Dollar Sinks to a Five-Week Low as Oil Plunges 8%: Sterling Faces the BoE at 12:00 GMT and EUR/USD Targets 1.1352 | Technical Analysis – Forex Report | 05 Nov 2026
Forex Live | Thursday 5 November 2026 | Prices as of 06:50 GMT | BoE decision due 12:00 GMT
Dollar Sinks to a Five-Week Low as Oil Plunges 8%: Sterling Faces the BoE at 12:00 GMT and EUR/USD Targets 1.1352
Market Overview
The dollar is in free fall: the index has dropped to about 101.0 to 101.25, its lowest since 30 September, after Democrats seized both chambers of Congress and oil crashed more than 8% in one session. Every one of the six majors is moving with it. EUR/USD (1.12627, +0.31%) is rebuilding from the falling-channel floor, GBP/USD (1.34940, +0.18%) is on a seventh straight daily gain and its highest levels since mid-September, AUD/USD has reclaimed 0.7000 at 0.70202, and USD/CHF (0.81400, -0.37%) has just snapped the rising channel that held since July. USD/JPY (157.891, -0.33%) and USD/CAD (1.39462, -0.23%) are sliding too. WTI near 88 dollars and Brent near 95 dollars pulled the 10-year yield to about 4.89% and sent gold back above 4,100 dollars.
This is a move driven by politics and oil, not by the Fed: ADP (86,000) and ISM services (54.5, prices 73.0) were firm yesterday and a December hike is still priced near 80%, so one hot print can drag the dollar off its lows. The showdown is the Bank of England at 12:00 GMT, followed by US claims, productivity and unit labour costs at 13:30 GMT, Hammack at 13:50 GMT, Barkin at 14:10 GMT and the US equity open at 14:30 GMT. A 25bp hike to 4.00% is already in the price, so sterling needs a hawkish 7-2 vote or tighter to keep running; a softer message into a crowded long is the day’s biggest reversal risk. EUR/USD needs a close above 1.1352 and GBP/USD above 1.3520 to confirm the dollar breakdown, and USD/CHF must regain 0.8158 to question its own. The desk plan: buy pullbacks in EUR/USD near 1.1215 and GBP/USD near 1.3440 (medium conviction), sell rallies in USD/JPY near 158.60 and USD/CHF near 0.8165 (medium), and fade USD/CAD near 1.4010 and AUD/USD near 0.7050 (low). Every entry sits away from the price, so patience is part of the trade.
Key highlights
- USD/JPY: Price (157.891) vs 157.957 fast, 157.338 medium and 159.102 slow averages; RSI 50.48.
- AUD/USD: Price (0.70202) vs 0.69991 fast, 0.70315 medium and 0.70526 slow averages; RSI 51.13.
- EUR/USD: Price (1.12627) vs 1.11959 fast, 1.13523 medium and 1.14176 slow averages; RSI 52.99.
- GBP/USD: Price (1.34940) vs 1.33419 fast, 1.33647 medium and 1.33898 slow averages; RSI 66.02.
- USD/CAD: Price (1.39462) vs 1.40746 fast, 1.40440 medium and 1.40405 slow averages; RSI 35.93.
- USD/CHF: Price (0.81400) vs 0.82535 fast, 0.82285 medium and 0.81576 slow averages; RSI 36.85.
What’s Moving Forex Today
The dollar slides to its lowest since 30 September after Democrats sweep Congress
Reuters reports the dollar index fell 0.22% to about 101.25 on Thursday, extending Wednesday’s 0.34% drop, with FXStreet putting it near monthly lows around 101.00, as lower oil prices and Treasury yields followed the midterm result. The euro rose 0.29% to 1.1261, the yen gained 0.27% to 157.95 per dollar and the kiwi jumped 0.41% to 0.5641. A strategist quoted by Reuters warned part of the move may be positioning and overreaction to the midterms.
Source: Reuters via Investing.com, FXStreet, 5 Nov 2026
Oil collapses as markets bet on pressure for an Iran settlement
WTI settled near 88.12 dollars and Brent near 94.62 dollars on Wednesday, each down more than 8%, as traders cut the geopolitical premium. The US 10-year yield eased to about 4.89% and gold jumped above 4,000 dollars, holding above 4,100 in Thursday’s session. Distillate stocks are at a two-decade low, so a diplomatic setback could reverse crude fast and hit the yen and franc bid.
Source: TraderFactor, Rio Times, 5 Nov 2026
Bank of England is set to hike to 4.00% at 12:00 GMT, with the vote and guidance the real test
A Reuters poll expects a 7-2 vote for a 25bp rise from 3.75%, the first increase since August 2023, after UK inflation reached 3.5%. Sterling is up for a seventh straight session and heading for its highest close since 14 September, so the hike is priced; Reuters says the Bank may push back on bets for several more rises and PIMCO sees only one more, in February, so a cautious message is a real risk for the pound. Final UK services PMI was revised to 52.8.
Source: Reuters, investingLive, Brit Brief, 5 Nov 2026
Bank of Japan minutes reinforce bets on further rate hikes
Reuters says minutes from the BoJ’s September meeting added to expectations of more tightening, which together with lower US yields pulled USD/JPY down to about 157.9 from 158.4. The pair stays sensitive to any rebound in the 10-year yield.
Source: Reuters via Investing.com, 5 Nov 2026
Euro-area inflation jumps to 4.0%, keeping ECB tightening on the table
October inflation accelerated from 3.8%, with energy inflation near 20.8% and services at 3.3%. With oil now sharply lower the picture may ease later, but the ECB cannot rely on that yet, and euro-area PPI at 10:00 GMT adds to the inflation read.
Source: TraderFactor, Eurostat, 5 Nov 2026
RBA hike to 4.85% and a weaker dollar lift the Aussie back above 0.7000
The reaction to Tuesday’s rate rise was muted because it was priced, but a wider Australian trade surplus and the dollar’s slide have taken AUD/USD to 0.7020. A soft Chinese services PMI of 50.8 and falling Asian chip stocks cap the upside.
Source: TraderFactor, Rio Times, 5 Nov 2026
US data stays firm, so a December Fed hike is still about 80% priced
ADP showed 86,000 private jobs added in October and ISM services held at 54.5 with a prices index of 73.0. Cleveland Fed’s Hammack, who favoured a hike in October, speaks at 13:50 GMT, and Richmond Fed’s Barkin follows at 14:10 GMT.
Source: TraderFactor, FXStreet, 5 Nov 2026
Key Drivers for the Rest of Today
Six things that set direction for the rest of the session in the six majors. All times are GMT.
- Swiss unemployment (October)
- 08:00
- Thu 5 Nov, 08:00 GMT
- Forecast 3.1%, unchanged. A higher reading would ease SNB hawkishness and help USD/CHF; an in-line print keeps the franc bid.
- Norges Bank decision
- 09:00
- Thu 5 Nov, 09:00 GMT
- Hold at 4.50% expected. Guidance on oil-linked inflation could move NOK crosses and, indirectly, USD/CAD.
- Bank of England decision and Monetary Policy Report
- 12:00
- Thu 5 Nov, 12:00 GMT
- Hike to 4.00% expected with a 7-2 vote. Bailey speaks at 12:30 GMT. The split and guidance decide GBP/USD and the dollar.
- US jobless claims, Q3 productivity and unit labour costs
- 13:30
- Thu 5 Nov, 13:30 GMT
- Claims forecast 196K against 194K. A low print backs a dollar rebound from its one-month low; a rise extends the slide.
- Fed speakers Hammack and Barkin
- 13:50
- Thu 5 Nov, 13:50 and 14:10 GMT
- Hammack preferred a hike in October. Any December language moves Treasury yields and USD/JPY.
- US equity open
- 14:30
- Thu 5 Nov, 14:30 GMT
- After Wednesday’s 3% Dow rally, a fade would restore haven demand for the yen and franc.
Trade Setups for Today
Ranked in the order USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF, valid until 21:00 GMT today. A 4-hour close beyond the stop cancels the idea.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY (USDJPY) | Short | 158.600 | 159.400 | 157.340 | 156.500 | 1.6 / 2.6 | Medium |
| AUD/USD (AUDUSD) | Short | 0.70500 | 0.70950 | 0.70000 | 0.69500 | 1.1 / 2.2 | Low |
| EUR/USD (EURUSD) | Long | 1.12150 | 1.11500 | 1.13100 | 1.13520 | 1.5 / 2.1 | Medium |
| GBP/USD (GBPUSD) | Long | 1.34400 | 1.33750 | 1.35200 | 1.35800 | 1.2 / 2.2 | Medium |
| USD/CAD (USDCAD) | Short | 1.40100 | 1.40850 | 1.39200 | 1.38700 | 1.2 / 1.9 | Low |
| USD/CHF (USDCHF) | Short | 0.81650 | 0.82150 | 0.81000 | 0.80500 | 1.3 / 2.3 | Medium |
Entry is the midpoint of each entry zone, and reward:risk is the distance from entry to each target divided by the distance from entry to the stop. A third target for each pair is in its section below. Prices are feed prices from the daily charts captured at about 06:50 GMT (12:20 UTC+5:30) on 5 November. Every entry sits away from the market and needs a pullback or a bounce; the BoE at 12:00 GMT and US data at 13:30 GMT can gap prices through any level, so do not leave GBP/USD orders unattended through the decision. The dollar moves all six pairs together, so a sharp dollar rebound hits the EUR/USD and GBP/USD longs at once while helping the other four shorts. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Risk Scenario Analysis
The BoE at 12:00 GMT and US data at 13:30 GMT are the swing factors for the rest of today.
Dovish BoE hike, low claims and hawkish Fed speakers: the dollar bounces from its five-week low
A BoE hike with a split vote and soft guidance would hit sterling, and low claims plus a hawkish Hammack would lift yields, sending EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD back to support while the dollar pairs recover.
- USDJPY158.700, then 159.100
- AUDUSD0.69990, then 0.69700
- EURUSD1.11960, then 1.11600
- GBPUSD1.34300, then 1.33800
- USDCAD1.40400, then 1.40750
- USDCHF0.81580, then 0.82000
Hawkish BoE hike, higher claims and lower yields: the dollar slide extends
A 7-2 or tighter vote with a warning on further hikes, rising claims and a further oil fall would push the dollar index toward 101.00 and lift the euro, sterling and Aussie into their averages.
- USDJPY157.340, then 156.500
- AUDUSD0.70320, then 0.70530
- EURUSD1.13200, then 1.13520
- GBPUSD1.35200, then 1.35800
- USDCAD1.39200, then 1.38700
- USDCHF0.81200, then 0.80800
The BoE comes first, at 12:00 GMT
A hike with a 7-2 vote or tighter, plus a warning of further tightening, would back the GBP/USD long near 1.3440 and lift EUR/GBP-sensitive euro crosses. A hold, or a hike with a 6-3 split and soft guidance, would cancel it and give the dollar a lift.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USDJPY) | FXCM feed
USD/JPY Analysis: Price Slips Back Into the Triangle Under the 157.96 Average as Falling US Yields Favour the Yen
157.891 -0.520 (-0.33%) at about 06:50 GMT Previous close 158.411
Outlook: Bias is neutral to lower while price stays under 159.10. The breakout above the falling trendline failed to hold and the pair is back at 157.89 as Treasury yields fall; the 157.34 average is the first support.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 156.500
- Support 1
- 157.340
- Resistance 1
- 158.700
- Resistance 2
- 159.100
- Price (157.891) is under the 157.957 fast and 159.102 slow averages and just above the 157.338 medium average. Main catalyst: the dollar’s one-month low, the 10-year yield near 4.89% and the BoJ September minutes, which keep rate-hike bets alive.
- RSI 50.48 below its 50.78 average: flat and turning down. A 4-hour close under 157.34 opens 156.50; a close above 159.10 cancels the bearish view and exposes 160.00.
Setup: Short at 158.600, stop 159.400, targets 157.340, 156.500 and 155.500. Reward:risk 1.6 / 2.6 / 3.9, medium conviction. Cancel on a 4-hour close above 159.40, or if US claims and productivity at 13:30 GMT are strong enough to send the 10-year yield back above 4.95%. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar (AUDUSD) | OANDA feed
AUD/USD Analysis: Price Is Back Above 0.7000 but Sits Under the Falling Channel Top and the 0.7032 and 0.7053 Averages
0.70202 +0.00142 (+0.20%) at about 06:50 GMT Previous close 0.70060
Outlook: Bias is neutral while price stays between 0.6999 and 0.7053. The Aussie has recovered above 0.7000 on dollar weakness after the RBA’s hike to 4.85%, but the channel top near 0.7050 is a ceiling.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.69300
- Support 1
- 0.69700
- Resistance 1
- 0.70400
- Resistance 2
- 0.70800
- Price (0.70202) is above the 0.69991 fast average and under the 0.70315 medium and 0.70526 slow averages. Main catalyst: broad dollar weakness against slower Chinese services activity (PMI 50.8) in the Asian session.
- RSI 51.13 above its 50.38 average: neutral. A 4-hour close above 0.7053 opens 0.7080; a close under 0.6999 puts 0.6970 and the channel floor in play.
Setup: Short at 0.70500, stop 0.70950, targets 0.70000, 0.69500 and 0.69000. Reward:risk 1.1 / 2.2 / 3.3, low conviction. Cancel on a 4-hour close above 0.7095, or if the BoE-led dollar slide at 12:00 GMT lifts the pair through the channel top. Counter-trend idea, so size small. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Euro / US Dollar (EURUSD) | FXCM feed
EUR/USD Analysis: Price Rebounds From the Falling Channel Floor Toward the 1.1352 Average as Euro-Area Inflation Hits 4.0%
1.12627 +0.00350 (+0.31%) at about 06:50 GMT Previous close 1.12277
Outlook: Bias is higher while 1.1196 holds. The euro is up 0.31% on the day, helped by the dollar’s slide and October euro-area inflation at 4.0%, which keeps ECB tightening alive; the 1.1352 medium average is the first real test.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.11600
- Support 1
- 1.12000
- Resistance 1
- 1.13200
- Resistance 2
- 1.13520
- Price (1.12627) is above the 1.11959 fast average and under the 1.13523 medium and 1.14176 slow averages. Main catalyst: the BoE decision at 12:00 GMT, which moves the dollar, and euro-area PPI at 10:00 GMT.
- RSI 52.99 above its 39.95 average: improving. A 4-hour close above 1.1320 targets 1.1352; a close under 1.1196 puts the 1.1160 support and the channel floor back in play.
Setup: Long at 1.12150, stop 1.11500, targets 1.13100, 1.13520 and 1.14180. Reward:risk 1.5 / 2.1 / 3.1, medium conviction. Cancel on a 4-hour close below 1.1150, or if US claims and productivity at 13:30 GMT lift the dollar index back above 101.80. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
British Pound / US Dollar (GBPUSD) | FXCM feed
GBP/USD Analysis: Price Breaks the Falling Trendline and Trades at a Seven-Week High Into the 12:00 GMT Bank of England Decision
1.34940 +0.00238 (+0.18%) at about 06:50 GMT Previous close 1.34702
Outlook: Bias is higher while 1.3430 holds, but the BoE decides at 12:00 GMT and a 25bp hike to 4.00% is priced at roughly 94%. A hawkish vote and guidance are needed to extend the move; a dovish hike could reverse it.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.33800
- Support 1
- 1.34300
- Resistance 1
- 1.35200
- Resistance 2
- 1.35800
- Price (1.34940) is above the 1.33419 fast, 1.33647 medium and 1.33898 slow averages, which are bunched under the broken trendline. Main catalyst: the BoE vote split (Reuters poll 7-2), the new forecasts and Governor Bailey’s press conference at 12:30 GMT.
- RSI 66.02 above its 56.29 average: strong but nearing overbought. A 4-hour close above 1.3520 opens 1.3580; a close under 1.3430 puts the broken trendline and the 1.3380 support back in play.
Setup: Long at 1.34400, stop 1.33750, targets 1.35200, 1.35800 and 1.36800. Reward:risk 1.2 / 2.2 / 3.7, medium conviction. Cancel on a 4-hour close below 1.3375, a BoE hold at 3.75%, or a hike with a dovish vote split. Do not hold the order through 12:00 GMT without reassessing. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) | OANDA feed
USD/CAD Analysis: Price Sits on the Rising Trendline Under All Three Averages as the Oil Crash Fights the Dollar Slide
1.39462 -0.00316 (-0.23%) at about 06:50 GMT Previous close 1.39778
Outlook: Bias is lower while price stays under 1.4040, but it is a contested chart. A 0.23% fall puts the pair on the rising floor near 1.3945, with a weak dollar pushing it down and WTI near 88 dollars (down more than 8% yesterday) holding it up.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.38700
- Support 1
- 1.39200
- Resistance 1
- 1.40100
- Resistance 2
- 1.40750
- Price (1.39462) is under the 1.40746 fast, 1.40440 medium and 1.40405 slow averages. Main catalyst: crude, which is weak on Iran-diplomacy hopes, against a dollar index near its lowest since 30 September.
- RSI 35.93 below its 40.00 average: weak and near oversold. A 4-hour close under 1.3920 breaks the rising trendline and targets 1.3870; a close above 1.4075 cancels the bearish view.
Setup: Short at 1.40100, stop 1.40850, targets 1.39200, 1.38700 and 1.38000. Reward:risk 1.2 / 1.9 / 2.8, low conviction. Cancel on a 4-hour close above 1.4085, or if crude rebounds sharply on renewed Iran headlines. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USDCHF) | FXCM feed
USD/CHF Analysis: Price Breaks Below the Rising Channel Floor and the 0.8158 Slow Average, the Weakest Chart of the Six
0.81400 -0.00301 (-0.37%) at about 06:50 GMT Previous close 0.81701
Outlook: Bias is lower while price stays under 0.8158. USD/CHF is down 0.37%, the biggest daily fall of the six pairs, and has slipped through the rising channel floor that held since late July.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.80800
- Support 1
- 0.81200
- Resistance 1
- 0.81580
- Resistance 2
- 0.82280
- Price (0.81400) is under the 0.82535 fast, 0.82285 medium and 0.81576 slow averages, all of which now slope against the pair. Main catalyst: dollar weakness and falling yields, with Swiss unemployment at 08:00 GMT (3.1% expected).
- RSI 36.85 below its 46.78 average: falling toward oversold. A 4-hour close under 0.8120 targets 0.8080; a close back above 0.8158 puts the channel floor in play as resistance.
Setup: Short at 0.81650, stop 0.82150, targets 0.81000, 0.80500 and 0.79900. Reward:risk 1.3 / 2.3 / 3.5, medium conviction. Cancel on a 4-hour close above 0.8215, or if US claims and productivity at 13:30 GMT drive a sharp dollar rebound. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today. Cancel if unfilled by 21:00 GMT today.
Conclusion
The dollar slide is real but unconfirmed: EUR/USD needs a 4-hour close above 1.1352 and GBP/USD above 1.3520 before it becomes a trend. We prefer buying pullbacks in EUR/USD near 1.1215 and GBP/USD near 1.3440 at medium conviction, selling USD/JPY near 158.60 and USD/CHF near 0.8165 at medium conviction, and selling USD/CAD near 1.4010 and AUD/USD near 0.7050 at low conviction. The session risks are the BoE at 12:00 GMT, US claims and productivity at 13:30 GMT, Hammack and Barkin, the US equity open at 14:30 GMT and any reversal in crude. A 4-hour close above 102.00 in the dollar index would change the picture for all six.
Trade USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the forex outlook for today?
Dollar-negative but fragile. The dollar index is near 101.25, its lowest since 30 September, EUR/USD is 1.1263 and GBP/USD 1.3494. The BoE at 12:00 GMT and US claims at 13:30 GMT are the main scheduled tests.
Which forex trade ideas are live today?
Long EUR/USD and GBP/USD on pullbacks, and short USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF on rallies, each with a stop and three targets.
Why is the dollar falling today?
Democrats won both chambers of Congress, which cut expectations for fiscal expansion, while oil fell more than 8% and the 10-year yield eased to about 4.89%.
What does the Bank of England need to do to lift sterling?
A hike to 4.00% is about 94% priced, so sterling needs a vote of 7-2 or tighter and guidance that more tightening may be needed. A split of 6-3 with soft guidance would risk a reversal.
What time are the key events in GMT?
Swiss unemployment at 08:00 GMT, Norges Bank at 09:00 GMT, the Bank of England at 12:00 GMT with Bailey at 12:30 GMT, US claims, productivity and unit labour costs at 13:30 GMT, Hammack at 13:50 GMT, Barkin at 14:10 GMT and the US equity open at 14:30 GMT.
