the trendline break in doubt.
Setup: Short at 1.3290, stop 1.3340, targets 1.3220, 1.3180 and 1.3140. Reward:risk 1.4 / 2.2 / 3.0, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close above 1.3340, or if US PPI undershoots and Fed hike pricing fades. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
USD/CAD | Investing.com quote, OANDA chart feed
USD/CAD Analysis: Triangle Breakout Holds Near 1.4260 as a Strong Dollar Outweighs Firmer Oil
1.42610 +0.00036 (+0.03%) on the OANDA feed Previous close 1.42574 | Range 1.42522 to 1.42688 | Poundsterlinglive 1.4263 (+0.04%)
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips with medium conviction. USD/CAD is near its highest since mid-October after breaking above the triangle, because the dollar’s rally has swamped oil support from the Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and tanker blasts near Hormuz that lifted US crude 2.55% on Thursday. WTI was back near $87.50 on Friday, and Canadian manufacturing and wholesale sales at 13:30 GMT are second-tier.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.4085
- Support 1
- 1.4200
- Resistance 1
- 1.4300
- Resistance 2
- 1.4350
- Price (1.42610) is above all three averages (1.4045, 1.4073 and 1.4084) and about 40 pips under the mid-October high near 1.4300. Main catalysts: US PPI and Canadian manufacturing sales at 13:30 GMT, Fed speakers at 15:50 and 17:00 GMT, and oil.
- RSI 67.34 over its 50.06 average: momentum is strong and near overbought, so a pullback to the broken line is the better entry. A close above 1.4300 opens 1.4350; a close under 1.4190 puts the pair back inside the triangle.
Setup: Long at 1.4210, stop 1.4150, targets 1.4300, 1.4350 and 1.4400. Reward:risk 1.5 / 2.3 / 3.2, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 1.4150, or if oil jumps and US yields fall after PPI. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
USD/CHF | Investing.com quote, FXCM chart feed
USD/CHF Analysis: Dollar Holds a One-Month High Inside the Rising Channel as Fed Hike Bets Meet a 0% SNB
0.83539 +0.00013 (+0.02%) on the FXCM feed Previous close 0.83526 | Range 0.83424 to 0.83637 | Reuters “0.835, near a one-month high”, Poundsterlinglive 0.8362
Outlook: Bias is higher on dips with medium conviction. The pair has climbed about 2.7% from the channel floor near 0.8130 as Fed hike pricing widens the gap with the SNB’s 0% policy rate. No Swiss data is scheduled today, and a sharp equity sell-off after Nvidia’s CEO exit is the main risk that could revive franc safe-haven demand.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.8250
- Support 1
- 0.8300
- Resistance 1
- 0.8395
- Resistance 2
- 0.8450
- Price (0.83539) is above all three averages (0.8169, 0.8248 and 0.8251). Main catalysts: US PPI at 13:30 GMT, Bowman at 15:50 and Daly at 17:00 GMT, and franc safe-haven flows if equities fall.
- RSI 63.00 over its 49.69 average: momentum is firm but not stretched. A close above 0.8395 opens 0.8450; a close under 0.8250 breaks the rebound and targets the 0.8169 average.
Setup: Long at 0.8315, stop 0.8265, targets 0.8395, 0.8430 and 0.8465. Reward:risk 1.6 / 2.3 / 3.0, medium conviction. Cancel if a 4-hour close under 0.8265, or if US PPI undershoots and yields drop. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Conclusion
A 19-month-high dollar and rising Fed hike odds favor selling bounces in NZD/USD near 0.5575, AUD/USD near 0.6840 and GBP/USD near 1.3290 (medium conviction), and buying dips in USD/CAD near 1.4210 and USD/CHF near 0.8315 (medium). In EUR/CHF we favor buying a pullback to 0.9225 (low) because the cross has broken its falling channel. The session risks are Eurozone GDP at 10:00 GMT, US PPI at 13:30, Bowman at 15:50 and Daly at 17:00 GMT. A 4-hour close above 0.6880 in AUD/USD or under 0.9185 in EUR/CHF would change the picture.
Trade NZD/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/CHF, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the forex outlook for today?
The dollar index is at 103.17, near a 19-month high, on Fed hike bets, with the Aussie, Kiwi and sterling lower and the loonie and franc weak. Eurozone GDP at 10:00 GMT, US PPI at 13:30 GMT and the Bowman and Daly speeches are the scheduled tests.
Which forex trade ideas are live today?
Short NZD/USD near 0.5575, short AUD/USD near 0.6840, long EUR/CHF near 0.9225, short GBP/USD near 1.3290, long USD/CAD near 1.4210 and long USD/CHF near 0.8315, each with a stop and three targets valid until 21:00 GMT.
What time are the key events in GMT?
The London open is at 08:00 GMT, Eurozone GDP and trade at 10:00, US PPI and Canadian manufacturing and wholesale sales at 13:30, Bowman at 15:50, Daly at 17:00, setups expire at 21:00 and daily candles close at 22:00 GMT.
Why is the Aussie at a 10-month low?
The dollar is strong on Fed hike bets while the RBA is on hold at 4.85% and rate cuts are priced for next year, so the Australian yield advantage over Treasuries has disappeared.
Why is the dollar so strong today?
Hot US inflation and Fed talk of a possible 50 basis point December hike pushed two-year yields up 34 basis points in two sessions, and the 14.5% odds of a half-point move have lifted the index to 103.17.
