Yen and Swiss Franc Lead as AI Fears Hit Tech, USD/JPY Falls to 156.88, USD/CHF Tests 0.8216 and EUR/USD Holds 1.1209 Before Flash PMIs | Technical Analysis – Forex Report | 23 Oct 2026
Forex Today | Friday 23 October 2026
Yen and Swiss Franc Lead as AI Fears Hit Tech, USD/JPY Falls to 156.88, USD/CHF Tests 0.8216 and EUR/USD Holds 1.1209 Before Flash PMIs
Market Overview
The dollar is near a three-week low and safe-haven currencies are leading on Friday. At about 06:00 GMT USD/JPY was 156.88 (+0.08%), AUD/USD 0.7011 (−0.12%), EUR/USD 1.1209 (−0.05%), GBP/CHF 1.1003 (+0.08%), USD/CAD 1.4012 (+0.02%) and USD/CHF 0.8216 (+0.15%). A Thursday tech rout over AI funding sent the 10-year Treasury yield below 5% at about 4.96%, Brent is above $113 on Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, and French bond yields are at a 24-year high. We read the session as a haven-led dollar slide against the yen, franc and Canadian dollar, while the euro and Aussie stay heavy; flash PMIs from 07:15 GMT and the Fed, Bank of Canada, ECB and Bank of Japan next week are the next tests.
Key highlights
- USD/JPY: Price is 156.88 under the 157.55 and 157.88 averages; 156.00 is the key floor.
- AUD/USD: Price is 0.7011 under the 0.7033 average with RSI 50.10; the RBA hikes on 3 November.
- EUR/USD: Price is 1.1209 under the 1.1234 average and a falling channel roof; flash PMIs at 08:00 GMT.
- GBP/CHF: Price is 1.1003 on a rising channel floor and the 50-day average at 1.0984.
- USD/CAD: Price is 1.4012 on the 50-day average after seven daily losses; oil near $113 Brent.
- USD/CHF: Price is 0.8216 on a wedge floor and the 50-day average at 0.8193, a one-month low.
What’s Moving Forex Today
AI funding fears hit tech and spark the biggest Treasury rally in over three years
The Nasdaq 100 fell almost 3% on Thursday as Meta lost nearly 8% after its first cash outflow in over a decade, and the 10-year yield dropped about 19 basis points to near 4.96%. Fed hike bets were pared back, the dollar index sits near a three-week low around 101.5, and the yen and Swiss franc took the safe-haven flows.
Japan core CPI rises above 2% and the yen posts its biggest daily gain in a month
Japan’s core CPI rose to 2.1% in September, the first reading above the Bank of Japan’s target in nine months, while the October manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.3 from 54.1. A Reuters poll expects a hold on 30 October and a hike in December, and USD/JPY dipped to 156.08 before steadying near 156.88.
French bond stress lifts the franc and USD/CHF hits a one-month low
French 10-year yields rose to about 5.06%, the highest since 2002, and Swiss fiscal strength has made the franc the preferred haven for that risk. USD/CHF fell to 0.8191 and broke the 0.8230 neckline of a double top, a pattern FXStreet reads as bearish toward 0.8070.
The euro stays near 1.12 as France weighs and flash PMIs arrive
Euro-zone consumer confidence fell to −17.9 in October against −17.0 expected, and the ECB is expected to hold at 2.5% on 29 October. France, Germany and euro-zone flash PMIs at 07:15, 07:30 and 08:00 GMT are forecast to stay above 50 but slow, with a euro-zone composite near 52.3.
Brent above $113 and Bank of Canada hike bets drag USD/CAD to 1.4000
Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites pushed Brent to a five-month high near $114 and USD/CAD has now fallen seven days in a row. Scotiabank expects a 25 bp Bank of Canada hike on 28 October, and Canadian retail sales are due at 12:30 GMT, forecast up 1.3%.
RBA hike odds near 60% hold the Aussie, while UK data close a big week for sterling
AUD/USD holds above 0.7000 as RBA Deputy Governor Hauser warns the inflation outlook is worsening and the RBA decides on 3 November, even though Australia’s services PMI fell to 47.5. UK CPI hit 3.5% and unemployment fell to 4.7%; UK retail sales print at 06:00 GMT and flash PMIs at 08:30 GMT.
Key Drivers Ahead
Six events that set direction for USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/CHF, USD/CAD and USD/CHF. All times are GMT.
- Euro-zone flash PMIs
- 52.3
- Fri 23 Oct, 08:00 GMT
- Composite forecast; EUR/USD and GBP/CHF test
- UK flash PMIs
- 51.8
- Fri 23 Oct, 08:30 GMT
- Services forecast; retail sales at 06:00 GMT
- Canada retail sales
- +1.3%
- Fri 23 Oct, 12:30 GMT
- Forecast after −0.7%; USD/CAD
- US flash PMIs
- 57.9
- Fri 23 Oct, 13:45 GMT
- Services forecast; manufacturing 55.4
- FOMC and Bank of Canada
- 28 Oct
- Wed 28 Oct, 13:45 and 18:00 GMT
- BoC hike priced; Fed hold about 85%
- ECB and Bank of Japan
- 29–30 Oct
- Thu 29 Oct 12:45 GMT; Fri 30 Oct
- ECB hold at 2.5%; BoJ hold, hike in December
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/CHF, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, valid for today’s session and the Monday Asian open. A 1-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Short | 157.50 | 158.20 | 156.00 | 155.00 | 2.1 / 3.6 | Medium |
| AUD/USD | Short | 0.7035 | 0.7080 | 0.6980 | 0.6910 | 1.2 / 2.8 | Low |
| EUR/USD | Short | 1.1235 | 1.1280 | 1.1150 | 1.1100 | 1.9 / 3.0 | Medium |
| GBP/CHF | Long | 1.0990 | 1.0945 | 1.1060 | 1.1100 | 1.6 / 2.4 | Low |
| USD/CAD | Short | 1.4060 | 1.4115 | 1.3980 | 1.3900 | 1.5 / 2.9 | Medium |
| USD/CHF | Short | 0.8235 | 0.8290 | 0.8160 | 0.8100 | 1.4 / 2.5 | Medium |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. Prices are read at about 05:53 to 06:02 GMT on 23 October from TradingView daily charts; every entry sits away from the current price and needs a bounce or a pullback to trigger. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
Flash PMIs, oil and US yields are the swing factors today, with the Fed and Bank of Canada on 28 October the main events next week.
Risk-off deepens: tech sells off again, Brent holds above $113 and flash PMIs slow
Another tech leg lower, French stress or soft PMIs would favour the yen, franc and Canadian dollar and weigh on the euro and Aussie.
- USD/JPY156.00, then 155.00
- AUD/USD0.6976, then 0.6910
- EUR/USD1.1150, then 1.1100
- GBP/CHF1.0984, then 1.0895
- USD/CAD1.3980, then 1.3900
- USD/CHF0.8193, then 0.8134
Risk-on rebound: tech steadies, PMIs hold up and oil eases
Stable tech, firm PMIs and a pullback in oil would let the dollar recover from its three-week low and lift yields back toward 5%.
- USD/JPY157.55, then 158.00
- AUD/USD0.7033, then 0.7075
- EUR/USD1.1234, then 1.1300
- GBP/CHF1.1060, then 1.1100
- USD/CAD1.4045, then 1.4115
- USD/CHF0.8250, then 0.8294
US Dollar / Japanese Yen | USD/JPY, FXCM feed
USD/JPY Analysis: Price Breaks the Floor of a Triangle and Sits Under Its 20- and 50-Day Averages Near 156.9
156.88 +0.124 (+0.08%) at about 05:57 GMT Day range 156.07–157.12
Outlook: Bias is lower while 157.55 caps rallies. The yen posted its strongest daily gain in almost a month as AI funding fears and a 2.1% Japanese core CPI print pulled US yields down, and the Bank of Japan meets on 30 October.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 155.00
- Support 1
- 156.00
- Resistance 1
- 157.55
- Resistance 2
- 158.00
- Price (156.88) is under the 157.55 and 157.88 averages and the 159.33 average; a daily close under 156.00 would aim at 155.00 and then the 153.00 September low.
- RSI 42.08 is under its signal line at 52.51 and has turned down from neutral; a close back above 157.88 would put the breakdown in doubt.
Setup: Short at 157.50, stop 158.20, targets 156.00 and 155.00. Reward:risk 2.1 / 3.6, medium conviction.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar | AUD/USD, OANDA feed
AUD/USD Analysis: Price Tests the 100-Day Average Under a Falling Roof After Breaking a Rising Channel
0.7011 −0.0008 (−0.12%) at about 05:57 GMT Day range 0.7005–0.7024
Outlook: Bias is neutral to lower while 0.7033 caps rallies. A hawkish RBA, with a hike on 3 November priced near 60%, is holding the Aussie above 0.7000, but Australia’s services PMI fell to 47.5 and tech weakness limits risk appetite.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.6910
- Support 1
- 0.6976
- Resistance 1
- 0.7033
- Resistance 2
- 0.7075
- Price (0.7011) is above the 0.6976 average and under the 0.7033 and 0.7075 averages; the October low near 0.6890 is the main support.
- RSI 50.10 is above its signal line at 42.09, so the bounce has momentum, but a rejection at 0.7033 would send price back toward 0.6976.
Setup: Short at 0.7035, stop 0.7080, targets 0.6980 and 0.6910. Reward:risk 1.2 / 2.8, low conviction.
Euro / US Dollar | EUR/USD, FXCM feed
EUR/USD Analysis: Price Rebounds Toward the Roof of a Falling Channel Under the 20-Day Average
1.1209 −0.0005 (−0.05%) at about 05:53 GMT Day range 1.1208–1.1226
Outlook: Bias is lower while 1.1234 caps rallies. French fiscal stress, with the 10-year yield at 5.06%, and softer euro-zone consumer confidence outweigh the weaker dollar, and flash PMIs at 08:00 GMT are the test.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.1100
- Support 1
- 1.1150
- Resistance 1
- 1.1234
- Resistance 2
- 1.1300
- Price (1.1209) is under the 1.1234 average and well under the 1.1436 and 1.1450 averages; the channel floor near 1.1040 is the next major support.
- RSI 38.27 is above its signal line at 32.04, a recovery from oversold; a daily close above 1.1300 would break the channel roof.
Setup: Short at 1.1235, stop 1.1280, targets 1.1150 and 1.1100. Reward:risk 1.9 / 3.0, medium conviction.
British Pound / Swiss Franc | GBP/CHF, OANDA feed
GBP/CHF Analysis: Price Rests on the Floor of a Rising Channel and the 50-Day Average Near 1.1000
1.1003 +0.0009 (+0.08%) at about 05:59 GMT Day range 1.0982–1.1014
Outlook: Bias is neutral while 1.0984 holds. Sterling is backed by UK CPI at 3.5% and a likely Bank of England hike on 5 November, but safe-haven franc buying caps the cross, and UK retail sales and PMIs print this morning.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.0895
- Support 1
- 1.0984
- Resistance 1
- 1.1060
- Resistance 2
- 1.1100
- Price (1.1003) is at the 1.1011 and 1.0984 averages and above the 1.0895 average; the channel floor and the 50-day average cluster as support.
- RSI 50.52 is under its signal line at 52.40 and flat; a close under 1.0945 would open the 1.0895 average and the channel break.
Setup: Long at 1.0990, stop 1.0945, targets 1.1060 and 1.1100. Reward:risk 1.6 / 2.4, low conviction.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar | USD/CAD, OANDA feed
USD/CAD Analysis: Price Falls to the 50-Day Average After Seven Straight Daily Losses From the 1.4300 Highs
1.4012 +0.0003 (+0.02%) at about 06:00 GMT Day range 1.3997–1.4015
Outlook: Bias is lower while 1.4115 caps rallies. Brent above $113 after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites supports the Canadian dollar, a Bank of Canada hike is priced for 28 October, and retail sales print at 12:30 GMT.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3900
- Support 1
- 1.3980
- Resistance 1
- 1.4045
- Resistance 2
- 1.4115
- Price (1.4012) is on the 1.4013 average and under the 1.4045 and 1.4179 averages; a daily close under 1.3980 would aim at 1.3900 and the rising floor from the May low.
- RSI 38.38 is under its signal line at 55.94; the 1.4045 to 1.4115 band is the first resistance on any oil-driven bounce.
Setup: Short at 1.4060, stop 1.4115, targets 1.3980 and 1.3900. Reward:risk 1.5 / 2.9, medium conviction.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc | USD/CHF, FXCM feed
USD/CHF Analysis: Price Tests the Floor of a Rising Wedge and the 50-Day Average at a One-Month Low
0.8216 +0.0013 (+0.15%) at about 06:02 GMT Day range 0.8192–0.8220
Outlook: Bias is lower while 0.8250 caps rallies. The franc gained on French fiscal stress and tech-led risk aversion, and USD/CHF broke the 0.8230 double-top neckline to hit its lowest in a month near 0.8190 before this small bounce.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.8134
- Support 1
- 0.8193
- Resistance 1
- 0.8250
- Resistance 2
- 0.8294
- Price (0.8216) is above the 0.8193 and 0.8135 averages and under the 0.8294 average; losing 0.8193 would threaten the 100-day average at 0.8134.
- RSI 44.54 is under its signal line at 54.98; reclaiming 0.8250 would expose 0.8300 and weaken the bearish case.
Setup: Short at 0.8235, stop 0.8290, targets 0.8160 and 0.8100. Reward:risk 1.4 / 2.5, medium conviction.
Conclusion
The dollar is losing to the yen, franc and Canadian dollar but not to the euro or Aussie, so we prefer selling USD/JPY bounces under 158.20, USD/CAD bounces under 1.4115 and USD/CHF bounces under 0.8290, and selling EUR/USD under 1.1280 and AUD/USD under 0.7080. GBP/CHF is a lower-conviction long from the channel floor while 1.0945 holds. The nearest risks are the euro-zone and UK PMIs at 08:00 and 08:30 GMT, Canada retail sales at 12:30 GMT, US PMIs at 13:45 GMT, then the BoC and Fed on 28 October, the ECB on 29 October and the Bank of Japan on 30 October. A daily USD/CHF close under 0.8193 would confirm the franc breakout.
Trade USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/CHF, USD/CAD and USD/CHF with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is USD/JPY falling today?
A tech sell-off drove the biggest Treasury rally in over three years, cutting US yields, while Japan’s core CPI rose to 2.1%, above the Bank of Japan’s target. Price is 156.88, under the 157.55 and 157.88 averages, and a close under 156.00 would aim at 155.00.
Why did USD/CHF hit a one-month low?
French bond yields at their highest since 2002 and AI-driven risk aversion boosted the franc. USD/CHF fell to 0.8191 and now sits on the 50-day average at 0.8193; losing it would open the 100-day average at 0.8134.
Why is USD/CAD down seven days in a row?
Brent above $113 supports the Canadian dollar and markets price a Bank of Canada hike on 28 October. Price is on the 50-day average at 1.4013; a close under 1.3980 would target 1.3900, while a bounce into 1.4045 to 1.4115 meets resistance.
How do the Fed, BoC, ECB and BoJ decisions next week affect these pairs?
The BoC (13:45 GMT) and Fed (18:00 GMT) decide on 28 October, the ECB at 12:45 GMT on 29 October and the Bank of Japan on 30 October. A hawkish Fed would lift yields and the dollar against the yen and franc, while a BoJ hike signal would extend yen gains.
