European Session Report: Stocks Slip as Q4 Opens, FTSE Sheds Over 1% With Brent Near $100, and the Euro Breaks Its Summer Lows | 01-10-2026
European Session Report: Stocks Slip as Q4 Opens, FTSE Sheds Over 1% With Brent Near $100, and the Euro Breaks Its Summer Lows
European stocks opened the fourth quarter lower on Thursday as stalled US-Iran talks, hotter eurozone inflation prints and elevated yields outweighed relief from a cooler US PCE. The STOXX 600, DAX and CAC 40 lost about 0.6%, while the FTSE 100 fell more than 1%. EUR/USD slid to about 1.1288 and GBP/USD to 1.3215 as the dollar stayed bid.
WTI trades near $92.78 and Brent near $99.50, the UK 10-year gilt yields about 5.48% and the US 10-year 5.34%. Silver is near $60.4, Ether near $2,683 and Solana near $117.9. Focus: US ISM, Fed speakers and Friday’s payrolls.
Snapshot: European session, 1 October 2026 (~07:00-09:00 GMT / 12:30-14:30 IST; instrument prices as shown on the TradingView daily charts, ~14:25 IST; other data from cited sources)Top Stories Moving the Market
Q4 opens on the back foot as energy inflation bites
STOXX 600, DAX and CAC 40 each lost about 0.6% early on, with the DAX near 24,960 (prior close 25,199). The STOXX 600 ended September down roughly 2.5%, its worst month since March.
FTSE 100 lags as banks and oil majors slide
The FTSE 100 trades near 10,421 against Wednesday’s 10,606 close. HSBC is off about 2.3%, Barclays 1.7%, Shell 1.4% and AstraZeneca 1.9%; only Rolls-Royce is higher.
Euro breaks 1.1312 support on stagflation worries
The pair is trading near 1.129 after breaching its summer lows. French CPI hit 3.0%, Italy 4.2% and Germany’s September rate is seen near 3.1-3.2%, but the dollar’s yield advantage is driving the move.
Sterling slips below 1.3250 near a three-month low
Cable is down about 2% in September as markets expect the Fed to tighten before the BoE (next move seen in November). Stronger UK Q2 GDP offers limited support.
Oil firm as US-Iran talks stay stalled
Brent trades near $99.50 and WTI near $92.78, extending a sharp September surge. The seven-month Middle East conflict and Hormuz supply risk keep an inflation premium in Europe.
Silver slips below triangle support while gold holds near $4,200
Silver trades near $60.38, just under its prior close of $60.43; gold is near $4,203. Rising real yields cap rallies and silver has broken lower out of its daily triangle.
Global yields push higher again
The UK 10-year gilt yields about 5.48%, the Bund 3.62% and the US 10-year 5.34% (+2.7bp). Soft US PCE has not eased the long-end sell-off.
Ether range-bound; Solana holds near $118 on ETF inflows
ETH sits inside a $2,620-$2,780 range with open interest at its lowest since March. SOL trades near $117.9 after record $188M weekly spot-ETF inflows.
Technical Summary
EUR/USD
FX · Euro under pressure after losing its summer lows
EUR/USD broke its summer lows near 1.1325 and is now probing 1.1287. A daily close under that opens the 127.2% Fibonacci extension at 1.1220. Eurozone inflation (France 3.0%, Italy 4.2%) deepens the stagflation trade-off for the ECB, but dollar strength is the main driver. Reclaiming 1.1325-1.1360 would ease pressure.
| Last1.1288 |
| Day low1.1287 |
| Month change-2.35% |
| ECB / FedOct 29 / Oct 28 |
GBP/USD
FX · Sterling near three-month low
Cable slipped below 1.3250 and is leaning on 1.3205. A break there exposes 1.3171 and 1.3141. Fed-hike pricing and an oil-driven bid for the dollar outweigh the upgrade to UK Q2 GDP; the BoE is not expected to move before November. A recovery above 1.3290 would neutralise the slide.
| Last1.3215 |
| Support1.3205 / 1.3171 |
| Resistance1.3250 / 1.3290 |
| BoE nextNovember |
Silver (XAG/USD)
Metals · Softer near $60 as yields stay high
Silver is trading near $60.38, below $60.50 after slipping out of its daily triangle, while gold sits near $4,200. A close below $59.97 would put $59.50 in play; reclaiming $60.50 and then $62.00 would ease pressure. Higher Treasury and gilt yields remain the main headwind.
| Last$60.38 |
| Prior close$60.43 |
| Gold$4,202.70 |
| US 10Y5.34% |
Crude Oil (WTI)
Energy · Stalled US-Iran talks keep a premium
WTI rebounds about 2.7% to $92.78 with Brent near $99.50. Support sits at $90.00 then $88.50; resistance at $93.00 and $95.00. A US-Iran breakthrough would unwind the premium fast, while a breakdown in talks would extend it.
| WTI$92.78 |
| Brent~$99.50 |
| Support$90 / $88.5 |
| Resistance$93 / $95 |
FTSE 100
Indices · Opens October with a gap lower
The FTSE 100 gapped lower as banks, energy majors and pharma slid and yields jumped. Wednesday’s 10,606 close is now resistance. Holding 10,391 would limit damage; a break opens 10,300. UK PMI and US ISM are the next catalysts.
| Last10,421 |
| Prior close10,606 |
| DAX~24,960 |
| STOXX 600 close634.89 |
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Crypto · Consolidating in a narrow range
ETH is stuck between $2,620 and $2,780 and still holds above its 200-day EMA. Open interest has fallen to its lowest since March, so leverage is light. A close above $2,780 targets $3,000; losing $2,620 exposes $2,550.
| Last$2,683 |
| Range2,620-2,780 |
| TrendAbove 200-day EMA |
| Open interestLowest since Mar |
Solana (SOL/USD)
Crypto · Holding near $118 on record ETF inflows
SOL has built higher lows from roughly $75 in August and is trading just below $120. Spot ETFs logged a record $188M weekly inflow, and Alpenglow is live on test networks. A close above $125 targets $150; below $110 the structure weakens.
| Last$117.87 |
| Support$110 / $105 |
| Resistance$122 / $125 |
| ETF inflow (wk)$188M |
What to Expect from the Next Session
- US ISM manufacturing and Fed speakers. Data and Fed talk test October-hike pricing and the 5.3% 10-year yield; hot data would pressure EUR/USD, GBP/USD, silver and crypto.
- US payrolls on Friday. The key risk event for the dollar and yields; a strong print would push EUR/USD toward 1.1220.
- Iran and Hormuz headlines. Stalled talks keep Brent near $100; a deal would pull oil and yields lower, a breakdown would extend the dollar rally.
- Eurozone inflation and the ECB. After France at 3.0% and Italy at 4.2%, further upside surprises raise the odds the ECB stays restrictive ahead of its 29 October meeting.
What Is Moving the Market
Energy-driven inflation
September flash CPI jumped in France, Italy and Spain on fuel and gas costs, reviving stagflation fears and raising odds of a prolonged restrictive ECB.
Yields and the dollar
Long-dated yields keep climbing (gilts 5.48%, Bunds 3.62%, US 5.34%), supporting the dollar and weighing on the euro, sterling, banks and metals.
Stalled US-Iran talks
The seven-month conflict and Hormuz risk keep Brent near $100, hitting European consumers and lifting energy-linked inflation expectations.
Crypto flows
Record Solana ETF inflows support SOL near $118, while Ether consolidates with leverage at multi-month lows.
Economic Calendar / Events
| Time | Country | Event | Result / Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep | FR | CPI flash (Sep) | 3.0% y/y, above expectations |
| 30 Sep | IT | CPI flash (Sep) | 4.2% y/y vs 3.8% expected (prev 3.3%) |
| 30 Sep | DE | Unemployment change (Sep) | -67K; total just under 3 million |
| 30 Sep | UK | GDP (Q2, final) | Revised up; GBP briefly firmer |
| 30 Sep | US | Core PCE (Aug) | Cooler than expected |
| Today | US | ISM Manufacturing; Fed speakers | Watch hike pricing |
| Fri | US | Non-farm payrolls (Sep) | Key dollar and yield catalyst |
| 28-29 Oct | US / EU | Fed and ECB decisions; BoE in November | Policy gap drives EUR/GBP vs USD |
Summary
Europe starts Q4 under pressure: the STOXX 600 and DAX are down about 0.6%, the FTSE 100 is near 10,421, EUR/USD near 1.1288 and GBP/USD near 1.3215. WTI is near $92.78, silver near $60.38, Ether near $2,683 and Solana near $117.87. Watch US ISM, Friday’s payrolls and US-Iran headlines.
FAQ
Q:Why is EUR/USD falling?
A:The pair broke its summer lows near 1.1325 as high US yields and Fed-hike bets lift the dollar, while eurozone inflation fuels stagflation worries.
Q:Why is the FTSE 100 weaker than the STOXX 600?
A:Banks, oil majors and pharma are all lower and yields rose sharply, so the FTSE’s fall (-1.74%) is larger than the roughly 0.6% decline in the STOXX 600.
Q:What are the key levels today?
A:EUR/USD 1.1287/1.1325, GBP/USD 1.3205/1.3250, silver $60.50/$62, WTI $90/$93, FTSE 10,391/10,606, ETH $2,620/$2,780, SOL $110/$125. These are conditional references, not forecasts.
