Gold Slips to 4,145 Before US CPI, WTI Holds 94.09 and Corn Sinks to 465 After the USDA Shock | Technical Analysis – Commodity Report | 14-10-2026
Daily Commodities Report | Wednesday 14 October 2026
Gold Slips to 4,145 Before US CPI, WTI Holds 94.09 and Corn Sinks to 465 After the USDA Shock
Market Overview
Commodities trade defensively on Wednesday 14 October ahead of US September CPI at 12:30 GMT. Gold slipped 0.39% to 4,145.08 for a third straight decline, silver fell 1.02% to 58.58 near a two-month low, and palladium was flat at 1,116.45. WTI crude eased 0.73% to 94.09 after a five-session climb as Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia kept supply risk alive, while wheat lost 0.52% to 673.7 and corn 0.47% to 465.41, extending the slide that followed USDA’s surprise corn yield increase on 9 October.
The backdrop is hawkish. Consensus for CPI is +0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y for the headline and +0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y for core, markets price about an 80% chance of a hold on 28 October but roughly 85% to 90% for a December hike, and New York Fed President Williams said one more increase is appropriate this year. September payrolls rose only 29,000 and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. The dollar index is near 102.1, off an 18-month high, the 10-year yield is near 5.22% and Brent is near 106, so an energy-led inflation surprise would hit non-yielding metals hardest.
Our positioning splits between rate-sensitive metals and grains under pressure, and a geopolitical oil bid. We are bearish on gold from 4,213, silver from 60.00, palladium from 1,165, wheat from 690 and corn from 469, and bullish on WTI from 92.50.
Key highlights
- Gold at 4,145.08 (−0.39%) hit a weekly low and sits under the 4,213, 4,257 and 4,334 averages; the 4,115 Fibonacci level and the rising line near 4,100 are the floor, with RSI at 41.68.
- Silver at 58.58 (−1.02%) presses the lower channel line just above the 8 October low near 58.50; RSI at 37.58 is below its signal line and the averages cluster at 62 to 64.
- Palladium at 1,116.45 trades near its 2026 low in a falling channel; spot platinum was 1,701.40 on 12 October, and the 1,100 round level is the first test.
- WTI at 94.09 holds above the 92.40 fast average after breaking a falling trendline; Goldman lifted its December Brent forecast to 90 and the EIA report lands at 14:30 GMT.
- Wheat at 673.7 rests on the 668.6 long average after USDA lifted US ending stocks to 740 million bushels; inspections are 35% below last year, while Ukraine’s exports may fall 21%.
- Corn at 465.41 retests the broken channel under the 469.20 long average after ending stocks jumped 18% to 1.849 billion bushels; RSI at 34.45 is near oversold.
- US CPI (Sep) is due at 12:30 GMT; a headline of +0.7% m/m or more would revive October hike bets and pressure the metals, while +0.4% or less would give gold and silver a squeeze.
Trade Setups for Today
Six setups for Wednesday 14 October 2026, ranked by instrument. Each carries a defined invalidation level: a 1-hour close beyond the stop negates the idea. Setups are valid for today’s session only.
| Instrument | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Short | 4,213 | 4,260 | 4,115 | 3,960 | 2.1 / 5.4 | Medium |
| Silver | Short | 60.00 | 61.20 | 56.60 | 55.00 | 2.8 / 4.2 | Medium |
| Palladium | Short | 1,165 | 1,195 | 1,100 | 1,040 | 2.2 / 4.2 | Low |
| WTI Crude Oil | Long | 92.50 | 89.50 | 97.00 | 102.00 | 1.5 / 3.2 | Medium |
| Wheat | Short | 690 | 708 | 660 | 625 | 1.7 / 3.6 | Low |
| Corn | Short | 469.0 | 477.5 | 457.0 | 446.0 | 1.4 / 2.7 | Medium |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to target 1 and target 2, divided by the distance from entry to the stop. Gold, silver and palladium shorts are correlated and respond to the same dollar and yield drivers, so treat them as one precious-metals book; the corn and wheat shorts are also linked. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Key Drivers Today
Ten data points and events set direction for commodities today and this week. All times are GMT.
- US CPI (Sep)
- +0.6% m/m, 3.6% y/y
- Core +0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y; prior 3.4% headline
- Fed hike odds
- Dec ~85–90%
- Oct hold ~80%; Williams sees one more hike
- Middle East supply
- Houthi–Saudi strikes
- Aramco Dhahran hit; Hormuz tanker attacks; Brent ~106
- USDA WASDE corn shock
- Stocks 1.849 bn bu
- Yield 181.2 bpa; stocks +282 mn bu; wheat 740 mn
- Dollar and yields
- DXY ~102.1
- Off 18-month high; 10Y ~5.22%
- EIA crude inventories
- Weekly stocks
- Tests WTI breakout above 92.40
- Fed Beige Book, Barkin
- Fed commentary
- Barkin 17:30 GMT; Beige Book 18:00 GMT
- US PPI and retail sales
- Inflation and spending
- Follows CPI; jobless claims same time
- Warsh at IMF and World Bank
- Fed Chair speech
- Bangkok meetings; policy path cues
- Fed decision
- Rate decision
- Hike risk for December largely priced
Swipe the strip to see every driver.
US CPI Scenario Analysis
US CPI for September is due today, Wednesday 14 October at 12:30 GMT. Consensus is +0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y for the headline and +0.2% m/m for core; an in-line print should leave pricing largely unchanged. Select a scenario to view the expected path for each instrument.
Hot CPI: headline at or above +0.7% m/m or core at or above +0.3% m/m
A hotter print would revive October hike bets, lift the December odds above 90%, and push the dollar and the 10-year yield higher, which hits gold, silver and palladium first. Grains follow the dollar lower, while WTI gives back part of its breakout.
- Gold4,115, then 3,960
- Silver56.60, then 55.00
- Palladium1,100, then 1,040
- WTI Crude Oil92.50, then 89.50
- Wheat660, then 625
- Corn457.0, then 446.0
Soft CPI: headline at or below +0.4% m/m and core at or below +0.2% m/m
A softer print would reaffirm a hold on 28 October, ease yields and the dollar, and let metals squeeze back to the shorts’ entries and resistance. WTI would extend toward its targets on the supply story.
- Gold4,213, then 4,260
- Silver60.00, then 61.20
- Palladium1,165, then 1,195
- WTI Crude Oil97.00, then 102.00
- Wheat690, then 708
- Corn469.0, then 477.5
Gold (US$/oz) | XAU/USD
Gold Analysis: Price Slips for a Third Day to 4,145 Inside a Falling Channel as Fed Hike Bets Cap Rebounds Before US CPI
4,145.08 −16.05 (−0.39%) vs previous close Day range 4,141.25–4,170.45
Outlook: Bias is bearish below the 4,213 fast average while price holds the rising line near 4,100. Gold traded at 4,145.08 on Wednesday 14 October, down 0.39% and a third straight decline to a fresh weekly low, as markets price roughly a 90% chance of a December Fed hike and New York Fed President Williams said one more increase is appropriate this year. The preferred approach is a rally short at 4,213 with a stop at 4,260 and targets at 4,115 and 3,960, sized for medium conviction ahead of US CPI at 12:30 GMT.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 3,960
- Support 1
- 4,115
- Resistance 1
- 4,213
- Resistance 2
- 4,260
Daily chart structure
- Price trades inside a falling channel from the January record near 5,600 (spot peak 5,589.38 on 28 January); a rising support line from the late-June low near 3,930 now runs near 4,100, just under price, and the August high near 4,690 marks the last lower high.
- The fast, mid and long averages at 4,213.16, 4,256.70 and 4,333.87 are stacked above price in bearish order; today’s high of 4,170.45 stalled beneath them, and FXStreet notes a two-week range of about 4,100 to 4,220 with the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 4,115 as the tentative floor.
- RSI reads 41.68, above its signal line at 40.57 but under 50, a weak but stabilising reading. The dollar index near 102.1 has eased from an 18-month high, which limits losses, while a 10-year yield near 5.22% and oil-driven inflation worries keep the path of least resistance down.
Gold trade setup
Short Medium conviction- Entry
- $4,213
- Stop loss
- $4,260
- Target 1
- $4,115
- Target 2
- $3,960
Risk $47, or 1.12%. Reward:risk 2.1 to target 1, 5.4 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a rally into the 4,213 area, at the 4,213.16 fast average and the top of the two-week range. The stop is above the 4,256.70 mid average at 4,260, and the targets are the 4,115 Fibonacci level near the 4,110 early-October low and the 3,960 prior cycle low.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close above 4,260. A soft US CPI print at 12:30 GMT, a drop in the 10-year yield, or a Middle East de-escalation that trims Fed hike odds is the main risk.
Silver (US$/oz) | XAG/USD
Silver Analysis: Price Slips to 58.58 and Presses the Lower Channel Line Near a Two-Month Low as Yields Hold Above 5.2%
58.58 −0.61 (−1.02%) vs previous close Day range 58.42–59.37
Outlook: Bias is bearish below 60.00, with RSI at 37.58 under its 40.91 signal line. Silver traded at 58.58 on 14 October, down 1.02% after fading from 59.37, just above the 8 October swing low near 58.50, the lowest in two months, as oil-led inflation worries and high Treasury yields weigh on non-yielding metals. The preferred approach is a rally short at 60.00 with a stop at 61.20 and targets at 56.60 and 55.00, sized for medium conviction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 55.00
- Support 1
- 56.60
- Resistance 1
- 60.00
- Resistance 2
- 61.20
Daily chart structure
- Price trades inside a falling channel from the late-August high near 71; the lower line near 57.5 is within reach and the upper line near 64 meets the averages. The 3 August low at 56.57 and the July low near 55 are the major supports.
- The fast, mid and long averages at 62.05, 63.77 and 64.14 sit above price; the 9 October high of 61.19 and the 2 October peak of 62.09 define resistance, and the 60.00 round level, a prior floor, is now a ceiling.
- RSI reads 37.58, below its signal line at 40.91 and above the 30 oversold line, so there is room to fall. TD Securities noted in early October that trend-following funds held only a small net short, so systematic selling could still build below 58.50.
Silver trade setup
Short Medium conviction- Entry
- $60.00
- Stop loss
- $61.20
- Target 1
- $56.60
- Target 2
- $55.00
Risk $1.20, or 2.00%. Reward:risk 2.8 to target 1, 4.2 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a rally into the 60.00 area, the round level that gave way on 7 October and sits under the 61.19 Friday high. The stop is above that high at 61.20, below the 62.05 fast average, and the targets are the 56.60 area at the 3 August low and the 55.00 July low.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close above 61.20. A soft US CPI print at 12:30 GMT, a retreat in US yields, or a weaker dollar that lifts gold back above 4,220 is the main risk.
Palladium (US$/oz) | XPD/USD
Palladium Analysis: Price Holds 1,116 in the Lower Half of a Falling Channel Near Its 2026 Low Ahead of US CPI
1,116.45 +0.08 (+0.01%) vs previous close Day range 1,107.50–1,126.58
Outlook: Bias is bearish below the 1,180 upper channel line. Palladium traded at 1,116.45 on 14 October, flat (+0.01%), after dipping to 1,107.50; Kitco quoted 1,117 on 13 October with a daily low of 1,115, and spot traded between about 1,157 and 1,168 on 12 October, when platinum added 0.8% to 1,701.40. The preferred approach is a rally short at 1,165 with a stop at 1,195 and targets at 1,100 and 1,040, sized for low conviction because thin liquidity can gap.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 1,040
- Support 1
- 1,100
- Resistance 1
- 1,165
- Resistance 2
- 1,195
Daily chart structure
- Price trades inside a falling channel from the late-August high near 1,470; the upper line sits near 1,180 and the lower line near 1,035. The January spike above 2,100 has fully reversed and price is now under the June low near 1,160.
- The chart carries no averages or RSI, so momentum is judged from price: lower highs since August and a series of failed bounces. A close under today’s 1,107.50 low would extend the October low, with the 1,100 round level and the channel floor near 1,035 next.
- Palladium follows the dollar and platinum, and a hot US CPI would lift the dollar and Treasury yields against all precious metals. Liquidity is thin, so gaps around the 12:30 GMT print are likely.
Palladium trade setup
Short Low conviction- Entry
- $1,165
- Stop loss
- $1,195
- Target 1
- $1,100
- Target 2
- $1,040
Risk $30, or 2.58%. Reward:risk 2.2 to target 1, 4.2 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a rally into the 1,165 area, near the 12 October spot high and under the 1,180 upper channel line. The stop is above that line at 1,195, and the targets are the 1,100 round level under today’s low and the 1,040 channel floor.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close above 1,195. A soft US CPI print at 12:30 GMT, a platinum rally, or a supply headline from Russia or South Africa is the main risk.
WTI Crude Oil (US$/bbl) | USOIL / WTI
WTI Analysis: Price Breaks Above a Falling Trendline to 94.09 Over the 92.40 Average as Houthi Strikes on Saudi Arabia Keep Supply Risk Alive
94.09 −0.69 (−0.73%) vs previous close Day range 93.97–95.41
Outlook: Bias is bullish above 92.40 while price holds the breakout from the falling trendline. WTI traded at 94.09 on 14 October, down 0.73% after a five-session climb to a near two-week high, as Houthi attacks hit a Saudi Aramco administrative facility in Dhahran (limited fire, no output loss) and Iran targeted vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, while President Trump lifting the ban on Russian diesel imports capped gains. The preferred approach is a pullback long at 92.50 with a stop at 89.50 and targets at 97.00 and 102.00, sized for medium conviction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 89.50
- Support 1
- 92.50
- Resistance 1
- 97.00
- Resistance 2
- 102.00
Daily chart structure
- Price trades in a converging triangle between a falling line from the mid-September high near 106 and a rising line from the early-July low near 67; the latest candles hold above the falling line, which turns the 92.50 area into support.
- The fast, mid and long averages at 92.40, 89.73 and 85.60 sit below price in bullish order; the 89.50 stop under the mid average separates a normal pullback from a failed breakout.
- RSI reads 54.14, above its signal line at 49.62 and over 50, a constructive reading. Goldman Sachs lifted its December Brent forecast to 90 from 85, estimating geopolitics adds just over 20 per barrel, and the EIA inventory report is due at 14:30 GMT; Brent trades near 106.
WTI Crude Oil trade setup
Long Medium conviction- Entry
- $92.50
- Stop loss
- $89.50
- Target 1
- $97.00
- Target 2
- $102.00
Risk $3.00, or 3.24%. Reward:risk 1.5 to target 1, 3.2 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a pullback to the 92.50 area, at the 92.40 fast average and the retest of the broken falling line. The stop is below the 89.73 mid average at 89.50, and the targets are the 97.00 area of late-September highs and the 102.00 zone of the mid-September swing.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close below 89.50. A hot US CPI print that lifts the dollar, a US-Iran or Saudi-Houthi de-escalation, or a large EIA stock build at 14:30 GMT is the main risk.
Wheat (US¢/bu) | WHEAT / ZW (CFD)
Wheat Analysis: Price Falls Through a Rising Channel to 673.7 and Rests on the 668.6 Long Average After a Bearish USDA Stocks Revision
673.7 −3.5 (−0.52%) vs previous close Day range 672.2–678.2
Outlook: Bias is bearish below the 700 fast average, with RSI at 38.06 under its 42.23 signal line, though oversold conditions and Black Sea risk limit the downside. Wheat traded at 673.7 on 14 October, down 0.52%, after USDA raised 2026-27 US ending stocks by 23 million bushels to 740 million on lower exports, and weekly inspections of 11.2 million bushels left the season total 35% below last year. The preferred approach is a rally short at 690 with a stop at 708 and targets at 660 and 625, sized for low conviction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 625
- Support 1
- 660
- Resistance 1
- 690
- Resistance 2
- 708
Daily chart structure
- Price broke below the lower line of a rising channel drawn from the late-June low near 575; that line near 685 to 690 is now resistance after the late-August high near 790 failed.
- The fast and mid averages at 699.90 and 707.40 sit above price, and the long average at 668.60 sits just below it; a daily close under 668.60 would put all three averages overhead.
- RSI reads 38.06, below its signal line at 42.23. Supply headlines cushion dips: Ukraine’s 2026-27 wheat exports could fall about 21% to 11 million tonnes as Odesa ports stay blocked, and IKAR trimmed Russia’s export potential to 42 million tonnes, but US export demand is lagging.
Wheat trade setup
Short Low conviction- Entry
- 690
- Stop loss
- 708
- Target 1
- 660
- Target 2
- 625
Risk 18, or 2.61%. Reward:risk 1.7 to target 1, 3.6 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a rally into the 690 area, the underside of the broken channel line. The stop is above the 707.40 mid average at 708, and the targets are the 660 area under the 668.60 long average and the 625 zone of the July breakout base.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close above 708. A soft US CPI print at 12:30 GMT, a fresh Black Sea port attack, or a large Middle Eastern import tender is the main risk.
Corn (US¢/bu) | CORN / ZC (CFD)
Corn Analysis: Price Retests the Broken Channel Floor at 465 After a USDA Yield Shock Lifted Ending Stocks 18% to 1.849 Billion Bushels
465.41 −2.19 (−0.47%) vs previous close Day range 464.20–467.83
Outlook: Bias is bearish below the 469.20 long average, with RSI at 34.45 near the oversold line. Corn traded at 465.41 on 14 October, down 0.47%, after USDA on 9 October raised the US yield 2.7 bushels to 181.2 and ending stocks by 282 million to 1.849 billion bushels, well above trade guesses near 1.68 to 1.69 billion; December futures fell almost 4% that day and were at 482.75 on Tuesday. The preferred approach is a rally short at 469 with a stop at 477.5 and targets at 457 and 446, sized for medium conviction.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 446.0
- Support 1
- 457.0
- Resistance 1
- 469.0
- Resistance 2
- 477.5
Daily chart structure
- Price broke below the lower line of a rising channel drawn from the May low after the September high near 521; the 9 October WASDE drop from about 488 to 457 left the line near 469 as resistance.
- The fast and mid averages at 490.37 and 488.45 are well above price, and the long average at 469.20 caps the bounce; the 9 October low near 457 is the first support and the July to August lows near 446 the second.
- RSI reads 34.45, below its signal line at 40.65. Harvest is 33% complete, 6 points behind average, and a wetter pattern returns this week, but export inspections of 51.3 million bushels lifted the season total 5% year on year and Mexico bought 126,540 tonnes.
Corn trade setup
Short Medium conviction- Entry
- 469.0
- Stop loss
- 477.5
- Target 1
- 457.0
- Target 2
- 446.0
Risk 8.5, or 1.81%. Reward:risk 1.4 to target 1, 2.7 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry is a rally into the 469 area, at the 469.20 long average and the underside of the broken channel line. The stop is above the 477 zone of the bounce high at 477.5, and the targets are the 457 low of 9 October and the 446 July to August low.
Invalidation: A 1-hour close above 477.5. A soft US CPI print at 12:30 GMT, short covering from rain-delayed harvest, or a large export sale is the main risk.
Conclusion
US CPI today at 12:30 GMT sets two paths. A hotter print favours gold at 4,115 then 3,960, silver at 56.60 then 55.00, palladium at 1,100, wheat at 660 and corn at 457, with WTI testing 92.50. A softer print favours a squeeze in gold to 4,213, silver to 60.00 and palladium to 1,165, while WTI heads for 97.00. The gold, silver and corn shorts and the WTI long carry medium conviction; the palladium and wheat shorts carry low conviction.
Treat every level as conditional and wait for 1-hour closes beyond a stop before judging an idea invalid. Size positions smaller into 12:30 GMT, because oil near 94, Fed speakers and the 14:30 GMT EIA report can gap markets quickly, and palladium is thinly traded. Our approach is to trade the levels, not the headlines.
Trade Gold, Silver, Palladium, Crude Oil, Wheat and Corn with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the gold outlook for 14 October 2026?
Bias is bearish below 4,213. Gold is 4,145.08 inside a falling channel, under the 4,213.16, 4,256.70 and 4,333.87 averages, with RSI at 41.68. The setup is a medium-conviction rally short at 4,213 with a stop at 4,260 and targets at 4,115 and 3,960.
What is the silver outlook today?
Bias is bearish below 60.00. Silver is 58.58 near the lower line of a falling channel, under the 62.05, 63.77 and 64.14 averages, with RSI at 37.58. The setup is a medium-conviction rally short at 60.00 with a stop at 61.20 and targets at 56.60 and 55.00.
What are the palladium levels today?
Bias is bearish below 1,180. Palladium is 1,116.45 in a falling channel with no averages or RSI on the chart. The setup is a low-conviction rally short at 1,165 with a stop at 1,195 and targets at 1,100 and 1,040.
What is the WTI crude oil outlook for 14 October 2026?
Bias is bullish above 92.40. WTI is 94.09 after breaking a falling trendline, above the 92.40, 89.73 and 85.60 averages, with RSI at 54.14. The setup is a medium-conviction pullback long at 92.50 with a stop at 89.50 and targets at 97.00 and 102.00.
What is the wheat outlook today?
Bias is bearish below 700. Wheat is 673.7 after breaking a rising channel, on the 668.60 long average, with RSI at 38.06. The setup is a low-conviction rally short at 690 with a stop at 708 and targets at 660 and 625.
Why did corn fall so sharply this week?
USDA raised the US corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre and ending stocks 18% to 1.849 billion bushels on 9 October, far above trade estimates. Corn is 465.41, under the 469.20 long average, with RSI at 34.45. The setup is a medium-conviction rally short at 469 with a stop at 477.5 and targets at 457 and 446.
What time is US CPI released in GMT?
US CPI for September is due today, Wednesday 14 October, at 12:30 GMT (8:30 ET). Consensus is +0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y for the headline and +0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y for core. The Fed decides on 28 October at 18:00 GMT.
