US Jobs Report, Fed Rate-Cut Plans in Focus This Week

Looking Ahead: US Jobs Report vs. Fed’s Rate-Cut Plans.

The US Dollar (USD) showed signs of recovery on the weekly chart, rebounding after three consecutive weekly declines as investors prepare for the critical Federal Reserve meeting on September 17. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains near the lower end of its yearly range, around 98.00, despite reversing losses. US markets will be closed on Monday, September 1, for Labor Day. Key economic releases include the ISM Manufacturing and final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI on September 2, followed by Construction Spending, RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, MBA Mortgage Applications, JOLTs Job Openings, Factory Orders, the Fed Beige Book, and API crude oil inventories. Later in the week, attention turns to ADP Employment Change, Balance of Trade, ISM Services PMI, final S&P Global Services PMI, EIA crude oil stockpiles, and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate.

EUR/USD recorded losses this week but rebounded from lows near 1.1600. Key eurozone data includes the final HCOB Manufacturing PMI, unemployment, flash inflation, Services PMI, Producer Prices, Construction PMI, Retail Sales, Factory Orders, revised Q2 GDP, and final Q2 employment figures from September 1–5.

GBP/USD extended its losing streak, capped around 1.3550. Highlights this week include Nationwide Housing Prices, Mortgage Approvals, final S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI, BoE M4 Money Supply, Consumer Credit, DMP, Construction PMI, Retail Sales, and Halifax House Prices.

USD/JPY remained near 147.00, finishing slightly higher after two pullbacks. Key releases include Capital Spending, final S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI, weekly Foreign Bond Investment, Household Spending, Average Cash Earnings, and preliminary Coincident and Leading Economic Indexes.

AUD/USD maintained bullish momentum, climbing past 0.6500. The schedule features final S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI, Building Permits, Private House Approvals, Business Inventories, Commodity Prices, Q2 Current Account and GDP, Ai Group Industry Index, Balance of Trade, and Household Spending.

Central bank speeches:

• ECB’s Schnabel, Cipollone, and Lagarde on September 1;
• BoJ’s Himino on September 2, followed by ECB’s Elderson and Machado;
• Fed’s Kashkari on September 3, alongside ECB’s Lagarde and BoE’s Mann and Breeden;
• Fed’s Williams on September 4, ECB’s Cipollone;
• Fed’s Goolsbee on September 5.

Upcoming policy meetings:

• NBP on September 3 (5.00% actual vs. 4.75% expected);
• BNM on September 4 (2.75% actual vs. 2.75% expected).