European Session Report: Euro Sinks to 17-Month Low on French Fiscal Stress, While FTSE 100 Holds Flat as Silver Rebounds | Technical Analysis – European Session | 05-10-2026
European Session Report: Euro Sinks to 17-Month Low on French Fiscal Stress, While FTSE 100 Holds Flat as Silver Rebounds
European stocks opened mixed on Monday as the euro sank to a 17-month low near 1.1161 on French fiscal contagion fears and reports of an early Spanish election. The FTSE 100 is edging higher near 10,482, the CAC 40 is down about 0.9% and EUR/USD trades near 1.1210.
GBP/USD is 1.3234, silver $61.52, WTI $91.11, Ethereum $2,714 and Solana $120.97. French 10-year yield is 4.918%. Focus: US ISM services at 14:00 GMT, Fed minutes on Wednesday, French bond spreads and Gulf oil headlines.
Prices updated to live Investing.com quotes supplied for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, FTSE 100, Crude Oil, Silver, ETH/USD and Solana; France 10Y per supplied chartTop Stories Moving the Market
Euro hits lowest since May 2025
Fell to 1.1161 in Asia after four weekly losses; French 10-year spread over Bunds is near 140bp and reports of an early Spanish election add pressure.
London flat as BT and National Grid offset banks
BT buys TalkTalk assets for about £400m, National Grid lifts EPS guidance; HSBC and Lloyds slip with gilt yields near 5.37%.
Paris lags as France contagion fears bite
DAX 25,215 is flat and Euro Stoxx 50 6,221 is -0.3%; Schneider Electric falls about 7% on its $22.6bn PTC deal.
Sterling steady as dollar bid eases
BoE hike bets and a 5.37% 10-year gilt yield limit losses; UK final services PMI is due 08:30 GMT after a flash 51.7.
Oil steadies as G7 release meets Gulf risks
G7 releases 100m barrels and Aramco cuts Asia prices to six-year lows, but UKMTO still reports daily tanker attacks. Brent was near $101.4 earlier.
Silver bounces from the $60 support band
Softer US jobs data cooled Fed hike odds; gold futures are near $4,183. Silver is still far below the $71.16 swing high.
Fed hike bets fade, yields stay high
CME FedWatch shows 78% odds of an October hold, with a December hike still priced. US 10-year is near 5.25%; ISM services follows at 14:00 GMT.
Ether and Solana hold gains as Bitcoin stalls
Solana is near $121.0 on record spot ETF inflows; Bitcoin is near $86.3K after failing again below $87K.
Technical Summary & Trade Ideas
EUR/USD
FX · French fiscal stress and Spanish election riskEUR/USD touched 1.1161, its weakest since May 2025, as hedge funds sold in Asia and triggered option barriers, per Bloomberg. French bond futures sit near record lows, the French premium over Bunds is about 140bp and a snap Spanish election is reported. Final eurozone composite PMI of 53.1 and services at 53.0 gave no lift. Pepperstone warns against fading the move; ECB’s Lane flags growth risks. Dollar index is near 102.4. All levels are conditional.
| Last1.1210 |
| Support1.1161 / 1.1100 |
| Resistance1.1250 / 1.1300 |
| DXY~102.4 |
France 10Y Yield
Bonds · OAT yield at multi-year highs on fiscal stressThe French 10-year yield is 4.918%, up 1.16% and testing the 5% area after climbing inside a steep rising channel since late August. Reuters notes the premium over Bunds ended last week near 140bp, its biggest weekly jump in 17 years, and French bond futures sit close to record lows. Daily RSI near 76.6 is overbought, so a pause is possible, but the 20-day average near 4.60% is far below. A close above 5.00% would deepen contagion fears for the euro and CAC 40. Levels are conditional.
| Last4.918% |
| Support4.800% / 4.604% |
| Resistance5.000% / 5.100% |
| Spread to Bund~140bp (Fri) |
GBP/USD
FX · Sterling holds up better than the euroSterling is steady near 1.3234 as the dollar bid eases, and it gained 0.3% against the euro. FXStreet notes the pair holds below its short-term EMAs with RSI near 35, while BoE officials have hinted at further hikes on energy-driven inflation. UK 2-year gilts yield about 4.81% and 10-year 5.37%. The final services PMI at 08:30 GMT follows a flash 51.7, and Chancellor Healey’s first budget is due next month. US ISM services at 14:00 GMT is the next test.
| Last1.3234 |
| Support1.3150 / 1.3100 |
| Resistance1.3255 / 1.3300 |
| UK 10Y gilt~5.37% |
Silver (XAG/USD)
Metals · Bounce after payrolls miss and Friday reversalSilver spiked to $62.09 on Friday’s payrolls miss, settled near $60.37 as yields reversed, and is rebounding in Europe. Investing.com’s levels show a Fibonacci support band at $61.17-$60.00 and a no-trade pocket up to $63.12; the downtrend from $71.16 stays intact until that clears. Gold futures near $4,183 are rising. Treasury yields near 5.25% and a firm dollar remain the main brakes.
| Last$61.52 |
| Support60.00 / 59.70 |
| Resistance62.09 / 63.12 |
| Swing high71.16 |
Crude Oil (WTI)
Energy · G7 stock release meets Gulf attack riskWTI is steady near $91 after Friday’s slide as the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels, Kpler data showed Gulf exports above pre-war levels on four of seven days, and Aramco cut Asian prices to six-year lows. Offsetting that, UKMTO reports at least one tanker attack daily since Oct 2, the Houthis claim strikes on Aramco sites and Iran says Hormuz flows are ‘negligible’. ING sees the gasoil crack easing to about $70. Headlines can reverse these levels quickly.
| Last$91.11 |
| Support88.06 / 86.00 |
| Resistance92.00 / 95.00 |
| Brent~$101.4 earlier |
FTSE 100
Indices · Defensives lift London, banks lagLondon is flat while Paris falls about 0.9%. BT rose 1.8% after buying TalkTalk and PlatformX out of administration, National Grid rose 0.9% on stronger guidance and Ithaca gained 2.1% on its $1.11bn Suncor deal. HSBC (-0.75%) and Lloyds (-0.53%) lag with gilt yields elevated. Goldman initiates Burberry at Neutral. A break above 10,520 needs a calmer euro-zone bond market; below 10,420 targets 10,350.
| Last10,482 |
| Support10,420 / 10,350 |
| Resistance10,520 / 10,600 |
| DAX25,215 |
ETH/USD
Crypto · Holding $2,700 as Bitcoin stallsEther trades near $2,714 after beating Bitcoin in Q3, though CoinGecko data cited by CoinDesk shows liquidity thinned. Crypto Briefing reports the unstaking queue has jumped 392% since the start of October, a possible supply overhang. The SEC clearing the first 3x leveraged crypto ETPs and the Fed-hike retreat help risk appetite, while Bitcoin has failed twice below $87K. Levels are conditional.
| Last$2,714 |
| Support2,650 / 2,550 |
| Resistance2,800 / 2,900 |
| All-time high4,946 |
Solana (SOL/USD)
Crypto · Record ETF inflows keep $125 in viewSOL trades above $120 after US spot Solana ETFs logged a record $188M weekly inflow, with Bitwise’s BSOL taking about $128M. The upgrade narrative (Alpenglow, 150ms finality) adds support. Price is above its 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day EMAs, with the 20-day near $112.54. A close above $125 would open higher; losing $116.50-$116.90 would expose the 20-day EMA.
| Last$120.97 |
| Support116.80 / 112.50 |
| Resistance122.57 / 125.00 |
| ETF flows$188M wk |
What to Expect from the Next Session
- US ISM services at 14:00 GMT. A strong print after the 58.4 flash composite could revive hike bets and push EUR/USD toward 1.1100 and silver toward $60; a miss supports 1.1250, GBP/USD 1.3255 and crypto.
- French bonds and Spanish politics. A wider OAT-Bund spread or a confirmed Spanish snap election would keep EUR/USD under pressure and weigh on the CAC 40; any ECB signal of support would trigger a squeeze.
- Fed minutes on Wednesday and the Gulf. A hawkish tone pressures Ether below $2,650 and Solana below $116.80; Hormuz, Houthi and G7 stock-release headlines drive WTI around $88-92 and the FTSE’s energy names.
What Is Moving the Market
Euro and French debt
The French 10-year premium over Germany ended last week near 140bp, its biggest weekly jump in 17 years, and the euro has fallen four straight weeks. Spanish election reports add to the strain.
Dollar and yields
The dollar index is near 102.4 and the US 10-year near 5.25%. Weak payrolls cut October hike odds to about 22%, but a December hike is still priced.
Oil and the Gulf
Brent near $101 eases on the G7 release and Gulf export recovery, but tanker attacks and Iran’s Hormuz stance keep risk premiums in place.
UK and crypto
Gilt yields near 5.4% and BoE hike bets support sterling, while record Solana ETF inflows and Fed-hike relief hold crypto bid.
Economic Calendar / Events
| Time | Country | Event | Result / Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 12:30 GMT | US | Non-farm payrolls (Sep) | +29K vs ~90K; Fed hike odds cut |
| Today 08:00 GMT | EZ/DE | Final composite and services PMIs (Sep) | EZ 53.1 / 53.0; Germany composite 53.8 |
| Today 08:30 GMT | UK | Final services PMI (Sep) | Flash 51.7; prices rising |
| Today | EZ | Sentix investor confidence (Oct) | Tests euro sentiment after French rout |
| Today 14:00 GMT | US | ISM services PMI (Sep) | After flash composite of 58.4 |
| Wed 7 Oct 18:00 GMT | US | FOMC minutes (Sep) | Tests the ‘one more hike’ guidance |
| Fri 9 Oct | CN/CA/US | China CPI, Canada jobs, UMich | Growth and inflation read |
| Next month | UK | Chancellor Healey’s first budget | Gilt and sterling risk |
Summary
Europe is cautious: the euro hit a 17-month low on French and Spanish political stress while soft US jobs data only partly eased dollar strength. The FTSE 100 sits near 10,482, EUR/USD near 1.1210, GBP/USD near 1.3234, silver near $61.52, WTI near $91.11, ETH near $2,714 and SOL near $120.97. ISM services and Wednesday’s Fed minutes are the next major tests.
FAQ
Q:Why is the euro falling despite soft US jobs data?
A:French fiscal stress, Spanish election reports and a firm dollar on 5%+ Treasury yields outweigh the drop in October Fed hike odds.
Q:What are the key levels today?
A:EUR/USD 1.1161/1.1250, GBP/USD 1.3150/1.3255, silver $60.00/$63.12, WTI $88.06/$92.00, FTSE 100 10,420/10,520, ETH $2,650/$2,800, SOL $116.80/$125, France 10Y 4.80%/5.00%. These are conditional references, not forecasts.
