DAX Holds Record Highs as Trump Calls Iran Talks a “Last Chance,” Oil Steadies Near $81 | Technical Analysis – Europe session | 04-08-2025
DAX Holds Record Highs as Trump Calls Iran Talks a “Last Chance,” Oil Steadies Near $81
EUR/USD · GBP/USD · Silver · Crude Oil · DAX 40 · Euro Bund 30Y · ETH/USD · XRP — live Frankfurt, London and Paris coverage through the European session
“Trump just told Tehran this is the last chance — and for now, oil markets are choosing to believe him. That’s the one less thing European equities suddenly have to worry about.”
European equities remain firmly in control of the narrative on Tuesday, with the DAX 40 holding just above Monday’s record close near 26,010 as crude’s sharp slide from a week ago continues to underpin regional risk appetite. Live wires overnight carried President Trump’s comments in the Oval Office that his latest offer of talks represents a “last chance” for Iran and that he expects the Strait of Hormuz to be fully open within days — language traders are reading as a genuine de-escalation signal on top of Monday’s OPEC+ supply increase. The retreat in energy costs is filtering directly into the rates complex, with German Bund yields easing from their multi-year highs even as the underlying case for further ECB tightening — a euro zone economy that grew 0.4% in the second quarter and factory output near a four-and-a-half-year high — remains largely intact.
Currency markets are comparatively subdued by contrast, with both EUR/USD and GBP/USD consolidating recent ranges as traders balance the growth-friendly signal from lower oil against the prospect that cooling inflation could eventually take some urgency out of the rate-hike case, while positioning cautiously into Friday’s US non-farm payrolls. Precious metals are the session’s other standout, with silver trading near $58.75–$58.90 and up more than 1.5% on the day, reflecting a combination of industrial demand, safe-haven positioning around lingering Middle East uncertainty, and technical momentum. Crypto markets are comparatively flat, with both ETH/USD and XRP consolidating within recent ranges as traders await clearer regulatory and macro catalysts, including any scheduling update on the CLARITY Act ahead of the Senate’s August recess.
European Session Headlines
The stories driving price action across Frankfurt, London and Paris trading hours
European Session Economic Calendar — 4 August 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through Frankfurt, London and Paris trading hours (local times as noted)
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸Overnight | Trump Calls Iran Talks “Last Chance,” Expects Hormuz to Reopen | Comments made in the Oval Office late Monday, US time | 🔴 CRITICAL | Reinforcing the de-escalation narrative that is keeping oil capped |
| 🇺🇸Overnight | Oil Steadies Near $81 After Monday’s Near-5% Slide | WTI near $81.00, Brent little changed near $84 a barrel | 🔴 CRITICAL | Primary driver of today’s risk-on tone across European equities |
| 🇩🇪Ongoing | DAX 40 Holds Record Ground Near 26,010 | Index holding Monday’s record close, up roughly 1.5% | 🔴 CRITICAL | Lower energy costs and strong earnings reinforcing regional risk appetite |
| 🇩🇪Ongoing | German Bund Yields Retreat From Multi-Year Highs | 30-year yield near 3.65%, down from recent cycle peaks | 🟢 MEDIUM | Cheaper oil trimming near-term inflation expectations |
| 🇪🇺Ongoing | ECB September Hike Pricing Holds Firm | Markets still lean toward a further 25bp move despite easing yields | 🟢 MEDIUM | Keeps EUR/USD supported on dips despite broader consolidation |
| 🇺🇸This week | US Payrolls Week Ahead of Friday’s NFP Release | JOLTS job openings and factory orders due Tuesday; ADP and ISM Services Wednesday | 🟢 MEDIUM | Keeping GBP/USD and EUR/USD in tight, cautious ranges into Friday |
| ∞Ongoing | Silver Extends Gains Toward $58.90 | Up more than 1.5% on the day; industrial and safe-haven demand both in play | 🟢 MEDIUM | Outperforming gold on dual demand drivers |
| ₿Ongoing | CLARITY Act Still Awaits Senate Floor Vote | XRP capped below $1.09 resistance just days before the Senate’s August recess | 🟢 MEDIUM | Regulatory clarity remains the key swing factor for XRP positioning |
European Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s eight key instruments
EUR/USD
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
EUR/USD is holding near 1.1513, consolidating just below last week’s highs as traders weigh a resilient euro zone growth picture — the bloc’s economy expanded 0.4% in the second quarter and factory output touched a four-and-a-half-year high in July — against the possibility that Monday’s sharp drop in oil prices could take some urgency out of the ECB’s rate-hike case.
Technical Outlook
The pair remains in a gentle corrective drift after failing to hold above 1.1550 earlier in the session. A failure to reclaim 1.1580 on rallies keeps the near-term bearish structure intact and exposes the 1.1420 zone; a push back above 1.1650 would risk a squeeze higher should the ECB’s rate-hike signals firm up further.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any fresh ECB commentary on the pace and timing of further tightening; (2) incoming German and euro zone services PMI revisions; (3) US labour-market data later in the week that could reprice Fed easing bets; (4) follow-through in oil prices, which remain the dominant cross-asset driver.
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GBP/USD
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
GBP/USD is trading near 1.3428 after sterling slipped on Monday even as the US dollar was broadly softer elsewhere, a divergence traders are linking to last week’s mixed UK PMI readings, which showed manufacturing undershooting expectations while services held up better. There is no fresh Bank of England signal to lean on this session.
Technical Outlook
The pair is fading from last week’s highs inside a shallow corrective channel. A failure to reclaim 1.3510 on rallies keeps the bearish structure intact and exposes the 1.3300 zone; a break back above 1.3600 would risk a squeeze higher should incoming UK data surprise to the upside.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any pre-positioning commentary from Bank of England officials; (2) revisions to UK services and construction PMI; (3) broader dollar direction tied to this week’s US labour-market data; (4) follow-through reaction in gilt yields relative to Bunds and Treasuries.
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Silver
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
Silver is trading near $58.90 an ounce, pressing toward its cycle highs as industrial demand from electronics and solar-panel manufacturing combines with lingering safe-haven flows tied to Middle East uncertainty. A softer US dollar backdrop, alongside falling real yields as oil-driven inflation expectations ease, is adding further support.
Technical Outlook
The metal is in a well-defined uptrend, having cleared a series of resistance levels on its push toward $59. A hold above the $56.50 buy-dip zone keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the $62.00 target; a break below $54.80 would risk a deeper corrective pullback should industrial demand data disappoint.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) fresh developments in Middle East diplomacy that could shift safe-haven positioning; (2) incoming US dollar direction tied to Fed rate-cut pricing; (3) solar and electronics-sector demand data out of China and Europe; (4) COMEX inventory and positioning data.
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Crude Oil (WTI)
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
WTI is trading near $81.00 (Brent near $84), steady after Monday’s near-5% plunge, its biggest one-day drop in a week, triggered when President Trump held off on a fresh strike on Iran to pursue a negotiated deal and OPEC+ approved a further production increase from September. Overnight, Trump told reporters his latest offer of talks is Tehran’s “last chance” and that he expects the Strait of Hormuz to fully reopen within days, reinforcing the de-escalation narrative. Falling US crude inventories and ongoing risk around Kazakhstan’s Caspian Pipeline Consortium exports are providing a partial floor.
Technical Outlook
The market is digesting Monday’s sharp downside gap within a wide $77.50–$84.00 range. A hold above the $77.50 zone keeps the broader consolidation intact and exposes a retest of $84.00; a break below $74.80 would risk a deeper slide should Iran-US talks progress further or OPEC+ signal additional supply.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any follow-through on Trump’s “last chance” comments and whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens as expected; (2) further OPEC+ commentary on the pace of supply normalisation; (3) developments around the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and Kazakh export flows; (4) weekly US API and EIA inventory data.
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DAX 40
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
The DAX 40 is trading near 26,050, extending Monday’s record close as tumbling oil prices ease cost pressures across the index’s industrial and consumer names. Siemens Healthineers surged after lifting full-year guidance, Infineon jumped more than 6% on a broader semiconductor rebound, and Deutsche Telekom rallied into its earnings release, reinforcing the session’s risk-on tone.
Technical Outlook
The index remains in a strong uptrend, having repeatedly cleared resistance on its way to fresh records. A hold above the 25,600 buy-dip zone keeps the bullish structure intact and exposes the 26,800 target; a break below 25,150 would risk a deeper corrective pullback should oil prices reverse higher or earnings disappoint.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) the remainder of this week’s heavy German corporate earnings calendar; (2) any reversal in crude oil that could pressure energy-cost sentiment; (3) incoming German factory orders and industrial production data; (4) broader European risk sentiment tied to US-Iran developments.
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Euro Bund 30Y
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
The German 30-year Bund yield is trading near 3.65%, retreating from levels last seen in 2011 as Monday’s sharp drop in oil prices trims near-term inflation expectations. The underlying case for further ECB tightening remains intact, however, with the euro zone economy growing 0.4% in the second quarter and money markets still largely pricing a further 25bp hike as soon as September.
Technical Outlook
Yields are pulling back from their recent highs within a broader uptrend that has been in place since April. A hold above the 3.55% support zone keeps the broader rising-yield structure intact and exposes a retest of 3.85%; a break below 3.40% would risk a deeper decline in yields should the ECB signal it is nearing the end of its tightening cycle.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any fresh ECB commentary on the September meeting; (2) further oil-price direction, which remains the dominant near-term driver of inflation expectations; (3) incoming German and euro zone inflation prints; (4) upcoming German Bund auction results.
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ETH/USD
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
ETH/USD is trading near $1,865, choppy within its recent $1,850–$1,930 range. Steady spot ETH ETF inflows continue to provide underlying institutional support, but ongoing uncertainty around US crypto regulatory legislation and the Federal Reserve’s tight policy stance are keeping a decisive breakout elusive for now.
Technical Outlook
The pair remains locked in a sideways consolidation after last week’s pullback from the $1,930 area. A hold above the $1,800 support zone keeps the broader range-bound structure intact and exposes a retest of $1,950; a break below $1,730 would risk a deeper slide toward the low end of the recent trading band.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) daily spot ETH ETF flow data; (2) any progress on US crypto market-structure legislation; (3) broader risk sentiment tied to this week’s US macro data; (4) on-chain activity and staking flow trends.
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XRP
Chart by TradingView
Fundamental Backdrop
XRP is trading near $1.065, still capped below the $1.09 resistance zone as the market awaits progress on the US Senate’s CLARITY Act ahead of its recess deadline. Recent headlines around an XRP Ledger upgrade and new institutional tokenization partnerships have offered only limited support against a broader bearish four-hour structure.
Technical Outlook
The pair remains pinned in a downward-biased structure below its EMA55, with the most recent structural break to the downside reinforcing the bearish tone. A failure to reclaim $1.09 on rallies keeps the bearish structure intact and exposes the $0.95 zone; a break above $1.15 would risk a squeeze higher should regulatory clarity arrive sooner than expected.
Session Catalysts
Watch for: (1) any scheduling update on the CLARITY Act Senate floor vote; (2) further details on Ripple’s tokenization and stablecoin partnerships; (3) broader crypto market risk sentiment tied to Bitcoin and Ethereum price action; (4) on-chain whale accumulation and exchange outflow data.
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European Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Why did oil prices fall sharply on Monday, and are they still falling?
Is the DAX 40’s record high sustainable?
Will the ECB still hike rates in September given falling oil prices?
What’s driving Silver’s outperformance versus Gold?
European Session Summary — Tuesday, 4 August 2026 (Live Update)
Tuesday’s European session is being shaped by the aftermath of Monday’s sharp reversal in oil prices, which fell nearly 5% after President Trump held off a fresh strike on Iran and OPEC+ approved a further output increase, and by fresh overnight comments in which Trump told reporters his latest offer of talks is Tehran’s “last chance” and that he expects the Strait of Hormuz to reopen fully within days. That de-escalation signal is flowing directly into equities, with the DAX 40 holding just above Monday’s record close near 26,010, powered by Siemens Healthineers’ raised guidance, a more-than-6% jump in Infineon on the global semiconductor rebound, and Deutsche Telekom’s rally into its earnings release. In FX, EUR/USD is consolidating near 1.1510 as traders weigh resilient euro zone growth data against the prospect that cheaper oil could take some urgency out of the ECB’s rate-hike case, while GBP/USD is holding near 1.3435–1.3440 with markets cautious ahead of a data-heavy US week culminating in Friday’s non-farm payrolls. Bond markets are following the same script, with Germany’s 30-year Bund yield easing to near 3.65% from its recent multi-year highs as lower energy costs trim near-term inflation expectations, even though a further ECB hike in September remains largely priced in. Commodities are diverging: Silver continues to press toward cycle highs near $58.75–$58.90 on combined industrial and safe-haven demand, up more than 1.5% on the day, while Crude Oil is steadying near $81 (Brent near $84) after Monday’s slide, still digesting the scale of the OPEC+ supply news alongside Trump’s overnight remarks. In digital assets, both ETH/USD and XRP are comparatively subdued, with ETH choppy near $1,865–$1,875 within its recent range and XRP soft near $1.06–$1.07 as the market awaits progress on the CLARITY Act, which still lacks a scheduled Senate floor vote just days before the chamber’s August recess. Highest-conviction session idea: buy DAX 40 dips toward 25,600, targeting 26,800 — the combination of tumbling energy costs and a strong German earnings season is a powerful multi-pronged tailwind for the index, though a reversal in oil prices or a batch of disappointing results are genuine sources of two-way risk.
For the individual instruments: EUR/USD sell rallies toward 1.1580, stop 1.1650, target 1.1420 — fading ECB rate-hike urgency on cheaper oil is a genuine headwind for the pair, though resilient euro zone growth data is a real source of two-way risk. GBP/USD sell rallies toward 1.3510, stop 1.3600, target 1.3300 — mixed UK PMI data and broader dollar dynamics are genuine headwinds, though a resilient services sector is a real source of two-way risk. Silver buy dips toward $56.50, stop $54.80, target $62.00 — dual industrial and safe-haven demand are powerful tailwinds, though a sharp reversal in safe-haven flows is a real source of two-way risk. Crude Oil is a two-way range between $77.50 and $84.00, watching for a decisive break — Iran de-escalation and OPEC+ supply are headwinds, while falling US inventories and Kazakh export risk are genuine tailwinds for a rebound. DAX 40 buy dips toward 25,600, stop 25,150, target 26,800 — lower energy costs and strong earnings are genuine tailwinds, though a reversal in oil prices is a real headwind. Euro Bund 30Y yields are a two-way range between 3.55% and 3.85% — easing oil-driven inflation expectations are a headwind for yields, while firm ECB hike pricing is a genuine tailwind for further gains. ETH/USD is a two-way range between $1,800 and $1,950 — steady ETF inflows are a tailwind, though regulatory uncertainty is a real source of two-way risk. XRP sell rallies toward $1.09, stop $1.15, target $0.95 — a bearish technical structure and stalled regulatory catalysts are headwinds, though a CLARITY Act breakthrough remains a genuine source of two-way risk. The decisive variables for the remainder of the session are any follow-through in oil prices, fresh ECB commentary ahead of September, the pace of Germany’s earnings season, and any scheduling update on the CLARITY Act Senate vote. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s backdrop carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply intraday.
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