National Grid (NG.) Stock: Can 1,185 Support Hold After the Guidance Lift, Ahead of Results? | Trade Idea | 20 Oct 2026
Stocks to Watch Shares, guidance catalyst
Tuesday 20 October 2026
NG.
National Grid plc LSE, UK, utilities
1,203.5
+14.0 (+1.18%) at 12:34 GMT, range 1,192.5–1,205.5
Monday close 1,189.5, −2.30% of that session
National Grid (NG.) Stock: Can 1,185 Support Hold After the Guidance Lift, Ahead of Results?
- Catalyst
- FY27 EPS growth guidance lifted
- Status
- Rebounding ahead of 5 November results
- Desk sentiment
- +2, mildly bullish
- Next earnings
- 5 Nov 2026, 07:00 GMT expected
Desk Summary
National Grid trades at 1,203.5p at 12:34 GMT, up 1.18% from Monday’s 1,189.5p close, while the FTSE 100 is down about 0.6%. The pre-close statement of 5 October lifted FY27 EPS growth guidance to slightly above 13–15%, helped by about £130m of one-off Ventures gains (company RNS). JPMorgan has since cut its target to 1,310p. We prefer Plan A, buying 1,185–1,190 on a pullback. Answer: Yes, 1,185 holds while daily closes stay above it; a close below 1,174 ends the view.
Key highlights
- Catalyst: Pre-close statement lifts FY27 EPS growth above the 13–15% guidance
- Levels: Resistance 1,214–1,218 and 1,252–1,265; support 1,185–1,190 and 1,155–1,160
- Backdrop: FTSE 100 weaker on French unrest and US–Iran tensions
National Grid Trade Setups: Buy 1,185–1,190 Support, Break Above 1,218
Plan A Buy the support Long, medium conviction
Entry zone1,185–1,190
- Stop loss
- 1,174.0
- Target 1
- 1,214.0
- Target 2
- 1,252.0
- Reward:risk
- 2.0 and 4.8
Average entry 1,187.5, risk 13.5p a share. The zone holds the 1,189.4 average and Monday’s 1,188 low; the stop sits under the band.
Plan B Buy the breakout Long, on confirmation
TriggerDaily close above 1,218.0
- Entry
- 1,219.0
- Stop loss
- 1,207.0
- Target 1
- 1,252.0
- Target 2
- 1,265.0
- Reward:risk
- 2.8 and 3.8
Risk 12.0p a share. A close above 1,218 clears the 16 and 19 October highs; the stop returns below the 1,214–1,218 band.
Earnings risk: Half-year results are due 5 November, expected 07:00 GMT, and can gap the share through either stop; a close below 1,174 cancels Plan A.
National Grid Sentiment Heat Map: Mildly Bullish, +2
Trend
Channel brokenPrice above 1,189.4 averageRelative strength
+1.2% todayFTSE 100 down 0.6%Momentum
RSI 62.9Above signal line 56.8Guidance
Above 13–15%FY27 EPS growth, 5 OctoberAnalysts
HoldMean target 1,301.75pTarget cuts
JPMorgan 1,310pDown from 1,440pEarnings quality
£130m one-offVentures fair value gainsGilt yields
RisingLong-dated yields higher, reportedNet score +2 on a scale of −16 to +16. Each tile scores −2 to +2.
Catalyst File: Guidance Lift Rests on Ventures Gains
| Announcement | Pre-close statement for the six months to 30 September 2026 |
|---|---|
| Guidance | FY27 EPS growth now slightly above 13–15%; no figure given |
| Source of lift | NG Ventures & Other, about £130m above expectations in the first half |
| Drivers | One-off fair value gains on two NG Partners deals; stronger interconnectors |
| Regulated units | In line with expectations; US profit weighted to second half |
| Net debt | Half-year closing net debt broadly in line with full-year guidance |
| Next date | Half-year results on Thursday 5 November 2026 |
Reaction Map: Three Paths Around 1,185 and 1,218
Close above 1,218
1,218, then 1,252
Plan B buys the breakout; targets 1,252 and 1,265
Range holds
1,185–1,218
Plan A buys 1,185–1,190; first target 1,214
Close below 1,185
1,174, then 1,160
Plan A void below 1,174; 1,155–1,160 next
NG. Chart: Channel Broken, 1,185 Support, 1,218 Ceiling
- Trend: Price broke the falling channel in early October and now trades above the 1,189.4 average.
- Averages: 20-day and 50-day averages converge at 1,157.8–1,159.8; slower line 1,189.4; RSI(14) 62.9.
- Ceiling: 1,214–1,218 holds the 16 and 19 October highs; above it, 1,252–1,265 capped July.
National Grid by the Numbers: 4.1% Yield, 18.2 Times Earnings
- Market value
- £60.27bn
- FTSE 100 constituent
- Price to earnings
- 18.2
- Trailing twelve months
- Dividend yield
- 4.08%
- Last payment 32.14p, 23 July
- FY26 underlying operating profit
- £5.68bn
- +8.8% year on year
- FY26 underlying EPS
- 78.0p
- Base for FY27 growth
- 52-week range
- 1,096.5–1,428.5
- 15.8% below the high
Catalyst Calendar in GMT
20 Oct
London close; test of 1,189.4 average
23 Oct
Weekly close; setups valid to here
26 Oct
London close moves an hour later
5 Nov
Half-year results, time expected
National Grid Company News Behind the Move
National Grid lifts FY27 earnings growth outlook
Ventures to add about £130m in the first half; regulated units in line; EPS growth now slightly above 13–15%. National Grid RNS, 5 Oct 2026
JPMorgan trims National Grid target to 1,310p
The note cut the target from 1,440p and kept Overweight; the new level sits 9.5% above the 1,185.5p price. Ad Hoc News, 19 Oct 2026
National Grid gives back Friday’s gain, falls 2.30%
Shares closed at 1,189.5p after Friday’s 1,217.5p, while the FTSE 100 fell 1.1%. AJ Bell, 19 Oct 2026
National Grid Price Targets: Where the Street Sees the Stock
Eight analysts polled by TipRanks rate it Hold, with a mean target of 1,301.75p, 8.2% above the price. Investing.com’s 15-analyst poll shows Buy and 1,345.33p.
Bottom Line
Yes, while 1,185 support holds
The 5 October pre-close statement lifted FY27 EPS growth guidance to slightly above 13–15%, though about £130m of the first-half gain is one-off. Plan A buys 1,185–1,190 with a stop at 1,174 and targets at 1,214 and 1,252. A daily close above 1,218 turns the view to Plan B; a close below 1,174, or a weak regulated showing on 5 November, cancels it.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why is National Grid stock rising today?
Shares are up 1.18% at 1,203.5p (12:34 GMT), rebounding from Monday’s 2.30% fall while the FTSE 100 trades lower; the 5 October guidance lift remains the main support.
What is the National Grid trade setup?
Plan A buys 1,185–1,190 with a stop at 1,174 and targets of 1,214 and 1,252. Plan B buys a daily close above 1,218, with a stop at 1,207.
How much extra first-half profit does National Grid expect from Ventures?
About £130m above expectations, from one-off fair value gains on two NG Partners deals and stronger interconnectors, according to the 5 October pre-close statement.
When does National Grid report its next earnings?
Half-year results are due on Thursday 5 November 2026, expected at 07:00 GMT; the company has confirmed the date but not the time.
