WTI Oil Rises Toward $64.50 on Supply Concerns, Fed Bets.
WTI edges up toward $64.50 amid supply concerns linked to the Russia-Ukraine situation.
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW:
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hovers near $64.00 in early European trade on Monday, regaining ground as expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut counter the drag from new U.S. tariffs on Indian imports. Traders now await the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) weekly crude inventory data due Tuesday.
Despite hotter-than-expected U.S. PCE inflation in July, markets are increasingly pricing in a September Fed rate cut, with CME Fed Watch showing an 89% chance of a 25-bps reduction. Such expectations weigh on the U.S. Dollar, providing support to dollar-denominated oil prices.
Further upside for WTI comes from renewed supply concerns tied to Russia-Ukraine tensions. Ukrainian drone strikes hit Russian energy facilities, including the Kursk Nuclear Plant and the Ust-Luga export terminal, while President Trump warned of more sanctions should peace talks stall.
Conversely, Trump’s move to double tariffs on Indian imports to 50%—in response to India’s continued purchases of Russian crude and defense equipment—has fueled fears of weaker global demand, posing a near-term risk for oil prices.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CHART:
Technical Overview:
Crude Oil is trading within an up channel.
Crude Oil is moving above all the Moving Averages (SMA).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a Bullish Zone, while the Stochastic oscillator suggests a Positive trend.
Immediate Resistance level: 65.15
Immediate support level: 63.60
HOW TO TRADE CRUDE OIL
Crude Oil, after a sharp decline, is attempting to regain momentum as it found support and gradually reversed to the upside. The price is now holding steady and has broken its immediate resistance with a strong bullish candle. If it sustains above this level, further tests of key resistance levels could follow.