Dollar Eases From an 18-Month High Before US CPI: EUR/USD Rebounds to 1.1206, GBP/USD Holds 1.3265 and USD/JPY Stalls at 158.26 | Technical Analysis – Forex Report | 14 Oct 2026
Daily Forex Report | Wednesday 14 October 2026
Dollar Eases From an 18-Month High Before US CPI: EUR/USD Rebounds to 1.1206, GBP/USD Holds 1.3265 and USD/JPY Stalls at 158.26
Market Overview
The US dollar is drifting lower into the key data release of the week. The US Dollar Index eased to about 102.1 on Wednesday 14 October, below Monday’s 18-month high of 102.37, as oil cooled and US yields slipped, with the 10-year near 5.2%. At 07:04 GMT EUR/USD was 1.12063 (+0.07%) after bouncing from lows near 1.1150, GBP/USD 1.32654 (+0.08%), AUD/JPY 110.819 (+0.24%) after Chinese data, USD/JPY 158.259 (−0.03%), USD/CAD 1.42080 (−0.06%) and USD/CHF 0.83233 (−0.02%).
US September CPI at 12:30 GMT is the main event. Consensus puts headline inflation at 3.6% y/y (prior 3.4%) and core near +0.2% m/m, with energy the main driver. Fed pricing stays hawkish: CME FedWatch shows about 79% odds of a hold on 28 October but about 89% for a December hike, and Fed officials Waller and Goolsbee have warned that AI-related demand is feeding inflation. Brent above $106 after Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Arabia keeps the energy risk alive.
Our positioning is long USD/JPY from 157.75, long AUD/JPY from 110.60, short EUR/USD from 1.1220, long GBP/USD from 1.3215, long USD/CAD from 1.4175 and long USD/CHF from 0.8290.
Key highlights
- US CPI (Sep) is due at 12:30 GMT; a core print at or above +0.3% m/m would lift December hike odds above 89% and push the dollar through its 102.37 high, pressuring EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
- USD/JPY at 158.259 sits on the 157.756 and 157.724 averages after a trendline break; intervention risk caps rallies, and swaps price about 10% for a BoJ hike this month and 88% by December.
- AUD/JPY at 110.819 (+0.24%) is above a broken falling trendline; Chinese exports and PPI beat while CPI missed, and the RBA’s September minutes were hawkish after a hike to 4.60%.
- EUR/USD at 1.12063 bounced from the lower channel line with RSI at 31.35; 1.1220 is strong resistance, ECB hike odds for 29 October are about 20%, and Lagarde speaks today.
- GBP/USD at 1.32654 holds a floor near 1.3200 for a 13th session; a November BoE hike is largely priced, but Pill doubts four hikes, and UK GDP is due Thursday.
- USD/CAD at 1.42080 is off its 18-month high of 1.4298; Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September, the BoC is on hold at 2.25% until 28 October, and WTI near $95 supports the loonie.
- USD/CHF at 0.83233 holds a rising channel above the 0.82927 average; the SNB rate is 0%, Swiss CPI was 1.0%, and UOB sees a 0.8245 to 0.8365 range.
Trade Setups for Today
Six setups for Wednesday 14 October 2026. Each carries a defined invalidation level: a 1-hour close beyond the stop negates the idea. Setups are valid for today’s session only, and all times are GMT.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Long | 157.75 | 157.10 | 159.40 | 160.00 | 2.5 / 3.5 | Medium |
| AUD/JPY | Long | 110.60 | 109.85 | 111.75 | 112.35 | 1.5 / 2.3 | Medium |
| EUR/USD | Short | 1.1220 | 1.1275 | 1.1150 | 1.1090 | 1.3 / 2.4 | Low |
| GBP/USD | Long | 1.3215 | 1.3150 | 1.3310 | 1.3395 | 1.5 / 2.8 | Low |
| USD/CAD | Long | 1.4175 | 1.4120 | 1.4260 | 1.4300 | 1.5 / 2.3 | Medium |
| USD/CHF | Long | 0.8290 | 0.8240 | 0.8345 | 0.8400 | 1.1 / 2.2 | Low |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to target 1 and target 2, divided by the distance from entry to the stop. USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF longs and the EUR/USD short are all dollar-long positions, while GBP/USD and AUD/JPY longs partly offset them, so treat the set as one correlated book rather than six independent trades. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Key Drivers Today
Ten data points and events set direction for the dollar, yen and commodity currencies today and this week. All times are GMT.
- US CPI (Sep)
- ~3.6% y/y
- Core +0.2% m/m expected; prior headline 3.4%
- Fed hike odds
- Dec ~89%
- Oct hold ~79%; Fed decides 28 Oct; Beige Book 18:00 GMT
- Dollar and yields
- DXY ~102.1
- 18-month high 102.37 on Mon; US 10Y ~5.2%
- Oil and Middle East
- Brent ~106
- WTI ~95; Houthi missile strikes on Saudi Arabia
- ECB speakers
- Lagarde, Elderson
- Oct hike odds ~20%; deposit rate 2.50%
- BoE speakers
- Bailey, Pill
- Four hikes priced over 12 months; Pill sceptical
- China data (Sep)
- CPI 0.9% y/y
- PPI 5.0%; trade surplus widened; lifts AUD
- Yen and BoJ
- BoJ ~10% Oct
- 88% by Dec; intervention warnings cap USD/JPY
- US PPI, retail sales
- Thu 15 Oct
- UK GDP (Aug) at 06:00 GMT the same day
- Fed Chair Warsh
- IMF speech
- BoC Macklem also speaks; Fed and BoC decide 28 Oct
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
US CPI Scenario Analysis
US CPI for September is due Wednesday 14 October at 12:30 GMT, with consensus at 3.6% y/y for the headline and about +0.2% m/m for core. Select a scenario to view the expected path for each pair, with levels.
Hot CPI: core at or above +0.3% m/m or headline above 3.7% y/y
A hotter print would lift December Fed hike odds above 89%, send the Dollar Index through 102.37 and push yields higher. That favours USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF and pressures EUR/USD, GBP/USD and the risk-sensitive AUD/JPY.
- USD/JPY159.40, then 160.00
- AUD/JPY110.00, then 109.20
- EUR/USD1.1150, then 1.1090
- GBP/USD1.3215, then 1.3150
- USD/CAD1.4300, then 1.4410
- USD/CHF0.8345, then 0.8400
Soft CPI: core at or below +0.2% m/m and headline at or below 3.6% y/y
An in-line or softer print would ease hike bets and yields, which lets the dollar fade further, lifts EUR/USD through 1.1220 and supports GBP/USD and AUD/JPY, while USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF slip toward their entry zones.
- USD/JPY157.75, then 157.10
- AUD/JPY111.75, then 112.35
- EUR/USD1.1275, then 1.1310
- GBP/USD1.3310, then 1.3395
- USD/CAD1.4120, then 1.4030
- USD/CHF0.8240, then 0.8185
US Dollar / Japanese Yen | USD/JPY
USD/JPY Analysis: Price Breaks the Falling Trendline and Holds 158.26 on the 157.7 Averages as Intervention Risk Caps the Upside
158.259 −0.045 (−0.03%) vs previous close Day range so far 158.113–158.516
Outlook: Bias is bullish above 157.72, with gains capped near 160 by intervention risk. USD/JPY traded at 158.259 at 07:04 GMT on Wednesday 14 October, down 0.03%, after breaking above a falling trendline and sitting on the averages that FXStreet describes as a contest with the 200-day SMA. Swaps price about 10% odds of a BoJ hike this month and 88% by December, so yen support is slow to arrive. The preferred approach is a pullback long at 157.75 with a stop at 157.10 and targets at 159.40 and 160.00, sized for medium conviction ahead of US CPI at 12:30 GMT.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 157.10
- Support 1
- 157.75
- Resistance 1
- 159.40
- Resistance 2
- 160.00
Daily chart structure
- Price breaks above a falling trendline drawn from the late-July high near 164.00, with a rising line from the early-September low near 152.90 underneath; the retest zone sits at 157.7 to 158.0.
- The averages at 157.756 and 157.724 sit just under price, while the 159.467 average caps the first rally leg. Tokyo was widely suspected of intervening in late April and early May, so moves toward 160 draw reversal risk.
- RSI reads 54.85, above its signal line at 53.39, a neutral to mildly positive reading. Japan’s next data are Machinery Orders and Industrial Production on 15 October.
USD/JPY trade setup
Long Medium conviction- Entry
- 157.75
- Stop loss
- 157.10
- Target 1
- 159.40
- Target 2
- 160.00
Risk 65 pips, or 0.41%. Reward:risk 2.5 to target 1, 3.5 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a pullback to the 157.75 area, where the 157.756 fast average, the 157.724 long average and the broken triangle line converge. The stop is below them at 157.10, under the lower triangle line, and the targets are the 159.40 area at the 159.467 average and the 160.00 round level where intervention risk rises.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close below 157.10. A soft US CPI print at 12:30 GMT, a Japanese intervention move, or a firmer BoJ hike signal is the main risk.
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen | AUD/JPY
AUD/JPY Analysis: Cross Rebounds 0.24% to 110.82 Above a Broken Trendline After Firm Chinese Trade Data
110.819 +0.263 (+0.24%) vs previous close Day range so far 110.519–110.865
Outlook: Bias is bullish above 110.60 while the break of the falling trendline holds. AUD/JPY traded at 110.819 at 07:04 GMT, up 0.24%, for a second day of gains as Chinese September data came in mixed but supportive: CPI rose 0.9% y/y (below the 1.0% forecast), PPI jumped to 5.0% (above 4.5%) and the trade surplus widened. The RBA hiked to 4.60% in late September and its minutes kept further tightening open. The preferred approach is a retest long at 110.60 with a stop at 109.85 and targets at 111.75 and 112.35, sized for medium conviction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 109.85
- Support 1
- 110.60
- Resistance 1
- 111.75
- Resistance 2
- 112.35
Daily chart structure
- Price broke above a falling trendline drawn from the late-August high near 115.00; the early-October low near 108.70, above the flat floor from the 1 August low, held.
- The fast average at 110.596 sits just under price, with the mid and long averages at 111.773 and 112.340 above as the first two resistance levels.
- RSI reads 49.82, above its signal line at 39.92 and turning up toward 50, an improving reading. Risk tone and US yields drive the cross, and AUD/USD is holding near 0.7000.
AUD/JPY trade setup
Long Medium conviction- Entry
- 110.60
- Stop loss
- 109.85
- Target 1
- 111.75
- Target 2
- 112.35
Risk 75 pips, or 0.68%. Reward:risk 1.5 to target 1, 2.3 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a retest of the 110.60 area, at the 110.596 fast average and the broken trendline. The stop is below the rebound base at 109.85, and the targets are the 111.75 area at the 111.773 mid average and the 112.35 area at the 112.340 long average.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close below 109.85. A hot US CPI print at 12:30 GMT that lifts yields and hits risk appetite, a hawkish BoJ shift, or weak Australian data is the main risk.
Euro / US Dollar | EUR/USD
EUR/USD Analysis: Oversold Rebound to 1.1206 Tests the 1.1220 Barrier Inside a Falling Channel
1.12063 +0.00081 (+0.07%) vs previous close Day range so far 1.11931–1.12113
Outlook: Bias is bearish below 1.1220, with RSI at 31.35 warning that the bounce can run first. EUR/USD traded at 1.12063 at 07:04 GMT, up 0.07%, after a rebound from lows near 1.1150 as the dollar slipped from its 18-month high. UOB flags 1.1220 as strong resistance; a break would signal the month-long decline has stabilised. French fiscal worries and about 20% odds of an ECB hike on 29 October cap the euro. The preferred approach is a rally short at 1.1220 with a stop at 1.1275 and targets at 1.1150 and 1.1090, sized for low conviction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.1090
- Support 1
- 1.1150
- Resistance 1
- 1.1220
- Resistance 2
- 1.1275
Daily chart structure
- Price trades inside a falling channel from the mid-June high near 1.1835; the upper line sits near 1.1620 and the lower line near 1.1120, which the recent low tested.
- The averages at 1.14811, 1.14782 and 1.13097 sit above price in bearish order; the 1.1276 high from 6 October is the level a short needs to hold under.
- RSI reads 31.35, above its signal line at 24.23 but near the oversold line, a recovering yet weak reading. ECB speakers including Lagarde are due today, and the euro-area deposit rate is 2.50%.
EUR/USD trade setup
Short Low conviction- Entry
- 1.1220
- Stop loss
- 1.1275
- Target 1
- 1.1150
- Target 2
- 1.1090
Risk 55 pips, or 0.49%. Reward:risk 1.3 to target 1, 2.4 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a rally into the 1.1220 area, at UOB’s strong resistance and the round-number zone. The stop is above the 6 October high at 1.1275, and the targets are the 1.1150 area of the recent low and the 1.1090 area near the May 2025 low and the channel floor.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close above 1.1275. A soft US CPI print at 12:30 GMT, a hawkish ECB message from Lagarde, or a calmer French bond market is the main risk.
British Pound / US Dollar | GBP/USD
GBP/USD Analysis: Pound Holds the 1.3200 Floor at 1.3265 as BoE Hike Bets Meet a Bearish Average Stack
1.32654 +0.00111 (+0.08%) vs previous close Day range so far 1.32403–1.32752
Outlook: Bias is neutral to bullish above 1.3200, but capped under the 1.3393 average. GBP/USD traded at 1.32654 at 07:04 GMT, up 0.08%, near the 1.3260 area as Bank of England Chief Economist Pill said he is a little sceptical of market pricing for four hikes over the next year, while a November hike is still largely priced. The pair has held a floor near 1.3200 for about 13 sessions, and speculators are net short the pound. The preferred approach is a dip long at 1.3215 with a stop at 1.3150 and targets at 1.3310 and 1.3395, sized for low conviction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.3150
- Support 1
- 1.3215
- Resistance 1
- 1.3310
- Resistance 2
- 1.3395
Daily chart structure
- Price broke below a rising channel drawn from the late-June low near 1.3140 in mid-September, then ranged between 1.3185 and 1.3310; the early-October low is the three-month low.
- The fast average at 1.32612 sits on price, with the mid and long averages at 1.34245 and 1.33930 above in bearish order and capping a larger recovery.
- RSI reads 44.76, above its signal line at 35.86, rising from the oversold area. UK GDP for August is due on 15 October, and BoE speakers Bailey and Pill are on today.
GBP/USD trade setup
Long Low conviction- Entry
- 1.3215
- Stop loss
- 1.3150
- Target 1
- 1.3310
- Target 2
- 1.3395
Risk 65 pips, or 0.49%. Reward:risk 1.5 to target 1, 2.8 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a dip to the 1.3215 area, above the 1.3200 floor that has held for 13 sessions and the three-month low near 1.3185. The stop is below that low at 1.3150, and the targets are the 1.3310 top of the range and the 1.3395 area at the 1.33930 long average.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close below 1.3150. A hot US CPI print at 12:30 GMT that lifts the dollar, or a dovish shift from BoE speakers, is the main risk.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar | USD/CAD
USD/CAD Analysis: Price Eases From the 18-Month High Toward the 1.4172 Fast Average as Oil Supports the Loonie
1.42080 −0.00079 (−0.06%) vs previous close Day range so far 1.41970–1.42220
Outlook: Bias is bullish above 1.4130, the base of the rising channel, as the pullback from the high cools overbought RSI. USD/CAD traded at 1.42080 at 07:04 GMT, down 0.06%, a day after easing from its 18-month high of 1.4298 set on 9 October. Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September and the Bank of Canada is on hold at 2.25% until 28 October, which keeps the loonie soft, while WTI near $95 limits the downside. The preferred approach is a pullback long at 1.4175 with a stop at 1.4120 and targets at 1.4260 and 1.4300, sized for medium conviction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1.4120
- Support 1
- 1.4175
- Resistance 1
- 1.4260
- Resistance 2
- 1.4300
Daily chart structure
- Price broke above a falling channel drawn from the late-June high near 1.4270 in mid-September and reached the 1.4298 high on 9 October; the broken upper line near 1.3880 is now deep support.
- The averages at 1.41721, 1.40291 and 1.39923 sit below price in bullish order; the first support is the 1.4170 fast average, then the channel base near 1.4130.
- RSI reads 59.57, below its signal line at 71.32, a cooling reading after an overbought run. The US to Canada 10-year yield gap near 1.3 percentage points favours the dollar.
USD/CAD trade setup
Long Medium conviction- Entry
- 1.4175
- Stop loss
- 1.4120
- Target 1
- 1.4260
- Target 2
- 1.4300
Risk 55 pips, or 0.39%. Reward:risk 1.5 to target 1, 2.3 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a pullback to the 1.4175 area, at the 1.41721 fast average and above the 1.4130 channel base. The stop is below that base at 1.4120, and the targets are the 1.4260 area of last week’s consolidation and the 1.4300 area at the 1.4298 high.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close below 1.4120. A soft US CPI print at 12:30 GMT, a further jump in oil, or hawkish Bank of Canada comments is the main risk.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc | USD/CHF
USD/CHF Analysis: Pair Holds a Rising Channel at 0.8323 Above the 0.8293 Average as the SNB Stays at Zero
0.83233 −0.00014 (−0.02%) vs previous close Day range so far 0.83168–0.83293
Outlook: Bias is bullish above 0.8290, the channel floor and fast average, with momentum cooling. USD/CHF traded at 0.83233 at 07:04 GMT, down 0.02%, inside a rising channel after a rejection at 0.8345 on 8 October. UOB sees a 0.8245 to 0.8365 range for one to three weeks. The SNB policy rate is 0% and Swiss September inflation was 1.0%, while French debt worries add franc haven demand. The preferred approach is a pullback long at 0.8290 with a stop at 0.8240 and targets at 0.8345 and 0.8400, sized for low conviction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 0.8240
- Support 1
- 0.8290
- Resistance 1
- 0.8345
- Resistance 2
- 0.8400
Daily chart structure
- Price trades inside a rising channel from the August low near 0.7970; the lower line sits near 0.8290 and the upper line near 0.8400, under the late-September high near 0.8385.
- The averages at 0.82927, 0.81755 and 0.81091 sit below price in bullish order; the fast average lines up with the channel floor, and the 2 October low near 0.8227 is the next support.
- RSI reads 60.28, below its signal line at 65.34, a cooling reading. SNB officials have hinted at lower-for-longer rates, which limits franc strength.
USD/CHF trade setup
Long Low conviction- Entry
- 0.8290
- Stop loss
- 0.8240
- Target 1
- 0.8345
- Target 2
- 0.8400
Risk 50 pips, or 0.60%. Reward:risk 1.1 to target 1, 2.2 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a pullback to the 0.8290 area, at the 0.82927 fast average and the lower channel line. The stop is below the 0.8245 range floor and the 0.8227 low at 0.8240, and the targets are the 0.8345 high of 8 October and the 0.8400 upper channel area.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close below 0.8240. A soft US CPI print at 12:30 GMT, a surge of safe-haven franc demand, or fresh SNB intervention rhetoric is the main risk.
Conclusion
US CPI at 12:30 GMT sets two paths. A hotter print favours USD/JPY at 159.40 then 160.00, USD/CAD at 1.4300 and USD/CHF at 0.8345, with EUR/USD at 1.1150, GBP/USD at 1.3215 and AUD/JPY at 110.00 under pressure. A softer print favours EUR/USD at 1.1275, GBP/USD at 1.3310 and AUD/JPY at 111.75. The USD/JPY, AUD/JPY and USD/CAD setups carry medium conviction; the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF setups carry low conviction.
Treat every level as conditional and wait for 1-hour closes beyond a stop before judging an idea invalid. Size positions smaller into the 12:30 GMT release, because oil above $100, Middle East headlines and yen intervention risk can gap pairs quickly. Our approach is to trade the levels, not the headlines.
Trade USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the USD/JPY outlook for 14 October 2026?
Bias is bullish above 157.72. USD/JPY is 158.259 after breaking a falling trendline, on the 157.756 and 157.724 averages, with RSI at 54.85. The setup is a medium-conviction pullback long at 157.75 with a stop at 157.10 and targets at 159.40 and 160.00. Intervention risk rises near 160.
What is the AUD/JPY outlook today?
Bias is bullish above 110.60. AUD/JPY is 110.819 above a broken falling trendline and the 110.596 fast average, with RSI at 49.82. The setup is a medium-conviction retest long at 110.60 with a stop at 109.85 and targets at 111.75 and 112.35.
What are the EUR/USD levels for 14 October 2026?
Bias is bearish below 1.1220. EUR/USD is 1.12063 near the floor of a falling channel, under the 1.14811, 1.14782 and 1.13097 averages, with RSI at 31.35. The setup is a low-conviction rally short at 1.1220 with a stop at 1.1275 and targets at 1.1150 and 1.1090.
What is the GBP/USD forecast today?
Bias is neutral to bullish above 1.3200. GBP/USD is 1.32654 on the fast average and under the 1.34245 and 1.33930 averages, with RSI at 44.76. The setup is a low-conviction dip long at 1.3215 with a stop at 1.3150 and targets at 1.3310 and 1.3395.
What are the USD/CAD levels today?
Bias is bullish above 1.4130. USD/CAD is 1.42080 after an 18-month high of 1.4298, above the 1.41721, 1.40291 and 1.39923 averages, with RSI at 59.57. The setup is a medium-conviction pullback long at 1.4175 with a stop at 1.4120 and targets at 1.4260 and 1.4300.
What is the USD/CHF outlook for 14 October 2026?
Bias is bullish above 0.8290. USD/CHF is 0.83233 inside a rising channel above the 0.82927, 0.81755 and 0.81091 averages, with RSI at 60.28. The setup is a low-conviction pullback long at 0.8290 with a stop at 0.8240 and targets at 0.8345 and 0.8400.
Why is the US dollar easing on 14 October 2026?
The US Dollar Index slipped to about 102.1 from Monday’s 18-month high of 102.37 as oil eased and US yields dipped ahead of CPI. Fed hike pricing for December is still near 89%, so the dollar retains a bullish undertone.
What time is US CPI released in GMT?
US September CPI is due Wednesday 14 October at 12:30 GMT (8:30 ET). Consensus is 3.6% y/y for the headline, up from 3.4%, with core near +0.2% m/m. US PPI and retail sales follow on Thursday 15 October at 12:30 GMT.
