The answer is: yes, but sized down and with trail stops in place. The oil long thesis (Signals 01 and 02) is driven by the Hormuz supply shock, not by Fed policy. The FOMC decision does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, oil’s fundamental upside case is independent of tonight’s rate decision.

However, the FOMC creates short-term volatility that could temporarily hit trail stops. The recommended approach is: take 25–30% partial profits ahead of 19:00 GMT (WTI at $100, Brent at $113.50), then let remaining position ride with trail stops (WTI $94, Brent $108). If FOMC is neutral-to-dovish, USD softens, oil gets a secondary bid and the position benefits. If hawkish, the partial profit-taking acts as insurance. Do not close the entire position — the Hormuz story is not resolved. This is educational market analysis — not personal financial advice.

Gold at $4,626 (−1.45%) while Brent is at $113.47 (+5.57%) appears paradoxical, but the mechanism is clear: higher oil → higher inflation expectations → higher nominal interest rates → higher real yields → lower gold price. Gold is a non-yielding asset. When real yields rise (as they are today, with the 10Y US Treasury approaching 4.72%), the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, suppressing the price.

The Hormuz disruption is a commodity supply shock, not a systemic financial crisis. Gold surges on systemic risk (banking crises, currency crises, deflation scares). Oil is performing the geopolitical safe-haven function today. Gold will become relevant again if: (1) the US enters recession (stagflation scenario), (2) the Fed actually pivots to rate cuts, or (3) the conflict escalates to involve non-Iranian state actors. The $4,580–4,600 zone remains a structural buying opportunity for medium-term gold bulls — but the near-term flow is: oil beats gold on geopolitical risk today. CFD trading involves significant risk.

Kevin Warsh, nominated to succeed Jerome Powell on May 15, 2026, is widely perceived as more hawkish than Powell. Warsh has historically been a vocal critic of excessive Fed accommodation and has favoured tighter monetary policy in past Fed tenures. Markets are beginning to price in a regime shift: under Warsh, the bar for rate cuts would likely be higher, and the bar for rate hikes (if oil inflation persists) would be lower.

The near-term market implication: USD structurally bid (Warsh premium = tighter money = stronger dollar). This reinforces our EUR/USD short thesis (Signal 06) — even if today’s FOMC is neutral, the incoming Warsh Fed is a medium-term USD tailwind. For risk assets (equities, BTC), the Warsh premium creates a headwind unless oil prices normalise (Hormuz reopens). The transition period (May 15+) may itself cause temporary volatility as markets reprice the policy path under new leadership.

There are three cross-cutting themes across all four reports that determine the Nasdaq’s direction for the next 2–4 weeks. First: AI capital expenditure vs. AI revenue generation. Alphabet guided $175–185B in 2026 capex; Meta nearly doubled its 2025 spend. If revenue growth is not keeping pace, expect guidance cuts and Nasdaq-negative reactions. Second: consumer exposure to oil inflation. Amazon’s retail segment and Meta’s ad revenue are the most exposed to consumer spending pullback from energy cost pass-through — watch for any guidance cuts on consumer-facing revenue.

Third: Azure and AWS cloud growth as the enterprise AI barometer. If both Microsoft and Amazon confirm accelerating cloud revenue (double-digit growth with margin improvement), the AI infrastructure capex narrative is validated and Nasdaq could gap +1.5–2% tomorrow. If either misses cloud growth, expect a gap down. The consensus expectation is “good but not great” — any deviation in either direction from this expectation is the trading opportunity. Capital Street FX stocks coverage includes Mag 7 positions via CFD.

Yes — $100 WTI is one of the most psychologically and technically significant round numbers in commodity markets. It has served as major support and resistance since oil first broke above it in 2008. The current push toward $100 from the Hormuz supply shock is a fundamentally driven move, not a speculative bubble — which means the $100 level, if broken with confidence, is likely to hold (as the underlying supply disruption does not disappear).

The technical picture: a clean close above $100.50 on the daily candle would open the next measured move target of $107–108 (the WTI equivalent of Brent’s $113–115 current zone). The risk: a “sell-the-number” reaction at $100 is entirely possible — traders who bought below $95 taking profits at the round number. This is why we recommended 25% partial profit-taking at $100 in today’s EU session signal update. The fundamental bull case remains intact; the tactical risk management is around the $100 psychological ceiling. CFD trading involves significant risk — consult a Capital Street FX commodities specialist before trading.