Markets Brace for NFP, ECB Forum, and Central Bank Speeches

Anticipation Builds: NFP Figures and ECB Symposium Poised to Unleash Market Tumult

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continued to unravel its composure, cascading beneath the psychological 97.00 barrier—its weakest realm in years—effectively dissolving the prior week’s fleeting momentum. With investors’ eyes peeled, an avalanche of economic revelations looms, likely to carve the next trajectory for the beleaguered Greenback.

Stateside, the data deluge initiates on June 30 with releases of the Chicago PMI and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey. As the calendar turns to July 1, market watchers brace for the definitive S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, paired with heavyweight metrics: ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job vacancies, the RCM/TIPP Economic Confidence Index, Construction Outlays, and the weekly snapshot of API crude inventories.

Momentum intensifies on July 2 with mortgage demand readings via MBA, downsizing figures from Challenger, and the ADP’s private payroll barometer. Energy traders will also eye the EIA’s update on petroleum reserves. But the crescendo arrives July 3, when the marquee Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), joblessness rate, Factory Orders, trade ledger figures, weekly unemployment filings, and both the terminal S&P Global and ISM Services PMIs strike simultaneously. U.S. markets will then enter hibernation on July 4, commemorating Independence Day.

On the European front, the EUR/USD has exhibited six consecutive months of bullish vigor, firmly lodging above 1.1700 to conclude H1 2025. Eurozone attention pivots to Sintra, Portugal, where the ECB’s Central Banking Forum convenes beginning June 30, sharing the limelight with Germany’s Retail Sales and initial Inflation Pulse.

July 1 invites an intricate web of figures: Germany’s Labor Force data, the finalized HCOB Manufacturing PMIs for Germany and the broader euro area, plus the Eurozone’s preliminary inflation estimates. On July 2, jobless rates for the euro bloc drop alongside Day 2 of the ECB assembly. The curtain call arrives July 3 with HCOB’s Services PMI and minutes from the ECB’s prior policy huddle. July 4 rounds out the sequence with Germany’s Factory Orders, EMU’s Producer Price snapshots, and Construction PMI data.

Sterling, while slightly winded by Friday’s breather, still stood tall, pushing GBP/USD beyond the 1.3700 watermark—an altitude unseen since October 2021. The UK macro rollout commences on June 30 with a potent cocktail: Final Q1 GDP, the Current Account ledger, Capital Investment flows, Home Loan Approvals, BoE’s Consumer Credit metric, and the M4 Money Aggregate. July 2 offers Nationwide Housing Prices and the closing iteration of Manufacturing PMI, followed by the BoE’s Decision Maker Panel (DMP) Survey and Services PMI on July 3. July 4 will unveil the Construction PMI in solitude.

The Japanese Yen, bolstered by robust haven appetite, pressured USD/JPY into a retreat toward the 143.70 arena. Japan’s weekly macro theater opens June 30 with Industrial Output, Residential Starts, and Construction Orders. July 1 casts focus on the pivotal Tankan Survey, the terminal Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI, and Consumer Optimism figures. On July 3, bond transaction data headlines, while July 4 brings Household Spending and the final Services PMI by Jibun Bank.

Meanwhile, the Aussie Dollar (AUD) maintained its resilience, eyeing a fourth successive monthly ascent, remaining buoyant above the 0.6500 latitude. Australia’s economic schedule launches with Private Sector Credit data on June 30, quickly followed by Housing Credit and the MI Inflation Tracker. July 1 introduces the final Manufacturing PMI and Commodity Price figures. Then on July 2, Retail Activity, Building Approvals, and Home Construction stats arrive. The week concludes July 3 with the final Services PMI and International Trade balances.

Oracles of Monetary Policy in the Limelight:

• June 30: Fed’s Bostic, Goolsbee; ECB’s Lagarde
• July 1: Fed’s Powell; BoJ’s Ueda; BoE’s Bailey; ECB’s Lagarde
• July 2: ECB’s Lagarde
• July 3: BoE’s Taylor; Fed’s Bostic
• July 5: BoE’s Bailey

Central Bank Assembly Worth Monitoring:

• National Bank of Poland (NBP): July 2