Week Ahead for European Markets: US CPI, German ZEW, and UK GDP Take Centre Stage as EUR/USD, Silver, and the FTSE Test Fresh Highs | Technical Analysis – European Session | 08-08-2026
Week Ahead for European Markets: US CPI, German ZEW, and UK GDP Take Centre Stage as EUR/USD, Silver, and the FTSE Test Fresh Highs
German ZEW Economic Sentiment Tue 11 Aug · US Consumer Price Index Wed 12 Aug · UK GDP & US Producer Prices Thu 13 Aug · US Retail Sales & Michigan Sentiment Fri 14 Aug · Full European session trade ideas and economic calendar for week of 10–14 August 2026
What to Expect From the European Session, 10–14 August 2026
With the Fed’s next decision not due until 16 September, this week’s dominant scheduled catalyst is Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index, which will shape how durable the market’s dovish repricing proves to be after new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signalled he wants the bond market — not the central bank alone — to help set the path for policy. A hot CPI print would complicate the case for a September pause even after the payrolls shock, while a soft one would likely extend the dollar’s slide and further lift EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Thursday’s US Producer Price Index and Friday’s Retail Sales round out a US data slate that will determine whether the labour-market shock is an isolated data point or the start of a broader slowdown.
On the European side of the calendar, Tuesday’s German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey and Wednesday’s final German HICP print are the week’s clearest scheduled inputs, arriving after data showed German factory orders and industrial production both rose more than expected in June — tentative signs that Europe’s largest economy is gaining momentum even as the European Central Bank held rates unchanged in July following a 25-basis-point hike in June, its first increase in three years. Markets currently price roughly one further ECB hike by year-end, a materially less hawkish path than the multiple-hike pricing seen earlier this summer, which has helped German Bund yields ease back from recent highs toward 3.14%. Thursday’s UK GDP print is the week’s key British data point, landing as sterling continues to grind higher despite its historically weak August seasonality, with the FTSE 100 also watching that release for confirmation of the broader UK growth picture.
Silver at $64.31/oz and Brent crude at $83.08 remain hostage to the unresolved situation in the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping traffic fell sharply this past week — Kpler data cited by Reuters showed only 33 vessels transiting the waterway between Monday and Thursday, down from 50 the week before — after reports of explosions near Iran’s Qeshm Island and renewed Houthi threats against tankers. A proposed Iran-Oman agreement to establish a safer transit corridor remains under discussion but unconfirmed, leaving the risk premium elevated heading into the new week. Meanwhile Ethereum at $1,910.40 and Dogecoin at $0.0702 have both firmed up alongside the broader crypto market as the weak jobs report cooled expectations for further Fed tightening, a shift that tends to support risk assets more broadly.
Three Forces That Will Drive the European Session — 10 to 14 August 2026
The scheduled and unscheduled catalysts that will set the direction across FX, rates, equities, and digital assets for the week of 10–14 August 2026
European Session Weekly Trade Ideas
Eight instrument-specific setups with entry, stop, and target levels for the week of 10–14 August 2026. Prices sourced from investing.com and TradingEconomics. All levels for reference only; not financial advice. Fund your deposit and visit capitalstreetfx.com for live signals and other markets.
Thesis — Buy Dips Toward 1.1465; Wednesday’s CPI Is the Real Catalyst This Week
EUR/USD has rallied hard on broad dollar weakness since Friday’s shock jobs miss, leaving the pair technically stretched near seven-week highs. CSFX favors buying confirmed pullbacks rather than chasing the move further, with Tuesday’s German ZEW survey and Wednesday’s US CPI the clearest scheduled risks to the current trend.
EUR/USD · Weekly Chart
Chart by TradingView
Thesis — Buy Confirmed Dips Toward 1.3370; Tuesday’s Labour Report and Thursday’s GDP Are the Key Tests
Sterling continues to trade largely off the dollar side of the equation following Friday’s payrolls shock, but this week hands the baton back to the UK docket with Tuesday’s labour market report and Thursday’s GDP release. Seasonality studies still flag August as GBP/USD’s historically weakest month, so CSFX sizes this position around confirmed dips rather than treating the current strength as a one-way bet.
GBP/USD · Weekly Chart
Chart by TradingView
Thesis — Buy the Rate-Cut-Driven Pullback Toward $60.80; Wednesday’s CPI Is the Key Swing Factor
Silver’s surge to a six-week high tracked falling US Treasury yields after Friday’s weak jobs report, compounded by continued structural industrial demand — Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores rose 62.5% year-over-year in June. CSFX treats Wednesday’s CPI as the key input for real yields this week: a soft print would likely extend the rally, while a hot one could trigger a sharp pullback toward the entry zone.
Silver (XAG/USD) · Weekly Chart
Chart by TradingView
Thesis — Buy Dips Toward $79.20; the Strait of Hormuz Risk Premium Has Not Faded
Brent’s renewed advance reflects fresh reports of explosions near Iran’s Qeshm Island and a sharp drop in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, even as a proposed Iran-Oman corridor agreement raises hopes of an eventual de-escalation. CSFX continues to frame Brent as a dip-buy given the situation remains unresolved, while respecting that a confirmed corridor deal could trigger a sharp pullback.
Brent Crude · Weekly Chart
Chart by TradingView
Thesis — Buy Dips Toward 10,705; Momentum Is Constructive But Thursday’s GDP Is a Genuine Test
The FTSE 100’s four-week win streak has been underpinned by strength in precious-metal miners and softer gilt yields, but the index remains sensitive to this week’s UK GDP release and the broader path of US rate expectations. CSFX still favors buying value on pullbacks rather than chasing strength into Thursday’s data.
FTSE 100 · Weekly Chart
Chart by TradingView
Thesis — Fade Bund Rallies (Long Yield) Toward 3.02%; Tuesday’s ZEW and Wednesday’s HICP Are the Key Tests
Bund yields have eased back from recent highs as hopes for a Strait of Hormuz resolution and softer US rate expectations have tempered the market’s ECB hike pricing to roughly one further move by year-end. CSFX expects Tuesday’s ZEW survey and Wednesday’s final German HICP to be the key scheduled tests of whether June’s stronger factory data extends into a more durable growth and inflation trajectory.
German 10Y Bund Yield · Weekly Chart
Chart by TradingView
Thesis — Buy Dips Toward $1,735; Wednesday’s CPI Sets the Broader Risk Tone
Ethereum has firmed up alongside Bitcoin and the wider crypto market after Friday’s weak jobs report cooled bets on further Fed tightening, with staking demand, spot ETH ETF flows, and layer-2 activity providing additional support. CSFX treats Wednesday’s CPI as the clearest scheduled risk to this week’s risk-on tone.
Ethereum (ETH/USD) · Weekly Chart
Chart by TradingView
Thesis — A Conservatively Sized Accumulation Play Into a Still-Cautious Sentiment Backdrop
Dogecoin continues to trade largely off broader risk sentiment, moving in step with Bitcoin after Friday’s weak jobs report cooled Fed rate-hike bets and lifted risk assets more broadly. CSFX frames this as a small, conservatively sized accumulation trade rather than a high-conviction directional call, given how directly it could be whipsawed by Wednesday’s CPI print.
Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) · Weekly Chart
Chart by TradingView
European Session — Economic Calendar, 10–14 August 2026
All times approximate, Central European Time (CET). Key releases for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Silver, Crude Oil, FTSE 100, EU 10Y, Ethereum, and Dogecoin, culminating in Wednesday’s US CPI report.
| Day | Time (CET) | Release | Impact | Forecast | CSFX View |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, 10 August | |||||
| Mon | 10:30 CET | Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (August) | LOW | N/A | A soft early gauge of investor risk appetite heading into a heavier data week, with the Strait of Hormuz situation likely weighing on the headline figure. |
| Tuesday, 11 August | |||||
| Tue | 08:00 CET | UK Labour Market Report (June/July) | MED | N/A | Employment change and average earnings data ahead of Thursday’s GDP print; a key input for gauging whether the UK labour market is cooling alongside its US counterpart. |
| Tue | 11:00 CET | German ZEW Economic Sentiment (August) | MED | N/A | CSFX’s key scheduled eurozone data point ahead of Wednesday’s HICP — a firm reading would reinforce June’s stronger factory orders and industrial production figures. |
| Wednesday, 12 August | |||||
| Wed | 08:00 CET | German Final HICP (July) | MED | N/A | Confirmation of the preliminary German inflation reading, feeding directly into the market’s roughly one-more-hike ECB pricing for year-end. |
| Wed | 14:30 CET | US Consumer Price Index (July) | HIGH | N/A | The week’s dominant scheduled catalyst for the dollar, and therefore for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, silver, and crypto. A hot print would complicate September pause pricing even after Friday’s shock payrolls miss; a soft one would likely extend the dollar’s slide. |
| Thursday, 13 August | |||||
| Thu | 08:00 CET | UK Monthly GDP & Industrial Production (June) | MED | N/A | CSFX’s key scheduled UK data point of the week — a firm print would support the case for sterling strength continuing despite August’s historically weak seasonality. |
| Thu | 11:00 CET | Eurozone Industrial Production (June) | LOW | N/A | Secondary confirmation of the eurozone growth picture following Tuesday’s ZEW survey and Wednesday’s German inflation data. |
| Thu | 14:30 CET | US Producer Price Index (July) & Initial Jobless Claims | MED | N/A | The last significant US inflation and labour-market reads before Friday’s retail sales; a further soft surprise would reinforce Friday’s payrolls shock and add to September pause pricing. |
| Friday, 14 August | |||||
| Fri | 11:00 CET | Eurozone Trade Balance (June) | LOW | N/A | A secondary eurozone external-demand gauge; unlikely to move markets materially given the week’s focus on US data. |
| Fri | 14:30 CET | US Retail Sales (July) | HIGH | N/A | After the shock jobs miss, this print will test whether US consumer spending is also cracking — a soft reading would add further weight to September Fed pause expectations. |
| Fri | 16:00 CET | US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary, August) | MED | N/A | A closely watched read on US consumer confidence and inflation expectations, rounding out the week’s US data slate. |
| Fri | All Day | Strait of Hormuz — Ongoing Watch | HIGH | N/A | No scheduled resolution is expected, but confirmation or collapse of the proposed Iran-Oman shipping corridor would likely be the single largest driver of the following week’s opening gaps across Brent, silver, and the dollar. |
CSFX View: A Shock Jobs Report Hands the European Session a Genuinely Two-Way US CPI Week
The week of 10–14 August 2026 across the European session is defined by the aftershocks of Friday’s stunningly weak US jobs report — a loss of roughly 23,000 payrolls against forecasts for an 80,000 gain — which has pushed September Fed pause odds to roughly 56% and left the dollar broadly on the back foot. EUR/USD at 1.1562 and GBP/USD at 1.3493 both enter the week near multi-week highs, with Tuesday’s German ZEW survey, UK labour report, and Wednesday’s US CPI the clearest scheduled tests of whether that move extends. Silver at $64.31/oz and the FTSE 100 at 10,891.86 have both benefited from falling yields, while Brent crude at $83.08 and German Bund yields at 3.14% continue to trade off the still-unresolved situation in the Strait of Hormuz, where a proposed Iran-Oman corridor agreement offers hope of de-escalation but remains unconfirmed.
In FX, CSFX’s framework treats Wednesday’s US CPI as the week’s single most important catalyst — buy confirmed dips on EUR/USD and GBP/USD into the print rather than chasing the current dollar weakness. Both pairs are technically stretched after last week’s rally, and with Friday’s jobs report having delivered a genuine surprise, this week’s inflation data carries real two-way potential to either extend or reverse the dovish repricing. In commodities, silver’s rate-cut-driven surge to a six-week high looks more durable than a peak given the scale of Friday’s labour-market miss, while Brent’s advance reflects a genuine and still-unresolved supply risk rather than pure speculation. The FTSE 100’s four-week win streak is constructive but still faces Thursday’s UK GDP and the broader path of US rate expectations as genuine two-way risks. In crypto, Ethereum and Dogecoin both warrant conservative position sizing given how directly they could be whipsawed by Wednesday’s inflation print.
CSFX’s highest-conviction setup for the week is buying silver on a confirmed dip toward $60.80, given the scale of Friday’s labour-market surprise and its implications for real yields. EUR/USD is a buy on dips to 1.1465 contingent on Wednesday’s CPI; GBP/USD is a buy on confirmed dips to 1.3370 ahead of Thursday’s GDP; Brent crude is a buy on dips to $79.20 given the still-unresolved Strait of Hormuz situation; the FTSE 100 is a buy on dips to 10,705 pending Thursday’s UK data; German Bund yields are a fade-the-rally (long yield) play toward 3.02%; Ethereum is a $1,735 accumulation play; and Dogecoin is a conservatively sized $0.0645 accumulation trade given the still-cautious broader sentiment backdrop. CSFX will issue intra-week alerts if Wednesday’s CPI delivers a material surprise, if the Strait of Hormuz situation escalates or a corridor deal is confirmed, or if this week’s UK and German data come in well outside expectations. Follow all updates at capitalstreetfx.com.
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