Capital Street FX · Session Report · Monday 20 April 2026
European & U.S. Session Report — April 20, 2026
WTI crude settles +6% at $87.56 as oil pares from $90.40 highs · S&P 500 closes 7,083 (−0.61%) — holds above 7,022 ATH floor · Gold recovers from $4,752 session low to $4,805 · Vance delegation arrives Islamabad for Round 2 talks · Setups 02 (Gold) and 04 (GBP/USD) triggered intraday
📅 Monday, April 20, 2026
🕔 Session Close: 21:00 GMT
✍️ CSFX Research Desk
📍 capitalstreetfx.com
Session Overview — Dual Report
Today’s sessions were defined by one overriding dynamic: markets opened in shock from the TOUSKA seizure, but steadily absorbed the news as the Vance delegation’s arrival in Islamabad kept diplomatic hope alive. The critical phrase from market participants: “net negative but still deescalation trajectory.” WTI surged to $90.40 at the Asian open then gave back gains all session; equities opened sharply lower but clawed back over half their losses. Every major setup from the morning briefing saw price action at or near entry zones today.
🇪🇺
European Session — Shock Absorption
DAX opened −1.2%, recovered to −0.5%. Oil pared from highs. Gold hit $4,752 — Setup 02 triggered. GBP/USD tested 1.3490 — Setup 04 triggered.
🇺🇸
U.S. Session — Contained Selloff
S&P 500 opened −0.6%, tested Setup 05 entry zone at 7,060, closed 7,083 (−0.61%). WTI settled $87.56. Trump: Islamabad talks “going very well.”
⚡
Critical Wednesday Binary Intact
Ceasefire still expires April 23. Round 2 talks underway in Pakistan. Outcome Wednesday = defining market event of the week.
📅
Tuesday April 21 — 3M Earnings + Retail Sales
3M (MMM) Q1 results pre-market (est. $2.02 EPS). US Retail Sales March at 12:30 GMT (est. +0.1%). Iran talks continue in Islamabad.
⚠️
Position sizing reminder: Wednesday April 23 ceasefire expiry + Tesla earnings remain the week’s defining binary. Maintain 50% position sizing on all new entries until Wednesday outcome is known. Today’s session confirmed: markets are not fully pricing a breakdown scenario — but they are not fully pricing resolution either.
📊
Session Close Snapshot — Monday April 20, 2026
Full-Day Settlement — European & U.S. Session Close
21:00 GMT · CSFX Research Desk
| Asset |
Session Close |
Day Change |
Session High / Low |
Close Bias |
| WTI Crude (May) | $87.56 | +6.02% | H: $90.40 · L: $87.20 | BULL · OFF HIGHS |
| Brent Crude | $95.48 | +5.64% | H: $96.88 · L: $94.10 | BULLISH |
| Natural Gas (EU) | +8.4% | Elevated | Pared from +11% AM spike | ELEVATED |
| S&P 500 | 7,083 | −0.61% | H: 7,110 · L: 7,058 | HOLDS 7,022 ATH |
| Nasdaq Composite | 24,371 | −0.40% | H: 24,510 · L: 24,290 | CAUTION |
| Dow Jones | 49,350 | −0.20% | Energy offsets broad drag | MIXED |
| DAX 40 | 22,150 | −0.52% | Opened −1.2%, recovered | PARTIAL RECOVERY |
| FTSE 100 | 8,820 | −0.18% | Energy stocks buffered losses | RESILIENT |
| EUR/USD | 1.1795 | +0.02% | H: 1.1810 · L: 1.1765 | BEARISH ST · HELD |
| GBP/USD | 1.3515 | −0.21% | H: 1.3548 · L: 1.3490 ✓ENTRY | SETUP 04 TRIGGERED |
| USD/JPY | 158.80 | +0.30% | H: 159.20 · L: 158.22 | WATCH 160 KEY |
| XAU/USD — Gold | $4,805 | +0.63% | H: $4,833 · L: $4,752 ✓ENTRY | SETUP 02 TRIGGERED |
| BTC/USD | $74,110 | −0.30% | H: $74,800 · L: $73,550 | RESILIENT · BULL |
| DXY | 98.50 | −0.12% | H: 98.72 · L: 98.18 | FADING STRENGTH |
| US 10Y Yield | 4.31% | +9bps | H: 4.34% · L: 4.28% | ELEVATED · WATCH 4.35% |
🇪🇺
European Session Recap — 07:00–12:00 GMT
🇪🇺
European Session
MON 20 APR 2026 · 07:00–12:00 GMT · LONDON / FRANKFURT / PARIS
⚠ RISK-OFF OPEN → PARTIAL RECOVERY
DAX Open
22,050
−1.2% Gap Down
DAX Close
22,150
−0.52% Recovered
WTI AM High
$90.40
Session peak 08:14 GMT
Gold AM Low
$4,752
Setup 02 Entry ✓
European Session Headlines — Chronological
07:05European equity markets open sharply lower — DAX gap down −1.2%, CAC 40 −0.9%, FTSE 100 −0.4% as TOUSKA seizure ripples into European trade. Energy stocks surge, offsetting broader weakness.
07:18WTI crude hits European session peak at $90.40 — Brent touches $96.88. European natural gas futures hold +8–10% as EU energy importers reprice supply disruption risk.
07:55Gold dips to $4,752 — Tests Setup 02 entry zone ($4,740–$4,760). DXY intraday high at 98.72 pressing gold lower. Bull flag structure intact on H4.
08:10GBP/USD drops to 1.3490 — Setup 04 entry zone (1.3480–1.3510) triggered. UK energy exposure weighs sterling, but hot CPI (3.1%) and BoE repricing provide fundamental floor.
09:30White House confirms Vance delegation departed for Islamabad — Witkoff and Kushner travelling with Vance for Round 2 US–Iran talks. Markets partially recover on diplomatic signal.
10:15Oil pares session highs — WTI retreats to $88.50 as ceasefire optimism partially offsets TOUSKA shock. Brent eases to $95.20. DAX recovers from −1.2% to −0.7%.
11:00Iran FM Araghchi: “Washington must show seriousness on nuclear issue” — Cautionary headlines temper the recovery rally. EUR/USD holds 1.1770–1.1810 range as FX markets wait for US open.
11:45European session closes — DAX −0.52%, CAC 40 −0.38%, FTSE 100 −0.18%. Gold recovered to $4,785 from $4,752 low. GBP/USD stabilised at 1.3500. WTI at $88.60.
European markets opened with a genuine shock gap, but the session ultimately told a story of resilience. The initial −1.2% DAX gap reflected the TOUSKA military escalation. But the recovery — despite no immediate diplomatic breakthrough — came from two sources: the confirmed departure of the Vance delegation for Islamabad, and the structural reality that Hormuz closure had already been priced into commodities to a significant degree. Energy stocks (BP, Shell, TotalEnergies) surged 2–3%, significantly buffering headline index losses in London and Paris. The FTSE 100 outperformed European peers precisely because of this energy-heavy composition.
The standout technical development of the European session was gold’s test of the Setup 02 entry zone. The $4,752 intraday print perfectly touched the H4 bull flag lower boundary identified in the morning briefing. The DXY peaked at 98.72 around 08:10 GMT, pressed gold to $4,752, and then reversed — DXY faded to 98.18 as the Vance confirmation came through, allowing gold to recover above $4,780 before European close. This DXY intraday reversal is consistent with the morning briefing’s thesis: dollar strength was tactical, not structural.
DAX 40
DE40 · XETRA · EU BENCHMARK
22,150
−0.52% · PARTIAL RECOVERY
Session Bias⚡ Risk-Off Open → Recovery
Session Price Action
07:00
Gap Down Open — 22,050
Opened −1.2% below Friday’s 22,265 close. TOUSKA shock + Hormuz closure fully repriced at the bell.
09:30
Recovery Begins — Vance Confirmation
DAX recovered from −1.2% lows toward −0.7% after White House confirmed Round 2 Pakistan talks. Energy sector gains widened.
EU Close
Settled 22,150 — Bear-But-Recovering
Weekly morning star at 21,800 remains intact. Key support held. Not a bull trap — conditional on ceasefire progress.
EU Session Levels
DAX Friday close22,265
Today’s session open22,050 (gap −0.97%)
Session low22,010
Session high22,205
Close22,150 (−0.52%)
Key support21,800 (weekly morning star)
EUR/USD
FX MAJOR · EU SESSION RANGE: 1.1765–1.1810
1.1795
Held Range · DXY Fading
Short-Term Bias🐻 BEARISH SHORT-TERM · RANGE BOUND
Session Price Action
07:00
Opened 1.1791 — Near pre-market lows
DXY at 98.62 at the European open. EUR/USD under pressure from dollar safe-haven bid and EU energy exposure.
08:10
Session low 1.1765
DXY peaked at 98.72. EUR/USD tested but held above 1.1750 key support. No fresh bearish impetus — bears couldn’t extend.
EU Close
Recovered to 1.1795 — Range intact
DXY faded to 98.18 on Vance confirmation. EUR/USD held the 1.1765–1.1810 range. Evening star pattern on D1 still intact.
🇺🇸
U.S. Session Recap — 12:30–21:00 GMT / 08:30–17:00 ET
🇺🇸
U.S. Session
MON 20 APR 2026 · 12:30–21:00 GMT · 08:30–17:00 ET · NYSE / NASDAQ
✓ CONTAINED — HOLDS 7,022 ATH FLOOR
S&P Open
7,100
−0.36% at bell
S&P Close
7,083
−0.61% · ATH held
WTI Close
$87.56
+6.02% · Off $90.40 high
10Y Close
4.31%
+9bps · Off 4.34% high
U.S. Session Headlines — Chronological
12:30US markets open. S&P 500 opens at 7,100 (−0.36%). Dow flat. Nasdaq −0.55%. Energy sector leads with XOM +2.8%, CVX +3.1%, OXY +3.9% on WTI surge. Tech sector drags on inflation/rate concerns.
13:10S&P 500 tests Setup 05 entry zone (7,050–7,080). Intraday print of 7,058. 7,022 prior ATH support holds. Traders cite Vital Knowledge: “net negative weekend but deescalation trajectory intact.” Selling pressure contained.
14:00WTI peaks at $90.40 then reverses sharply. CFTC report shows speculative positioning stretched long. Oil begins systematic retreat as Vance/Witkoff confirmed in Islamabad. WTI retraces to $88.20.
15:30Trump posts on Truth Social: “JD and the team are in Pakistan right now. The talks with Iran are going very well — they want to make a deal. America is strong!” Equities recover from lows; S&P recovers to 7,090 briefly. Gold jumps from $4,768 to $4,805.
16:45Iran foreign minister: “Fundamental gaps remain on nuclear enrichment.” Counter-headline dampens Trump optimism. S&P retreats from 7,090 to 7,075. Oil retreats to $87.56 settlement zone.
17:00S&P 500 closes 7,083 (−0.61%). 7,022 prior ATH held as support — no bull trap. Nasdaq −0.40%. Dow −0.20%. Energy sector closes +2.4%. Healthcare +0.3%. Tech −0.8%.
17:30WTI settles at $87.56 (+6.02%). Brent settles $95.48. Both well off session highs — a constructive settlement pattern. Note: May contract expires April 22; June contract at $85.70.
19:00Gold settles ~$4,805 (+0.63%). Full intraday reversal from $4,752 low. DXY fades to 98.50. 10Y yield settles 4.31% — off the 4.34% intraday high. BTC holds $74,110.
The U.S. session confirmed the central market thesis: investors are not pricing a breakdown scenario, but they are not pricing a clean resolution either. The S&P 500’s refusal to break below the 7,022 prior ATH — and the rapid recovery from the 7,058 intraday low — shows that structural bulls remain in command above that level. The “SETUP 05 LONG S&P” entry zone of 7,050–7,080 was touched perfectly at the session lows, validating the morning briefing’s technical framework.
The most telling price action of the session was WTI crude’s retreat from $90.40 to $87.56 as Vance arrived in Islamabad. Oil markets are extraordinarily sensitive to diplomatic headlines at current levels, and the six-dollar round-trip from morning highs to settlement shows how binary the Wednesday outcome truly is. Traders who are long crude from Setup 01 ($89–$90.50) are currently below entry — an unrealised loss — but the structural setup remains valid above $85 (stop loss level). The setup requires patience through Wednesday.
U.S. Session Key Themes
- Energy outperformed everything else: XOM +2.8%, CVX +3.1%, HAL +4.2%, OXY +3.9% — energy sector the only S&P sector closing meaningfully positive on the day.
- Tech the largest drag: NVDA −1.3%, AAPL −0.8%, META −0.6%, MSFT −0.4% — inflation/rate risk from oil suppressed rate-sensitive growth stocks.
- 7,022 S&P ATH floor held: Session low of 7,058. This is the critical level for bulls — a close below would convert the prior ATH into resistance, invalidating Setup 05.
- Trump social media = new market timing signal: The 15:30 GMT Truth Social post generated a +30 point S&P swing in 12 minutes. Diplomatic posts will continue to move markets violently through Wednesday.
- Gold’s intraday reversal strongest signal of the day: $4,752 → $4,805 (+$53) — the exact bull flag entry zone from Setup 02 held with precision. The DXY intraday reversal was the key driver.
S&P 500
SPX · NYSE · SESSION CLOSE 7,083
7,083
−0.61% · 7,022 ATH HELD
Structural Bias▲ BULL ABOVE 7,022
Session Candle Analysis
D1
Bearish Doji / Indecision Candle at ATH Zone
Opened 7,100, dipped to 7,058, recovered to 7,090, closed 7,083. Long lower wick signals demand at 7,022–7,058 support zone. Not a bearish reversal signal unless closes below 6,980.
H1
Failed Bear Breakdown → Recovery
11:10–12:00 ET: S&P tested 7,058 twice without printing lower. Double-bottom on H1 at exactly the Setup 05 entry zone. Textbook technical validation.
Sector Performance · US Close
Energy (XLE)+2.4%
Healthcare (XLV)+0.3%
Utilities (XLU)+0.1%
Consumer Staples (XLP)−0.1%
Financials (XLF)−0.4%
Technology (XLK)−0.8%
Consumer Disc. (XLY)−0.9%
XAU/USD
GOLD · SESSION: $4,752 LOW → $4,805 CLOSE
$4,805
+0.63% · SETUP 02 TRIGGERED
Intraday Bias▲ BULL FLAG ENTRY CONFIRMED
Session Price Action
AM
H4 Bull Flag Entry Triggered at $4,752
DXY-driven dip reached 08:10 GMT. Exact lower boundary of the H4 bull flag. Long entry from Setup 02 ($4,740–$4,760) confirmed.
PM
Full Intraday Reversal — $53 recovery
Trump social post at 15:30 GMT broke gold above $4,780. Closed $4,805 — first target of $4,850–$4,900 now in view. Stop at $4,700 intact.
Setup 02 Status · Gold Long
Entry triggered✓ YES — $4,752 intraday
Current positionIn profit (+$53)
Stop loss$4,700 — intact, not tested
TP1$4,860–$4,900 · en route
R:R remaining1 : 2.2+ from current level
WTI CRUDE
CL1 · NYMEX MAY EXPIRY APR 22 · JUNE CTRL $85.70
$87.56
+6.02% · OFF $90.40 HIGH
Session Bias⚡ BULLISH BUT VOLATILE · BINARY RISK
Session Price Action
Asia
Gapped to $90.40 — 7% surge
Hormuz closure + TOUSKA seizure drove immediate supply-shock repricing. Peak at 08:14 GMT.
EU
Pared to $88.50 — Vance confirmation
As diplomatic signals emerged, oil gave back gains. Still up significantly — the supply premium is NOT gone.
US
Settled $87.56 — Off highs is constructive
Settlement below $90 keeps SETUP 05 (S&P 500 long) valid — morning briefing condition: “only valid if WTI stays below $93 at US open.” Condition MET.
Setup 01 Status · WTI Long
Entry zone$89.00–$90.50
Entry triggered?⚠ PARTIAL — $90.40 high touched zone
Current price vs entry$87.56 — below entry zone
Stop loss$85.00 — not triggered
StatusWATCH — await $89 re-test or new setup
GBP/USD
CABLE · SESSION LOW 1.3490 · CLOSE 1.3515
1.3515
−0.21% · SETUP 04 TRIGGERED
Structural Bias▲ DIP-BUY STRUCTURE INTACT
Session Price Action
08:10
Session low 1.3490 — Setup 04 Entry ✓
Setup 04 entry zone (1.3480–1.3510) triggered at 08:10 GMT. Classic dip-buy in a bull structure. Hot UK CPI and BoE repricing provided fundamental floor.
Close
Recovered to 1.3515 — In profit +25 pips
Closed above entry. Stop at 1.3420 intact. Target 1.3600 — 85 pips remaining. Bull structure above 1.3420 fully intact.
Setup 04 Status · GBP/USD Long
Entry triggered✓ YES — 1.3490 intraday
Current price1.3515 · +25 pips profit
Stop loss1.3420 — intact
Take profit target1.3600 · 85 pips remaining
R:R remainingImproved to ~1:1.9
📋
Morning Setup Status — End-of-Day Update
All seven morning briefing setups received price action at or near their stated levels today. Here is the full end-of-day status for each setup:
SETUP 01 · CRUDE OIL
WTI Crude — Long at Hormuz Premium
⚠ BELOW ENTRY · WATCHING
Session high of $90.40 briefly touched the upper end of the entry zone ($89–$90.50). However, price settled at $87.56 — below the entry zone. Setup logic remains valid but requires a retest of the $89–$90.50 zone. Do not chase below entry. Stop at $85 remains key. A ceasefire breakdown overnight would gap oil above $90 and trigger entry on the open Tuesday. Current status: watchlist only.
SETUP 02 · GOLD (BEST SETUP TODAY)
XAU/USD — H4 Bull Flag Dip-Buy
✓ TRIGGERED · IN PROFIT
Entry zone $4,740–$4,760 triggered at 08:10 GMT when DXY peaked at 98.72 and gold printed $4,752. Full intraday reversal to $4,805 (+$53 from entry midpoint). Stop at $4,700 was never threatened. This was the highest-conviction setup of the day with the cleanest technical trigger. DXY intraday reversal confirmed the thesis. First target $4,860–$4,900 remains in view ahead of Wednesday binary.
SETUP 03 · FOREX
EUR/USD — Short on Bounce 1.1800–1.1820
⏳ NOT YET TRIGGERED
EUR/USD held a tight 1.1765–1.1810 range all session. The short entry zone of 1.1800–1.1820 was not reached — price peaked at 1.1810 intraday without generating a confirmed short signal. Evening star formation on D1 remains intact. Requires a clean bounce to 1.1800–1.1820 on Tuesday to trigger. Diplomatic headlines from Islamabad could move EUR/USD either way overnight — treat as a fresh day setup Tuesday morning.
SETUP 04 · FOREX
GBP/USD — Long Dip-Buy 1.3480–1.3510
✓ TRIGGERED · +25 PIPS IN PROFIT
Session low of 1.3490 at 08:10 GMT triggered the entry zone precisely. GBP/USD recovered to close at 1.3515, generating +25 pips of unrealised profit. Bull structure above 1.3420 fully intact. Stop at 1.3420 not threatened. Target 1.3600 remains 85 pips away. Hold with stop at 1.3420. If Islamabad talks produce positive headlines overnight, GBP/USD could gap toward 1.3560–1.3580 at Tuesday open.
Target
1.3600 · 85 pips away
SETUP 05 · INDICES
S&P 500 — Long at 7,050–7,080 (Conditional on WTI <$93)
🔵 ENTRY ZONE TESTED · CONDITION MET
Session low of 7,058 tested the entry zone (7,050–7,080). WTI condition was MET — oil settled below $93 throughout the US session. Price recovered from 7,058 to close at 7,083, generating +25 points unrealised profit for entries in the zone. However, entries were only valid after the WTI condition was confirmed at the US open — those who waited appropriately for confirmation entered in the 7,058–7,075 range. Invalidation at 6,980 remains in force. Hold with stop at 6,980.
SETUP 06 · CRYPTO
BTC/USD — $75K Breakout Retest
🔵 ENTRY ZONE ACTIVE · IN RANGE
BTC/USD traded between $73,550 and $74,800 all session — fully within the stated entry zone of $73,500–$75,000. BTC confirmed its resilience as the 4th Iran shock: smallest percentage drop yet. Setup remains active. Stop at $70,000 not threatened. ETF inflow data remains constructive. Close at $74,110 puts BTC in the upper half of the entry zone. Bull case above $73,000 fully intact.
Entry Zone
$73,500–$75,000 · Active
SETUP 07 · BONDS / ETF
TLT — 20-Year Treasury Bond ETF
⏳ WATCHING — NOT YET AT ENTRY
10Y yield rose from 4.30% to peak at 4.34% intraday before settling at 4.31%. TLT did not reach the stated entry zone of $95.50–$96.50 today — it traded in the $96.80–$97.40 range. If yields spike further toward 4.35–4.40% on a Islamabad breakdown overnight, TLT could reach the entry zone Tuesday. This remains the cleanest ceasefire binary hedge available. Alternatively, if Islamabad talks produce positive headlines, TLT will rally without giving the entry — in that scenario, the setup is voided and oil/equity longs become the primary trades.
🔭
Tuesday April 21 — Overnight Risks & Session Outlook
3M (MMM)
Q1 Earnings
Before Open · Tue 21
Est. EPS $2.02 · Rev $6.05B · Prior $1.83 EPS
US Retail Sales
12:30 GMT
March Data · High Impact
Est. +0.1% MoM · Prior +0.2% · Oil shock filter key
Iran Talks
Islamabad
Round 2 · All Day
Vance/Witkoff/Kushner in Pakistan. Any leak = gap open
WTI Crude
$87.56
+6.02% · May Expiry Apr 22
May/June contract roll in progress. June at $85.70
Gold
$4,805
Setup 02 Active
Hold long from $4,752. TP1 at $4,860–$4,900
S&P 500
7,083
ATH 7,022 = key floor
3M earnings + retail sales Tuesday. Geopolitics dominant.
The most important input into Tuesday’s session will not come from an economic data release — it will come from overnight diplomatic dispatches from Islamabad. VP Vance’s delegation is in active talks as this report is published. Any unofficial leak or formal statement regarding the progress of nuclear enrichment negotiations will be the dominant price signal. Both gold and GBP/USD trades (Setups 02 and 04) are currently in profit and positioned correctly to benefit from either scenario: a deal (GBP/USD rallies, gold consolidates higher) or a breakdown (gold surges toward $4,860+, oil gaps higher, TLT entry activated).
On the data side, US Retail Sales for March (12:30 GMT Tuesday) will provide an early read on whether the oil shock has begun to depress consumer spending. Estimates call for a modest +0.1% reading. A miss below zero would add recession concerns on top of the geopolitical premium, potentially weighing on the S&P 500’s hold of 7,022. 3M earnings (before open Tuesday, est. $2.02 EPS) will be the first industrial conglomerate result of the week — a key read on whether supply-chain oil-cost exposure is flowing through to margins.
📅 Tuesday April 21 — Overnight Risk Matrix
What Happens Overnight in Islamabad Determines Tuesday’s Open
Scenario A — Positive progress from talks (50% probability): Oil gaps down toward $84–$85 at Asia open. S&P 500 futures gap up toward 7,150+. GBP/USD Setup 04 accelerates toward 1.3580. Gold consolidates $4,810–$4,840. EUR/USD bounces toward 1.1820 (Setup 03 short opportunity). TLT setup voided — buy oil/equity long instead.
Scenario B — Talks break down or Iran refuses nuclear terms (35% probability): WTI gaps to $92–$95 at Asia open. S&P 500 futures gap down toward 7,000–7,022. TLT entry activated at $95.50–$96.50. Gold surges toward $4,860+. Dollar spikes to 99+. EUR/USD tests 1.1700 (Setup 03 entry). Consider emergency sizing only — gaps will be violent.
Scenario C — Talks continue with no headline (15% probability): Markets open flat-to-slightly-bid as the absence of bad news is treated as good news. WTI consolidates $86–$89. S&P 500 drifts 7,080–7,110. Focus shifts to 3M earnings and retail sales as fundamental data drivers. Setups 02/04/05/06 all hold within zones.
Key reminder: Wednesday April 23 is the binary — not Tuesday. Do not over-position on Tuesday’s open regardless of overnight headlines. 50% position sizing remains the correct risk management posture.
Session Summary — Monday, April 20, 2026
Today’s sessions delivered exactly what the morning briefing prepared traders for: a violent shock open followed by a structured, technical absorption. Every key level held. Every important setup saw price action at entry zones. The market’s refusal to break the 7,022 S&P 500 prior ATH is the most important technical signal of the entire session — it tells active traders that institutional money is treating this diplomatic crisis as temporary, not structural.
Setups 02 (Gold) and 04 (GBP/USD) are both in profit from intraday entries. Setup 05 (S&P long) touched the entry zone at 7,058 and is marginally profitable. Setup 06 (Bitcoin) remains within the active entry zone at $74,110. Setup 01 (WTI long) requires patience — the trade is not invalidated, but a $89+ retest is needed before entry logic is clean again.
The week’s defining event remains Wednesday April 23 — the simultaneous expiry of the US–Iran ceasefire, Tesla earnings, and IBM earnings. Tonight’s Islamabad progress — or lack thereof — will set the tone for the remaining 72 hours. Keep position sizes at 50%, keep stops tight, and keep geopolitical news alerts active through Wednesday close.
