Netflix Stock Forecast: Can $69.40 Support Hold
Stocks to Watch Shares, earnings catalyst
Friday 16 October 2026
NFLX
Netflix, Inc. Nasdaq, United States, streaming
70.79
−1.82 (−2.51%) at 15:05 GMT, range 69.82–71.90
Thursday close 72.61, +2.89%
Netflix (NFLX) Stock: Can 69.40 Support Hold Into Tuesday's Results After Job Cuts?
- Catalyst
- Job cuts, new content chief
- Status
- Q3 results due 20 Oct
- Desk sentiment
- 0, neutral
- Next earnings
- 20 Oct, after the US close
Desk Summary
Netflix stock fell 2.5% to 70.79 by 15:05 GMT after the company named Peter Rice to replace content chief Bela Bajaria, a day after reports of about 1,000 job cuts. The shares, down 23% this year, face third-quarter results on Tuesday, when options price a move of about 9%. The desk prefers buying 69.40–69.82 with a stop at 68.80 and turns short only on a daily close below 69.30. Answer: 69.40 holds for now; a close below opens 67.
Key highlights
- Catalyst: About 1,000 job cuts and a new content chief before Tuesday's results.
- Levels: Resistance 72.10–73.07 and 74.50–75.30; support 69.37–69.82, then 66.54–67.31.
- Backdrop: Q3 guidance is $0.82 EPS on $12.86bn revenue; options imply 9%.
Netflix Trade Setups: Buy 69.40 Support, Sell Only Below 69.30
Plan A Buy the support Long, low conviction
Entry zone69.40–69.82
- Stop loss
- 68.80
- Target 1
- 72.10
- Target 2
- 73.00
- Reward:risk
- 3.1 and 4.2
Average entry 69.61, risk $0.81 a share. Today's 69.82 low and Wednesday's 69.37 low held, with the 20-day average at 70.33 just above.
Plan B Short the breakdown Short, on confirmation
TriggerDaily close below 69.30
- Entry
- 69.10
- Stop loss
- 70.10
- Target 1
- 67.31
- Target 2
- 66.54
- Reward:risk
- 1.8 and 2.6
Risk $1.00 a share. A close below the October floor targets the 67.31 shelf and the 66.54 low of 5 October.
Earnings risk: A daily close below 68.80 cancels Plan A; Tuesday's results after 20:00 GMT can gap the shares about 9% either way.
Netflix Sentiment Heat Map: Neutral, 0
Average target
$91.4229% above the priceCost cuts
~1,000 jobsAbout 6% of staffEPS growth
$0.82 guideUp about 40% on yearMargin goal
31.5%Full-year operating margin targetLeadership
New content chiefBajaria exits after a decadeAnalyst targets
CutsWedbush $90, BMO $125Trend
Below 50-day50-day average at 75.10Drawdown
−23% this year43% under 124.86 highNet score 0 on a scale of −16 to +16. Each tile scores −2 to +2.
Catalyst File: Job Cuts and a New Content Chief Before Results
| Job cuts | About 1,000 roles, roughly 6% of employees |
|---|---|
| Scale | Largest layoff round in at least four years, according to reports |
| Content chief | Bela Bajaria leaves after nearly a decade |
| Successor | Peter Rice, former Disney and Fox executive, starts 26 October |
| Cost disclosure | No severance charge or savings target disclosed yet |
| Reporting change | Engagement report becomes annual from 2027 |
| Next test | Third-quarter results on 20 October after the US close |
Reaction Map: Results Decide Which Side of the Range Breaks
Close above 73.07
74.50, then 75.30
Hold longs and trail the stop to 71.30.
Range holds
69.40–73.07 range
Buy near 69.60 and take profit near 72.
Close below 69.30
67.31, then 66.54
Run Plan B and keep the stop at 70.10.
NFLX Chart: Price Holds the 69.40 Floor Below the 72–73 Ceiling
- Base: Since the 18 September gap down from 75.30, price has ranged between 66.54 and 73.87.
- Averages: The 20-day average at 70.33 sits just below the price and the 50-day at 75.10 above; RSI(14) reads 46.9.
- Ceiling: The 72.10–73.07 zone capped rallies on 9 and 15 October, below the 72.38–75.30 gap.
Netflix by the Numbers: The Bar for Tuesday's Results
- Q3 revenue guide
- $12.86bn
- About 12% growth
- Q3 EPS guide
- $0.82
- Consensus $0.82
- Operating margin guide
- 33.2%
- Third quarter 2026
- Q2 revenue
- $12.56bn
- Missed $12.59bn
- Q2 EPS
- $0.80
- Beat $0.79
- Implied move
- ±9.3%
- Options after results
Catalyst Calendar in GMT
16 Oct
US close, first weekly close after the job cuts
20 Oct
Netflix third-quarter results after the US close
21 Oct
US open, first session after the results
26 Oct
Peter Rice starts as chief content officer
28 Oct
Federal Reserve rate decision
Netflix Company News Behind the Move
Netflix Cuts About 1,000 Jobs, Roughly 6% of Staff
Reports call it the largest layoff round in at least four years; Netflix has not disclosed a charge or savings target. 24/7 Wall St. and Invezz, 14 Oct 2026
Peter Rice Replaces Bela Bajaria as Chief Content Officer
The former Disney and Fox executive starts on 26 October; co-CEO Ted Sarandos called him an effective at-scale operator. Netflix announcement via 24/7 Wall St., 15 Oct 2026
Wedbush and BMO Lower Targets but Keep Buy Ratings
Wedbush cut its target to $90 from $105 and BMO to $125 from $135 ahead of Tuesday's results. Invezz, 16 Oct 2026
Netflix Price Targets: Where the Street Sees the Stock
36 analysts rate Netflix a Moderate Buy on average, with a mean target of $91.42, about 29% above the price, according to TipRanks.
Bottom Line
Holds above 69.40; a close below opens 67.
Netflix is cutting costs and replacing its content chief just before a results test that options price at about 9% either way. Plan A buys 69.40–69.82 with a stop at 68.80 and targets 72.10 and 73.00, kept small because Tuesday's results can gap through any level. A daily close below 69.30 turns the view short toward 67.31 and 66.54; a close above 73.07 opens the 74.50–75.30 gap.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Netflix stock falling today?
Netflix named Peter Rice to replace content chief Bela Bajaria after reports of about 1,000 job cuts, and the shares fell 2.5% to 70.79 by 15:05 GMT.
What is the Netflix trade setup?
The desk prefers a long at 69.40–69.82 with a stop at 68.80 and targets at 72.10 and 73.00, switching short on a daily close below 69.30.
What does Netflix need to show in its third-quarter results?
Netflix guided to revenue of about $12.86bn, up roughly 12%, an operating margin of 33.2% and EPS of $0.82, in line with the consensus.
When does Netflix report third-quarter earnings?
Netflix reports third-quarter results on Tuesday 20 October after the US close, usually shortly after 20:00 GMT.
