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USD/JPY breaks above 155 at 155.30 as oil holds near $108 ahead of the Fed decision on 16 September 2026

USD/JPY Hits Above 155 as Oil Holds Highs | Technical Analysis | Asian Session | 16 Sep 2026

September 16, 2026
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Asian Session Live Update — Wednesday, 16 September 2026 | Capital Street FX
Asian Session · Wednesday, 16 September 2026 · Live Update

USD/JPY Hits a Fresh One-Week High Above 155 as Oil Holds Near Highs and Asia Braces for the Fed, With Crypto Steadying After the CLARITY Act Defeat

USD/JPY · AUD/JPY · Aluminium · Wheat · Nikkei 225 · DOGE/USD · ADA/USD — live Asian market outlook today, updated through the trading session

Asian markets are trading cautiously on Wednesday, hours ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision due later today (US time), with money markets still pricing close to 90–92% odds of a 25-basis-point hike after last week’s hot August CPI print. The move follows Tuesday’s separate blow to crypto legislative hopes and a fresh leg higher in oil, which is holding near multi-month highs after Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was knocked offline by a drone strike and Houthi forces stepped up threats to Red Sea shipping. US 10-year Treasury yields brushed a level last seen in 2007 on Tuesday, and that backdrop of elevated yields and energy-driven inflation risk is the dominant force shaping Asian trade this morning. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is holding a firmer tone after Tuesday’s SoftBank Group-led rebound, supported by a softer Yen, while regional peers including the Kospi and Hang Seng remain more guarded as AI capital-expenditure jitters linger alongside the macro backdrop. Currency and rates markets are squarely focused on the Fed. USD/JPY has pushed to a fresh one-week high above the 155.00 handle in the Asian session, extending Tuesday’s rebound as Fed-hike odds near 92% and oil-driven inflation risk keep the Dollar broadly supported, even as the pair struggles to clear the mid-155s with the Bank of Japan’s own meeting starting Thursday and a 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% now fully priced in. AUD/JPY is a touch firmer near 110.65, with Yen softness offsetting the Australian Dollar’s own weakness — AUD/USD itself remains pinned near a monthly low around 0.7100–0.7120 as a broadly firmer Dollar and mixed Chinese data continue to weigh. In commodities, Aluminium is holding just above $3,250 a tonne, capped by Dollar strength and rate-hike expectations even as tight Gulf supply following the regional conflict offers some underlying support, while Wheat has eased toward 720 cents a bushel, retreating from last month’s roughly three-and-a-half-year high as hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire ease some Black Sea supply-risk premium, even though a tighter USDA stocks outlook continues to underpin the market. Crypto markets are stabilizing after Tuesday’s setback, when the US Senate’s Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act failed its cloture vote in a 49-50 tally, dashing hopes for comprehensive market-structure legislation this year and sending Bitcoin briefly toward the $76,000 area. Dogecoin is holding just above $0.083, and Cardano is trading near $0.202, both consolidating a little below Tuesday’s pre-vote levels as the initial shock fades and traders turn back toward the Fed and Bank of Japan decisions as the week’s next catalysts. Ready to act on today’s setups? Open an Account with Capital Street FX.
Section 1 · Live Market Headlines

Asian Market News — Live Now, 16 September 2026

Top-moving headlines shaping the Asian market outlook today, updated through the session

Critical

Oil Holds Near Highs After Saudi Pipeline Outage and Fresh Houthi Threats

Brent is hovering near $108 a barrel and WTI near $104–$105 after a drone strike on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline forced its shutdown, with repairs estimated at three to five weeks. Iran-backed Houthi forces have also stepped up threats to Red Sea shipping lanes that Saudi cargoes now depend on, keeping a geopolitical risk premium firmly in place right before the Fed’s decision.

Commodities & Geopolitics
Critical

FOMC Decision Due Later Today; Markets Price ~90–92% Odds of a Hike

The Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day meeting later on Wednesday (US time), with money markets pricing close to 90–92% odds of a 25-basis-point hike after last week’s hotter-than-expected August CPI print. US 10-year Treasury yields brushed a level last seen in 2007 on Tuesday, keeping the Dollar broadly supported into the announcement.

Central Banks
High

CLARITY Act Fails Senate Cloture Vote, Rattling Crypto Ahead of the Fed

The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act fell short of the 60 votes needed to advance in a 49-50 Senate tally on Tuesday, with several Democrats who had been negotiating the bill voting no. The setback effectively ends comprehensive US crypto market-structure legislation for 2026 and briefly sent Bitcoin toward $76,000, though regulators at the SEC and CFTC are expected to keep advancing rules on their own.

Crypto & Policy
High

USD/JPY Hits Fresh One-Week High Above 155.00 Ahead of the Fed

USD/JPY has climbed to its best level in roughly a week, pushing above 155.00 in Asian trade as near-92%-priced Fed hike odds and oil-driven inflation risk lend the Dollar a genuine tailwind. A fully-priced Bank of Japan hike to 1.25% at Thursday-Friday’s meeting is helping cap the pair’s advance into the mid-155s.

Forex
High

AUD/JPY Firms as Yen Softness Offsets a Weak Australian Dollar

AUD/JPY is edging higher near 110.65 even as AUD/USD itself remains pinned close to a monthly low around 0.7100–0.7120, with broad Yen weakness against the Dollar carrying through into the cross and offsetting the Aussie’s own softness against a broadly firmer US Dollar Index.

Forex
Medium

Aluminium Steady, Wheat Eases; Nikkei Firms; Dogecoin and Cardano Stabilize

Aluminium is holding just above $3,250 a tonne as Dollar strength offsets tight Gulf supply. LME aluminium prices Wheat is easing toward 720 cents a bushel on Russia-Ukraine ceasefire hopes despite a tighter USDA stocks outlook. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is firmer near 63,500 on Yen weakness, while Dogecoin (near $0.083) and Cardano (near $0.202) stabilize after Tuesday’s CLARITY Act-driven selloff.

Commodities & Crypto

Live · Updated through the Asian morning session, Wednesday 16 September 2026

Section 2 · Economic Calendar

Asia & Global Economic Calendar This Week — 16 September 2026

Key releases and events shaping price action through the rest of the week

Asia and global economic calendar for the week of Wednesday, 16 September 2026, listing scheduled times, events, expectations, impact level and market read.
Time Event Forecast / Detail Impact Market Read
🇺🇸Ongoing (since Sunday) Saudi East-West Pipeline Outage Drone strike from Iraq; repairs estimated at 3–5 weeks 🔴 CRITICAL Keeps a structural supply-risk premium in crude oil
🇺🇸Wednesday, 16 September (US afternoon) FOMC Decision Markets pricing ~90–92% odds of a 25bp hike after hot August CPI 🔴 CRITICAL The decisive event risk this week for the Dollar, yields and equities
🇪🇬Ongoing Houthi Threats to Red Sea Shipping Targeting cargoes rerouted after the Saudi pipeline outage 🔴 CRITICAL Adds a fresh layer of risk to Saudi crude reaching export markets
🇺🇸Tuesday, 15 September (passed) Senate CLARITY Act Cloture Vote Failed 49-50, short of the 60 votes needed to advance 🟢 MEDIUM Ends near-term US crypto market-structure legislation hopes
🇯🇵Thursday–Friday, 17–18 September Bank of Japan Meeting Markets fully price a 25bp hike to 1.25% 🔴 CRITICAL Key swing factor for USD/JPY, AUD/JPY and broader Yen crosses
🇺🇸This week US 10-Year Treasury Yield Brushed a level last seen in 2007 on Tuesday 🔴 CRITICAL Underpins the broader Dollar-strength, risk-off backdrop in Asia
🇺🇸Ongoing USDA Stocks & Production Outlook Tighter 2026/27 wheat stocks view from recent USDA reports 🟢 MEDIUM Underpins Wheat even as ceasefire hopes cap near-term upside

Section 3 · Trade Ideas

Asian Session Trade Ideas — USD/JPY, Nikkei 225, Dogecoin and More

Technical setups and fundamental context across the session’s seven key instruments

USD/JPY

FX · ~155.30 — Fresh One-Week High Ahead of the Fed
155.30
▲ Up on the day, intraday range roughly 154.85–155.50
▪ BULLISH USD/JPY — Buy Dips Toward 154.30, Target the 156.50 Zone
Buy Dip154.30
Stop Loss153.70
Take Profit156.50

Why This Setup

Near-92%-priced Fed hike odds and oil-driven inflation risk are lending the Dollar a genuine tailwind into today’s decision, pushing the pair to its best level in a week, even though a fully-priced Bank of Japan hike to 1.25% on Thursday-Friday is a real source of two-way risk that could cap gains once the Fed outcome is known.

U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen, daily chart
Chart by TradingView

AUD/JPY

FX · ~110.65 — Firmer as Yen Weakness Offsets a Soft Aussie
110.65
▲ Up marginally on the day, intraday range roughly 110.30–110.90
▪ BULLISH AUD/JPY — Buy Dips Toward 109.60, Target the 112.00 Zone
Buy Dip109.60
Stop Loss108.90
Take Profit112.00

Why This Setup

Broad Yen softness against the Dollar, which is carrying through into the cross, is a genuine tailwind for AUD/JPY even as AUD/USD itself sits near a monthly low, though a hawkish surprise from Thursday-Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting is a real source of two-way risk that could reverse Yen weakness sharply.

Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen, daily chart
Chart by TradingView

Aluminium

Commodity · ~$3,255/t — Steady as Dollar Strength Offsets Tight Supply
3,255.00
▲ Broadly flat on the day, intraday range roughly $3,241–$3,268
▪ BEARISH ALUMINIUM — Sell Rallies Toward 3,300, Target the 3,150 Zone
Sell Rally3,300
Stop Loss3,340
Take Profit3,150

Why This Setup

A broadly firmer Dollar heading into today’s Fed decision and rising rate-hike expectations are a genuine headwind for dollar-priced Aluminium, though tight Gulf supply following the regional conflict, which has disrupted regional output, is a real source of two-way risk that could keep a floor under prices.

Aluminium (ALIUSD), daily chart
Chart by TradingView

Wheat

Commodity · ~721¢/bu — Easing on Ceasefire Hopes, Stocks Outlook Still Tight
721.75
▼ Down modestly on the day, intraday range roughly 715–728¢/bu
▪ BULLISH WHEAT — Buy Dips Toward 710.00, Target the 745.00 Zone
Buy Dip710.00
Stop Loss698.00
Take Profit745.00

Why This Setup

A tighter USDA stocks and production outlook remains a genuine tailwind underpinning Wheat even after its retreat from last month’s roughly three-and-a-half-year high, though renewed hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, which would ease Black Sea shipping-risk premium, are a real source of two-way risk that could extend the pullback.

Wheat Cash Contract, daily chart
Chart by TradingView

Nikkei 225

Index · ~63,500 — Firmer as Yen Weakness Supports Exporters
63,500
▲ Up modestly on the day, intraday range roughly 63,190–63,780
▪ BULLISH NIKKEI 225 — Buy Dips Toward 62,800, Target the 65,000 Zone
Buy Dip62,800
Stop Loss62,200
Take Profit65,000

Why This Setup

A softer Yen and Tuesday’s sharp rebound in SoftBank Group are a genuine tailwind for the price-weighted index, even as broader unease about AI capital-expenditure plans and elevated global bond yields ahead of the Fed decision are a real source of two-way risk that could pressure the index if US tech sentiment sours.

Japan 225 Index, daily chart
Chart by TradingView

DOGE/USD

Crypto · ~$0.0838 — Stabilizing After the CLARITY Act Selloff
0.0838
▼ Down modestly on the day, intraday range roughly $0.0815–$0.0860
▪ NEUTRAL-TO-BULLISH DOGE — Buy Dips Toward 0.0800, Target the 0.0920 Zone
Buy Dip0.0800
Stop Loss0.0760
Take Profit0.0920

Why This Setup

The initial shock from Tuesday’s failed CLARITY Act cloture vote appears to be fading, which is a genuine tailwind for a relief bounce, though continued regulatory uncertainty and the Fed’s rate decision later today are a real source of two-way risk that could reignite broader risk-off selling in majors and drag DOGE lower again.

Dogecoin / US Dollar, daily chart
Chart by TradingView

ADA/USD

Crypto · ~$0.2015 — Cardano Stabilizing Near Weekly Lows
0.2015
▼ Down modestly on the day, intraday range roughly $0.1980–$0.2070
▪ NEUTRAL-TO-BULLISH ADA — Buy Dips Toward 0.1950, Target the 0.2250 Zone
Buy Dip0.1950
Stop Loss0.1880
Take Profit0.2250

Why This Setup

Ongoing network-upgrade progress and a fading initial shock from the CLARITY Act’s Senate defeat are a genuine tailwind for a stabilization in ADA, though the loss of near-term US regulatory clarity and today’s Fed decision are a real source of two-way risk that could keep the coin pinned near its recent range lows.

Cardano / US Dollar, daily chart
Chart by TradingView

Section 4 · Frequently Asked Questions

Asian Session FAQs — 16 September 2026

Quick answers to what’s moving markets this session

Why are Asian markets cautious on Wednesday?
Two forces dominate. First, the Federal Reserve’s rate decision is due later today (US time), with markets pricing close to 90–92% odds of a 25-basis-point hike, and US 10-year Treasury yields brushed a level last seen in 2007 on Tuesday. Second, oil is holding near multi-month highs after Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was knocked offline and Houthi forces stepped up threats to Red Sea shipping, keeping an inflation-risk premium in place right into the announcement.
What’s driving USD/JPY and AUD/JPY this session?
USD/JPY has pushed to a fresh one-week high above 155.00 as near-92%-priced Fed hike odds and oil-driven inflation risk support the Dollar, even as a fully-priced Bank of Japan hike to 1.25% on Thursday-Friday keeps the pair from clearing the mid-155s outright. AUD/JPY is a touch firmer near 110.65 as broad Yen weakness offsets the Australian Dollar’s own softness, with AUD/USD itself pinned near a monthly low around 0.7100–0.7120.
Why did crypto markets sell off, and are Dogecoin and Cardano recovering?
The US Senate’s Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act failed its cloture vote on Tuesday in a 49-50 tally, falling short of the 60 votes needed to advance and effectively ending comprehensive US crypto market-structure legislation for 2026. The news briefly sent Bitcoin toward $76,000. Dogecoin, near $0.0838, and Cardano, near $0.2015, are both stabilizing a little below their pre-vote levels as the initial shock fades, though both remain vulnerable to renewed selling if the Fed’s decision later today adds to broader risk-off pressure.
What’s happening with Aluminium and Wheat?
Aluminium is holding just above $3,250 a tonne as broad Dollar strength and rate-hike expectations offset tight Gulf supply following the regional conflict. Wheat is easing toward 720 cents a bushel, retreating from last month’s roughly three-and-a-half-year high as hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire ease some Black Sea supply-risk premium, even though a tighter USDA stocks and production outlook continues to underpin the market.
What should traders watch for the rest of the week?
Four things stand out. First, today’s Federal Reserve decision, priced at close to 90–92% odds of a 25-basis-point hike. Second, whether the Saudi pipeline outage or further Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping reignite oil-driven inflation risk. Third, Thursday-Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting, where a 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% is fully priced and could set the tone for Yen crosses into the weekend. Fourth, whether crypto markets can build a durable recovery from Tuesday’s CLARITY Act setback or remain vulnerable to further regulatory-driven selling.

Asian Session Summary — Wednesday, 16 September 2026 (Live Update)

Wednesday’s Asian session is being defined by a cautious holding pattern hours ahead of the Fed. Oil is holding near multi-month highs, with Brent near $108 a barrel and WTI near $104–$105, after a drone strike knocked Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline offline and Houthi forces stepped up threats to Red Sea shipping lanes that Saudi cargoes now depend on. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is firmer near 63,500 as a softer Yen and Tuesday’s sharp SoftBank Group rebound support the price-weighted index, while regional peers including the Kospi and Hang Seng remain more guarded as AI capital-expenditure jitters persist alongside the broader macro backdrop of elevated global bond yields.

Currency markets remain squarely focused on today’s Fed decision. USD/JPY has pushed to a fresh one-week high above 155.00 as near-92%-priced Fed hike odds and oil-driven inflation risk support the Dollar, even as a fully-priced Bank of Japan hike to 1.25% on Thursday-Friday keeps the pair from clearing the mid-155s outright. AUD/JPY is a touch firmer near 110.65 as broad Yen weakness offsets the Australian Dollar’s own softness against a broadly firmer Dollar. Aluminium is holding just above $3,250 a tonne on Dollar strength, while Wheat has eased toward 720 cents a bushel on Russia-Ukraine ceasefire hopes even as a tighter USDA stocks outlook underpins the market. In crypto, Dogecoin near $0.0838 and Cardano near $0.2015 are both stabilizing after Tuesday’s CLARITY Act-driven selloff, which briefly sent Bitcoin toward $76,000.

Highest-conviction session idea: stay long USD/JPY dips into today’s Fed decision while hike odds remain near 92%, lean long AUD/JPY on Yen-driven softness while being mindful of a hawkish BoJ surprise, and treat any crypto bounce in Dogecoin and Cardano as tactical rather than structural until the regulatory picture clears — while treating today’s FOMC decision and Thursday-Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting as the two binary events that could either confirm or unwind this week’s cross-asset positioning.

For the individual instruments: USD/JPY buy dips toward 154.30, stop 153.70, target 156.50 — near-92%-priced Fed hike odds and oil-driven Dollar demand are a genuine tailwind, though a fully-priced BoJ hike is a real source of two-way risk. AUD/JPY buy dips toward 109.60, stop 108.90, target 112.00 — broad Yen softness is a genuine tailwind, though a hawkish BoJ surprise is a real source of two-way risk. Aluminium sell rallies toward 3,300, stop 3,340, target 3,150 — Dollar strength and rate-hike expectations are a genuine headwind, though tight Gulf supply is a real source of two-way risk. Wheat buy dips toward 710.00, stop 698.00, target 745.00 — a tighter USDA stocks outlook is a genuine tailwind, though Russia-Ukraine ceasefire hopes are a real source of two-way risk. Nikkei 225 buy dips toward 62,800, stop 62,200, target 65,000 — Yen softness and the SoftBank rebound are a genuine tailwind, though AI-spending jitters and elevated global yields are a real source of two-way risk. DOGE/USD buy dips toward 0.0800, stop 0.0760, target 0.0920 — a fading CLARITY Act shock is a genuine tailwind, though today’s Fed decision is a real source of two-way risk. ADA/USD buy dips toward 0.1950, stop 0.1880, target 0.2250 — ongoing network-upgrade progress is a genuine tailwind, though lost near-term regulatory clarity is a real source of two-way risk. The decisive variable for the rest of the day is today’s Fed decision and whether Middle East supply risk continues to escalate or fades. Size positions accordingly, and note that fast-moving Fed, BoJ and Gulf-related headlines carry genuine event risk that could exaggerate moves in either direction.

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Capital Street FX · Asian Session Daily Technical Analysis · Wednesday, 16 September 2026

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© 2026 Capital Street FX. Report cross-checked and refreshed against live coverage from Reuters, Investing.com, Bloomberg, FXStreet, Trading Economics, CNBC, CoinDesk and regional Asian financial press as of the Asian morning session, 16 September 2026. Prices are indicative intraday levels and may differ from your broker’s feed. Charts in this report are daily-timeframe snapshots captured from TradingView on 16 September 2026 and are static images, not live, auto-updating feeds.