Commodity Market Analysis — March 13, 2026 | Gold · WTI Crude · Silver · Copper | Capital Street FX
Commodity Market Analysis
March 13, 2026
Today’s Commodity Macro Picture
If you walked into your trading desk this Friday morning thinking it would be quiet, the markets had other plans. March 13, 2026 opens with commodity markets still digesting one of the most violent geopolitical shocks in recent memory — the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz on March 9. That single event pushed Brent crude to a session high near $120 and WTI to within striking distance before a partial reversal set in.
As of early Friday, oil has pulled back to the mid-$90s as reports emerge of limited tanker traffic resuming through the Strait, and President Trump has publicly stated a desire for a swift resolution. Markets are in a highly binary state — every diplomatic headline can move crude ±$10 in seconds. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) has spiked to 121, its highest level since early COVID-19.
Precious metals are navigating a classic geopolitical stagflation setup: gold and silver remain structurally supported by safe-haven flows, yet the strong U.S. Dollar (DXY ~97.57) and rising Treasury yields act as natural headwinds. Gold has corrected from its all-time high near $5,595 and is now testing the $5,072–$5,130 zone — a make-or-break level heading into a data-heavy Friday. Copper meanwhile is holding its structural bull case firmly, underpinned by AI infrastructure and EV-related demand, with LME copper having touched a historical high of $13,238/ton in January.
The Strait of Hormuz carries ~20% of global oil supply. Any re-escalation with Iran can trigger immediate +$10–$20/bbl moves in Brent. Monitor Reuters/Bloomberg headlines continuously through today’s session. This is a binary newsflow-driven market — standard technical analysis is temporarily secondary to real-time geopolitical developments.
Today’s economic calendar stacks a heavy Friday punch: the U.S. GDP Second Estimate for Q4 2025 is due at 7:30 AM ET (forecast: 1.4%), followed by Core PCE Price Index (+0.4% MoM forecast), JOLTS Job Openings, and the critical University of Michigan Preliminary Sentiment reading (forecast: 55.0 vs 56.6 prior). Combined with CFTC Commitment of Traders data for silver and copper releasing at 3:30 PM ET, today has the ingredients for multiple intraday volatility waves.
High-Impact Events: Today & Next 24 Hours
US GDP Second Estimate + Core PCE + JOLTS + Michigan Sentiment all drop today. UK GDP is the key European data point. Any surprise from these releases will amplify already-elevated commodity volatility.
| Time (ET) | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Commodity Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2:00 AM | 🇬🇧 UK | Monthly GDP (Jan) | +0.1% MoM | −0.1% | HIGH | Weak read → GBP falls, lifts commodities in GBP terms |
| 7:30 AM | 🇺🇸 USA | 🔴 GDP Q4 2025 — 2nd Estimate | 1.4% ann. | 1.4% ann. | HIGH | Beat → USD strength, Gold pressure; Miss → USD weakness, Gold/Silver bid |
| 7:30 AM | 🇺🇸 USA | 🔴 Core PCE Price Index MoM | +0.4% | +0.4% | HIGH | Hotter print → hawkish Fed; delays cuts; bearish for metals |
| 8:30 AM | 🇺🇸 USA | Durable Goods Orders MoM | — | 3.1% | MED | Copper demand proxy; strong data supportive of industrial metals |
| 9:00 AM | 🇺🇸 USA | 🔴 Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 55.0 | 56.6 | HIGH | Below 55 → stagflation fears rise; bullish gold/silver; 5-yr inflation critical |
| 9:00 AM | 🇺🇸 USA | Michigan 5-Yr Inflation Expectations | ~3.3% | 3.3% | MED | Upside surprise sharply bullish for gold; signals cuts remain distant |
| 10:00 AM | 🇺🇸 USA | JOLTS Job Openings | ~7.6M | 7.7M | HIGH | High openings = tight labor = delayed cuts; USD firm, metals mixed |
| 1:00 PM | 🇺🇸 USA | Baker Hughes Rig Count | — | 411 (oil) | MED | Rising rigs = more US supply; bearish for WTI near-term |
| 3:30 PM | 🇺🇸 USA | CFTC Silver Speculative Positions | — | 23.3K net long | MED | Rising net longs validate silver bull; positioning insight |
| 3:30 PM | 🇺🇸 USA | CFTC Copper Speculative Positions | — | 57.7K net long | MED | High net longs = bullish but overbought caution; crowded trade risk |
March 18 is the next major market-defining date: US PPI (Feb) + Federal Reserve Rate Decision + Press Conference. With 95.6% of market participants expecting rates to hold at 3.50–3.75%, the real market-moving question will be Fed Chair Powell’s tone on oil-driven inflation — will he signal delays to rate cuts, or look through the supply-shock transient? That answer determines the next 6 weeks of commodity direction.
5 Major Pairs: Charts, Patterns & Trade Setups
| Current Price | $5,105.79 |
| Session Range | $5,072 – $5,128 |
| ATH (2026) | $5,595.46 |
| Fibonacci 0.236 | $5,192 |
| Fibonacci 0.382 | $4,941 |
| Ascending Trendline | $5,084–$5,096 |
| Critical Support | $5,050–$5,084 |
| Deeper Support | $4,950–$5,000 |
| Resistance Zone | $5,175–$5,230 |
| Trend (Daily) | Corrective — within LT uptrend |
| Trend (Weekly) | Bullish flag $4,950–$5,350 |
| MACD (D1) | Negative, bearish bars increasing |
| RSI (D1) | ~44 — Neutral |
| RSI (Weekly) | Above 50 — Slowing |
| H4 Stochastic | Turning from oversold |
| ADX | Declining — weak trend |
| 60-Week MA | Well below price — bull intact |
| PBOC Accumulation | Ongoing structural demand |
Gold is navigating a classic stagflationary setup where oil’s rise as a geopolitical supply shock (not demand-driven) creates dual tailwinds: rising inflation expectations (gold positive) + signaling economic fragility (also gold positive). The correction from $5,595 is healthy and constructive.
USD strengthening (DXY ~97.57, second consecutive weekly gain) remains the primary near-term headwind. However, PBOC and central bank accumulation underpins structural demand. JPMorgan base case: $6,300/oz. Bull scenario: $8,000+/oz.
Critical pivot: $5,084 ascending trendline. Hold → Scenario A. Break → Scenario B.
| Current Price | $3.274 |
| Fib 0 (Cycle Low) | $2.796 |
| Fib 0.236 | $3.474 |
| Fib 0.382 | $3.820 |
| Fib 0.500 | $4.282 |
| Fib 0.618 | $4.571 |
| Fib 0.786 | $5.054 |
| Fib 1.0 (Cycle High) | $5.669 |
| Extension 1.618 | $7.444 |
| Trend (Daily) | Recovery from $2.80 lows |
| Key Support | $3.00 / $3.038 |
| Key Resistance | $3.474 (Fib 0.236) |
| RSI (Daily) | ~51 — Neutral recovering |
| RSI (Signal) | ~44.45 |
| EMAs | Price below declining EMAs |
| Pattern | Descending channel — recovery attempt |
| Hormuz Driver | LNG supply disruption premium |
| Current Price | $82.95 |
| ATH (Jan 29) | $121.636 |
| Fib 0 (Cycle Low) | $44.85 |
| Fib 0.236 | $103.16 |
| Fib 0.382 | $92.02 |
| Fib 0.5 | $83.00 (near price!) |
| Fib 0.618 | $74.00 |
| VC PMI Mean | $83.80 |
| Critical Support | $78.50–$80.00 |
| Trend (Daily) | Correction within primary bull |
| Trend (Weekly) | Strong bull; correction healthy |
| RSI (Daily) | ~42 — Near oversold |
| MACD (Daily) | Bearish but flattening |
| H4 Pattern | Consolidation box $81.50–$84.50 |
| H4 Stochastic | Oversold — potential bounce |
| Gold/Silver Ratio | ~61:1 (not extreme) |
| CFTC Net Long | 23.3K (watch 3:30 PM today) |
| YTD Move | +130%+ (2025 bull) |
Silver’s 130%+ gain in 2025 driven by solar panels, EV manufacturing, and AI data centers. Structural demand distinct from gold’s purely monetary role. J.P. Morgan 2026 avg of $81/oz already exceeded — analysts underestimating industrial tailwinds. CFTC data at 3:30 PM ET today is the critical confirmation catalyst.
| Current Price | $5.80980/lb (4H) |
| Comex HG | $6.06/lb |
| LME Jan High | $13,238/ton |
| Fib 0 (Base) | $5.65355 |
| Fib 0.236 | $5.893 |
| Fib 0.382 | $5.848 (price zone) |
| Fib 0.618 | $5.779 |
| Key Support (LT) | $5.85 / $5.50 |
| Resistance | $6.20 / $6.50+ |
| Trend (Monthly) | Primary uptrend; breakout above $5.50 |
| Trend (Daily) | Higher highs, higher lows |
| Trend (H4) | Steady grind; institutional accumulation |
| ADX | ~40 — Strong trend (+DI > −DI) |
| RSI (Daily) | ~65–68 (no divergence) |
| Bollinger Band | Hugging upper band |
| MACD (Daily) | Positive; histogram contracting |
| CFTC Net Long | 57.7K — Elevated |
| Citi/JPM Targets | $13,000–$15,000/ton |
Copper is the highest-conviction structural trade in this report — the bull case doesn’t depend on geopolitics or Fed policy alone, but on a genuine multi-year supply deficit meeting AI and EV demand growth.
AI data centers consume 10× the electrical infrastructure of traditional facilities. Combined with EV manufacturing, smart grids, and renewable energy installations — and mines requiring 10–15 years to develop — the 2026 deficit of 1 million metric tons is just the beginning.
Capital is rotating from expensive gold/silver into copper as institutions seek structural growth exposure. Freeport-McMoRan continued outperformance confirms institutional conviction.
Cross-Commodity Intelligence Summary
| Commodity | Price | 24H | Technical Signal | Key Pattern | Primary Driver | Watch Level | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 Gold (XAU/USD) | $5,105.79 | ▼ Corrective | Daily bearish; H4 contracting | Hammer $5,084; Sym. Triangle | USD strength + rate delay | $5,084 / $5,100 | ST Bearish/MT Bull |
| ⚡ Natural Gas | $3.274 | ▲ Rising | Above $3.00 support; recovering | Descending channel breakout | Hormuz LNG disruption | $3.00 / $3.474 | Cautious Bull |
| ⬜ Silver (XAG/USD) | $82.95 | ▲ Stabilising | Ascending channel; near VC PMI | Rising wedge forming | Industrial + safe-haven | $80.00 / $83.80 | Structural Bull |
| 🔴 Copper (HG) | $6.06/lb | ▲ Trending | ADX 40; upper BB; +DI > −DI | Three white soldiers | AI infra + EV + 1MT deficit | $5.85 / $6.20 | Strong Bull ★ |
| 🛢 WTI Crude | $96.11 | ▲ Recovery | Death cross warning; $97.89 R | Shooting Star $110; Engulf $90 | Hormuz / IEA reserves | $90.00 / $97.89 | Geo-Driven |
| 🔵 Brent Crude | ~$99.60 | ▲ Recovery | Near $100 psychological R | Long upper wick from $119 | Hormuz closure / IEA | $92 / $100 | Highly Volatile |
| Commodity | Entry Scenario A | Entry Scenario B | Stop Loss | TP1 | TP2 | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (Long Bounce) | $5,084–$5,100 | — | $5,048 | $5,175 | $5,230 | Data Dependent |
| Natural Gas (Long) | $3.00–$3.04 | — | $2.85 | $3.474 | $3.820 | Medium |
| Silver (Long Dip) | $82.00–$82.50 | $79.50 (deeper) | $79.50 | $87.77 | $90.50 | High (structural) |
| Copper (Long) ★ | $5.95–$6.00 | $5.85–$5.90 (dip) | $5.82 / $5.72 | $6.20 | $6.50 | Highest ★ |
The Bigger Picture: What This Market Is Really Telling You
What we’re watching in commodity markets right now is genuinely unprecedented in recent history. The combination of a Middle East conflict that has directly disrupted one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, a U.S. Federal Reserve caught between oil-driven inflation and slowing growth, and a structural commodity supercycle driven by the AI and energy transition megatrends — this is not a normal market environment.
The gold/oil relationship is doing something interesting: normally, higher oil creates dollar-positive, anti-gold inflation dynamics. But this time, oil’s rise is a geopolitical supply shock, not demand-driven. That means it raises inflation expectations (gold positive) while simultaneously signaling economic fragility (also gold positive). Gold is behaving as the “ultimate stagflation hedge,” absorbing dual tailwinds that normally conflict.
Silver’s role is equally fascinating — it sits at the intersection of safe-haven demand and the most explosive structural growth theme in commodity markets (electrification). Its 130%+ gain in 2025 was one of the most powerful commodity bull runs in modern history. The current correction to $82–$83 from $121 is healthy and constructive. There’s genuine institutional support below $80, and if gold resumes its rally, silver historically accelerates.
Every AI data center, every EV, every smart grid upgrade, and every renewable energy installation needs copper — and mines take 10–15 years to develop. The 2026 supply deficit of 1 million metric tons is just the beginning of a multi-decade structural bull market. Copper is where gold was in 2020 — the structural case is almost irrefutable, and investors are just starting to rotate.
For the week ahead, March 18 is the next major catalyst: PPI data and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. With 95.6% of market participants expecting rates to hold at 3.50–3.75%, the real market-moving question will be Fed Chair tone on inflation and the oil shock — will Powell signal that energy-driven inflation delays cuts further, or signal willingness to look through transient supply-shock inflation? That answer determines the next 6 weeks of commodity direction.
Trader Questions, Answered
Trade the Extremes,
Respect the Structure
March 13, 2026 offers experienced commodity traders a rare convergence of structural bull markets, geopolitical shock volatility, and critical macro data all arriving in a single session. Gold holds its longer-term bull case above $5,050 while correcting short-term. Natural Gas benefits from direct LNG supply disruption via the Hormuz closure — a real structural bid. Silver’s correction from $121 ATH to $82–$83 is approaching exhaustion given its industrial/safe-haven dual role. And Copper is the highest-conviction structural trade: a genuine multi-year supply deficit meeting explosive AI and EV demand means every significant dip is a buying opportunity.
Stay disciplined, size appropriately for extreme volatility, and let today’s economic data — GDP, Core PCE, JOLTS, Michigan Sentiment — guide your intraday bias before committing to multi-day positions.
