Gold Rebounds From 4,066 to 4,194 as Markets Brace for US CPI | Technical Analysis – Commodity Report | 10-10-2026
Weekly Commodity Outlook | 12–16 October 2026
Gold Recovers From 4,066 to 4,194 as Copper Climbs and Corn Slides on USDA
- Weekly bias
- Buy pullbacks
- Gold 4,140, silver 60.00, copper 6.62; corn: sell near 467
- Expected volatility
- High
- US CPI and Iran headlines
- Key event
- US CPI
- Wed 14 Oct, 16:30 GST
- Key pivot level
- 4,066
- Gold weekly low; the bullish bias holds above it
Market Overview
Commodity markets closed the week of 5–9 October mixed. Gold rebounded from a weekly low of 4,066.58 to close at 4,194.15, up 51.40 (1.24%), after a strong 30-year Treasury auction eased long-end yields. Silver held a low of 58.51 and closed at 60.78, up 0.55%. Copper rose 2.15% to 6.763, just below its weekly high of 6.809, as Chinese buyers returned from the Golden Week holiday. WTI crude swung between 86.86 and 93.20 on tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz before closing at 91.67, with Brent near 104.42. Corn was the clear underperformer, falling 4.17% from 477.54 to 460.63 after the USDA raised its yield estimate.
Two forces shape the week of 12–16 October. US September CPI on Wednesday is the principal catalyst for metals: the Federal Reserve’s hawkish minutes, a US 10-year yield near 5.29% and a Dollar Index at 102.06, near an 18-month high, leave little room for an upside inflation surprise. In energy, the OPEC and IEA monthly reports and the progress of Iran negotiations will determine whether WTI holds above 90.00 or retests the 86.86 weekly low. US bond markets are closed on Monday for Columbus Day, which may thin early-week liquidity.
Our bias favours buying pullbacks in gold toward 4,136–4,140, silver toward 60.00 and copper toward 6.62; trading WTI within its 86.86–94.60 range; and selling corn recoveries toward 467. Copper offers the highest-conviction setup; crude oil the lowest, given the scale of headline risk.
Key highlights
- Gold closed at 4,194.15 after rebounding from 4,066.58. The bias is to buy pullbacks toward 4,136–4,140 while 4,066 holds, targeting 4,208 and 4,265.
- US CPI on Wednesday 14 October (16:30 GST, 12:30 GMT) is the key event. Consensus is +0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y for the headline, +0.2% m/m for core.
- Copper shows the strongest structure: up 2.15% to 6.763 within a rising weekly channel, with support at 6.62 and resistance at 6.81.
- WTI crude remains headline-driven at 91.67. A Hormuz agreement points to 88.60, then the 86.86 weekly low; renewed tanker attacks to 93.20, then 94.60.
- Corn fell from 477.54 to 460.63 after the USDA raised its yield estimate to 181.2 bushels per acre. The bias is to sell recoveries toward 467 while below 478.
Market Snapshot: Weekly Close, 9 October 2026
Prices are weekly closes. Change and range are for the week of 5–9 October. The bar under each price marks its position between the outer support and resistance levels for the week ahead.
Gold XAU/USD, $/oz
4,194.15
+51.40+1.24% week
Range 4,066.58–4,207.54
4,0664,265
Buy near 4,140Silver XAG/USD, $/oz
60.78
+0.33+0.55% week
Range 58.51–62.04
58.5163.72
Buy near 60.00Copper US$/lb
6.763
+0.142+2.15% week
Range 6.558–6.809
6.527.00
Buy near 6.62WTI crude US$/bbl
91.67
+0.42+0.46% week
Range 86.86–93.20
86.8694.60
Range 86.86–94.60Brent crude US$/bbl
104.42
+2.2% week
Premium of 12.75 over WTI. Hormuz flows remain about 30% below pre-war levels.
Headline-drivenCorn US¢/bu
460.63
−20.04−4.17% week
Range 454.58–491.78
449478
Sell near 467- Dollar Index
- 102.06
- Near an 18-month high
- US 10-year yield
- 5.29%
- Limits metal rallies
- Gold/silver ratio
- 69.0
- 4,194.15 ÷ 60.78
- Hormuz flows
- −30%
- vs pre-war levels
Trade Setups for the Week
Five setups, ranked by conviction. Each carries a defined invalidation level: a daily close beyond the stop negates the idea. Detailed rationale follows in each market section.
| Market | Direction | Entry | Stop | Target 1 | Target 2 | Reward:risk | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | Long | 6.62 | 6.50 | 6.81 | 7.00 | 1.6 / 3.2 | High |
| Gold | Long | 4,140 | 4,060 | 4,208 | 4,265 | 0.9 / 1.6 | Medium |
| Silver | Long | 60.00 | 58.40 | 62.04 | 63.72 | 1.3 / 2.3 | Medium |
| Corn | Short | 467 | 479 | 455 | 445 | 1.0 / 1.8 | Medium |
| WTI crude | Long | 90.20 | 88.60 | 93.20 | 94.60 | 1.9 / 2.8 | Low |
Reward:risk is the distance from entry to target 1 and target 2, divided by the distance from entry to the stop. Levels are conditional technical references, not recommendations.
Key Market Drivers
Four themes are expected to set direction across the commodity complex this week.
US inflation and the precious metals rebound
Gold rose from 4,066.58 to 4,194.15 last week after a strong 30-year Treasury auction cooled long-end yields. However, the Fed minutes showed all 19 officials supported September’s hike, with most expecting a further increase before year-end. With the US 10-year near 5.29% and the Dollar Index at 102.06, Wednesday’s CPI release will determine whether gold breaks the 4,208 weekly high or returns toward 4,066.
Key events: US CPI (Wed), PPI and retail sales (Thu), Fed Chair Warsh (Fri).
The Iran risk premium in crude oil
Nine tankers were attacked around the Strait of Hormuz in a single week, and flows remain about 30% below pre-war levels, with the US naval blockade of Iranian ports still in place. WTI traded from 86.86 up to 93.20 on those headlines. Offsetting this, the US administration ruled out a strike on Iran before the 3 November midterms, China is resuming refined fuel exports, and emergency stock releases continue to weigh on WTI.
Key events: OPEC report (Tue), IEA report (Wed), EIA inventories, Iran negotiations.
Chinese demand and the copper uptrend
Chinese buyers returned from Golden Week with renewed restocking demand, lifting copper from 6.619 to 6.763. The Yangshan premium reached a four-year high of $135 a ton, LME inventories fell to a six-week low and cash copper traded at a $97 premium to three-month. A strike at Chile’s Centinela mine threatens output from November.
Key events: China CPI, PPI and trade data (Wed).
The USDA supply revision in corn
The USDA raised the US yield estimate to 181.2 bushels per acre and ending stocks by 282 million bushels to 1.849 billion. Funds sold about 75,000 contracts in a single session, and corn fell from 477.54 to a low of 454.58. With 50–60% of the crop still unharvested, harvest supply is likely to cap recoveries below 467–478.
Key events: USDA crop progress (Tue), export sales (Thu).
The week is binary for precious metals. Wednesday’s CPI release will determine whether gold extends toward 4,208–4,265 or returns to test the 4,066 weekly low.
US CPI Scenario Analysis
Consensus for September CPI is +0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y, with core at +0.2% m/m and 2.4–2.5% y/y. Select a scenario to view the expected path for each market, with levels.
Above consensus: headline above +0.6% m/m or core above +0.2%
Yields and the dollar rise, expectations of a further Fed hike firm, and metals give back last week’s gains.
- Gold4,136, then 4,066
- Silver60.00, then 58.51
- Copper6.62, then 6.52
- WTICapped below 93.20; headlines dominate
- Corn455, then 449
Below consensus: core at or below +0.2% m/m
Yields ease, the dollar retreats from 102.06, and the metals recovery extends.
- Gold4,208, then 4,265
- Silver62.04, then 63.72
- Copper6.81; 7.00 on firm China data
- WTISupportive above 90.00; headlines dominate
- CornRecovery capped at 467–478
Crude oil: geopolitical scenario
Hormuz agreement: WTI toward 88.60, then the 86.86 weekly low. Renewed tanker attacks: WTI toward 93.20, then 94.60; a weekly close above 94.60 would reopen the 100 area. Thursday’s 4% move illustrates the speed of headline-driven repricing; positions warrant wider stops and reduced size.
Gold | XAU/USD
Gold Outlook: Rebound From 4,066 Faces 4,208 Resistance Ahead of US CPI
4,194.15 +51.40 (+1.24%) week Range 4,066.58–4,207.54
Outlook: Constructive while 4,066 holds. Gold opened the week at 4,136.50, fell to 4,066.58, then rallied to close at 4,194.15, near the weekly high of 4,207.54. The preferred approach is to buy a pullback to 4,140 with a stop at 4,060, targeting 4,208 and 4,265. Wednesday’s CPI release is expected to determine whether gold clears 4,208.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 4,066
- Support 1
- 4,136
- Resistance 1
- 4,208
- Resistance 2
- 4,265
Weekly chart structure
- Gold is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle, defined by lower highs from the January 2026 record above 5,400 and higher lows along a trendline dating back to 2025.
- Last week’s candle tested the rising trendline at 4,066.58 and closed at 4,194.15, in the upper part of its 4,066.58–4,207.54 range. The trendline is the key support for the pattern; a weekly close below 4,066 would resolve the triangle to the downside.
- Moving averages at 4,264.87 and 4,465.39 act as overhead resistance, with the long-term average at 3,827.92 well below.
- Weekly RSI is 44.30, below its 46.14 signal line. Momentum has moderated without reaching oversold conditions, leaving room for a retest of 4,066 on an upside CPI surprise.
Key technical levels
Support is 4,136, the weekly open, then 4,066, the weekly low on the triangle trendline. A daily close below 4,066 would expose 4,000 and, beyond it, the 3,828 long-term average. Resistance is 4,208, the weekly high, then 4,265, the moving average. A weekly close above 4,265 would open the 4,465 moving average and the triangle’s upper boundary.
Fundamental drivers
Rates and the US dollar
The strong 30-year auction eased long-end yields and softened the dollar, supporting the late-week rally from 4,066 to 4,194. However, the 10-year yield remains near 5.29% and the Fed minutes leaned hawkish, limiting upside above 4,208 without a supportive CPI print.
Positioning and sentiment
Gold trades well below its early-2026 record above 5,400. Buyers are defending the 4,066–4,136 zone rather than pursuing strength above 4,200. Brent near 104.42 keeps inflation, and with it rate-hike risk, in focus.
Gold trade setup
Long Medium conviction- Entry
- 4,140
- Stop loss
- 4,060
- Target 1
- 4,208
- Target 2
- 4,265
Risk 80 points. Reward:risk 0.9 to target 1, 1.6 to target 2.
Rationale: Entry at 4,140 sits just above the 4,136 weekly open, with the stop below the 4,066.58 weekly low and the triangle trendline. Target 1 is the 4,207.54 weekly high; target 2 is the 4,264.87 moving average, where partial profit is appropriate.
Invalidation: A daily close below 4,066, which would break the triangle and open 4,000. Reduced position size is advisable into the CPI release.
Silver | XAG/USD
Silver Outlook: Recovery Stalls Below 62.04 Channel Resistance
60.78 +0.33 (+0.55%) week Range 58.51–62.04
Outlook: Cautiously constructive above 58.51. Silver fell from a weekly open of 60.37 to 58.51, recovered to 62.04, and closed at 60.78. The preferred approach is to buy a pullback to 60.00 with a stop at 58.40, targeting 62.04 and 63.72. Silver typically moves about twice as much as gold on a CPI surprise, warranting smaller position size.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 58.51
- Support 1
- 60.00
- Resistance 1
- 62.04
- Resistance 2
- 63.72
Weekly chart structure
- Silver remains within a falling channel that began at the January 2026 peak near 121. Each rally since has stalled at the upper boundary, including last week’s advance to 62.04.
- Moving averages at 63.72 and 69.50 sit overhead, reinforcing 62.04–63.72 as a significant resistance zone.
- The longer-term moving average at 52.50 represents deeper support should 58.51 fail.
- Weekly RSI is 43.65, below its 45.49 signal line. The trend has not yet turned; a weekly close above 63.72 would provide the first confirmation.
Key technical levels
Support is 60.00, the round number just below the 60.37 weekly open, then 58.51, the weekly low. Resistance is 62.04, the weekly high at the channel boundary, then 63.72, the moving average. A weekly close above 63.72 would open 69.50; a close below 58.51 would expose 52.50. The gold/silver ratio stands at 69.0.
Fundamental drivers
Rates and gold
Silver tracks gold and real yields with greater volatility. It fell to 58.51 following the hawkish Fed minutes, then recovered to 62.04 as Treasury yields eased. It remains about 50% below January’s peak near 121.
Industrial demand
Firmer copper prices and Chinese restocking support the industrial component of silver demand. A Dollar Index at 102.06 and elevated real yields remain the principal headwinds.
Silver trade setup
Long Medium conviction- Entry
- 60.00
- Stop loss
- 58.40
- Target 1
- 62.04
- Target 2
- 63.72
Risk 1.60. Reward:risk 1.3 to target 1, 2.3 to target 2.
Rationale: The 60.00 entry buys a pullback below the 60.37 weekly open, with the stop under the 58.51 weekly low. Target 1 is the 62.04 weekly high at the channel boundary; target 2 is the 63.72 moving average.
Invalidation: A daily close below 58.51, which would expose the 52.50 moving average within the channel.
Copper | US$/lb
Copper Outlook: Uptrend Intact as 6.81 Breakout Comes Into Focus
6.763 +0.142 (+2.15%) week Range 6.558–6.809
Outlook: Bullish above 6.52. Copper rose from a weekly open of 6.619 to close at 6.763, just below the 6.809 weekly high, and continues to trade within a rising channel established in July 2025. The preferred approach is to buy a pullback to 6.62 with a stop at 6.50, targeting 6.81 and 7.00. A daily close above 6.81 would open 7.00.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 6.52
- Support 1
- 6.62
- Resistance 1
- 6.81
- Resistance 2
- 7.00
Weekly chart structure
- Copper has posted higher highs and higher lows within a rising channel since July 2025. The weekly structure shows no sign of trend exhaustion.
- Last week’s candle ranged from 6.558 to 6.809 and closed at 6.763, near the high, after rebounding from the moving average at 6.523, which has provided support throughout 2026.
- Deeper support lies at the moving averages at 6.054 and 5.369, both well below current levels.
- Weekly RSI is 62.41, just below its 63.20 signal line: momentum remains positive without overbought conditions, leaving scope for a test of 7.00.
Key technical levels
Support is 6.62, the weekly open, then 6.52, the moving average and the base of last week’s range. Resistance is 6.81, the weekly high, then 7.00, the psychological level near the 2026 highs. A daily close below 6.52 would expose the 6.05 moving average. LME copper settled at $14,540 a ton, up 2% on the week.
Fundamental drivers
Chinese demand
The four-year-high Yangshan premium of $135 a ton points to strong import restocking, while Chinese inventories remain low. Wednesday’s Chinese CPI, PPI and trade data will test whether that demand can carry copper above 6.81.
Supply and trade policy
LME stocks fell to a six-week low and cash traded at a $97 premium to three-month. A strike at Antofagasta’s Centinela mine threatens output from November. COMEX stocks stand at a record 711,609 tons; a slowdown in US stockpiling or a tariff decision could shift the COMEX-LME spread.
Copper trade setup
Long High conviction- Entry
- 6.62
- Stop loss
- 6.50
- Target 1
- 6.81
- Target 2
- 7.00
Risk 0.12. Reward:risk 1.6 to target 1, 3.2 to target 2.
Rationale: The setup is aligned with the weekly trend, momentum and the fundamental backdrop. Entry at 6.62 retests the weekly open, with the stop below both the 6.558 weekly low and the 6.523 moving average.
Invalidation: A daily close below 6.52, or weak Chinese trade data accompanied by a Dollar Index move above 102.06.
WTI and Brent crude | US$/bbl
Crude Oil Outlook: WTI Holds the 86.86–93.20 Range as Iran Headlines Dominate
WTI 91.67 +0.42 (+0.46%) week Brent 104.42 +2.2% week
Outlook: Range-bound with elevated headline risk. WTI opened the week at 91.77, fell to 86.86, spiked to 93.20 and closed at 91.67. The preferred approach is to buy a pullback to 90.20 with a stop at 88.60, targeting 93.20 and 94.60, at reduced position size given that a single Iran headline moved prices 4% in one session last week.
Key levels, WTI
- Support 2
- 86.86
- Support 1
- 90.00
- Resistance 1
- 93.20
- Resistance 2
- 94.60
Weekly chart structure
- WTI broke above the descending trendline from the 2026 high near 118 in August, while the rising trendline from the December 2025 low near 55 remains intact below.
- Price holds above all three moving averages, at 84.93, 79.21 and 72.83, confirming that the weekly trend remains positive.
- Last week’s candle ranged from 86.86 to 93.20 and closed at 91.67, mid-range, indicating balance between buyers and sellers.
- Weekly RSI is 54.16, above its 52.88 signal line, a neutral reading. Direction is likely to be set by headlines rather than momentum.
Key technical levels
Support is 90.00, the round number at the centre of last week’s range, then 86.86, the weekly low; a break below 86.86 would expose the 84.93 moving average. Resistance is 93.20, the weekly high, then 94.60, the late-September high. A weekly close above 94.60 would reopen the 100 area. Brent at 104.42 trades at a 12.75 premium to WTI.
Fundamental drivers
Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
Prices rose 4% on Thursday, toward the 93.20 weekly high, as tanker attacks intensified and a US Gulf storm shut in output, then eased on Friday after the US administration ruled out a strike on Iran before the midterms and cited productive talks. Hormuz flows remain about 30% below pre-war levels.
Supply offsets
China plans to resume refined fuel exports, and emergency stock releases under a 400 million barrel programme continue to weigh on WTI. The EIA raised its fourth-quarter Brent estimate to $105.
Demand outlook
In September the IEA deepened its 2026 global demand contraction estimate to 2.5 million barrels a day, citing demand destruction from high prices. A further downgrade on Wednesday would weigh on WTI toward 88.60, then 86.86.
WTI crude trade setup
Long Low conviction- Entry
- 90.20
- Stop loss
- 88.60
- Target 1
- 93.20
- Target 2
- 94.60
Risk 1.60. Reward:risk 1.9 to target 1, 2.8 to target 2.
Rationale: The weekly trend is positive and 90.00 marks the centre of last week’s range. Entry at 90.20 buys the lower half of the range rather than chasing headline spikes toward 93.20.
Invalidation: A daily close below 88.60, or a confirmed Hormuz agreement. Conviction is low because headline risk is two-sided.
Corn | US¢/bu
Corn Outlook: Bearish Below 467 After USDA Yield Revision
460.63 −20.04 (−4.17%) week Range 454.58–491.78
Outlook: Bearish below 478. Corn opened the week at 477.54, reached 491.78 before the USDA report, then fell to 454.58 and closed at 460.63. With the harvest only half complete, recoveries toward 467 are expected to attract selling. The preferred approach is to sell near 467 with a stop at 479, targeting 455 and 445.
Key levels
- Support 2
- 449
- Support 1
- 455
- Resistance 1
- 467
- Resistance 2
- 478
Weekly chart structure
- Corn broke above the descending trendline from early 2025 in August and September, peaking above 520, then fell back below it last week. Failed breakouts of this kind frequently lead to further selling.
- Price closed below the moving average at 467.46, which now acts as resistance. The next supports are the moving averages at 457.45 and 448.65.
- The rising trendline from the August 2025 low near 370 sits just below 448.65 and is the likely area for a deeper decline to stabilise.
- Weekly RSI has crossed below its 57.32 signal line to 46.69, confirming the loss of momentum.
Key technical levels
Support is 455, the 454.58 weekly low, then 449, the 448.65 moving average and rising trendline. A weekly close below 449 would expose the early-2026 range lows near 430. Resistance is 467, the 467.46 moving average, then 478, the 477.54 weekly open. A daily close above 478 would neutralise the bearish setup.
Fundamental drivers
USDA report
The USDA raised the 2026/27 yield by 2.7 bushels to 181.2 per acre and production to 16.03 billion bushels, lifting ending stocks by 282 million bushels to 1.849 billion, a stocks-to-use ratio of 11.3%. The season-average price was cut 10 cents to $4.70. Exports were raised 25 million bushels, and feed and ethanol use 50 million each.
Positioning
Funds sold about 75,000 contracts in a single session as a crowded long position was liquidated, driving corn from 491.78 to 454.58. Buying interest emerged near 455, but 50–60% of the crop remains unharvested and the yield estimate is subject to revision.
Upside risks
South American weather and a developing El Niño are the principal bullish factors. A decline in the Dollar Index from 102.06 would also support US export demand.
Corn trade setup
Short Medium conviction- Entry
- 467
- Stop loss
- 479
- Target 1
- 455
- Target 2
- 445
Risk 12 cents. Reward:risk 1.0 to target 1, 1.8 to target 2.
Rationale: The entry sells a recovery into the 467.46 moving average, now resistance, with the stop above the 477.54 weekly open. Target 1 is the 454.58 weekly low; target 2 sits below the 448.65 moving average, toward the rising trendline.
Invalidation: A daily close above 478. Following a liquidation of this scale, short-covering can be abrupt; position size should remain moderate.
Economic Calendar: 12–16 October 2026
Events with the potential to move the markets in this report. Times are Gulf Standard Time (GST) with GMT shown beneath; some release times are approximate. Context gives the level each event puts in play.
| Date | Event | Market | Impact | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All day | US Columbus Day: bond markets closed | Gold, crude oil | Medium | Thin liquidity can exaggerate moves. Iran headlines remain the main risk for WTI within 90.00–93.20. |
| Afternoon (TBC) | OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report | Crude oil | High | Supply and demand revisions after the wartime disruption. A tighter outlook supports a test of 93.20. |
| Evening (TBC) | Fed Governor Waller and President Collins speak | Gold, silver | Medium | Signals on a further rate hike. A hawkish tone pressures gold toward 4,136 and silver toward 60.00. |
| Late (TBC) | USDA Crop Progress | Corn | Medium | Harvest pace. Faster progress adds supply pressure and keeps corn below 467. |
| 05:30 GST 01:30 GMT | China CPI, PPI and trade balance (Sep) | Copper, crude oil | High | CPI expected ~0.9–1.0% y/y, PPI 3.8%. Firm imports support copper toward 6.81; weak data risks a return to 6.62. |
| 12:00 GST 08:00 GMT | IEA Oil Market Report | Crude oil | High | September cut 2026 demand by 2.5 mb/d. A further downgrade weighs on WTI toward 88.60. |
| 16:30 GST 12:30 GMT | US CPI (Sep) | All markets | High | Consensus +0.6% m/m, 3.6% y/y; core +0.2% m/m. Above consensus: gold toward 4,066. Below: gold toward 4,208–4,265. |
| 18:30 GST 14:30 GMT | EIA weekly crude inventories | Crude oil | Medium | May be delayed to Thursday after the holiday. A large draw supports WTI above 90.00. |
| 22:00 GST 18:00 GMT | Fed Beige Book | Gold | Medium | Regional activity and price pressures; reinforces or tempers the CPI reaction around 4,194. |
| 16:30 GST 12:30 GMT | US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims; USDA export sales | Gold, copper, corn | High | Confirms or offsets the CPI signal. Export sales gauge demand for corn after the fall to 460.63. |
| Evening (TBC) | Fed Chair Warsh speaks; US industrial production | Gold, silver, copper | High | Final policy signal of the week; sets direction into the weekly close relative to 4,208 in gold and 6.81 in copper. |
| 21:00 GST 17:00 GMT | Baker Hughes rig count | Crude oil | Medium | US drilling activity; a secondary supply signal for WTI into the weekly close. |
Conclusion
The week of 12–16 October is binary for precious metals. A CPI print above consensus would reinforce expectations of a further Fed hike, lift yields and the dollar, and likely return gold to 4,136 and then 4,066, and silver to 60.00 and then 58.51. A softer core reading would allow the recovery to extend toward 4,208–4,265 in gold and 62.04–63.72 in silver.
Copper has the strongest structural support in the group, with an intact weekly uptrend above 6.52 and clear evidence of Chinese restocking; Wednesday’s Chinese data will decide whether it breaks 6.81. Crude oil remains headline-driven: a confirmed Hormuz agreement points WTI toward 88.60 and the 86.86 weekly low, while renewed attacks would target 93.20, 94.60 and potentially 100, warranting wider stops and reduced size. In corn, the failed weekly breakout and harvest pressure keep the bias lower while prices hold below 478.
Our approach is to trade the market’s reaction to the data rather than position ahead of it, to respect the invalidation levels defined in this report, and to treat every level as conditional on price confirmation.
| Market | Bias | Key level | Targets | Invalidation | Principal risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Buy near 4,140 | 4,136 | 4,208 / 4,265 | Below 4,066 | CPI above consensus |
| Silver | Buy near 60.00 | 60.00 | 62.04 / 63.72 | Below 58.51 | CPI above consensus |
| Copper | Buy near 6.62 | 6.62 | 6.81 / 7.00 | Below 6.52 | Weak Chinese data |
| WTI crude | Range 86.86–94.60 | 90.00 | 93.20 / 94.60 | Below 88.60 | Hormuz agreement |
| Corn | Sell near 467 | 467 | 455 / 445 | Above 478 | Fund short-covering |
Trade gold, silver, copper, crude oil and corn CFDs with Capital Street FX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the outlook for gold for the week of 12–16 October 2026?
Gold closed the week of 5–9 October at 4,194.15, up 51.40 (1.24%), after rebounding from a weekly low of 4,066.58. The bias is to buy pullbacks toward 4,136–4,140 while 4,066 holds. Resistance is 4,208, the weekly high, then 4,265, the moving average. US CPI on 14 October is the principal catalyst: a print above consensus points back toward 4,066, while a softer core reading opens 4,208–4,265.
When is US CPI released on 14 October 2026?
US September CPI is released on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 12:30 GMT, which is 16:30 Gulf Standard Time and 08:30 US Eastern Time. Consensus is +0.6% m/m and 3.6% y/y for the headline, and +0.2% m/m and 2.4–2.5% y/y for core.
How does US CPI data affect gold and silver?
An inflation reading above consensus typically lifts Treasury yields and the US dollar, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals and weighing on gold and silver. A softer reading has the opposite effect. Silver historically moves about twice as much as gold on a CPI surprise.
What is driving crude oil prices this week?
Crude oil is driven by Iran negotiations and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, where flows remain about 30% below pre-war levels, alongside the OPEC and IEA monthly reports. WTI traded between 86.86 and 93.20 last week and closed at 91.67; Brent is near 104.42. WTI support is 90.00, then 86.86; resistance is 93.20, then 94.60.
Why did corn prices fall in the week to 9 October 2026?
The USDA raised its US corn yield estimate to 181.2 bushels per acre and ending stocks to 1.849 billion bushels, well above expectations, and funds sold about 75,000 contracts. Corn fell 20.04, or 4.17%, on the week, from 477.54 to 460.63, after touching a low of 454.58.
What are the key copper levels this week?
Copper closed at 6.763, up 2.15% on the week and near the weekly high of 6.809. Support is 6.62, the weekly open, then 6.52, the moving average. Resistance is 6.81, then 7.00. The weekly uptrend that began in July 2025 remains intact.
