European Session Report: Bund Yields Near 17-Year Highs, Euro Steadies Near 16-Month Lows and FTSE Bounces as Eurozone CPI and US Payrolls Loom | Technical Analysis – European Session | 02-10-2026
European Session Report: Bund Yields Near 17-Year Highs, Euro Steadies Near 16-Month Lows and FTSE Bounces as Eurozone CPI and US Payrolls Loom
European shares edged higher on Friday after a bonds-driven rout, with the STOXX 600 up 0.2% but still heading for its worst week since April. EUR/USD trades near 1.1250, GBP/USD near 1.3208, the FTSE 100 near 10,470.19 and the euro 10-year yield near 3.44%.
Silver is near $61.21, WTI near $89.27, ETH near $2,749.56 and BNB near $776. Focus: euro-area flash CPI at 09:00 GMT (consensus 3.6%), US non-farm payrolls at 12:30 GMT (consensus about +90K), French and UK bond stress and the Gulf standoff.
Prices captured around 09:30 GMT (15:02 IST)Top Stories Moving the Market
European shares try to stabilise after bond rout
The STOXX 600 is up 0.2% after its worst day in three weeks and heads for its worst week since April. Euro Stoxx 50 fell 1.48% on Thursday, the DAX 0.87%, the CAC 40 1.62% and the FTSE 100 1.68%.
Euro steadies near 16-month lows
French debt worries and a widening OAT-Bund spread pushed the euro to its weakest since early 2025 on Thursday. Flash CPI at 09:00 GMT is consensus 3.6%.
Sterling hit by gilt sell-off
30-year gilt yields touched 6%, the highest since 1998, and the 10-year gilt is near 5.4-5.45%, adding pressure ahead of the UK Budget.
Euro yields retreat from 17-year highs
The euro 10-year yield has fallen from 3.529% to 3.438%, well below this week’s peak near 3.65% and the US 10-year at roughly 5.3%. German inflation rose to 3.3% in September, its highest since December 2023.
Oil slides as Hormuz flows improve
WTI is down about 4% at $89.27 and Brent is below $97, though the unresolved US-Iran standoff keeps a risk premium in prices.
Silver steadies as gold holds near $4,200
Gold futures sit around $4,218 after an overall weekly loss. A firm dollar and high yields limit upside; weak payrolls would help.
Ether firms toward $2,800
Short liquidations of more than $120M lifted crypto earlier on Friday, but flows remain mixed ahead of the US jobs report.
BNB holds near range highs
BNB trades between about $768 and $783 today, still roughly 43% below its all-time high.
Technical Summary & Trade Ideas
EUR/USD
FX · Euro near 16-month lows as French debt and flash CPI dominate
EUR/USD trades near 1.1250 after Thursday’s slide to its lowest since early 2025, with the daily RSI near 20 deep in oversold territory. The pair broke below its rising channel and sits far under the 20-day average at 1.1460 and the 50/100-day averages near 1.1512-1.1526. Euro-area flash CPI (consensus 3.6% vs 3.3% in August) was due at 09:00 GMT, then US payrolls at 12:30 GMT. ING warned of 1.11-1.12 if French spreads widen and US data stays strong; a reclaim of 1.1300 would signal relief.
| Last1.1250 |
| Support1.1232 / 1.1200 |
| Resistance1.1300 / 1.1400 |
| 20-day SMA1.1460 |
GBP/USD
FX · Sterling pressured by gilt rout, daily RSI near oversold
GBP/USD trades near 1.3208 after breaking below its July-September rising channel. Thursday’s 30-year gilt yield of 6% (highest since 1998) and Chancellor Healey’s first Budget this month keep sterling fragile. The 20-day average at 1.3366 and the 50/100-day averages near 1.3409-1.3451 cap rallies. Payrolls decide direction: a miss can lift the pair toward 1.3300, while a strong print risks a break of 1.3181.
| Last1.3208 |
| Support1.3181 / 1.3120 |
| Resistance1.3300 / 1.3366 |
| UK 10Y gilt~5.40-5.45% |
SILVER (XAG/USD)
Metals · Stabilising below a broken triangle as dollar stays firm
Silver trades near $61.21 after breaking down through its symmetrical triangle last week and holding above Thursday’s low at $60.22. The 20-day average near $63.86-63.93 now acts as resistance. Gold holds around $4,190-4,218, below $4,230. A strong dollar and 10-year Treasury yields near 5.3% cap gains, but weak payrolls would help precious metals; a close below $60.22 opens $59.50.
| Last$61.21 |
| Support60.22 / 59.50 |
| Resistance62.00 / 63.86 |
| Gold~$4,190-4,218 |
CRUDE OIL (WTI)
Energy · Slides 4% on easing Gulf supply fears, tests channel support
WTI has dropped to $89.27 from a $93.46 open and is testing the lower edge of its July-September rising channel, with the 50-day average at 88.27 just beneath. Brent has slipped below $97 as tanker flows through Hormuz improve, though the US-Iran standoff is unresolved. A break under $88.27 targets $86.35; a rebound needs $93 and the 20-day average near $95.42.
| Last$89.27 |
| Support88.27 / 86.35 |
| Resistance93.00 / 95.42 |
| BrentBelow $97 |
FTSE 100
Indices · Tentative bounce after worst day since May
The FTSE 100 trades near 10,470.19 after Thursday’s 1.68% drop to a three-month low at the lower edge of its falling channel. The 50/100-day averages near 10,613-10,673 are the first resistance zone, and the daily RSI near 36 shows a market recovering from oversold. The STOXX 600 heads for its worst week since April. Gilt yields, sterling and oil are the swing factors; a close below 10,426 risks 10,400.
| Last10,470.19 |
| Support10,426 / 10,400 |
| Resistance10,503 / 10,613 |
| Thu close10,428 |
EU 10Y (EURO BUND YIELD)
Rates · Yield retreats from 17-year highs as bond rout eases
The euro 10-year yield has fallen to 3.438% from Thursday’s 3.529% open and is back near the 20-day average at 3.515%, which now acts as resistance. The decline pulls the yield well below this week’s 17-year high near 3.65% and eases pressure on EUR/USD. The 50-day average at 3.337% is the next support. Flash CPI and payrolls could reverse the move: a hot print revives ECB hike pricing.
| Last3.438% |
| Support3.426% / 3.337% |
| Resistance3.515% / 3.600% |
| US 10Y~5.26-5.34% |
ETH/USD
Crypto · Ether pushes against channel top near $2,800
Ether trades near $2,749.56 inside a rising channel, up about 1.6% on the day with daily RSI near 67, close to overbought. Support is today’s low at $2,696 and the 20-day average near $2,631; resistance is the $2,777 high and the channel top near $2,800-2,850. Over $120M of short liquidations supported crypto earlier on Friday, but a strong payrolls print could cap gains.
| Last$2,749.56 |
| Support2,696 / 2,631 |
| Resistance2,777 / 2,850 |
| RSI (14)67 |
BNB/USD
Crypto · Holds above the 20-day average near the range top
BNB trades near $776 above its 20-day average at $760.52 and just under the $783 session high, with a falling-resistance line near $810. A close above $783 would confirm strength toward $810; a break below $768 and then $760.5 would turn the bias neutral. BNB remains about 43% below its October 2025 high of $1,370.
| Last$776 |
| Support768.3 / 760.5 |
| Resistance783.3 / 810 |
| ATH$1,370 (Oct 2025) |
What to Expect from the Next Session
- US payrolls at 12:30 GMT (18:00 IST). Consensus is about +90K (range 35K-180K) with unemployment at 4.1%. A weak print could lift EUR/USD, GBP/USD, silver and crypto; a strong one could push EUR/USD toward 1.11-1.12.
- Euro-area flash CPI at 09:00 GMT. A reading at or above 3.6% revives ECB hike bets and Bund yields; a miss would ease pressure on French and Italian debt.
- Bonds and the Gulf. More gilt or OAT stress would hit the FTSE 100, euro and sterling. WTI is testing $88.27 support; a break targets $86.35, while Gulf escalation would revive $93-95.
What Is Moving the Market
Dollar and yields
The dollar index is near 102 and the US 10-year touched 5.34%, its highest since 2002. The yield gap to Bunds favours the dollar.
French debt and the euro
A widening OAT-Bund spread and fiscal worries pushed EUR/USD to its lowest since early 2025 and weighed on European banks.
UK gilts and sterling
30-year gilts reached 6% and the 10-year about 5.4-5.45%, driving the FTSE 100’s worst session since May ahead of the Budget.
Oil and risk assets
WTI has fallen about 4% to $89 as Hormuz flows improve, easing inflation fears, while crypto and metals trade in tight ranges ahead of payrolls.
Economic Calendar / Events
| Time | Country | Event | Result / Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu close | EU / UK | European equities | FTSE -1.68% at 10,428; DAX -0.87%; CAC -1.62% |
| Today 07:25 GMT | UK | FTSE 100 open | About 10,440; now ~10,470.19 (+0.40%) |
| Today 09:00 GMT | EZ | Flash CPI (Sep) | Consensus 3.6% vs 3.3% Aug flash; check release |
| Today 12:30 GMT | US | Non-farm payrolls (Sep) | Cons. about +90K vs 162K prior; unemployment 4.1% |
| Until Wed 7 Oct | CN | Mainland markets closed | Public holiday |
| This month | UK | Budget (Chancellor Healey) | Gilt and sterling risk |
| 28-29 Oct | US / CA | Fed and BoC decisions | Rate-hike pricing |
Summary
The European session is stabilising but fragile: EUR/USD holds near 1.1250, GBP/USD near 1.3208 and the FTSE 100 near 10,470.19, while the euro 10-year yield has eased to 3.438%. Silver trades near $61.21, WTI near $89.27, ETH near $2,749.56 and BNB near $776. Eurozone CPI (09:00 GMT) and US payrolls at 12:30 GMT set the next move.
FAQ
Q:Why is the euro near 16-month lows?
A:French fiscal concerns, a wider OAT-Bund spread and a large US-Bund yield gap have favoured the dollar.
Q:What are the key levels today?
A:EUR/USD 1.1232/1.1300, GBP/USD 1.3181/1.3300, silver $60.22/$63.86, WTI $88.27/$93.00, FTSE 10,426/10,503, EU 10Y 3.426%/3.515%, ETH $2,696/$2,777, BNB $768/$783. These are conditional references, not forecasts.
