Week Ahead – US, 24–29 August 2026: Nvidia Earnings, Jackson Hole, and July PCE Headline a Pivotal US Week for Fed Chair Warsh
Week Ahead, 24–29 August: Nvidia Earnings, Jackson Hole, and July PCE Headline a Pivotal US Week for Fed Chair Warsh
Entering the week: S&P 500 7,674.37 (-1.4% on the week) · US 10Y Yield 4.74% · Gold $4,615.64 · USD/CAD 1.3767 · USD/CHF 0.8014 · Natural Gas $2.76 · Full US session trade ideas and economic calendar for the week ahead
Nvidia’s report and Friday’s Warsh-PCE pairing are the two events most likely to set the tone across every US asset class this week: a strong Nvidia print with confident forward guidance would likely extend the chip-and-AI-infrastructure leadership that has led the S&P 500 all year, while a soft PCE print paired with a dovish-leaning Warsh keynote would reinforce September rate-cut pricing and pressure the dollar and Treasury yields lower. Conversely, a hotter-than-expected PCE reading alongside a hawkish Warsh tone would risk restarting the long-end sell-off that drove last week’s losses. Housing data on Tuesday and Thursday, plus the GDP revision, round out the picture on whether the broader economy is cooling in an orderly way or losing more momentum than current pricing reflects.
The S&P 500 heads into the week roughly 1.8% below its 13 August record of 7,816.70, having snapped a three-week winning streak as the sell-off in long-dated Treasuries hit chip and AI-infrastructure names hardest. This week’s central question for US equities is whether Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings validate the market’s confidence in the AI trade, and whether Friday’s pairing of July PCE inflation with Fed Chair Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote reinforces or undercuts the market’s current September rate-cut expectations.
The US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.74% sits at the top of its 52-week range after a week of extreme volatility, with the 30-year near 5.28% and Treasury’s expanded buyback programme so far failing to anchor the long end. With no policy decision until mid-September, Friday’s PCE print and Chair Warsh’s keynote are the two clearest opportunities this week for the market to reprice where the Fed is likely to land, particularly given the softer retail-sales and consumer-sentiment signals from earlier in August.
Elsewhere, Gold at $4,615.64 has broken above its 200-day moving average near $4,514 on the unresolved Strait of Hormuz standoff, a slumping dollar and questions over Fed credibility. USD/CAD at 1.3767 reflects a broadly offered dollar, but the newly announced 50% US tariffs on Canadian goods are now the dominant catalyst for the pair. In crypto, Bitcoin has broken sharply higher to $78,335 on CLARITY Act momentum and record ETF inflows, while XRP trades at $1.4538 after leading the altcoin rally, with reports of a sharp Saturday flash crash making this the most volatile line on the board.
Three Forces That Will Drive the US Session — 24 to 29 August 2026
The scheduled US-session catalysts that will set the direction across equities, rates, commodities, and digital assets for the week of 24–29 August 2026
US Session Weekly Trade Ideas
Eight instrument-specific setups with entry, stop, and target levels for the week of 24–29 August 2026. All levels for reference only; not financial advice. Fund your deposit and visit capitalstreetfx.com for live signals and other markets.
Thesis — Buy Confirmed Dips; Nvidia and the Warsh Keynote Are the Week’s Pivot Points
The S&P 500’s 1.4% weekly loss was driven by the long end of the curve rather than by earnings, and CSFX would treat a confirmed dip toward 7,550 as a buying opportunity, contingent on Nvidia’s earnings not undermining confidence in the AI-infrastructure trade and on Friday’s PCE-Warsh pairing not reading materially more hawkish than current pricing implies.
Thesis — Friday’s PCE-Warsh Pairing Argues Against Chasing Yields Sharply Lower
With the long end under sustained pressure and Treasury’s buyback programme so far failing to hold yields down, CSFX sees the risk-reward favoring a fade of any sharp yield decline toward 4.60% ahead of Friday’s PCE print and Chair Warsh’s keynote. A hotter-than-expected PCE reading paired with a hawkish-leaning Warsh tone would likely push the 10-year back toward 4.95%.
Thesis — Buy Dips; Hormuz Risk and Jackson Hole Uncertainty Both Argue for a Firm Floor
Gold’s ~5.6% weekly surge to a three-month high reflects the unresolved Strait of Hormuz standoff, a slumping dollar and growing questions over Fed credibility, and CSFX treats dips toward the 200-day moving average near $4,500 as accumulation opportunities into Friday’s PCE-Warsh pairing. A dovish-leaning keynote alongside a soft PCE print would likely extend gold’s advance toward fresh highs.
Thesis — Fade Rallies; A Broadly Offered Dollar Argues for Continued Downside
USD/CAD’s slide toward a three-month low reflects a broadly offered US dollar and firm oil — but the newly announced 50% US tariffs on Canadian goods cut directly against that trend and inject two-way risk. CSFX has moved this setup to neutral: rallies toward 1.3950 remain a selling opportunity only if the tariff headlines are walked back, and CSFX would stand aside on a decisive break above 1.4060.
Thesis — Sell Rallies; Franc’s Safe-Haven Pull Persists Through Jackson Hole
USD/CHF continues to trade heavy as the franc’s safe-haven appeal, reinforced by the unresolved Strait of Hormuz standoff and a dollar index down near 98.77, offsets a still-elevated US 10-year yield. CSFX favors selling rallies toward 0.8130 into Friday’s PCE-Warsh pairing, with a meaningfully hawkish surprise the main risk to this view.
Thesis — Buy Dips; Late-Summer Demand Offers Support, High Output Caps Upside
Natural gas continues to find support from residual late-summer cooling demand, even as Lower-48 production near record highs keeps a lid on sustained rallies. CSFX would treat dips toward $2.65 as a buying opportunity, watching weekly EIA storage data for confirmation that the surplus to the five-year average continues to narrow heading into the shoulder season.
Thesis — Buy the Dip, Don’t Chase; the Breakout Has Already Happened
Bitcoin has broken decisively higher, gaining roughly 22% on the week to $78,335 — its strongest run since 2024 — on CLARITY Act momentum, a weaker dollar and heavy spot-ETF inflows led by BlackRock. After a move of that size CSFX would not chase strength: dips toward $72,000 are the preferred entry, with $88,000 the upside objective and a failure back below $66,000 invalidating the setup.
Thesis — Buy Dips After a 40% Week; Volatility Is the Main Risk
XRP led the entire altcoin complex last week, surging roughly 40% to close Friday at $1.4538 as the CLARITY Act advanced in Washington. Reports of a sharp Saturday flash crash mean this is the fastest-moving level on the board and should be re-checked before publication. CSFX favors buying dips toward $1.25 rather than chasing strength, with $1.85 the upside objective and $1.10 the invalidation.
What Could Move the US Market Next Week
The macro, earnings, geopolitical, and crypto catalysts CSFX is watching for the week of 24–29 August 2026
US Session Economic Calendar — 24–29 August 2026
Key scheduled US releases and earnings for the week, with times in US Eastern Time (ET)
| Day | Time (ET) | Release | Impact | Forecast | CSFX View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, 24 August | |||||
| Mon | 8:30 AM | Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July) | LOW | N/A | A quiet open to the week’s data calendar, offering a broad national-activity gauge ahead of Tuesday’s consumer and housing releases. |
| Mon | 10:30 AM | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (August) | LOW | N/A | A regional manufacturing read that sets an early tone ahead of the week’s more market-moving events later on. |
| Tuesday, 25 August | |||||
| Tue | 8:30 AM | Durable Goods Orders (July) | MED | N/A | A read on business investment and manufacturing demand that will be weighed alongside Thursday’s GDP revision for a fuller growth picture. |
| Tue | 9:00 AM | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (June) | LOW | N/A | A home-price gauge read alongside New Home Sales for a fuller picture of housing-market momentum heading into the fall. |
| Tue | 10:00 AM | Conference Board Consumer Confidence (August) & New Home Sales (July) | HIGH | N/A | The week’s first major consumer-health check since last week’s mixed retail earnings, and a release markets will watch closely for confirmation of whether sentiment is stabilizing after July’s slump. |
| Wednesday, 26 August | |||||
| Wed | After Close | Earnings: Nvidia | HIGH | N/A | The week’s single biggest catalyst. Results and forward guidance will be treated as a direct test of the AI-infrastructure trade underpinning much of the S&P 500’s recent record run. |
| Wed | 10:30 AM | EIA Weekly Crude Oil & Natural Gas Storage | MED | N/A | Weekly inventory data read against the ongoing Strait of Hormuz standoff for confirmation of how tightly the physical oil market is balanced. |
| Thursday, 27 August | |||||
| Thu | 8:30 AM | Q2 GDP (Second Estimate) & Initial Jobless Claims | HIGH | N/A | The revised GDP figure offers an updated read on growth momentum heading into Friday’s PCE print, while jobless claims add a weekly labor-market pulse check ahead of Warsh’s keynote. |
| Thu | 10:00 AM | Pending Home Sales (July) | MED | N/A | A forward-looking housing indicator that rounds out the week’s picture on residential demand ahead of the weekend’s Jackson Hole coverage. |
| Thu | All Day | Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Begins | MED | N/A | The Kansas City Fed’s annual gathering opens in Wyoming, with early remarks from regional Fed presidents likely to be parsed for hints ahead of Friday’s headline keynote. |
| Friday, 28 August | |||||
| Fri | 8:30 AM | Core PCE Price Index (July) & Personal Income/Spending | HIGH | N/A | The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, released the same morning as Chair Warsh’s keynote. CSFX sees this pairing as the week’s highest-risk event for a sharp market reaction. |
| Fri | 10:00 AM | Fed Chair Warsh Delivers Jackson Hole Keynote Address | HIGH | N/A | Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote as chair. Markets will parse the speech closely for signals on how the Fed views the surge in long-end yields and the pressure on its independence. |
| Fri | 10:00 AM | University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final, August) | MED | N/A | The final August sentiment reading, offering a last data point on the consumer heading into the long weekend and September’s policy decision. |
US Session — Trader Questions Answered
Key questions from CSFX clients ahead of Nvidia’s earnings and Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote
CSFX View: Nvidia Earnings and the Warsh-PCE Pairing Set the Table for September
The week of 24–29 August 2026 presents the US session with its most consequential single week of the summer: Nvidia’s Wednesday earnings, the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium running Thursday through Saturday, and Friday’s rare same-day release of July PCE inflation alongside Fed Chair Warsh’s first keynote address as chair. The S&P 500 at 7,674.37 enters the week down 1.4% after snapping a three-week winning streak, with chip and AI-infrastructure names hit hardest by the surge in long-end yields. The US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.74% sits at the top of its 52-week range and the 30-year near 5.28%, with Treasury’s expanded buyback programme so far failing to anchor the long end. Gold at $4,615.64 has broken out to a three-month high on the unresolved Strait of Hormuz standoff and a slumping dollar, while USD/CAD at 1.3767 now faces the newly announced 50% US tariffs on Canadian goods. In crypto, Bitcoin at $78,335 and XRP at $1.4538 both enter the week off explosive gains on CLARITY Act momentum.
CSFX’s framework for the week centers on two pivot points: Wednesday’s Nvidia earnings for equity-market direction, and Friday’s PCE-Warsh pairing for the broader rates, dollar, and risk-appetite picture. In equities, CSFX favors buying confirmed S&P 500 dips toward 7,550, contingent on Nvidia’s results not undermining the AI-infrastructure trade and on Friday’s data-and-speech combination not reading materially hawkish. In rates, with the 10-year at 4.74% and the long end unanchored, CSFX would not chase yields lower ahead of Friday; a fade of any decline toward 4.60% is the preferred setup. In FX, USD/CHF still favors fading dollar strength given the currency’s broadly offered tone, while USD/CAD has moved to neutral on the 50% tariff announcement; a hawkish Friday surprise is the key risk to both views. In commodities, gold’s dips remain buyable given the still-unresolved Hormuz standoff, while natural gas is a buy on dips given continued late-summer demand offset by high production. In crypto, both BTC and XRP have already broken out and CSFX would buy dips rather than chase, with a hawkish Warsh keynote the most likely trigger for a sharp unwind.
CSFX’s highest-conviction setups for the week are: buying gold dips toward $4,500 into Friday’s PCE-Warsh pairing, and buying confirmed S&P 500 dips toward 7,550 around Nvidia’s earnings. USD/CAD has moved to neutral pending clarity on the newly announced 50% US tariffs on Canadian goods, with 1.3600 the downside objective if those measures are softened; the US 10-year yield is a fade of declines toward 4.60%, with 4.95% the target if Friday’s data and keynote read more hawkish than currently priced; BTC is a buy on dips to $72,000 rather than a chase at $78,000; and XRP is a buy on dips to $1.25. CSFX will issue intra-week alerts if Nvidia’s earnings sharply beat or miss expectations, if Friday’s PCE print or the Warsh keynote surprise materially in either direction, if Strait of Hormuz tensions escalate following Monday’s Bessent press conference on isolating Iran, or if the long end of the Treasury curve resumes its sell-off. Follow all updates at capitalstreetfx.com.
New clients can also take advantage of a limited-time deposit bonus when they open an account this week, on top of the usual account benefits — tight spreads, high leverage, and access to 2000+ instruments across FX, commodities, indices, and crypto. Full terms and other promotions are available on the CSFX website.
Trade US Markets at CSFX →
