FTSE 100 Today: Shell, the ECB and a BoE Hike Collide as Bulls Fight for 10,648 | Market Outlook | 29 Oct 2026
LIVE DESK VIEW | FTSE 100 (UKX) | Thursday 29 October 2026
FTSE 100 Today: Shell, the ECB and a BoE Hike Collide as Bulls Fight for 10,648
10,694.50 +7.96 (+0.07%) Open 10,687.02 · High 10,722.77 · Low 10,643.25 Daily chart · RSI 50.27 · Captured 07:02 GMT
Desk bias, next 24 hours Mildly bullish Holds while price stays above 10,647.50
Market Overview
The FTSE 100 faces its busiest session of the week with the index pinned at 10,694.50, locked inside three averages between 10,647.50 and 10,704.80 and capped by a triangle roof near 11,000. Futures point to a firmer open, up about 0.3%, but Shell’s results at 07:00 GMT, US inflation data at 12:30 GMT and the European Central Bank (ECB) at 13:15 GMT all land before London closes, with Brent near $114 and a Bank of England (BoE) hike priced for 5 November. Bulls keep control above 10,647.50: a long from 10,650–10,680 targets 10,775 first, and a break of 10,595 voids the setup and opens 10,450.
Key highlights
- Bias: Mildly bullish above 10,647.50; neutral inside the average cluster.
- Levels: Support 10,665.52 and 10,647.50; resistance 10,704.80 and 10,775.
- Event risk: Shell 07:00 GMT, US PCE and GDP 12:30 GMT, ECB 13:15 GMT.
FTSE 100 Trade Ticket for the Next 24 Hours
FTSE 100
LongMedium convictionValid until 07:00 GMT Fri 30 Oct
- Entry zone
- 10,650–10,680
- Average 10,665
- Stop loss
- 10,595
- −70 points
- Take profit 1
- 10,775
- +110 points
- Take profit 2
- 10,890
- +225 points
- Take profit 3
- 10,985
- +320 points
Average entry 10,665. Risk 70 points. Reward:risk 1.6 to TP1, 3.2 to TP2, 4.6 to TP3.
Why this trade: Long from the average cluster at 10,648–10,666, backed by calm gilts after the Budget and firm bank shares.
Cancel if: A daily close under 10,595, or an ECB or Shell surprise that sends price through 10,648.
Position risk: The stop risks about 0.7% of the average entry. Cancel if unfilled by 16:30 GMT Thu 29 Oct.
FTSE 100 Price Ladder: Every Level That Matters Today
| Price | Level | What it is | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10,985 | Resistance 4, TP3 | 52-week high area; roof near 11,000 | +291 points |
| 10,890 | Resistance 3, TP2 | Mid-October swing high | +196 points |
| 10,775 | Resistance 2, TP1 | Late-October range ceiling | +81 points |
| 10,704.80 | Resistance 1 | Upper average | +10 points |
| 10,694.50 | Price now | Captured 07:02 GMT | 0 points |
| 10,650–10,680 | Entry zone | Average 10,665 | −45 to −15 points |
| 10,665.52 | Support 1 | Middle average | −29 points |
| 10,647.50 | Support 2 | Lower average; 28 Oct low 10,643 | −47 points |
| 10,595 | Stop loss | Beneath the 30 Sep low | −100 points |
| 10,450 | Support 3 | Triangle floor, approximate | −245 points |
FTSE 100 Technical Summary: Averages Hold Near 10,648
- Trend
- Price coils inside a rising triangle, with the roof near 11,000 and the floor near 10,450.
- Averages
- Above 10,665.52 and 10,647.50; just under 10,704.80.
- Momentum
- RSI 50.27, on the midline and under its 53.90 average.
Bull vs Bear Signal Board for the FTSE 100
| Signal | Reading | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| Trend | Triangle, 10,450 floor, 11,000 roof | Neutral |
| Moving averages | Inside the 10,647.50–10,704.80 cluster | Neutral |
| Momentum | RSI 50.27 under 53.90 average | Neutral |
| UK rate path | BoE hike to 4.00% priced near 94% | Bearish |
| UK Budget | £15 billion headroom, gilts steady | Bullish |
| UK banks | Lloyds, Barclays, NatWest up 1.6%–2.0% | Bullish |
Net score: 2 bullish, 3 neutral, 1 bearish
Next 24 Hours on the GMT Clock
Thu 29 Oct
Shell third-quarter results High
Largest oil weight; sets energy tone against 10,704.80
Thu 29 Oct
US PCE inflation and third-quarter GDP High
Hot prints lift yields and test 10,648
Thu 29 Oct
ECB rate decision; hold at 2.50% expected High
A hold is priced; the December signal moves sterling and gilts
Thu 29 Oct
Lagarde press conference High
French bond stress and her own future are the wildcards
Thu 29 Oct
London close; daily candle settles Medium
A close beyond 10,648 or 10,775 sets Friday’s tone
If-Then Playbook for the FTSE 100
If price pulls back into 10,650–10,680
Then go long; targets 10,775, 10,890, 10,985
If price reaches 10,775 without filling the entry
Then wait for a retest of 10,704.80 or 10,665.52
If a 4-hour candle closes above 10,890
Then hold for the extension toward 10,985
If the daily candle settles beneath 10,595
Then drop the idea; next support 10,450
Catalyst Wire: Fundamental News for the FTSE 100
ECB decision at 13:15 GMT, hold at 2.50% expected
A Reuters poll found 70 of 73 economists expect a hold, with 64 pencilling in a December hike. French borrowing costs and Lagarde’s future may dominate the press conference.
Source: Reuters, 29 Oct 2026
UK Budget keeps £15 billion headroom; gilts and banks steady
Headroom fell from £23.6 billion in March, yet the 10-year gilt yield slipped to 5.323%. Lloyds closed up 1.7%, Barclays 1.6% and NatWest 2.0% after a smaller-than-feared bank surcharge; GSK fell about 4.8%.
Source: Investing.com, Reuters, Brit Brief, Share Talk, 28 Oct 2026
Fed holds at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 vote
Chair Warsh offered no forward guidance, the dollar held near 102 and the two-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.678%. US PCE and GDP follow at 12:30 GMT.
Source: Reuters via Investing.com, FXStreet, 28–29 Oct 2026
Brent near $114 slips on US-Iran talks but is up 17% in October
De-escalation hopes trimmed Brent about 1%, while Houthi attacks and Hormuz risk keep a premium in the price. Shell reports at 07:00 GMT.
Source: Free Press Journal, Investing.com, Shell, 29 Oct 2026
BoE hike to 4.00% priced near 94% for next week
September inflation of 3.5% has swung expectations toward a rise; 16 of 17 research houses expect it. Housebuilders and rate-sensitive names are most exposed.
Source: BlueGamma, FinChiefs, 28 Oct 2026
Conclusion
Desk verdict Long 10,650–10,680; stop below 10,595
We favour the long from 10,650–10,680, aiming for 10,775 first. Settling beneath 10,595 cancels it, while a four-hour close above 10,890 extends the move toward 10,985. The main risk is the 13:15 GMT ECB decision, where a hawkish tone could push price through 10,648.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the FTSE 100 outlook for the next 24 hours?
Mildly bullish while price holds above 10,647.50, with 10,775 and 10,890 as first targets and 10,985 beyond.
What is the FTSE 100 trade setup today?
A pullback long in the 10,650–10,680 band, risking 70 points for 110 to the first target.
Why does the ECB decision matter for the FTSE 100?
A hold is expected, but the December signal can move sterling and gilt yields, which feed banks and exporters in the index.
What time is the ECB decision today in GMT?
The decision lands at 13:15 GMT, followed by the Lagarde press conference at 13:45 GMT. London is on GMT after the clocks changed on 25 October.
