Gold Rebounds to $4,214, Silver Jumps to $60.68, Copper Firms at $6.667, WTI Slips to $90.57 on Iran Pledge, Corn at 501.40¢ and Wheat at 683.40¢ Ahead of USDA WASDE | 9 October 2026
Gold Rebounds to $4,214, Silver Jumps to $60.68, Copper Firms at $6.667, WTI Slips to $90.57 on Iran Pledge, Corn at 501.40¢ and Wheat at 683.40¢ Ahead of USDA WASDE
Commodities are mixed on Friday. Precious metals lead, with gold up about 1.4% near $4,214 after touching a two-month low this week and silver up 2.1% to $60.68, while the dollar index eases to 101.88. Crude oil is lower: WTI is near $90.57 and Brent near $102.99 after President Trump said the US will not attack Iran before the 3 November midterms, although Hormuz tanker attacks and Hurricane Isaias still threaten supply. Grains are steady ahead of the USDA’s October supply and demand report.
Focus today: USDA Crop Production and WASDE (12:00 ET / 16:00 GMT; corn yield consensus 177.8 bu/acre, wheat ending stocks about 721 million bushels), Canada jobs (12:30 GMT), UoM sentiment (14:00 GMT), CFTC positioning, the Fed’s Collins (20:00 GMT) and weekend Hurricane Isaias and Iran headline risk. Prices are futures quotes (gold, silver, copper, WTI, Brent in USD; corn and wheat in US cents per bushel) captured on 9 October.
Top Stories Moving the Market
Gold rebounds toward $4,200
Gold futures bounce from this week’s two-month low near 4,128 as positioning ahead of next week’s US CPI builds, though the daily RSI is still bearish.
Silver outpaces gold
Silver futures jump 2.11% to 60.675, recovering from Thursday’s 58.73 low; the 61.54 bear-flag resistance is the next test.
Copper pushes into the 6.56-6.76 range top
COMEX copper rises 1.50% to 6.667/lb as the dollar index slips to 101.88; Thursday’s high of 6.764 is the barrier.
WTI slips as Trump rules out Iran strike
WTI falls to about 90.57 after Trump said the US will not attack Iran before the 3 November midterms, but Hormuz tanker attacks and Hurricane Isaias keep supply risk high.
Corn edges up before USDA report
December corn ticks higher near the 500 handle ahead of the 12:00 ET WASDE, with delayed Midwest harvest and the yield debate in focus.
Wheat flat near 683 on USDA caution
December wheat is steady after two straight losses on a firmer dollar; Black Sea disruptions limit downside, and the daily technical read is Strong Sell.
Technical Summary & Trade Ideas
Gold (XAU/USD, Dec futures)
Metals · Fed path, US CPI, safe-haven flowsGold futures trade near 4,214, up about 1.4% and extending a recovery from the two-month low of 4,128.51 hit on Thursday. Thursday’s failure at 4,160 and a flat week to date show buyers are still cautious: the daily RSI remains bearish and traders are repositioning before US CPI. Gold is far below the January record near 5,608, and elevated US yields (10-year about 5.24%) cap rallies. A hold above 4,170 keeps the rebound alive toward 4,250; a break under 4,128 would reopen the 3,890 yearly low. Levels are conditional.
Silver (XAG/USD, Dec futures)
Metals · Gold beta, dollar, bear-flag resistanceSilver futures rise 2.11% to 60.675, outperforming gold after Thursday’s 58.73 low. Technical commentary earlier this week described a bear flag consolidating near 61.54, so the bounce is meeting heavy supply at 60.83 and 61.54. Falling Treasury-yield pressure and a softer dollar (101.88) help, but a daily close above 61.54 would be needed to invalidate the pattern. A move back under 59.30 targets 58.73. Levels are conditional.
Copper (HG, Dec futures)
Metals · Dollar, China demand, risk sentimentCOMEX copper is up 1.50% at 6.667 per pound, in the upper half of Thursday’s 6.563-6.764 range. Recent analysis described copper consolidating between key levels near 6.65. A softer dollar supports base metals, but risk-off selling in US tech (Nasdaq down 1.25%) and high yields limit follow-through. A close above 6.764 opens 6.80; losing 6.563 would turn the range lower. Levels are conditional.
Crude Oil WTI (Nov futures)
Energy · Iran, Hormuz tanker attacks, Hurricane IsaiasWTI trades near 90.57, down about 1%, after settling at 91.49 on Thursday; Brent is near 102.99 and set for a weekly gain while WTI is heading for a slight weekly decline. President Trump’s pledge of no attack on Iran before 3 November and the IEA’s faster stock release weigh on prices, but nine tanker attacks near Hormuz this week, Hormuz flows about 30% below normal (Kpler) and roughly 500,000 bpd of US Gulf output shut in for Hurricane Isaias keep dips shallow. Supports are 89.50 then 88.78; resistance is 92.00 and Thursday’s 93.20 high. Levels are conditional.
US Corn (Dec futures, cents/bushel)
Grains · USDA WASDE, delayed harvest, yield debateDecember corn is near 501.40, up 0.28%, close to the 496 session low and just above the six-week low area of 495. USDA releases its October Crop Production and WASDE at 12:00 ET today: the trade average for 2026 yield is 177.8 bu/acre against 178.5 previously, and historic September rainfall has delayed the Midwest harvest. A yield cut would support prices toward 505-515; a bigger-than-expected crop or higher old-crop stocks (2.095 billion bushels) could break 496. Expect volatility around the report. Levels are conditional.
US Wheat (Dec futures, cents/bushel)
Grains · USDA WASDE, strong dollar, Black Sea supplyDecember wheat is near 683.40, flat on the day after closing 3.5 cents lower on Thursday, its second straight loss on a firmer dollar and lower corn and soybeans. The daily technical summary reads Strong Sell, while the weekly and monthly reads are Buy. Support is the 681.10 low then 670; resistance is 688 then 700, with Black Sea disruption and Saudi tender demand limiting losses. The WASDE consensus sees 2026/27 US ending stocks at 721 million bushels versus 717 million; a larger number would add pressure. Levels are conditional.
Elsewhere in Commodity Markets
Brent slips but heads for weekly gain
Brent falls from Thursday’s 104.28 settle after Trump’s no-strike pledge; Hormuz attacks keep it above $100.
Natural gas eases
Natural gas futures dip 1.10% to 3.133.
Platinum surges
Platinum jumps 3.36%, the strongest mover in the precious-metals group today.
Soybeans firm before WASDE
Soybean futures rise 0.43% as traders watch whether USDA lifts the yield again.
Dollar slips slightly
The dollar index eases to 101.88 with the US 10-year yield near 5.24% and the 30-year near 5.62%, still historically elevated.
What Is Moving the Market
Oil and the Middle East
Trump said the US will not attack Iran before the 3 November midterms and cited productive talks, pulling oil off Thursday’s highs. Even so, nine tankers were attacked in and around Hormuz over the past week, flows through the strait are about 30% below pre-war levels (Kpler), and Hurricane Isaias has shut in about 500,000 bpd (25%) of US Gulf production.
Gold, silver and the Fed
Precious metals are bouncing from two-month lows as traders square positions ahead of US CPI on 14 October. Gold remains about 25% below its January record, and silver sits under bear-flag resistance; sticky yields and a Fed seen tightening later this year keep the trend contested.
Copper and the dollar
The dollar index at 101.88 is slightly softer, helping copper and silver, but a risk-off Nasdaq (down 1.25%) and US yields above 5% cap industrial-metal rallies.
Grains and USDA
The October WASDE at 12:00 ET (16:00 GMT) updates US crop yields and stocks. Analysts expect a corn yield near 177.8 bu/acre, and wheat ending stocks of about 721 million bushels. A stronger dollar and the delayed Midwest harvest are the cross-currents.
Economic Calendar / Events
| Time | Country | Event | Result / Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8 Oct | Global | Brent settles at $104.28, WTI $91.49 | Iran tanker attacks and Hurricane Isaias; yields eased after Trump’s Iran comments |
| 12:00 ET / 16:00 GMT | US | USDA Crop Production and WASDE (Oct) | Corn yield consensus 177.8 bu/acre vs 178.5; wheat ending stocks about 721M bu |
| 12:30 GMT | Canada | Labour Force Survey (Sep) | Consensus about +6K jobs; CAD and crude sensitivity |
| 14:00 GMT | US | UoM consumer sentiment (prelim, Oct) | Consensus about 47.6; inflation expectations key for gold and yields |
| After close | US | CFTC positioning data | Speculative positions in gold, crude, corn and wheat |
| 20:00 GMT | US | Fed’s Collins speaks | Another read on the hike path |
| Late Fri / Sat | US / Gulf | Hurricane Isaias landfall | Gulf oil and gas output, refinery risk |
| Wed 14 Oct | US | September CPI | Key driver for gold, silver and yields |
| 28-29 Oct | US / Euro area | FOMC and ECB decisions | Rate expectations and dollar direction |
| 3 Nov | US | Midterm elections | Iran-strike pledge expires as a market support for oil |
Summary
Commodities are split. Gold (4,214), silver (60.68) and copper (6.667) are rebounding as the dollar index slips to 101.88, but gold’s daily RSI is still bearish and silver faces bear-flag resistance at 61.54. WTI (90.57) and Brent (102.99) are lower after Trump ruled out an Iran strike before the midterms, though nine Hormuz tanker attacks this week and Hurricane Isaias, which has shut in about 25% of US Gulf output, keep dips shallow. Corn (501.40) and wheat (683.40) are quiet before the USDA WASDE at 12:00 ET, where the corn yield and wheat stocks figures will set the next move. Next tests: WASDE, Canada jobs, UoM inflation expectations and Collins, then US CPI on 14 October.
FAQ
Q:Why is gold bouncing today?
A:Gold futures are up about 1.4% near 4,214 as the metal recovers from a two-month low of 4,128.51 and traders reposition before US CPI on 14 October. The daily RSI is still bearish, so 4,250 is resistance and 4,170 first support.
Q:What are the key levels today?
A:Gold 4,170/4,215, silver 59.30/60.83, copper 6.600/6.764, WTI 89.50/92.00, corn 496/505, wheat 681/688. These are conditional references, not forecasts.
Q:What could move grains today?
A:The USDA’s October WASDE at 12:00 ET. Corn is sensitive to the yield estimate versus the 177.8 bu/acre trade average, and wheat to the ending-stocks figure versus about 721 million bushels.
