U.S. Jobless Claims Fall to 217K, Beating Forecasts

U.S. weekly jobless claims drop unexpectedly.

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits unexpectedly declined last week, indicating continued stability in the labor market despite a slowdown in hiring, which is making it harder for laid-off workers to find new jobs.

According to the Labor Department, initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 217,000 for the week ending July 19. This figure came in below economists’ expectations of 226,000, as surveyed by Reuters.

Claims have eased after reaching an eight-month high in June. While layoffs have occurred, most employers appear hesitant to let workers go, instead opting to reduce hiring as they await more clarity on President Donald Trump’s trade policies.

There’s still a possibility claims may rise in the coming weeks, as July typically sees seasonal increases due to temporary closures of auto manufacturing plants. The uncertain timing of these shutdowns can affect the seasonal adjustments in the data.

Despite a slowdown in job creation compared to last year, the labor market remains resilient giving the Federal Reserve room to hold off on further interest rate cuts, even as it monitors inflation risks tied to tariffs. Meanwhile, President Trump continues to pressure the Fed to lower borrowing costs.

Economists widely anticipate that the Federal Reserve will maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate within the 4.25%–4.50% range at next Wednesday’s policy meeting. The Fed has already lowered rates three times in 2024, with the most recent cut occurring in December.

Although the labor market remains relatively stable, businesses’ reluctance to increase hiring has resulted in prolonged unemployment for many individuals who lose their jobs.

According to the latest jobless claims report, continuing claims—representing the number of people receiving benefits after their initial application—rose by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.955 million for the week ending July 12. This figure serves as a proxy for hiring activity and coincides with the period in which the government conducts its survey for July’s unemployment rate.

While the elevated level of continuing claims could pose upward pressure on the unemployment rate, most economists still expect it to remain steady at 4.1% this month. Given a shrinking labor supply—partly due to reduced immigration—the economy now only needs to generate around 100,000 jobs or fewer each month to keep pace with the working-age population’s growth.