Nasdaq 100 Pushes Toward Record Highs as Cooler US PPI Trims Fed Bets, While Brent Slides Near $88, Gold Retreats and the Dollar Holds a Safe-Haven Bid | Technical Analysis – US Session | 13 August 2026
Nasdaq 100 Pushes Toward Record Highs as Cooler US PPI Trims Fed Bets, While Brent Slides Near $88, Gold Retreats and the Dollar Holds a Safe-Haven Bid
USD/CAD · USD/CHF · Gold · Brent Crude Oil · Nasdaq 100 · BTC/USD · Dogecoin — live coverage through the US trading day
“Wholesale inflation just handed the Fed a gift, Wall Street is one good afternoon from a fresh Nasdaq record, and oil is doing all the falling that gold isn’t.”
Thursday’s US session opened around a single decisive data point: the July Producer Price Index. A flat monthly print against expectations for a 0.2% rise, paired with an in-line core reading of 4.2% year-on-year, gave markets a cleaner disinflation signal than Wednesday’s already-tame CPI report. Initial jobless claims ticked up modestly to 209,000, enough to reinforce the “cooling but not cracking” labor market narrative that traders have been pricing since Friday’s payrolls report. The combined effect has been a further repricing lower of September Fed rate-hike odds, now near 35% according to swaps pricing, down from roughly 50% just days ago.
Equities have been the standout beneficiary, with the Nasdaq 100 climbing toward the top of its recent range on renewed AI-trade enthusiasm following strong results from Nebius, CoreWeave and Super Micro, even as Cisco’s post-earnings slide caps some of the broader tape’s gains. The Dollar, however, has not sold off in the way a soft PPI print might typically suggest, instead holding firm near the 100.00 area on the Dollar Index as safe-haven positioning tied to the unresolved Strait of Hormuz standoff continues to underpin demand for the currency against both the Loonie and the Franc. Commodities are telling two very different stories: Brent Crude Oil has fallen sharply as forecasters cut global demand estimates and US crude stockpiles swell, while Gold’s retreat from its overnight spike toward $4,450 reflects profit-taking against a firmer Dollar rather than any fundamental shift in its safe-haven appeal. Crypto majors Bitcoin and Dogecoin remain the session’s laggards, both trading on the defensive as risk appetite in digital assets lags the strength seen in mega-cap tech.
Critical Events — Live Right Now
The top stories moving markets this US session, ranked by impact
July PPI Prints In Line, Easing Fed Rate-Hike Fears
Headline PPI was flat month-over-month against a 0.2% forecast, with the annual rate cooling to 4.7% from 5.5%. Core PPI matched consensus at 4.2% year-on-year. Money markets now price roughly 35% odds the Fed hikes in September, down from near 50% earlier in the week.
MacroNasdaq 100 Pushes Toward Fresh Record Territory
The Nasdaq 100 is up close to 1% on the session, helped by continued AI-infrastructure strength from Nebius, CoreWeave and Super Micro, while the S&P 500 probes fresh all-time intraday highs. Cisco is a notable post-earnings laggard capping some of the broader tape’s gains.
EquitiesGold Retreats From Overnight High Near $4,450
Spot Gold spiked to a fresh multi-week high during the Asian session before pulling back toward $4,400 on profit-taking. A firmer, safe-haven-supported Dollar tied to the unresolved Strait of Hormuz standoff is capping the advance, even as structural central bank buying keeps a floor under the metal.
MetalsTreasury Yields Ease Across the Curve on the PPI Print
Two-year Treasury yields have slipped roughly six basis points to 4.14% as the in-line PPI reading reduced the perceived odds of further Fed tightening, providing a tailwind for rate-sensitive equities including the Nasdaq 100.
RatesUS Session Economic Calendar — 13 August 2026
Key releases and events shaping price action through the US trading day (times in GMT unless noted)
| Time | Event | Forecast / Detail | Impact | Market Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸12:30 GMT (8:30 AM ET) | US PPI (July) | Flat MoM vs +0.2% expected; core +0.2% MoM matching forecast; headline 4.7% YoY vs 5.5% prior, core 4.2% YoY as expected | 🔴 CRITICAL | Softer-than-expected print trims September Fed rate-hike odds to near 35% |
| 🇺🇸12:30 GMT (8:30 AM ET) | US Initial Jobless Claims | 209,000 vs 202,000 expected; continuing claims eased to 1.777 million | 🟢 MEDIUM | Modest labor softening reinforces the “cooling, not cracking” narrative |
| 🇺🇸Throughout the session | Fed Speakers — Hammack & Barkin | Both due to comment around the PPI release, with markets watching for pushback on rate-cut pricing | 🟢 MEDIUM | Any hawkish tilt could stall the Dollar’s PPI-driven softness |
| 🇺🇸14:30 GMT (10:30 AM ET) | EIA Natural Gas Storage | Weekly injection report for the week ending 7 August | ⏰ LOW | Secondary energy-complex release; overshadowed by crude’s PPI-day slide |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | Strait of Hormuz Standoff Persists | Iran maintains the strait will stay shut “until all conditions are met”; Trump reiterates US “total control” claim | 🔴 CRITICAL | Key wildcard for Crude Oil, Gold and broader safe-haven demand into the close |
| 🇺🇸Ongoing | Nasdaq 100 Presses Toward Record Territory | Up close to 1% on the session on renewed AI-trade strength; Cisco a notable post-earnings laggard | 🟢 MEDIUM | S&P 500 also probing fresh all-time intraday highs alongside tech strength |
| 🇳🇰21:00 GMT (Late Session) | New Zealand Business PMI & RBA Governor Bullock Speech | Closes out the global day and sets the tone for Friday’s Asia-Pacific open | ⏰ LOW | Watch for spillover into AUD and NZD crosses into the Asian handover |
| 🇺🇸Friday, 14:00 GMT | Preliminary University of Michigan Inflation Expectations (August) | Tomorrow’s key US data point, following today’s PPI and jobless claims | 🟢 MEDIUM | A further cooling in inflation expectations would extend today’s Fed-pause narrative |
US Session Trade Ideas
Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s seven key instruments
USD/CAD
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CAD is firmer near 1.3945 even as a soft US PPI print would typically weigh on the Dollar, because Brent Crude Oil’s sharp decline is pressuring the oil-linked Loonie more than cooler US inflation is pressuring the greenback. Broader Dollar safe-haven demand tied to the Strait of Hormuz standoff is providing an additional layer of support beneath the pair.
Technical Outlook
Price is consolidating in the upper half of its recent 1.3900–1.4030 range. A confirmed close above 1.3980 would open a path back toward 1.4060, while a slip below 1.3900 risks a retest of 1.3850 should crude oil stage a relief bounce.
USD/CHF
Fundamental Backdrop
USD/CHF has climbed back above 0.8100 as broad Dollar safe-haven demand, tied to the unresolved Iran-US standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, outweighs the disinflationary signal from today’s PPI print. The Franc’s own haven appeal is being capped by the same broad Dollar bid that is lifting USD/CAD and pressuring risk assets more broadly against the greenback.
Technical Outlook
Price has cleared the 0.8100 pivot and is testing the 0.8140 area. A confirmed close above 0.8140 would open a path toward 0.8210, while a reversal back below 0.8090 would suggest the safe-haven Dollar bid is fading and expose a retest of 0.8040.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Fundamental Backdrop
Gold touched a fresh high since June near $4,450 during the Asian session before fading, as a firmer Dollar and cooling Hormuz-driven safe-haven flows encouraged profit-taking. The metal’s underlying bid remains intact, supported by continued central bank buying and lingering geopolitical risk, even as today’s soft PPI print has failed to spark an additional leg higher.
Technical Outlook
Price is consolidating in the lower half of its recent range after the overnight spike. A confirmed close back above $4,440 would reopen the path toward $4,480 and the cycle high, while a slip below $4,360 risks a deeper pullback toward $4,310 if the Dollar extends its safe-haven bid.
Brent Crude Oil
Fundamental Backdrop
Brent has fallen more than 2% and is snapping a six-session advance as forecasters lower global demand estimates for the year and US crude inventories remain elevated after last week’s 17.4-million-barrel build. The decline comes even as the Strait of Hormuz standoff persists, underscoring that near-term supply-demand positioning is currently outweighing the geopolitical risk premium.
Technical Outlook
Price has broken back below the $88.50 pivot and is testing the $87.60 support shelf. A confirmed close below $87.00 would open a path toward $85.00, while a recovery back above $89.50 would suggest the Hormuz risk premium is reasserting itself and expose a retest of $91.00.
Nasdaq 100
Fundamental Backdrop
The Nasdaq 100 is climbing close to 1% as the cooler PPI print reduces the odds of further Fed tightening, extending a rally fuelled by strong AI-infrastructure earnings from Nebius, CoreWeave and Super Micro. Cisco’s post-earnings decline on profit-taking is a partial offset, but broader breadth remains firmly in the index’s favor heading into the close.
Technical Outlook
Price is pressing against the top of its recent range after clearing the 29,900 pivot. A confirmed close above 30,160 would open a path toward a fresh record and the 30,400 zone, while a slip below 29,750 risks a pullback toward 29,450 should Fed commentary turn more hawkish.
BTC/USD
Fundamental Backdrop
Bitcoin’s price trends have turned negative on the day and week, with the daily open lower each session this week, even as today’s soft PPI print has lifted the odds of a September Fed pause. The persistent closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh on broader risk appetite, making it difficult for a risk-sensitive asset like Bitcoin to sustain gains despite an increasingly dovish rates backdrop.
Technical Outlook
Price is consolidating just below the $64,000 handle after failing to hold Wednesday’s bounce. A confirmed close below $62,800 would open a path toward $61,000, while a recovery back above $65,200 would suggest the Fed-pause narrative is beginning to dominate over Hormuz-driven caution.
Dogecoin (DOGE/USD)
Fundamental Backdrop
Dogecoin reversed lower after rejecting the resistance zone near $0.0725 during the Asian session, and the US afternoon’s soft risk tone in Bitcoin has kept the memecoin from stabilizing. Sentiment gauges show a fear-leaning market, and the coin’s characteristic high beta to broader crypto flows means it is amplifying, rather than cushioning, today’s cautious tone in digital assets.
Technical Outlook
Price is trading below its short-term moving averages after failing at resistance. A confirmed close below $0.0680 would open a path toward $0.0660, while a recovery back above $0.0730 would neutralize the near-term bearish setup and expose a retest of $0.0750.
US Session FAQ
Answers to the questions traders are asking about today’s session
Why didn’t the Dollar sell off after a softer-than-expected PPI print?
Why is Brent Crude Oil falling even though the Hormuz standoff hasn’t been resolved?
Why is Gold pulling back if today’s inflation data was Dollar-negative?
What should traders watch for the rest of the US session and into Friday?
US Session Summary — Thursday, 13 August 2026 (Live Update)
Thursday’s US session has been defined by a softer-than-expected July Producer Price Index, which printed flat on the month against a 0.2% forecast and cooled the annual headline rate to 4.7% from 5.5%, while core PPI matched forecasts at 4.2% year-on-year. Initial jobless claims rose to 209,000 against a 202,000 forecast, reinforcing a labor market that is cooling without cracking, and money markets have trimmed September Fed rate-hike odds to roughly 35% from near 50% earlier in the week. Equities have embraced the data, with the Nasdaq 100 up close to 1% near 30,080 and pressing toward record territory on renewed AI-trade strength, even as Cisco’s post-earnings slide caps some of the broader tape’s gains. The Dollar, however, is holding a firm tone near the 100.00 handle on the Dollar Index, as safe-haven demand tied to the unresolved Strait of Hormuz standoff offsets the disinflationary signal, keeping USD/CHF bid near 0.8135 and USD/CAD anchored near 1.3945 as falling oil prices weigh on the Loonie. In commodities, Brent Crude Oil has fallen more than 2% toward $87.85 as forecasters trim global demand estimates and US inventories remain elevated, while Gold has retreated to near $4,402 after touching an overnight high close to $4,450, with profit-taking against a firmer Dollar capping the advance. In digital assets, Bitcoin is trading near $63,610, still weighed down by Hormuz-related caution despite the cooler inflation backdrop, while Dogecoin has reversed lower near $0.0704 after rejecting resistance in the Asian session. Highest-conviction session idea: buy Nasdaq 100 dips toward 29,750, targeting 30,400 — a confirmed disinflationary PPI print combined with strong AI-sector earnings is a powerful tailwind, though a hawkish surprise from Fed speakers Hammack or Barkin remains a genuine source of two-way risk.
For the individual instruments: USD/CAD buy dips toward 1.3900, stop 1.3850, target 1.4030 — falling oil prices are a genuine tailwind for the pair, though a softer Dollar on further dovish Fed repricing is a real source of two-way risk. USD/CHF buy dips toward 0.8090, stop 0.8040, target 0.8210 — safe-haven Dollar demand tied to the Hormuz standoff is a genuine tailwind, though a confirmed de-escalation there is a real source of two-way risk. Gold buy dips toward $4,360, stop $4,310, target $4,480 — structural central bank demand and lingering geopolitical risk are a genuine tailwind, though continued Dollar firmness is a real source of two-way risk. Brent Crude Oil sell rallies toward $89.50, stop $91.00, target $85.00 — weaker demand forecasts and elevated US inventories are a genuine headwind, though the unresolved Hormuz standoff remains a real source of two-way risk. Nasdaq 100 buy dips toward 29,750, stop 29,450, target 30,400 — a disinflationary PPI print and strong AI-sector earnings argue for continuation, though hawkish Fed commentary is a real source of two-way risk. BTC/USD sell rallies toward $65,200, stop $66,500, target $61,000 — persistent Hormuz-driven risk aversion is a genuine headwind, though an increasingly dovish Fed repricing is a real source of two-way risk. Dogecoin sell rallies toward $0.0730, stop $0.0750, target $0.0660 — a rejection from resistance and weak broader crypto sentiment are a genuine headwind, though crypto’s characteristic volatility is a real source of two-way risk. The decisive variable for the remainder of the session is any further Fed commentary from Hammack and Barkin, with fresh Hormuz-related headlines and Friday’s University of Michigan inflation expectations survey the key wildcards heading into the Asian open. Size positions accordingly, and note that today’s backdrop carries genuine event risk that could reshape sentiment sharply into the close.
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