Nasdaq 100 Holds Near Its 31,361 Record as Kospi Slides 5.4%
Weekly Indices Outlook | 12–16 October 2026
Nasdaq 100 Holds Near Its 31,361 Record as Kospi Slides 5.4%
- Weekly bias
- US over Europe
- Buy Nasdaq 100 near 30,650; sell DAX near 25,400
- Expected volatility
- High
- Bank, ASML and TSMC earnings plus US CPI
- Key event
- US CPI
- Wed 14 Oct, 16:30 GST
- Key pivot level
- 30,556
- Nasdaq 100 weekly low; dips are buyable above it
Market Overview
Global equity indices split by region. In the US, the Nasdaq 100 set a record of 31,361.37 on Tuesday, fell to 30,556.40 on Thursday when a report questioned OpenAI’s revenue, and closed at 30,883.15, up 0.24%. The Dow rose 0.93% to 51,660.18, near the top of its 50,868.09–51,770.18 range. In Europe, the DAX fell 0.57% to 25,087.27 after a two-month low of 24,792.79, while the FTSE 100 gained 0.86% to 10,552.05 after dipping to 10,367.25, its lowest since June. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 rose 1.06% to 69,030.70 but fell back from a 70,798.62 high, and the Kospi slid 5.39% to 6,625.93 in a holiday-shortened week.
Three forces shape the week of 12–16 October. Q3 earnings season opens on Tuesday with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth, followed by ASML, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday and TSMC on Thursday. US September CPI on Wednesday tests valuations with the 10-year yield near 5.29% and the Fed leaning toward another hike. Holiday closures add gap risk: Tokyo is shut on Monday for Sports Day, and Seoul reopens on Monday after missing Friday’s global rebound.
Our bias favours US indices over Europe: buying Nasdaq 100 dips near 30,650 and Dow dips near 51,150, buying the FTSE 100 near 10,460 and the Nikkei near 68,400, and selling recoveries in the DAX near 25,400 and the Kospi near 6,900. The Nasdaq 100 carries the highest conviction; the Kospi the lowest, given its reopening gap risk.
Key highlights
- Nasdaq 100 held 30,556 after a record 31,361.37. The bias is to buy dips toward 30,650, targeting 31,150 and 31,360, while 30,350 holds.
- Q3 earnings season opens on Tuesday with the big US banks; ASML reports on Wednesday and TSMC on Thursday, the key tests for the AI and chip trade.
- DAX closed at 25,087.27, below the 25,433.71 moving average, with weekly RSI at 48.99. The bias is to sell recoveries toward 25,400, targeting 24,800 and 24,500.
- Kospi fell 5.39% to 6,625.93 on foreign selling of chipmakers and reopens on Monday after missing Friday’s rebound.
- US CPI on Wednesday 14 October (16:30 GST, 12:30 GMT) is the main macro event. Consensus is +0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y, with core at +0.2% m/m.
Market Snapshot: Weekly Close, 9 October 2026
Prices are weekly closes; the Kospi closed on Thursday 8 October because Korea was shut on Friday for Hangul Day. Change and range are for the week of 5–9 October. The bar under each price marks its position between the outer support and resistance levels for the week ahead.
Nasdaq 100 NDX, United States
30,883.15
+75.22+0.24% week
Range 30,556.40–31,361.37
30,25031,800
Buy near 30,650Dow Jones US30, United States
51,660.18
+478.07+0.93% week
Range 50,868.09–51,770.18
50,50052,750
Buy near 51,150DAX 40 DE40, Germany
25,087.27
−143.93−0.57% week
Range 24,792.79–25,522.09
24,50025,800
Sell near 25,400FTSE 100 UK100, United Kingdom
10,552.05
+90.10+0.86% week
Range 10,367.25–10,602.57
10,28010,800
Buy near 10,460Nikkei 225 JP225, Japan
69,030.70
+721.46+1.06% week
Range 68,150.02–70,798.62
66,77372,832
Buy near 68,400Kospi KOSPI, South Korea
6,625.93
−377.81−5.39% week
Range 6,625.93–7,044.67
6,2607,302
Sell near 6,900- VIX
- 14.84
- Friday close
- US 10-year yield
- 5.29%
- Pressure on valuations
- US consumer sentiment
- 46.3
- Five-month low
- Q3 earnings
- 13 Oct
- Big US banks report first
Trade Setups for the Week
Six setups, ranked by conviction. Each carries a defined invalidation level: a daily close beyond the stop negates the idea. Detailed rationale follows in each index section.
| Index | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 | Long | 30,650 | 30,350 | 31,150 | 31,360 | 1.7 / 2.4 | High |
| DAX 40 | Short | 25,400 | 25,620 | 24,800 | 24,500 | 2.7 / 4.1 | Medium |
| Dow Jones | Long | 51,150 | 50,700 | 52,050 | 52,700 | 2.0 / 3.4 | Medium |
| FTSE 100 | Long | 10,460 | 10,360 | 10,650 | 10,800 | 1.9 / 3.4 | Medium |
| Nikkei 225 | Long | 68,400 | 67,400 | 70,000 | 70,800 | 1.6 / 2.4 | Medium |
| Kospi | Short | 6,900 | 7,060 | 6,550 | 6,300 | 2.2 / 3.8 | Low |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to target 1 and target 2, divided by the distance from entry to the stop. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Key Market Drivers
Four themes are expected to set direction across the major stock indices this week.
Q3 earnings season opens with banks and chips
JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth report on Tuesday, followed by ASML, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday and TSMC on Thursday. TSMC’s July and August sales were 49% higher than a year earlier. Delta missed estimates and cut guidance on Friday as its quarterly fuel bill rose 62%.
Key events: Bank results (Tue–Wed), ASML (Wed), TSMC (Thu).
The AI trade steadies after a revenue scare
The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.25% on Thursday after the Financial Times reported OpenAI’s annualised revenue topped out near $50 billion, about $20 billion short of estimates, hitting Micron, Nvidia and AI hardware stocks. A Bloomberg report that OpenAI expects $70 billion or more by year-end helped Friday’s rebound, with Microsoft and Amazon up 2.4% and 3.3%.
Key events: ASML and TSMC guidance, AI capital-spending commentary.
Bond yields keep pressure on valuations
The US 10-year yield is near 5.29%, close to a 24-year high, long-dated UK gilt yields hit multi-decade highs, and worries over French public finances pushed European shares to four-month lows midweek. US consumer sentiment fell to 46.3, a five-month low. Indices have held up at headline level, but a fresh rise in yields would raise the risk of a broader pullback, especially in Europe.
Key events: US CPI (Wed), PPI and retail sales (Thu), Fed Chair Warsh.
Regional divergence and holiday gaps
Foreign investors sold Samsung Electronics and SK hynix as the Kospi fell three sessions in a row, while the Nikkei held a weekly gain despite a 4% drop in SoftBank on Thursday. In Germany, Deutsche Telekom fell 7.9% on Friday as T-Mobile US dropped 13% on SpaceX’s move into mobile spectrum. Seoul reopens Monday after missing Friday’s rally, and Tokyo reopens Tuesday.
Key events: Monday’s Kospi open, Tuesday’s Nikkei open.
US indices closed near their highs while Europe and Korea carried the damage. Bank, ASML and TSMC results decide whether the Nasdaq 100 retests its 31,361 record or slips back to 30,556.
US CPI Scenario Analysis
Consensus for September CPI is +0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y, with core at about +0.2% m/m and 2.4–2.5% y/y. Select a scenario to view the expected path for each index, with levels.
Above consensus: headline above +0.6% m/m or core above +0.2%
Yields rise, valuations come under pressure, and growth and rate-sensitive indices lead the decline.
- Nasdaq 10030,556, then 30,250
- Dow Jones50,868, then 50,500
- DAX 4024,793, then 24,500
- FTSE 10010,367, then 10,280
- Nikkei 22568,150, then 66,773
- Kospi6,500, then 6,260
Below consensus: core at or below +0.2% m/m
Yields ease from near 24-year highs, and indices extend toward their recent highs.
- Nasdaq 10031,361, then 31,800
- Dow Jones52,050–52,285, then 52,750
- DAX 4025,434, then 25,800
- FTSE 10010,603, then 10,800
- Nikkei 22570,799, then 72,832
- Kospi7,045, then 7,302
Asia: holiday gap risk
The Kospi was closed on Friday while global indices rallied, so it may open Monday above its 6,625.93 close; the sell setup uses a bounce toward 6,900 as entry rather than chasing weakness. Tokyo is closed on Monday and will react on Tuesday to two US sessions, so the Nikkei can gap away from 69,030.70.
Nasdaq 100 | NDX, United States
Nasdaq 100 Outlook: Record 31,361 Within Reach While 30,556 Holds
30,883.15 +75.22 (+0.24%) week Range 30,556.40–31,361.37
Outlook: Bullish above 30,350. The Nasdaq 100 opened the week at 30,812.76, set a record of 31,361.37 on Tuesday, fell to 30,556.40 on Thursday and closed at 30,883.15. The preferred approach is to buy a dip to 30,650 with a stop at 30,350, targeting 31,150 and the 31,360 record.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 30,250
- Support 1
- 30,556
- Resistance 1
- 31,361
- Resistance 2
- 31,800
Weekly chart structure
- The Nasdaq 100 is trading in the upper half of a rising channel that began at the March 2026 low near 22,800.
- Price holds above all three moving averages, at 29,598.37, 27,232.66 and 24,520.35, confirming a firm uptrend.
- Last week’s candle set a record at 31,361.37 and held a higher low at 30,556.40, extending the sequence of higher lows since late September.
- Weekly RSI is 65.02, above its 59.58 signal line: momentum is strong without reaching overbought territory.
Key technical levels
Support is 30,556, Thursday’s low, then 30,250, the late-September lows; the 29,598 moving average lies below. A daily close below 30,250 would break the higher-low sequence. Resistance is 31,361, the record, then 31,800, the next extension target. A weekly close above 31,361 would confirm a new leg higher.
Fundamental drivers
AI sentiment
Thursday’s drop followed a Financial Times report that OpenAI’s annualised revenue topped out near $50 billion, about $20 billion short of estimates, which hit Micron, Nvidia and AI hardware stocks. A Bloomberg report that OpenAI expects $70 billion or more by year-end helped Friday’s recovery.
Earnings
ASML on Wednesday and TSMC on Thursday are the key AI supply-chain tests. TSMC’s July and August sales were 49% higher than a year earlier in local currency, already ahead of the pace needed to reach the middle of its guidance.
Nasdaq 100 trade setup
Long High conviction- Entry
- 30,650
- Stop loss
- 30,350
- Target 1
- 31,150
- Target 2
- 31,360
Risk 300 points. Reward:risk 1.7 to target 1, 2.4 to target 2.
Rationale: The setup is aligned with the rising channel, strong momentum and supportive chip earnings flow. Entry at 30,650 sits just above the 30,556 weekly low, with the stop above the 30,250 late-September lows. Target 2 is the 31,361 record.
Invalidation: A daily close below 30,350. Weak ASML or TSMC guidance, or a CPI print above consensus, are the main risks.
Dow Jones | US30, United States
Dow Jones Outlook: Triangle Support at 50,868 Holds Into Bank Earnings
51,660.18 +478.07 (+0.93%) week Range 50,868.09–51,770.18
Outlook: Constructive above 50,700. The Dow opened the week at 51,204.12, dipped to 50,868.09 and rallied to close at 51,660.18, near the 51,770.18 weekly high, after a 423-point Friday gain. The preferred approach is to buy a dip to 51,150 with a stop at 50,700, targeting 52,050 and 52,700.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 50,500
- Support 1
- 50,868
- Resistance 1
- 52,285
- Resistance 2
- 52,750
Weekly chart structure
- The Dow is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle, with a falling trendline from the August 2026 high at 54,744.33 and a rising trendline from the March 2026 low near 45,000.
- Last week’s candle tested the lower trendline at 50,868.09 and closed near its high, a constructive reversal.
- The moving average at 52,284.93 caps the upside, while the average at 49,904.14 sits below the triangle support.
- Weekly RSI is 51.94, below its 62.34 signal line: momentum has reset to neutral after the pullback from the August high.
Key technical levels
Support is 50,868, the weekly low on the triangle trendline, then 50,500. A daily close below 50,500 would break the triangle and expose the 49,904 moving average. Resistance is 52,050, the 21 September close, and 52,285, the moving average, then 52,750, the mid-September high. A weekly close above 52,750 would open the 54,744 high.
Fundamental drivers
Bank earnings
Dow members JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth report on Tuesday. Morgan Stanley upgraded Wells Fargo to Overweight before its results, expecting lending margins to stabilise.
Risks
Delta missed estimates and cut guidance as its quarterly fuel bill rose 62% from a year earlier, a reminder of the energy drag on margins. University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 46.3, a five-month low.
Dow Jones trade setup
Long Medium conviction- Entry
- 51,150
- Stop loss
- 50,700
- Target 1
- 52,050
- Target 2
- 52,700
Risk 450 points. Reward:risk 2.0 to target 1, 3.4 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry at 51,150 buys a pullback toward the 51,204 weekly open, with the stop below the 50,868 weekly low and triangle support. Target 1 is the 52,050 September close, just below the 52,285 moving average; target 2 sits below the 52,750 September high.
Invalidation: A daily close below 50,700. Disappointing bank results on Tuesday are the main risk.
DAX 40 | DE40, Germany
DAX 40 Outlook: Weekly Loss Leaves the Index Below 25,434 Resistance
25,087.27 −143.93 (−0.57%) week Range 24,792.79–25,522.09
Outlook: Bearish below 25,620. The DAX opened the week at 25,251.39, peaked at 25,522.09 on Tuesday, fell to a two-month low of 24,792.79 on Thursday and recovered to 25,087.27. The preferred approach is to sell a recovery to 25,400 with a stop at 25,620, targeting 24,800 and 24,500.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 24,500
- Support 1
- 24,793
- Resistance 1
- 25,434
- Resistance 2
- 25,800
Weekly chart structure
- The DAX remains within a rising channel from the March 2026 low near 22,000, but has fallen from the upper boundary to the lower half since the August high.
- Price closed below the moving average at 25,433.71, which now acts as resistance; the average at 24,671.25 sits just below Thursday’s low.
- The long-term moving average at 23,627.99 aligns with the lower channel boundary, the deeper support.
- Weekly RSI is 48.99, below 50 and its 56.17 signal line, confirming fading momentum.
Key technical levels
Support is 24,793, Thursday’s two-month low, then 24,671, the moving average, and 24,500. A daily close below 24,500 would expose the lower channel boundary. Resistance is 25,434, the moving average, then 25,522, the weekly high, and 25,800. A daily close above 25,800 would cancel the bearish view.
Fundamental drivers
Yields and France
Worries over French public finances and large debt-swap deals pushed European shares to four-month lows midweek, while higher Bund and Treasury yields hurt growth stocks. Friday’s rebound was led by SAP (+3.7%) and Siemens (+3.0%).
Stock and policy news
Deutsche Telekom fell 7.9% on Friday as its US unit T-Mobile US dropped 13% on SpaceX’s move into mobile spectrum. ECB President Lagarde speaks late Tuesday (US time) and on Wednesday morning; any hint of tighter policy would add pressure. ASML’s results on Wednesday matter for European technology.
DAX 40 trade setup
Short Medium conviction- Entry
- 25,400
- Stop loss
- 25,620
- Target 1
- 24,800
- Target 2
- 24,500
Risk 220 points. Reward:risk 2.7 to target 1, 4.1 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry at 25,400 sells a recovery into the 25,433.71 moving average, with the stop above the 25,522.09 weekly high. Target 1 is the 24,793 weekly low; target 2 is 24,500, below the 24,671 moving average.
Invalidation: A daily close above 25,620. A soft CPI print with lower yields, or strong ASML results, would raise the risk of a short squeeze.
FTSE 100 | UK100, United Kingdom
FTSE 100 Outlook: Miners Lift the Index Off the 10,339 Moving Average
10,552.05 +90.10 (+0.86%) week Range 10,367.25–10,602.57
Outlook: Constructive above 10,360. The FTSE 100 opened the week at 10,462.38, fell to 10,367.25, its lowest since June, then rallied to 10,602.57 and closed at 10,552.05. The preferred approach is to buy a dip to 10,460 with a stop at 10,360, targeting 10,650 and 10,800.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 10,280
- Support 1
- 10,367
- Resistance 1
- 10,603
- Resistance 2
- 10,800
Weekly chart structure
- The FTSE 100 is trading within an ascending triangle: a near-flat ceiling around 10,990 since February 2026 and a rising trendline from the March low near 9,700.
- Last week’s candle tested the rising trendline and the moving average at 10,339.02, then closed near its high, a constructive reversal.
- The moving average at 10,632.16 sits just above the 10,602.57 weekly high and is the first barrier; the long-term average at 9,539.80 lies well below.
- Weekly RSI is 50.45, below its 57.52 signal line: momentum is neutral after the pullback.
Key technical levels
Support is 10,367, the weekly low, then 10,339, the moving average, and 10,280. A daily close below 10,280 would break the triangle support. Resistance is 10,603, the weekly high, then 10,632, the moving average, and 10,800. The 52-week high at 10,989.50 is the ceiling of the triangle.
Fundamental drivers
Sector drivers
Miners led Friday’s 1.06% rally, with Antofagasta, Fresnillo, Glencore and Anglo American up strongly as precious and industrial metals rose. Banks have lagged as long-dated gilt yields hit multi-decade highs and UK swaps price more than 100 basis points of Bank of England hikes by the end of 2027.
Company and data news
BP’s Q3 trading statement, Rio Tinto’s Q3 operations update and Whitbread’s half-year results are due on Tuesday. UK August GDP on Thursday is expected at −0.1% m/m, and Governor Bailey speaks several times.
FTSE 100 trade setup
Long Medium conviction- Entry
- 10,460
- Stop loss
- 10,360
- Target 1
- 10,650
- Target 2
- 10,800
Risk 100 points. Reward:risk 1.9 to target 1, 3.4 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry at 10,460 retests the 10,462.38 weekly open, with the stop just below the 10,367.25 weekly low. Target 1 clears the 10,632 moving average; target 2 is 10,800.
Invalidation: A daily close below 10,360. A weak UK GDP print or a fresh jump in gilt yields are the main risks.
Nikkei 225 | JP225, Japan
Nikkei 225 Outlook: Triangle Breakout Attempt Stalls Below 70,799
69,030.70 +721.46 (+1.06%) week Range 68,150.02–70,798.62
Outlook: Constructive above 67,400. The Nikkei opened the week at 69,113.74, reached 70,798.62 on Tuesday, fell to 68,150.02 on Friday and closed at 69,030.70, about 5% below its 72,831.73 record. The preferred approach is to buy a dip to 68,400 with a stop at 67,400, targeting 70,000 and 70,800.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 66,773
- Support 1
- 68,150
- Resistance 1
- 70,799
- Resistance 2
- 72,832
Weekly chart structure
- The Nikkei has consolidated within a symmetrical triangle since the June 2026 record at 72,831.73, with a rising trendline from the April low near 51,000.
- Last week’s high at 70,798.62 broke above the falling trendline intraweek, but the close at 69,030.70 left the breakout unconfirmed.
- The moving average at 66,772.94 is the first major support; the averages at 59,412.89 and 49,630.43 lie well below.
- Weekly RSI is 62.87, above its 59.29 signal line, showing improving momentum.
Key technical levels
Support is 68,150, Friday’s low, then 67,000, the 1 October breakout area, and 66,773, the moving average. A daily close below 67,000 would cancel the long idea. Resistance is 70,799, the weekly high, then 72,832, the record. A weekly close above 70,799 would confirm the triangle breakout.
Fundamental drivers
Chip and AI weighting
AI and chip heavyweights such as SoftBank, Advantest and Tokyo Electron carry the index, so Thursday’s OpenAI revenue scare and Friday’s US technology rebound set the tone. SoftBank fell more than 4% on Thursday. TSMC’s results on Thursday are the main sector test for Tokyo’s chip names.
Calendar
Tokyo is closed on Monday for Sports Day, so it will react on Tuesday to weekend headlines and two US sessions. Higher US yields weigh on rate-sensitive stocks.
Nikkei 225 trade setup
Long Medium conviction- Entry
- 68,400
- Stop loss
- 67,400
- Target 1
- 70,000
- Target 2
- 70,800
Risk 1,000 points. Reward:risk 1.6 to target 1, 2.4 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry at 68,400 sits just above the 68,150 weekly low, with the stop above the 66,773 moving average. Target 1 is the 70,000 round number; target 2 is the 70,799 weekly high.
Invalidation: A daily close below 67,000. Tuesday’s reopening can gap through entry, so orders should account for the holiday.
Kospi | KOSPI, South Korea
Kospi Outlook: Rejection at 7,302 Leaves the Bias Lower Below 7,060
6,625.93 −377.81 (−5.39%) week Range 6,625.93–7,044.67
Outlook: Bearish below 7,060. The Kospi opened the shortened week at 7,044.67, its high, and fell for three straight sessions to close at 6,625.93, its low, on Thursday 8 October. The preferred approach is to sell a recovery to 6,900 with a stop at 7,060, targeting 6,550 and 6,300.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 6,260
- Support 1
- 6,500
- Resistance 1
- 7,045
- Resistance 2
- 7,302
Weekly chart structure
- The Kospi has fallen within a descending trendline from the June 2026 record at 9,385.59; last week’s attempt to break above it failed at 7,044.67.
- Price closed below the moving average at 7,301.77, which now acts as resistance alongside the trendline.
- The moving average at 6,090.78 and the rising trendline from the November 2025 low near 3,850 are the deeper supports.
- Weekly RSI is 48.07, below 50 and its 51.43 signal line, confirming weakening momentum.
Key technical levels
Support is 6,500, then 6,260, the early-August lows; the 6,091 moving average lies below. Resistance is 7,045, the weekly high at the trendline, then 7,302, the moving average. A daily close above 7,150 would cancel the bearish view. The index is about 29% below its June record but still about 84% higher than a year ago.
Fundamental drivers
Foreign selling
Inflation worries and bets on further US rate hikes drove foreign investors to sell. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix each fell more than 2% on Thursday, the day Samsung released preliminary Q3 results.
Reopening risk
Korea was closed on Friday while global indices rallied, so Monday may open firmer. TSMC’s results and chip guidance on Thursday are the main sector catalyst.
Kospi trade setup
Short Low conviction- Entry
- 6,900
- Stop loss
- 7,060
- Target 1
- 6,550
- Target 2
- 6,300
Risk 160 points. Reward:risk 2.2 to target 1, 3.8 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry at 6,900 sells a reopening bounce below the 7,044.67 weekly high and the descending trendline, with the stop above that high. Target 1 is just above 6,500; target 2 sits above the 6,260 August lows.
Invalidation: A daily close above 7,060. Conviction is low because Monday’s reopening gap could carry through entry.
Earnings and Economic Calendar: 12–16 October 2026
Events with the potential to move the indices in this report. Times are Gulf Standard Time (GST) with GMT shown beneath; company report times are approximate. Context gives the level each event puts in play.
| Date | Event | Market | Impact | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All day | Japan closed (Sports Day); US bond market closed, US stocks open | Nikkei 225, Kospi | Medium | Seoul reopens after missing Friday’s rally from 6,625.93; Tokyo reacts on Tuesday from 69,030.70. |
| 10:00 GST 06:00 GMT | BP Q3 trading statement, Rio Tinto Q3 operations, Whitbread half-year results | FTSE 100 | Medium | Energy and mining updates decide whether the index holds 10,367. |
| Before US open | Q3 results: JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth | Dow Jones | High | Strong results support a run toward 52,050; misses expose 50,868. |
| 09:30 GST 05:30 GMT | BoE Governor Bailey speaks (also Thursday) | FTSE 100 | Medium | A hawkish tone lifts gilt yields and pressures UK banks toward 10,367. |
| 12:30 GST 08:30 GMT | ECB President Lagarde speaks (also late Tuesday, US time) | DAX 40 | Medium | Any hint of tighter policy adds pressure toward 24,793. |
| Before US open | Q3 results: ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock | Nasdaq 100, DAX 40, Dow Jones | High | ASML guidance sets the tone for chips; a strong outlook supports a Nasdaq 100 retest of 31,361. |
| 16:30 GST 12:30 GMT | US CPI (Sep) | All indices | High | Consensus +0.6% m/m, 3.6% y/y; core +0.2% m/m. Above consensus: Nasdaq 100 toward 30,556. Below: toward 31,361. |
| 22:00 GST 18:00 GMT | Fed Beige Book | Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 | Medium | Regional growth and price pressures; reinforces or tempers the CPI reaction. |
| 10:00 GST 06:00 GMT | UK GDP (Aug): −0.1% m/m expected vs +0.4% prior | FTSE 100 | Medium | A weak print with higher gilt yields would test 10,367; a firm one supports 10,650. |
| Asia session | TSMC Q3 results | Nasdaq 100, Kospi, Nikkei 225 | High | Chip guidance decides whether the Kospi holds 6,500 and the Nikkei retests 70,799. |
| 16:30 GST 12:30 GMT | US PPI (+0.5% m/m), retail sales (+0.3%), jobless claims (195K), Philadelphia Fed (26.5) | All indices | High | Second inflation test; confirms or offsets the CPI signal for the Dow around 51,660. |
| 07:30 GST 03:30 GMT | Fed Chair Warsh speaks (Thursday evening, US time) | All indices | High | Rate-path signals land during Asian hours, so the Nikkei and Kospi react first. |
| 16:30 GST 12:30 GMT | US import and export prices (Sep) | Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 | Medium | Final inflation signal before the weekly close. |
Conclusion
Earnings and inflation data drive the week. US indices closed near their highs while Europe and Korea carried the damage from higher bond yields. A CPI print above consensus would likely lift yields and point the Nasdaq 100 toward 30,556, the Dow toward 50,868, the DAX toward 24,793 and the Kospi toward 6,500. A softer core reading supports a retest of the Nasdaq 100 record at 31,361, the Dow at 52,050, the FTSE 100 at 10,603 and the Nikkei at 70,799.
By index, the Nasdaq 100 offers the clearest setup, a dip buy near 30,650 within its rising channel, with ASML and TSMC as the key tests. The Dow is supported at its triangle low of 50,868 into bank earnings, and the FTSE 100 has rebounded from its 10,339 moving average. The DAX is the cleanest sell below its 25,434 moving average, the Nikkei needs a weekly close above 70,799 to confirm its breakout, and the Kospi carries reopening gap risk after its 5.39% slide.
Our approach is to trade the market’s reaction to earnings and data rather than position ahead of them, to respect the invalidation levels defined in this report, to account for holiday gaps in Asia, and to treat every level as conditional on price confirmation.
| Index | Bias | Key level | Targets | Invalidation | Principal risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 | Buy near 30,650 | 30,556 | 31,150 / 31,360 | Below 30,350 | Weak chip guidance |
| Dow Jones | Buy near 51,150 | 50,868 | 52,050 / 52,700 | Below 50,700 | Bank earnings misses |
| DAX 40 | Sell near 25,400 | 25,434 | 24,800 / 24,500 | Above 25,620 | Soft CPI, strong ASML |
| FTSE 100 | Buy near 10,460 | 10,367 | 10,650 / 10,800 | Below 10,360 | Weak UK GDP |
| Nikkei 225 | Buy near 68,400 | 68,150 | 70,000 / 70,800 | Below 67,000 | Tuesday reopening gap |
| Kospi | Sell near 6,900 | 7,045 | 6,550 / 6,300 | Above 7,060 | Monday reopening gap |
Trade the Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, DAX 40 and other global indices with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the outlook for the Nasdaq 100 for the week of 12–16 October 2026?
The Nasdaq 100 closed at 30,883.15 after a record 31,361.37 on Tuesday and a Thursday low of 30,556.40. The bias is to buy dips toward 30,650 while 30,350 holds. Resistance is 31,361, the record, then 31,800. ASML and TSMC results and US CPI are the key tests.
What is the outlook for the Dow Jones this week?
The Dow closed at 51,660.18, up 0.93% on the week, near the top of its 50,868.09–51,770.18 range. Support is 50,868, then 50,500; resistance is 52,285, the moving average, then 52,750. Bank earnings on Tuesday and Wednesday and US CPI are the main drivers.
Why did the Kospi fall last week?
Rising inflation worries and bets on further US rate hikes drove foreign investors to sell chipmakers including Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. The Kospi fell three sessions in a row, from 7,003.74 to 6,625.93, a 5.39% decline, and was closed on Friday for Hangul Day.
Why did the DAX fall while the FTSE 100 rose?
Both hit multi-month lows on Thursday. The FTSE 100 recovered to 10,552.05 because miners rallied on Friday, while the DAX closed 0.57% lower at 25,087.27, weighed down by French debt worries, higher bond yields and a 7.9% drop in Deutsche Telekom.
When is US CPI released on 14 October 2026?
US September CPI is released on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 12:30 GMT, which is 16:30 Gulf Standard Time and 08:30 US Eastern Time. Consensus is +0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y for the headline, and about +0.2% m/m and 2.4–2.5% y/y for core.
Are stock markets open on Monday 12 October 2026?
Tokyo is closed for Sports Day and the US bond market is closed for Columbus Day, but US stock exchanges, London, Frankfurt and Seoul trade normally. Korea reopens after its Friday holiday.
