Asian Market Report: RBA Hikes to 4.60% as Oil & Yields Rise | 29 Sep 2026
Asian Session Report: RBA Hikes to 4.60% as Oil and Yields Weigh on Asian Stocks
Asian markets traded softer as US Treasury yields held near 19-year highs and oil stayed elevated. The Nikkei 225 fell about 1.2%, the KOSPI about 0.6% and the Hang Seng about 0.6%, while gold bounced from an eight-week low near $4,110. The Australian dollar was the standout, rising toward 0.7050 after the RBA lifted its cash rate 25bp to 4.60%.
The main driver is the US-Iran standoff, which keeps oil high and reinforces inflation fears and bets on further Fed tightening; Trump and Iranian officials both denied reports of sanctions relief. Weak Treasury auctions added to the bond sell-off, with the 10-year yield at its highest since June 2007. Traders now watch the Qatar-mediated talks, US jobs and confidence data, and Friday’s payrolls.
Snapshot: Asian session, 29 September 2026 (~01:30-04:40 GMT)Top Stories Moving the Market
Oil edges higher as Trump and Iran deny sanctions-relief reports
Brent settled at $105.28 on Monday after touching $108.83, before Saudi pipeline flows recovered to about 3.5m bpd. Qatari mediators are due to hold separate talks with Iran and the US this week.
Ten-year yield holds near its highest since June 2007
Monday’s close near 5.24% was the highest since the 28 February US attack on Iran, and the 30-year sits near 5.54%. Markets price about a 68% chance of another Fed hike in October.
Asian stocks slip as yields climb; refiners and power names lead the Nikkei lower
The KOSPI fell about 0.6% and the Hang Seng trades near 24,499 (-0.6%). Wall Street closed lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 down 0.77% and the Nasdaq down 0.92%.
Aussie jumps after the RBA delivers its fourth hike of 2026, to 4.60%
The 25bp hike matched expectations and the RBA kept the door open to more tightening, after household spending stalled in August (0.0% vs +0.4% forecast). Governor Bullock’s press conference is next.
Technical Summary
USD/JPY
FX · Dollar supported by yields, intervention risk caps ralliesThe pair consolidates near 157.4 after bouncing from a one-week low, held below the 200-day average near 158.45. Rising US yields support the dollar, while intervention risk after Finance Minister Katayama’s remarks caps rallies. A hold above 157.00 keeps 157.75 and 158.45 in view; a break lower opens 156.50.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R1157.75 | S1157.00 |
| R2158.45 | S2156.50 |
| R3159.00 | S3156.00 |
AUD/USD
FX · RBA hike to 4.60% lifts the Aussie off its lowest since 4 AugustThe Aussie jumped from 0.7019 to near 0.7050 after the RBA’s fourth hike this year, reclaiming the 100-day SMA near 0.7044. A hawkish press conference could extend gains to the 50-day SMA near 0.7093; a dip below 0.7000 exposes 0.6975.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R10.7093 | S10.7044 |
| R20.7149 | S20.7000 |
| R30.7200 | S30.6975 |
Copper (COMEX HG)
Metals · Firm dollar and yields cap the rebound; strike vote loomsCOMEX copper trades near $6.62, well below the record $6.83 set on 22 September, pressured by a firm dollar and high yields. The Escondida strike vote (28-30 September) is a two-way risk: a strike would lift prices, a settlement would remove the supply premium. Below 6.66 the bias stays bearish toward 6.55.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R16.6600 | S16.5500 |
| R26.7800 | S26.4800 |
| R36.8300 | S36.4000 |
Wheat (CBOT ZW)
Grains · Tariff cuts and Black Sea ceasefire hopes weighWheat is near its lowest since late August, down about 12% from the 795 high on 2 September, as US-China tariff cuts on farm goods and Russia-Ukraine ceasefire hopes weigh. Sellers defend 707; a close below 683.50 opens 670. A rebound above 718 would neutralise the bearish tilt.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R1707.00 | S1683.50 |
| R2717.25 | S2670.00 |
| R3730.00 | S3656.00 |
Hang Seng
Index · Range-bound as bond yields and weak China profits cap sentimentThe index trades near 24,499 after Monday’s 24,642 close, inside a 24,275-24,767 range as higher global yields and the weakest Chinese industrial profit growth this year keep sentiment cautious. Below 24,767 the bias is bearish toward 24,275; a break above 24,850 would target 25,000.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R124,614 | S124,455 |
| R224,767 | S224,275 |
| R325,000 | S324,000 |
Dogecoin
Crypto · DOGE slips below $0.093 as Bitcoin weakensDOGE trades near $0.0925 after failing to hold the $0.10 area reached on 21-22 September, and Investing.com’s short-term technical signals read Strong Sell. Bitcoin near $82,900 leaves it exposed to risk-off flows. Below 0.0945 the bias is bearish toward 0.0900 and 0.0850.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R10.0945 | S10.0900 |
| R20.0970 | S20.0850 |
| R30.1000 | S30.0800 |
Solana
Crypto · SOL retreats from the $122-123 areaSOL trades near $116.8 after slipping about 3% from the $122-123 area seen on Monday as Bitcoin and the wider crypto market weaken. Below 120 the bias is bearish toward 115 and 112; a recovery above 123.50 would negate the setup.
| Resistance | Support |
|---|---|
| R1120.00 | S1115.00 |
| R2123.00 | S2112.00 |
| R3128.00 | S3108.00 |
What to Expect from the Next Session
- RBA press conference (~05:30 GMT). Governor Bullock’s guidance on further hikes will shape AUD/USD; watch 0.7044 as support and 0.7093 as resistance.
- US data and Fed speakers (~13:00-14:00 GMT). Case-Shiller, JOLTS (forecast 7.23M) and Consumer Confidence (forecast 90.1), plus Williams, Waller, Bowman and Barr; a hawkish tone keeps yields and the dollar firm.
- Qatar-mediated US-Iran talks. Iran hopes for a final US reply by Tuesday; a breakthrough could pull Brent below $100, while a stalemate keeps it near $105.
- USD/JPY levels. Watch 157.75 and 158.45 on the upside; intervention risk rises toward 159-160, where Citi sees Tokyo likely to act.
- Escondida and Centinela strike votes (to 30 Sep). The result decides whether copper rebuilds a supply premium toward $6.66-$6.78 or extends lower.
What Is Moving the Market
Oil, Hormuz and inflation
Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz proposal, and reports of sanctions relief for nuclear concessions were denied by both sides. With diesel at record highs and Brent above $100, inflation fears persist and traders keep pricing more central-bank tightening.
Bond rout and Fed hike bets
Weak Treasury auctions and strong data (GDPNow near 5.0%) pushed the 10-year yield to its highest since June 2007. Fed Governor Cook said AI and oil keep inflation pressure up, so higher yields raise discount rates and hit equities and crypto.
RBA and yen policy
The RBA hiked 25bp to 4.60% and stayed open to more, supporting the Aussie against a firm dollar. Japan’s Katayama called an undervalued yen problematic and agreed with Bessent to step up cooperation, capping USD/JPY.
Risk assets and metals
Nikkei, KOSPI and Bitcoin (about $82,900) fell with yields, while China posted its weakest industrial profit growth this year. Gold bounced from an eight-week low near $4,110 and copper stayed heavy.
Economic Calendar / Events
| Time (GMT) | Country | Event | Forecast vs. Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | AU | Household Spending (Aug) | Actual 0.0% MoM vs +0.4% forecast; YoY 6.8% vs 7.0% |
| 04:30 | AU | RBA Interest Rate Decision | Actual 4.60% (+25bp) vs 4.60% forecast; Prev 4.35% |
| ~05:30 | AU | RBA Governor Bullock press conference | No forecast; guidance on further hikes |
| ~13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City HPI (Jul, YoY) | Forecast 2.20% vs Prev 2.10% |
| ~14:00 | US | JOLTS Job Openings (Aug) | Forecast 7.23M vs Prev 7.271M |
| ~14:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence (Sep) | Forecast 90.1 vs Prev 89.4 |
| Session | US | Fed speakers: Williams, Waller, Bowman, Barr | No forecast; tone on further hikes |
| 28-30 Sep | CL | Escondida and Centinela strike votes | Result due by 30 Sep |
| 00:30 Wed | US | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | Prev +1.786M |
Summary
Tuesday’s Asian session was defined by higher-for-longer rate fears: Brent near $105 and a 10-year yield near 5.24% weighed on equities and crypto, while the RBA’s hike lifted the Aussie. USD/JPY held near 157.4 under intervention risk, copper stayed heavy near $6.62, and Dogecoin and Solana slid about 3%. Traders should watch Bullock’s press conference, US JOLTS and consumer confidence, and any headline from the Qatar-mediated US-Iran talks.
FAQ
Q:Why did AUD/USD rise after the RBA?
A:The RBA raised the cash rate 25bp to 4.60%, its fourth hike this year, and said it remains committed to bringing inflation back to target. The pair jumped toward 0.7050 and now needs to hold the 100-day SMA near 0.7044.
Q:Why is USD/JPY stuck near 157.4?
A:High US yields support the dollar, but Japan’s Finance Minister called an undervalued yen problematic and agreed with the US to step up cooperation. Citi sees intervention likely near 160, which caps rallies.
Q:Why are Asian shares and crypto falling?
A:US yields near multi-year highs and about 68% odds of an October Fed hike raise discount rates and borrowing costs. The Nikkei, KOSPI, Bitcoin, Dogecoin and Solana all sold off in that risk-off tone.
Q:What could move copper today?
A:The Escondida and Centinela strike votes (28-30 September), the dollar and US yields. A strike would support prices, while a settlement would remove the supply premium built since the $6.83 record on 22 September.
Q:Why is wheat under pressure?
A:Prices sit near the lowest since late August as US-China tariff cuts on farm goods and Russia-Ukraine ceasefire hopes weigh. A rebound above 718 would be needed to neutralise the bearish tilt.
