weekly report

Everything that was expected for Monday’s open as of Friday’s close has changed. Between Saturday morning and Sunday night, the situation escalated through at least five distinct developments — none of which point toward de-escalation. The Strait of Hormuz is closed again after a 24-hour window of partial reopening. Iranian Revolutionary Guard gunboats fired on ships without radio warning. Trump accused Iran of a “total violation” of the ceasefire. The ceasefire itself expires on Wednesday. US negotiators are flying to Pakistan for talks on Monday with a deadline that is two days away. Markets open into this — not into the ceasefire-progress narrative that was circulating on Friday afternoon.