Daily Crypto Analysis – Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin & Dogecoin | Capital Street FX

Bitcoin is experiencing a confluence of negative drivers simultaneously. U.S. tariff policy uncertainty is creating a broader risk-off environment, pushing institutional investors to reduce speculative crypto exposure. Geopolitical tensions — including the U.S.–Iran nuclear standoff — are reinforcing safe-haven flows into Gold and Treasuries at the expense of crypto. New U.S. regulatory measures are imposing compliance costs across exchanges. Additionally, an AI-sector equity selldown on Wall Street is dragging correlated risk assets lower, and even persistent buying by institutional holder Strategy is proving insufficient to reverse the macro-driven downtrend. Bitcoin is now approximately 50% below its October 2025 record high of $126,272.

An RSI approaching 30 (currently at 29.65) is technically indicating oversold conditions, which historically have preceded short-term relief bounces or counter-trend rallies. However, oversold RSI readings alone are not sufficient to signal a trend reversal — especially in a macro-driven bearish environment. For a meaningful reversal, traders are typically looking for RSI divergence (price making lower lows while RSI makes higher lows), a reclaim of key moving averages (the nearest being the SMA 10 at $67,005), or a significant macro catalyst shift such as a Fed rate cut or regulatory clarity. Caution is advised when fading the broader downtrend.

Ethereum’s critical near-term support is the $1,800 psychological level. A decisive daily close below this level would likely accelerate losses toward $1,740, with the $1,720 zone emerging as the next meaningful support cluster. Further breakdown could see ETH revisiting the $1,600–$1,650 area, which represents a strong historical demand zone. On the upside, clearing the $1,920 resistance would be required to suggest any short-term trend shift, with the $2,000–$2,020 zone serving as the next major ceiling. Ethereum is also being impacted by structural headwinds including Layer-2 competition and continued U.S. ETH ETF outflows.

Dogecoin’s political narrative — its association with the “Department of Government Efficiency” branding popularized in the U.S. — is proving to be a short-lived catalyst. Market sentiment is shifting as the novelty of the political connection fades, and fundamental drivers (lack of utility relative to other smart-contract platforms, high correlation with BTC, declining retail trading volumes) are reasserting themselves. The broader meme coin market is deteriorating simultaneously, with risk appetite contracting across the crypto space as macro headwinds dominate. DOGE is now below a key falling wedge support, which is a technically bearish signal suggesting the path of least resistance is lower.

The Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence Index is a leading indicator of U.S. consumer spending and risk appetite. A reading above the forecast of 87.4 (previous: 84.5) would signal improving consumer sentiment, potentially lifting risk assets including crypto in a short-term relief trade. Conversely, a miss below forecast could reinforce the current risk-off mood, adding further selling pressure across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins. Given that crypto markets are highly sensitive to U.S. macro sentiment shifts in the current environment, this release carries above-average event risk for crypto traders today.

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